Graco vs Illinois Tool Works: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Graco Inc (GGG)

Q3 202617 Jul – 22 Sep 2026

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Graco's Growth Stays Slow; Valco Melton Deal Adds Scale

Valco Melton acquisition closes, adding $145M revenue Graco completed its $447 million cash purchase of Valco Melton, an adhesive-dispensing and quality-check systems maker with about $145 million in 2025 revenue and 650 employees in over 80 countries. It folds into Graco's Industrial segment, adding scale and cross-selling opportunities, though the price is roughly 14 times EBITDA.
The completed deal is the biggest new event this period and directly changes Graco's revenue base and growth outlook.
Q2 earnings beat but sales miss; organic demand still soft Graco beat Q2 profit estimates by 12.4% and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, but sales of $590.6 million missed expectations and organic sales actually fell 1%. Growth came from acquisitions and currency, not core demand, so the profit beat is real but the underlying business is still sluggish.
This is the core earnings update that frames both the profit strength and the demand weakness driving the stock.
Graco lags peers on growth and returns Graco was flagged for only 2.1% annual revenue growth, flat earnings per share, and diminishing returns on capital, and was the slowest performer among 12 gas and liquid handling stocks, with revenue 3% short of expectations. Investors are rotating toward faster-growing industrial names, pressuring Graco's relative valuation.
It explains why Graco underperforms its peer group even when its own results are decent.
Slowing contractor and industrial end markets weigh on shares Graco shares underperformed in Q2 as investors focused on slowing organic demand in contractor and industrial equipment end markets, despite healthy profitability and a 28% jump in order backlog. The backlog suggests demand may improve later, but for now weak current orders keep a lid on the stock.
It captures the demand-side worry that has been the main drag on Graco's share price.

August 202617 Jul – 22 Sep 2026

▼2▲1

Graco's Growth Stays Slow; Valco Melton Deal Adds Scale

Valco Melton acquisition closes, adding $145M revenue Graco completed its $447 million cash purchase of Valco Melton, an adhesive-dispensing and quality-check systems maker with about $145 million in 2025 revenue and 650 employees in over 80 countries. It folds into Graco's Industrial segment, adding scale and cross-selling opportunities, though the price is roughly 14 times EBITDA.
The completed deal is the biggest new event this period and directly changes Graco's revenue base and growth outlook.
Q2 earnings beat but sales miss; organic demand still soft Graco beat Q2 profit estimates by 12.4% and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, but sales of $590.6 million missed expectations and organic sales actually fell 1%. Growth came from acquisitions and currency, not core demand, so the profit beat is real but the underlying business is still sluggish.
This is the core earnings update that frames both the profit strength and the demand weakness driving the stock.
Graco lags peers on growth and returns Graco was flagged for only 2.1% annual revenue growth, flat earnings per share, and diminishing returns on capital, and was the slowest performer among 12 gas and liquid handling stocks, with revenue 3% short of expectations. Investors are rotating toward faster-growing industrial names, pressuring Graco's relative valuation.
It explains why Graco underperforms its peer group even when its own results are decent.
Slowing contractor and industrial end markets weigh on shares Graco shares underperformed in Q2 as investors focused on slowing organic demand in contractor and industrial equipment end markets, despite healthy profitability and a 28% jump in order backlog. The backlog suggests demand may improve later, but for now weak current orders keep a lid on the stock.
It captures the demand-side worry that has been the main drag on Graco's share price.

Latest17 Jul – 22 Sep 2026

▼2▲1

Graco's Growth Stays Slow; Valco Melton Deal Adds Scale

Valco Melton acquisition closes, adding $145M revenue Graco completed its $447 million cash purchase of Valco Melton, an adhesive-dispensing and quality-check systems maker with about $145 million in 2025 revenue and 650 employees in over 80 countries. It folds into Graco's Industrial segment, adding scale and cross-selling opportunities, though the price is roughly 14 times EBITDA.
The completed deal is the biggest new event this period and directly changes Graco's revenue base and growth outlook.
Q2 earnings beat but sales miss; organic demand still soft Graco beat Q2 profit estimates by 12.4% and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, but sales of $590.6 million missed expectations and organic sales actually fell 1%. Growth came from acquisitions and currency, not core demand, so the profit beat is real but the underlying business is still sluggish.
This is the core earnings update that frames both the profit strength and the demand weakness driving the stock.
Graco lags peers on growth and returns Graco was flagged for only 2.1% annual revenue growth, flat earnings per share, and diminishing returns on capital, and was the slowest performer among 12 gas and liquid handling stocks, with revenue 3% short of expectations. Investors are rotating toward faster-growing industrial names, pressuring Graco's relative valuation.
It explains why Graco underperforms its peer group even when its own results are decent.
Slowing contractor and industrial end markets weigh on shares Graco shares underperformed in Q2 as investors focused on slowing organic demand in contractor and industrial equipment end markets, despite healthy profitability and a 28% jump in order backlog. The backlog suggests demand may improve later, but for now weak current orders keep a lid on the stock.
It captures the demand-side worry that has been the main drag on Graco's share price.

Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)

Q3 202611 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

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ITW's strong Q2 and record cash returns met by a late 2027 demand warning

Q2 beat and raised guidance ITW reported record quarterly operating income of $1.15 billion, with organic growth of 4.5% and earnings per share up 10% to $2.84. Management raised full-year organic sales growth guidance to 3% to 4%, saying demand accelerated across every segment. The stock jumped 5.5% on the news.
This is the period's biggest positive event and the main reason ITW's price moved up.
Bigger dividend and $6 billion buyback ITW raised its dividend 7% to $6.88 a year and authorized a new $6 billion share buyback. Returning cash this way supports the stock price by shrinking the number of shares and rewarding holders, and signals management expects steady cash flow ahead.
It is a fresh, concrete capital-return decision that supports the share price.
Analyst estimate upgrade ITW was upgraded to Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) as analysts nudged up their earnings estimates over the past three months. Rising estimates often pull the share price higher because investors pay for expected future profits, though the expected $11.44 per share is flat versus last year.
It shows a fresh, if modest, shift in analyst sentiment that can move the stock.
JPMorgan downgrade on slowing demand JPMorgan cut ITW to Neutral from Overweight and slashed its price target to $270 from $350, warning that short-cycle industrial demand is slowing into 2027. A lower target and downgrade can weigh on the stock by cooling investor expectations for future growth.
It is the main counterweight this period and directly explains why the stock could face pressure.

August 202611 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

ITW's strong Q2 and record cash returns met by a late 2027 demand warning

Q2 beat and raised guidance ITW reported record quarterly operating income of $1.15 billion, with organic growth of 4.5% and earnings per share up 10% to $2.84. Management raised full-year organic sales growth guidance to 3% to 4%, saying demand accelerated across every segment. The stock jumped 5.5% on the news.
This is the period's biggest positive event and the main reason ITW's price moved up.
Bigger dividend and $6 billion buyback ITW raised its dividend 7% to $6.88 a year and authorized a new $6 billion share buyback. Returning cash this way supports the stock price by shrinking the number of shares and rewarding holders, and signals management expects steady cash flow ahead.
It is a fresh, concrete capital-return decision that supports the share price.
Analyst estimate upgrade ITW was upgraded to Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) as analysts nudged up their earnings estimates over the past three months. Rising estimates often pull the share price higher because investors pay for expected future profits, though the expected $11.44 per share is flat versus last year.
It shows a fresh, if modest, shift in analyst sentiment that can move the stock.
JPMorgan downgrade on slowing demand JPMorgan cut ITW to Neutral from Overweight and slashed its price target to $270 from $350, warning that short-cycle industrial demand is slowing into 2027. A lower target and downgrade can weigh on the stock by cooling investor expectations for future growth.
It is the main counterweight this period and directly explains why the stock could face pressure.

Latest11 Jul – 9 Oct 2026

▲3▼1

ITW's strong Q2 and record cash returns met by a late 2027 demand warning

Q2 beat and raised guidance ITW reported record quarterly operating income of $1.15 billion, with organic growth of 4.5% and earnings per share up 10% to $2.84. Management raised full-year organic sales growth guidance to 3% to 4%, saying demand accelerated across every segment. The stock jumped 5.5% on the news.
This is the period's biggest positive event and the main reason ITW's price moved up.
Bigger dividend and $6 billion buyback ITW raised its dividend 7% to $6.88 a year and authorized a new $6 billion share buyback. Returning cash this way supports the stock price by shrinking the number of shares and rewarding holders, and signals management expects steady cash flow ahead.
It is a fresh, concrete capital-return decision that supports the share price.
Analyst estimate upgrade ITW was upgraded to Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) as analysts nudged up their earnings estimates over the past three months. Rising estimates often pull the share price higher because investors pay for expected future profits, though the expected $11.44 per share is flat versus last year.
It shows a fresh, if modest, shift in analyst sentiment that can move the stock.
JPMorgan downgrade on slowing demand JPMorgan cut ITW to Neutral from Overweight and slashed its price target to $270 from $350, warning that short-cycle industrial demand is slowing into 2027. A lower target and downgrade can weigh on the stock by cooling investor expectations for future growth.
It is the main counterweight this period and directly explains why the stock could face pressure.