← UK Government Bond 10Y overview

UK Government Bond 10Y vs United States Government Bond 10Y: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

UK Government Bond 10Y (GB-10Y.GB)

Q3 2026
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Gilt yields hit 18-year high on inflation, fiscal worries, BoE hike signals

  • Global bond selloff and fiscal worries push yields to 18-year high A worldwide bond selloff, combined with concerns over Burnham's spending plans and an £11bn budget hole, drove UK 10-year gilt yields to an 18-year high, raising borrowing costs.

    This explains the main force behind the price drop during the quarter.

  • Inflation above 4% and energy price spike keep upward pressure on yields Inflation above 4% and a nearly 20% jump in energy prices from Middle East conflict kept upward pressure on gilt yields, which exceeded 5%.

    Inflation and energy costs are key drivers of bond yields and investor demand.

  • Bank of England signals possible rate hike to 4% Bank of England signals of a possible rate hike to 4% added to upward pressure on yields, as tighter policy expectations reduce the appeal of existing bonds.

    Monetary policy expectations directly influence bond yields.

  • BoE halts gilt sales for six months, briefly easing yields The Bank of England unexpectedly halted gilt sales for six months, briefly cutting yields by 6–8 basis points and easing borrowing costs, though the overall trend remained upward.

    This was the one positive factor that temporarily lowered yields during the quarter.

September 2026
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Gilt yields surge on inflation, rate hike bets, and global selloff

  • Bank of England halts gilt sales The Bank of England unexpectedly stopped selling its gilt holdings for six months, reducing the supply of bonds. This briefly pushed yields down by 6–8 basis points, easing government borrowing costs.

    This is a new positive factor that temporarily lowered yields.

  • Rate hike fears as inflation tops 4% Inflation rose above 4%, leading the Bank of England to signal possible rate hikes. Markets now see an 80% chance of a November increase, pushing gilt yields higher as investors demand better returns.

    This is a new negative factor driving yields up.

  • Energy price surge fuels inflation Energy prices jumped nearly 20% due to Middle East conflict, intensifying inflation worries. This keeps upward pressure on yields as investors expect central banks to maintain tight policy.

    This is a new negative factor adding to inflation concerns.

  • Global bond selloff pushes yields above 5% A worldwide selloff in government bonds drove UK 10-year yields above 5%. A gilt auction saw the highest yield since 1999 at 5.383%, reflecting strong selling pressure and higher borrowing costs.

    This is a new negative factor keeping yields elevated.

Latest
▼4

BoE Officials Warn of Rate Hikes as Gilt Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

  • BoE officials signal rate hikes if energy prices stay high Deputy Governor Lombardelli and MPC member Dingra both said on 24 September that if energy prices remain elevated, the Bank will have no choice but to raise rates. Higher expected rates push gilt yields up, lowering the bond's price.

    This is a new, direct signal from BoE officials that reinforces the rate-hike narrative, pushing yields higher.

  • UK 10-year gilt auction yields highest since 1999 The UK sold 10-year gilts at an average yield of 5.383%, the highest since 1999. Strong demand (3.34x bids) shows investors are demanding higher returns, reflecting expectations of higher rates and inflation, which keeps yields elevated.

    This is a new, concrete market event showing the actual cost of UK government borrowing at multi-decade highs.

  • BoE's Mann warns inflation entrenched, fears 4% by year-end MPC member Catherine Mann said on 6 October that inflation is entrenched and could hit 4% by year-end. She has consistently voted for rate hikes. This reinforces expectations that the Bank will keep rates high or raise them, pushing gilt yields up.

    This is a new, strong warning from a key BoE official that adds to the case for higher-for-longer rates.

  • Global bond selloff pushes UK gilts above 5% A relentless global bond selloff, driven by surging US Treasury yields and inflation concerns, has pushed UK gilt yields well above 5%. HSBC notes G7 yields have risen about 1% since January. This global trend keeps UK yields elevated.

    This is a new, broad market development that directly impacts UK gilt yields through global spillovers.

▼3▲1

BoE holds rates but signals hikes, halts gilt sales

  • BoE halts gilt sales, cutting supply The Bank of England unexpectedly paused all government bond sales for six months and ended long-dated gilt sales. Less supply means less pressure on prices, so gilt yields fell 6-8 basis points. This directly lowers UK borrowing costs.

    This is a new, concrete action that reduces gilt supply and pushes yields down, a key force this period.

  • BoE signals possible rate hike as inflation tops 4% The Bank held rates at 3.75% but three members voted to hike, and it projected inflation above 4% early next year. Markets now see an 80% chance of a November hike. Higher expected rates push gilt yields up.

    This is a new signal from the BoE that shifts rate expectations upward, directly affecting gilt yields.

  • Energy price surge fuels inflation fears UK natural gas and Brent crude prices jumped nearly 20% this month due to the Middle East conflict. This raises inflation risk, making the Bank more likely to hike rates, which pushes gilt yields up.

    This is a new development this period that adds upward pressure on yields via inflation expectations.

  • Banks forecast November rate hike Barclays and JPMorgan now expect the Bank of England to raise rates in November, with more hikes possible if the Middle East conflict continues. This reinforces expectations of tighter money, pushing gilt yields up.

    This is a new analyst view that confirms upward rate pressure, influencing investor expectations for gilt yields.

August 2026
▼4

UK 10-year gilt yield hits 18-year high on global bond selloff and fiscal worries

  • Global bond selloff pushes UK yields to 2008 high A worldwide selloff in government bonds has driven the UK 10-year gilt yield to its highest since 2008. Investors are demanding higher returns for lending to governments, which pushes bond prices down and yields up. This directly raises UK borrowing costs.

    This is the core new event of the period and directly explains the yield spike.

  • Fiscal worries: Burnham's spending plans and £11bn budget hole Prime Minister Burnham's flexible fiscal rules could mean more borrowing, and the yield surge has wiped out £11bn of the government's budget headroom. Investors fear a lack of spending discipline, so they demand higher yields to hold UK debt. This adds upward pressure on gilt yields.

    It explains the UK-specific fiscal driver behind the yield rise.

  • Bank of England signals possible rate hike to 4% BOE chief economist Huw Pill said rates may need to rise to 4% to prevent persistent inflation, and Governor Bailey linked higher public debt to higher borrowing costs. Expectations of tighter monetary policy push gilt yields up, as investors demand higher returns.

    It shows a key domestic monetary policy driver for higher yields.

  • Inflation and geopolitical risks keep upward pressure on yields The Iran war has pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns. Central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which keeps bond yields high. This persistent inflation risk supports higher gilt yields.

    It explains the inflation and geopolitical backdrop that keeps yields elevated.

▼4

UK 10-year gilt yield hits 18-year high on global bond selloff and fiscal worries

  • Global bond selloff pushes UK yields to 2008 high A worldwide selloff in government bonds has driven the UK 10-year gilt yield to its highest since 2008. Investors are demanding higher returns for lending to governments, which pushes bond prices down and yields up. This directly raises UK borrowing costs.

    This is the core new event of the period and directly explains the yield spike.

  • Fiscal worries: Burnham's spending plans and £11bn budget hole Prime Minister Burnham's flexible fiscal rules could mean more borrowing, and the yield surge has wiped out £11bn of the government's budget headroom. Investors fear a lack of spending discipline, so they demand higher yields to hold UK debt. This adds upward pressure on gilt yields.

    It explains the UK-specific fiscal driver behind the yield rise.

  • Bank of England signals possible rate hike to 4% BOE chief economist Huw Pill said rates may need to rise to 4% to prevent persistent inflation, and Governor Bailey linked higher public debt to higher borrowing costs. Expectations of tighter monetary policy push gilt yields up, as investors demand higher returns.

    It shows a key domestic monetary policy driver for higher yields.

  • Inflation and geopolitical risks keep upward pressure on yields The Iran war has pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns. Central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which keeps bond yields high. This persistent inflation risk supports higher gilt yields.

    It explains the inflation and geopolitical backdrop that keeps yields elevated.

United States Government Bond 10Y (US-10Y.GB)

Q3 2026
▼3▲1

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High on Inflation, Fed Hike

  • Inflation and Fed Hike Stubborn ~3.3% inflation and Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish stance led to a September rate hike, the first in three years, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high near 5.3%.

    This is the primary driver of the yield surge, combining persistent inflation and a significant monetary policy shift.

  • Fiscal Worries and Global Selloff US debt surpassing $40 trillion amid heavy borrowing and a global bond selloff intensified fiscal concerns, adding upward pressure on yields as investors demanded higher returns.

    This highlights the fiscal and global factors that contributed to the yield increase.

  • Oil Price Spike Oil prices above $100 due to the US-Iran conflict fueled inflation fears, further driving yields higher as markets anticipated prolonged inflationary pressures.

    This shows an external geopolitical event that exacerbated inflation concerns and bond yields.

  • Counterweights Limiting Rise Weak July jobs (-23,000), soft retail sales, falling oil on ceasefire hopes, Treasury buybacks, and Fed divisions capped yield increases, with officials like Waller urging caution and political pressure for cuts.

    This provides a balanced view by highlighting factors that prevented even higher yields.

September 2026
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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High on Fed Hike, Oil Spike

  • Fed hikes rates, signals tough stance The Fed raised interest rates in September for the first time in three years, and Chair Warsh kept a tough tone on inflation. That pushed long-term bond yields up to a 19-year high near 5.3%.

    This is the main new event that drove yields sharply higher during the period.

  • Oil above $100 on US-Iran conflict Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel because of the US-Iran conflict, feeding fears of higher inflation. That added to pressure on bond yields, as investors demanded more compensation for rising prices.

    This is a new geopolitical shock that worsened inflation expectations and pushed yields up.

  • Heavy borrowing and global bond selloff US government debt passed $40 trillion, with heavy borrowing continuing. A global bond selloff made investors demand higher yields to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield even higher.

    This is a key supply and demand force that kept upward pressure on yields.

  • Counterweights: Fed doubts, trade truce Some Fed officials like Waller urged waiting before more hikes, and political pressure for cuts raised worries about Fed independence. Doubts that rate hikes can fix supply-driven inflation and a US-China trade truce extension also limited the rise.

    These are the main factors that worked against even higher yields, giving a fair picture.

Latest
▲4

Fed's first hike since 2023 and oil-driven inflation push 10-year yield to 19-year high near 5.3%

  • Fed hikes rates and signals more to come The Fed raised its key rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years, and most officials expect at least one more this year. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the single biggest new force this period: the Fed actually hiked and guided for more, directly lifting the 10-year yield.

  • Oil above $100 on Middle East conflict keeps inflation risk alive Attacks on Saudi oil facilities and shipping pushed Brent above $107 and US crude above $105. Higher energy costs feed inflation worries, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    Oil-driven inflation is the persistent backdrop that keeps upward pressure on yields even as growth data soften.

  • 10-year yield tops 5%, highest since 2007 The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007, as markets priced in a near-certain Fed hike. Rising global debt worries and heavy government borrowing add to the upward pressure on long-term yields.

    This is the milestone that shows how far and how fast the yield has moved, and it is new this period.

  • Pimco CIO says 6% on 10-year yield is 'quite possible' Pimco's chief investment officer said the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6% for the first time since 2000, citing high oil prices and expanding US public debt. That view reinforces expectations of even higher yields ahead.

    A major bond investor publicly flagging 6% is a new, concrete signal of how high yields could go.

▲2▼2

Weak jobs and softer inflation cool October hike bets, but oil and Fed minutes keep yields near 5.3%

  • Weak September jobs report slashes October rate-hike odds US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Investors now see an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady this month, down from 36% a week earlier. Lower expected rates make bonds more attractive, pulling the 10-year yield down to about 5.18%.

    This is the biggest new force this period, directly lowering rate expectations and yields.

  • Softer PCE inflation gives Fed room to pause August PCE inflation came in below forecasts, with core prices up just 0.2% for the month. That reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 42% from 70% a week earlier. Less inflation pressure means less need for the Fed to raise rates, which pulls the 10-year yield down.

    New inflation data directly reduces rate-hike expectations, a key driver of yields.

  • Fed minutes show most officials still expect another hike Minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed most officials think one more rate increase is likely by year-end, with some saying rates are not yet restrictive enough. That keeps the expected path of rates higher, pushing the 10-year yield up toward 5.3%.

    New information from the Fed reinforces the higher-for-longer rate outlook, a major upward force on yields.

  • Oil near $105 on Iran tensions keeps inflation risk alive Brent crude rose back near $105 as the US-Iran conflict drags on and Trump reportedly weighs new strikes. High energy costs feed inflation, making investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, keeping upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

    Oil-driven inflation risk is a persistent upward force on yields, and new developments keep it relevant.

▲3

Hot economy, hawkish Fed and oil push 10-year yield to 19-year high

  • Strong September PMI and hawkish Fed officials lift rate-hike odds US business activity hit a 5-year high in September, and Fed officials Barr, Goolsbee, Paulson and Williams all backed further rate hikes. Markets now price about a 70% chance of an October hike. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield above 5% to a 19-year high.

    This is the main new force this period: strong data plus hawkish Fed talk sharply raised rate-hike expectations, directly lifting the 10-year yield.

  • Oil stays above $100 as Iran war drags on, feeding inflation The US-Iran conflict entered its seventh month with no exit, keeping Brent crude near $106 and gasoline near $5 a gallon. JPMorgan gave up forecasting oil prices. High energy costs keep inflation high, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    The ongoing oil shock is a key new driver keeping inflation and yields elevated, and it shows no sign of easing.

  • Global bond selloff sends long-term yields to multi-decade highs The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.48%, a 22-year high, and Japan's 10-year yield reached 3.115%, a 30-year high. Heavy government borrowing and expectations that central banks stay tight are pushing yields up worldwide, dragging the US 10-year yield to 5.22%.

    This shows the move is global, not just US, and reinforces upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

  • US-China trade truce extended, but diesel export ban plan adds uncertainty The US and China extended their trade truce to January 2027, which could ease inflation pressure and pull yields down. But the White House is considering a 90-day diesel export ban to lower fuel prices before midterms, a wildcard that could either calm or worsen energy markets.

    This is a genuine counterweight: the truce reduces one inflation risk, but the diesel ban plan adds uncertainty that could keep yields volatile.

▲3

Fed's first hike in 3 years pushes 10-year Treasury yield above 5%

  • Fed hikes rates and signals more to come The Fed raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years, and most officials expect at least one more this year. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the central new event of the period and the main force lifting the 10-year yield.

  • Oil above $100 on Middle East supply fears Attacks on Saudi oil facilities and shipping pushed Brent above $107 and US crude above $105. Higher energy costs feed inflation worries, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    Oil-driven inflation fears are a key new force keeping upward pressure on yields.

  • 10-year yield tops 5%, highest since 2007 The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007, as markets priced in a near-certain Fed hike. Rising global debt worries and heavy government borrowing add to the upward pressure on long-term yields.

    This is the headline market outcome of the period and shows the scale of the move.

  • Some warn rate hikes won't fix supply-driven inflation Economists like Mark Zandi and TISCO note that energy and tariff shocks are supply problems rate hikes can't solve, and the Fed may be 'painted into a corner.' That doubt can cap how high yields go, even as the hike itself pushes them up.

    This is the real counterweight: it explains why the yield rise may be limited or reversed if the hikes are seen as ineffective.

▲3

Oil shock and hot inflation data push 10-year Treasury yield toward 5%

  • Oil spike above $100 on US-Iran conflict fuels inflation fears Renewed US-Iran fighting and attacks on Saudi oil facilities pushed Brent crude above $105, its highest in months. Higher energy costs feed inflation, making investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up to near 5%.

    This is the main new force this period driving yields higher through inflation expectations.

  • Hot PPI and CPI data lift September rate-hike odds to about 70% Producer prices came in firmer than expected and August CPI showed core prices rising 0.3% month-on-month, above forecasts. Markets now see a roughly 70% chance the Fed hikes rates on September 16, and higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the key new data point that shifted rate expectations and directly moved yields.

  • Treasury buybacks fail to cap yields as debt tops $40 trillion The Treasury bought back only $5.19 billion of bonds versus the $6 billion planned, and received just $10 billion of offers versus the usual $20 billion. Weak demand signals investors want higher yields, and with US debt past $40 trillion and $8.4 trillion needing refinancing, heavy borrowing keeps upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

    This shows the counterweight (buybacks) is failing, which is new and important for the big picture.

  • Political pressure for rate cuts clashes with Fed independence concerns Vice President Vance and President Trump pushed for rate cuts, with Trump threatening to halt trade if the Fed doesn't comply. This political interference raises doubts about the Fed's independence, which can push yields up as investors demand extra compensation for uncertainty, even as the calls for cuts pull in the opposite direction.

    This is a new political development that adds uncertainty and affects the yield through Fed credibility concerns.

▲3▼1

Warsh's hawkish Fed and oil spike push 10-year yield to 2023 high

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech fuels September rate-hike bets Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech was seen as hawkish, saying the Fed has 'work to do' if inflation doesn't fall. Markets now price a 60-66% chance of a September rate hike, up from about 35%. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main new force this period, directly driving rate-hike expectations and yields.

  • US-Iran conflict lifts oil, adding to inflation worries Renewed US-Iran fighting pushed oil above $90 a barrel, with Brent near $95. Higher energy costs feed inflation fears, making investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds. The 10-year yield rose above 4.75%, its highest since late 2023.

    Oil-driven inflation fears are a key new driver pushing yields higher this period.

  • Global bond selloff sends yields to multi-year highs Government bond yields jumped worldwide, with Japan's 10-year hitting 3% for the first time since 1996 and Germany's at a 15-year high. Heavy government borrowing and expectations that central banks stay tight for longer pushed the US 10-year yield to 4.81%, a near three-year high.

    This shows the global scale of the selloff and reinforces upward pressure on US yields.

  • Waller hints Fed may hold, and strong jobs data keeps hike debate alive Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could 'wait one meeting' and give disinflation a chance, briefly pulling the 10-year yield down to about 4.75% and cutting hike odds to 50%. But strong August jobs data (162,000 vs 55,000 expected) quickly pushed hike odds back to 60%, keeping yields elevated.

    This is the main counterweight: a possible Fed hold that briefly lowered yields, though strong data limited the relief.

August 2026
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Inflation, Fed hawkishness, and debt worries pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher in August

  • Inflation and Fed hawkishness Inflation stayed near 3.3%, and Fed Chair Warsh signaled a tough stance on prices, raising the chance of a September interest-rate hike. That pushed long-term bond yields up.

    This is a key new driver of higher yields in August.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy borrowing US government debt passed $40 trillion, with heavy borrowing and a global savings squeeze. Investors demanded higher yields to hold long-term bonds, adding upward pressure on rates.

    This new fiscal development pushed yields higher.

  • Weak economic data and lower oil July jobs fell by 23,000, retail sales and consumer confidence were soft, and oil prices dropped on US-Iran ceasefire hopes. These factors pulled yields down by suggesting slower growth and less inflation.

    This new data provided downward pressure on yields.

  • Treasury buybacks and Fed uncertainty Treasury doubled buybacks to $4 billion per operation, supporting bond prices, but tension with the Fed over balance-sheet shrinkage and reduced Fed communication raised uncertainty. Investors demanded extra yield, keeping rates elevated.

    This new mixed factor influenced yields in both directions.

▲2▼1

Treasury buybacks vs. Warsh's rate-hike signal: yields end higher

  • Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks to push yields down The Treasury expanded purchases of 10- to 30-year government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, starting September 9, and may use its $950 billion cash account. Buying bonds lifts their price and lowers the 10-year yield, though the effect faded as investors doubted it fixes the debt load.

    This is the main new force pulling the 10-year yield down this period.

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifts September rate-hike odds Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed has 'work to do' if inflation doesn't clearly fall to 2%, and financial conditions aren't restrictive. Traders raised the chance of a September hike to about 55-60% from 35%. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield above 4.7%.

    This is the biggest new upward force on the 10-year yield this period.

  • Global savings squeeze and debt worries keep long-term yields high Heavy government borrowing, trade disruptions, aging costs and AI investment are all competing for the same lending money, a shift from a savings glut to a savings squeeze. With US debt past $40 trillion and deficits large, investors demand more yield to lend long-term, keeping the 10-year yield elevated.

    This explains the persistent upward pressure that buybacks alone cannot offset.

  • Treasury-Fed clash leaves bond investors uncertain The Treasury's buybacks work against the Fed's inflation fight, and Warsh gave little guidance on future policy. Investors demand extra yield for that uncertainty, which pushes long-term yields up, while the buybacks themselves pull yields down. The two forces leave the 10-year yield volatile around 4.65-4.72%.

    It shows the real counterweight that keeps the net direction from being one-sided.

▲2▼1

Treasury buybacks clash with inflation and debt fears, yields stay high

  • Inflation stubborn, Fed minutes signal possible hikes Core inflation stuck near 3.3% and Fed minutes showed many officials ready to raise rates if it doesn't fall. Higher rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main force keeping upward pressure on yields.

  • US debt tops $40 trillion, fiscal worries grow US government debt passed $40 trillion for the first time, with a $1.8 trillion deficit this year. Heavy borrowing and rising interest costs push yields up as investors demand more to lend.

    Fiscal deterioration is a key new driver of higher yields.

  • Treasury doubles bond buybacks to cap yields The Treasury unexpectedly doubled its buybacks of long-term bonds to $4 billion per operation, aiming to support demand and lower yields. The 10-year yield fell to about 4.65% before rebounding.

    This is the main counterweight pushing yields down.

  • Treasury-Fed tension raises uncertainty Treasury's intervention conflicts with Fed Chair Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, raising questions about Fed independence. Investors demand extra yield for the uncertainty, keeping upward pressure on long-term rates.

    This policy clash adds a new layer of uncertainty affecting yields.

▼2▲1

Weak jobs and retail data cut rate-hike odds, pulling 10-year yields down

  • Weak July jobs report slashes September rate-hike odds US employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, far below the expected gain, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see only about a 30-44% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from 67%. Lower hike odds make existing bonds more attractive, pulling the 10-year yield down.

    This is the main new force this period: a weak labor market directly reduces the chance of higher rates, which lowers the 10-year yield.

  • Weak retail sales and consumer confidence reinforce rate-hike retreat July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months, and consumer confidence weakened. Traders now assign a 71% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September. Fading growth worries reduce the need for higher rates, pushing the 10-year yield down.

    This is a new development that further reduces rate-hike expectations, adding downward pressure on yields.

  • Rising oil and Iran tensions stoke inflation fears, lifting yields Oil rose for a fourth day as the US prepared new sanctions and a blockade against Iran, reducing hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs feed inflation worries, pushing the 10-year yield up to around 4.68%.

    This is a new geopolitical development that adds upward pressure on yields by raising inflation concerns.

▲2▼2

Fed rate-hike fears push yields up, then weak jobs data pulls them back

  • Fed signals possible rate hikes as inflation stays high Fed Chair Warsh said he has 'no tolerance' for inflation and is ready to raise rates in September if inflation accelerates. Three officials already voted to hike. Higher rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main new force driving yields higher this period.

  • Warsh cuts communication, markets demand higher compensation Warsh gave no rate guidance and may reduce the number of yearly Fed meetings. Investors call this a credibility problem and are selling long-dated bonds, demanding extra yield for the added uncertainty. The 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007.

    It explains why long-term yields rose even without an actual rate hike.

  • US-Iran ceasefire hopes cut oil prices and bond yields Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran and talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz progressed, sending oil down sharply. Lower energy costs ease inflation fears, so the 10-year yield fell to about 4.67% as investors bought bonds.

    It is the main new force pulling yields down this period.

  • Weak jobs report slashes odds of a September rate hike The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below the expected gain. Investors now see about a 60% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, up from 33% a week earlier. The 10-year yield fell to 4.61%.

    It is the latest and most direct new data point pulling yields down.