← Gfl Environmental overview

Gfl Environmental vs Waste Management: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)

Q3 2026
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

August 2026
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

Latest
▲3

GFL's Take-Private Bidding War Heats Up as SECURE Deal Closes

  • Take-private bidding war intensifies Two competing private equity consortiums — KKR/Blackstone/Energy Capital and Brookfield/IFM — are bidding for GFL, with CEO Dovigi open to a higher offer and willing to roll his stake. This buyout interest supports a higher share price as investors anticipate a premium deal.

    This is the latest and most concrete development in the ongoing take-private saga, directly lifting GFL's stock.

  • SECURE acquisition completed GFL closed its C$6.4 billion SECURE Waste acquisition, funded with shares, a revolver draw, and a new US$1 billion term loan. The deal expands GFL's platform in Western Canada and North Dakota, and management targets mid-3s leverage, which could support future growth.

    This is a major completed event that changes GFL's business mix and financial profile, influencing its value.

  • Stock seen undervalued after FY2025 results FY2025 results showed revenue of CA$6.62 billion, EBITDA of CA$1.99 billion, and free cash flow of CA$755.9 million. Analysts' consensus target of CA$70.55 implies the stock is 17.6% undervalued, highlighting potential upside.

    This provides a fundamental valuation anchor that supports the bullish case for GFL.

Waste Management Inc (WM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

  • Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.

  • Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.

    It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.

  • High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.

  • Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.

    It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.

August 2026
▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

  • Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.

  • Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.

    It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.

  • High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.

  • Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.

    It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.

Latest
▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

  • Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.

  • Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.

    It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.

  • High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.

  • Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.

    It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.