← Gfl Environmental overview

Gfl Environmental vs Waste Connections: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)

Q3 2026
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

August 2026
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

Latest
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

Waste Connections Inc (WCN)

Q3 2026
▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.

    This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.

  • AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.

    It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.

  • Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.

    These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.

  • Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.

    It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

August 2026
▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.

    This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.

  • AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.

    It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.

  • Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.

    These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.

  • Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.

    It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

Latest
▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.

    This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.

  • AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.

    It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.

  • Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.

    These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.

  • Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.

    It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.