Houlihan Lokey vs Nomura Holdings: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI)

Q3 202629 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

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Houlihan Lokey's Deal Slump Hits Earnings, but Private-Markets Push Offers Hope

Q1 Earnings Miss as M&A Deals Stall Houlihan Lokey's fiscal Q1 revenue fell 15.5% to $511 million and adjusted EPS dropped to $1.35, badly missing estimates. Delayed tech and mid-cap M&A deals, plus geopolitical uncertainty, cut deal fees. This weak quarter pressures the stock because profits depend on completed transactions.
The earnings miss is the main new negative force driving HLI's price down this period.
Private-Markets Survey Points to Future Fee Growth Houlihan Lokey's LP Compass survey forecasts record direct and co-investment volumes in 2026, with these strategies overtaking primary funds within five years. As an advisor on such deals, HLI could earn more fees. This supports the stock by showing a growing market for its services.
It highlights a new positive demand driver that could offset weak traditional M&A.
Peer Comparison Shows HLI as Group Laggard A sector review of 15 investment banks and brokers found Houlihan Lokey was the weakest, with revenue down 15.6% and 16.3% below estimates, while peers like Goldman Sachs beat expectations. This relative underperformance can push HLI shares down as investors favor stronger competitors.
It reinforces HLI's weak standing versus peers, a new negative signal for the stock.
Leadership Changes Signal Strategic Shift Houlihan Lokey hired two managing directors for financial services and fintech, and a board member resigned without disagreement. The hires support growth in private markets and digital assets, but the board exit adds governance uncertainty. Net effect on the stock is unclear.
It shows a new strategic push with potential long-term benefits but near-term ambiguity.

September 202629 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

Houlihan Lokey's Deal Slump Hits Earnings, but Private-Markets Push Offers Hope

Q1 Earnings Miss as M&A Deals Stall Houlihan Lokey's fiscal Q1 revenue fell 15.5% to $511 million and adjusted EPS dropped to $1.35, badly missing estimates. Delayed tech and mid-cap M&A deals, plus geopolitical uncertainty, cut deal fees. This weak quarter pressures the stock because profits depend on completed transactions.
The earnings miss is the main new negative force driving HLI's price down this period.
Private-Markets Survey Points to Future Fee Growth Houlihan Lokey's LP Compass survey forecasts record direct and co-investment volumes in 2026, with these strategies overtaking primary funds within five years. As an advisor on such deals, HLI could earn more fees. This supports the stock by showing a growing market for its services.
It highlights a new positive demand driver that could offset weak traditional M&A.
Peer Comparison Shows HLI as Group Laggard A sector review of 15 investment banks and brokers found Houlihan Lokey was the weakest, with revenue down 15.6% and 16.3% below estimates, while peers like Goldman Sachs beat expectations. This relative underperformance can push HLI shares down as investors favor stronger competitors.
It reinforces HLI's weak standing versus peers, a new negative signal for the stock.
Leadership Changes Signal Strategic Shift Houlihan Lokey hired two managing directors for financial services and fintech, and a board member resigned without disagreement. The hires support growth in private markets and digital assets, but the board exit adds governance uncertainty. Net effect on the stock is unclear.
It shows a new strategic push with potential long-term benefits but near-term ambiguity.

Latest29 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

Houlihan Lokey's Deal Slump Hits Earnings, but Private-Markets Push Offers Hope

Q1 Earnings Miss as M&A Deals Stall Houlihan Lokey's fiscal Q1 revenue fell 15.5% to $511 million and adjusted EPS dropped to $1.35, badly missing estimates. Delayed tech and mid-cap M&A deals, plus geopolitical uncertainty, cut deal fees. This weak quarter pressures the stock because profits depend on completed transactions.
The earnings miss is the main new negative force driving HLI's price down this period.
Private-Markets Survey Points to Future Fee Growth Houlihan Lokey's LP Compass survey forecasts record direct and co-investment volumes in 2026, with these strategies overtaking primary funds within five years. As an advisor on such deals, HLI could earn more fees. This supports the stock by showing a growing market for its services.
It highlights a new positive demand driver that could offset weak traditional M&A.
Peer Comparison Shows HLI as Group Laggard A sector review of 15 investment banks and brokers found Houlihan Lokey was the weakest, with revenue down 15.6% and 16.3% below estimates, while peers like Goldman Sachs beat expectations. This relative underperformance can push HLI shares down as investors favor stronger competitors.
It reinforces HLI's weak standing versus peers, a new negative signal for the stock.
Leadership Changes Signal Strategic Shift Houlihan Lokey hired two managing directors for financial services and fintech, and a board member resigned without disagreement. The hires support growth in private markets and digital assets, but the board exit adds governance uncertainty. Net effect on the stock is unclear.
It shows a new strategic push with potential long-term benefits but near-term ambiguity.

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604.JP)

Q3 202617 Jun – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura Q3: Record Profits, Crypto Expansion, But Risks Linger

Record earnings and profitability Nomura reported record recurring revenue of ¥59.2bn, a 15.4% return on equity, and a 39% jump in April–June net profit to ¥145.5bn, driven by a 30% surge in wholesale revenue from Tokyo equity trading.
This is the core financial performance that drove investor confidence and the stock price.
Digital asset expansion Nomura's crypto arm Laser Digital received conditional OCC approval for a US trust charter, and Nomura became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years, signaling a strategic push into digital assets.
This new business initiative opens growth opportunities and differentiates Nomura in the financial sector.
Analyst upgrades and fee income Analysts raised profit forecasts by 4.8%, and Nomura joined SoftBank's ¥1trn bond underwriting, adding fee income and reinforcing its investment banking franchise.
These developments reflect positive sentiment and additional revenue streams that support the stock.
Early-stage crypto and market dependency risks Crypto initiatives are early-stage and may take time to pay off, and the bullish Nikkei 75,000 target depends on continued rate hikes and market strength, posing downside risks if conditions change.
This provides a balanced view of potential headwinds that could impact future performance.

August 202613 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura's profit outlook brightens on rate hikes, crypto entry, and deal fees

Profit forecast upgraded Analysts raised their profit forecast for Nomura by 4.8% in a week, now expecting a 5.2% increase from last year. This reflects growing confidence in the company's earnings, which supports a higher stock price.
Directly shows improving earnings expectations, a key driver for the stock.
Crypto exchange approval Nomura's digital asset unit became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years. This opens a new business line and positions Nomura in a growing market, potentially adding future revenue and boosting investor optimism.
New regulatory milestone expands Nomura's business into crypto, a positive growth driver.
Underwriting large bond deal Nomura is among the underwriters for SoftBank's 1 trillion yen bond sale. This generates fee income for Nomura's investment banking division, directly adding to profits and supporting the stock price.
A concrete deal that boosts Nomura's fee revenue, a positive earnings catalyst.
Bullish on rates and market Nomura's president expects the Nikkei to reach 75,000 by year-end, citing rising interest rates as positive for banks. Higher rates can boost Nomura's trading and lending income, and the optimistic market view supports the stock.
Leadership's bullish outlook on rates and the stock market signals confidence in Nomura's business environment.

Latest13 Jul – 8 Oct 2026

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Nomura's profit outlook brightens on rate hikes, crypto entry, and deal fees

Profit forecast upgraded Analysts raised their profit forecast for Nomura by 4.8% in a week, now expecting a 5.2% increase from last year. This reflects growing confidence in the company's earnings, which supports a higher stock price.
Directly shows improving earnings expectations, a key driver for the stock.
Crypto exchange approval Nomura's digital asset unit became Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years. This opens a new business line and positions Nomura in a growing market, potentially adding future revenue and boosting investor optimism.
New regulatory milestone expands Nomura's business into crypto, a positive growth driver.
Underwriting large bond deal Nomura is among the underwriters for SoftBank's 1 trillion yen bond sale. This generates fee income for Nomura's investment banking division, directly adding to profits and supporting the stock price.
A concrete deal that boosts Nomura's fee revenue, a positive earnings catalyst.
Bullish on rates and market Nomura's president expects the Nikkei to reach 75,000 by year-end, citing rising interest rates as positive for banks. Higher rates can boost Nomura's trading and lending income, and the optimistic market view supports the stock.
Leadership's bullish outlook on rates and the stock market signals confidence in Nomura's business environment.

July 202617 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

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Nomura's profit surges on trading boom and digital-asset expansion

Wholesale revenue running 30% higher Nomura said wholesale revenue is up over 30% year-on-year, led by equity products, as Tokyo Stock Exchange cash-equity turnover jumped 68% in 2026. That raises the odds Nomura beats the roughly flat 2.2 trillion yen revenue consensus, lifting the shares.
This is the first signal of a strong quarter and directly drives earnings expectations.
Record recurring revenue and 15.4% ROE in Q1 Nomura reported record recurring revenue of 59.2 billion yen and a 15.4% return on equity. Wealth management net revenue rose 9% to 145.4 billion yen, with record net inflows into recurring-revenue assets. Global markets revenue jumped 26%, led by a 41% surge in equities. This shows broad-based profit strength.
It confirms the strong quarter with record recurring revenue and high ROE, a key driver of the stock.
April–June net profit up 39% to 145.5 billion yen Nomura's net profit for the April–June quarter rose 39% year-on-year to 145.5 billion yen, beating expectations. All five major Japanese brokerages posted sharp profit gains, helped by rising interest rates, higher stock prices, and strong sales of investment products. This confirms a sector-wide upcycle.
The earnings beat is the headline number that directly moves the stock and validates the positive trend.
Digital-asset push: US trust charter and ZIG partnership Nomura's Laser Digital won conditional OCC approval for a US national trust bank charter, enabling institutional crypto custody. It also invested in crypto asset ZIG and will co-develop on-chain financial products for institutions. These moves expand future revenue but are early-stage and may take time to pay off.
It shows a new growth avenue in digital assets, though with longer-term impact.

17 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

▲4

Nomura's profit surges on trading boom and digital-asset expansion

Wholesale revenue running 30% higher Nomura said wholesale revenue is up over 30% year-on-year, led by equity products, as Tokyo Stock Exchange cash-equity turnover jumped 68% in 2026. That raises the odds Nomura beats the roughly flat 2.2 trillion yen revenue consensus, lifting the shares.
This is the first signal of a strong quarter and directly drives earnings expectations.
Record recurring revenue and 15.4% ROE in Q1 Nomura reported record recurring revenue of 59.2 billion yen and a 15.4% return on equity. Wealth management net revenue rose 9% to 145.4 billion yen, with record net inflows into recurring-revenue assets. Global markets revenue jumped 26%, led by a 41% surge in equities. This shows broad-based profit strength.
It confirms the strong quarter with record recurring revenue and high ROE, a key driver of the stock.
April–June net profit up 39% to 145.5 billion yen Nomura's net profit for the April–June quarter rose 39% year-on-year to 145.5 billion yen, beating expectations. All five major Japanese brokerages posted sharp profit gains, helped by rising interest rates, higher stock prices, and strong sales of investment products. This confirms a sector-wide upcycle.
The earnings beat is the headline number that directly moves the stock and validates the positive trend.
Digital-asset push: US trust charter and ZIG partnership Nomura's Laser Digital won conditional OCC approval for a US national trust bank charter, enabling institutional crypto custody. It also invested in crypto asset ZIG and will co-develop on-chain financial products for institutions. These moves expand future revenue but are early-stage and may take time to pay off.
It shows a new growth avenue in digital assets, though with longer-term impact.