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Home Product Center vs The Home Depot: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Home Product Center Public Company Limited (HMPRO.BK)

Q3 2026
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HMPRO returns to profit growth, but weak same-store sales persist

  • First profit growth in five quarters HMPRO's net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht in Q2 2026, the first gain in five quarters, helped by better margins. This signals a possible turnaround in profitability.

    This is the key positive development that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Government solar subsidy and flood repair demand A government solar rooftop subsidy and post-flood repair demand are expected to boost sales. CGSI upgraded the stock from Sell to Buy, and the 5.5% dividend yield attracts income investors.

    These are new positive catalysts that emerged during the quarter.

  • Weak same-store sales and soft purchasing power Same-store sales fell about 2.5% as purchasing power remained soft. HMPRO also missed the Thai Helps Thai Plus stimulus, and heavy rain pressured sales, limiting the recovery.

    These are the main negative factors that weighed on the stock during the period.

  • Expansion to 134 branches raises costs HMPRO expanded to 134 branches, which supports long-term growth but raises costs. Brokers see flood damage as limited and short-lived, recommending buying on dips, though profit growth is expected to stay moderate.

    This captures the mixed impact of expansion and the cautious but constructive broker view.

August 2026
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HMPRO returns to profit growth on margins, solar subsidy, flood demand

  • Q2 profit beats on margins HMPRO's Q2 2026 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating forecasts on better margins and cooling appliance sales—its first growth in five quarters. Brokers expect Q3 profit up 6% year-on-year.

    This is the key new financial result that drove the stock.

  • Solar subsidy and flood repair demand A government solar rooftop subsidy (50,000 baht per household) benefits HMPRO as a retail channel, and expected post-flood repair demand could lift sales, as flooded branches previously saw 10–20% gains.

    These are new demand catalysts supporting future sales.

  • Value stock status and expansion HMPRO was named a value stock amid baht weakness, and it continues expanding to 134 branches, which supports long-term growth but raises costs.

    This highlights a new investor perception and ongoing expansion.

  • Weak same-store sales and soft demand Same-store sales remain weak at about -2.5%, HMPRO misses the Thai Helps Thai Plus stimulus, purchasing power is soft, and heavy rain pressures sales—keeping profit growth moderate.

    These are the main counterweights limiting the stock's upside.

Latest
▲3▼1

HMPRO's profit recovery meets weak same-store sales and flood-driven repair demand

  • Profit recovery continues with Q2 beat and Q3 growth expected HMPRO's Q2 2026 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating expectations on better margins and cooling appliance sales. Brokers now expect Q3 profit around 1.39 billion baht, up 6% year-on-year, supported by higher private-brand share and price adjustments. This confirms the earnings recovery is real, supporting the stock.

    This is the core fundamental driver showing HMPRO's profit is recovering, which directly supports the share price.

  • Same-store sales remain weak, missing government stimulus Same-store sales at HomePro, about 80% of sales, are still falling, expected at -2.5% in Q3 2026. HMPRO is not participating in the Thai Helps Thai Plus program, so it misses that demand boost. Weak purchasing power and heavy rain are pressuring sales. This limits how much the profit recovery can accelerate.

    This is the main counterweight: even as profit grows, underlying sales at existing stores are shrinking, which caps upside.

  • Post-flood repair demand expected to lift Q4 sales Multiple brokers (Krungsri, Yuanta, BLS, DBS Vickers, KGI, Globlex, InnovestX) name HMPRO as a winner from post-flood home repair and renovation demand. After the 2024 northern floods, flooded HMPRO branches saw sales rise 10-20%. About 42% of HomePro stores are in the central region. This should boost Q4 2026 revenue.

    Flood recovery is the most repeated near-term catalyst that brokers say will drive HMPRO's sales higher in Q4.

  • Store expansion and hybrid format conversions continue HMPRO opened six hybrid stores and four new branches in Q3 2026, bringing the total to 134 branches. It plans seven more openings this year and invested 310 million baht to convert MegaHome Min Buri into a hybrid store. These expansions add revenue but also raise costs, keeping profit growth moderate.

    Store growth is a structural driver of future revenue, though it also pressures near-term expenses.

September 2026
▲4

Flood recovery demand and a major broker upgrade lift HMPRO

  • Post-flood repair demand to boost sales Bangkok's late-September floods are receding, and multiple brokers (Kasikorn, InnovestX, Globlex, Trinity, DBS Vickers, BLS) name HMPRO as a winner from home repair and restoration demand. This should lift sales of building materials and home products, especially in Q4 2026, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives future revenue for HMPRO.

  • CGSI upgrades HMPRO from Sell to Buy CGS International Securities raised its rating on HMPRO from Sell to Buy and upgraded the Thai retail sector to Overweight, citing the clearest demand recovery in three years. It also noted a 5.5% dividend yield for 2027. This directly boosts investor confidence and buying interest.

    A major broker upgrade is a strong new catalyst that can move the stock price.

  • Construction recovery signals stronger demand CGSI reported that construction area permitted rose 10.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and 7.7% in Q2 2026, ending 11 straight quarters of decline. This suggests home improvement product sales will recover in Q4 2026 and 2027, supporting HMPRO's revenue growth.

    This is new evidence of a turning point in the home improvement market, which underpins HMPRO's business.

  • Flood impact seen as short-lived, buy-on-dip advised Brokers including InnovestX and BLS say the flood's economic damage is limited (0.1-0.3% of GDP) and short-lived, recommending investors buy domestic stocks on dips. HMPRO is repeatedly named in the Recovery & Repair theme, which may attract buyers.

    This reinforces the positive sentiment and suggests limited downside from the flood, encouraging investment.

▲4

Flood recovery demand and a major broker upgrade lift HMPRO

  • Post-flood repair demand to boost sales Bangkok's late-September floods are receding, and multiple brokers (Kasikorn, InnovestX, Globlex, Trinity, DBS Vickers, BLS) name HMPRO as a winner from home repair and restoration demand. This should lift sales of building materials and home products, especially in Q4 2026, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives future revenue for HMPRO.

  • CGSI upgrades HMPRO from Sell to Buy CGS International Securities raised its rating on HMPRO from Sell to Buy and upgraded the Thai retail sector to Overweight, citing the clearest demand recovery in three years. It also noted a 5.5% dividend yield for 2027. This directly boosts investor confidence and buying interest.

    A major broker upgrade is a strong new catalyst that can move the stock price.

  • Construction recovery signals stronger demand CGSI reported that construction area permitted rose 10.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and 7.7% in Q2 2026, ending 11 straight quarters of decline. This suggests home improvement product sales will recover in Q4 2026 and 2027, supporting HMPRO's revenue growth.

    This is new evidence of a turning point in the home improvement market, which underpins HMPRO's business.

  • Flood impact seen as short-lived, buy-on-dip advised Brokers including InnovestX and BLS say the flood's economic damage is limited (0.1-0.3% of GDP) and short-lived, recommending investors buy domestic stocks on dips. HMPRO is repeatedly named in the Recovery & Repair theme, which may attract buyers.

    This reinforces the positive sentiment and suggests limited downside from the flood, encouraging investment.

▲3

HMPRO profit rebound and solar subsidy plan drive gains

  • Q2 profit beats forecasts, first growth in five quarters HMPRO's Q2 2026 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating expectations, as sales of cooling appliances grew and gross margin improved to 27.7% from 25.8%. This was the first year-on-year profit growth in five quarters, and a broker kept a buy rating with a 7.70 baht target.

    The profit beat is the main company-specific force behind the stock's move and a genuine turnaround signal.

  • Government solar rooftop subsidy to lift household demand The Finance Ministry plans to give households 50,000 baht each toward rooftop solar installation, with registration opening mid-October 2026 and a budget of 50 billion baht. Analysts name HMPRO as a retail channel that should sell more solar kits and related home products, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new, large policy catalyst that directly points to higher demand for HMPRO's products.

  • HMPRO named a value stock as baht weakens Pie Securities listed HMPRO among 13 value stocks to hold, citing retail names that benefit from a weaker baht. The call came as global tech worries and rising U.S. bond yields pressured markets, pushing investors toward cheaper defensive stocks. This supports demand for HMPRO shares.

    It shows a fresh analyst endorsement that can draw buyers to the stock in a shaky market.

The Home Depot Inc (HD)

Q3 2026
▼2▲1

Home Depot Q3: Housing Slump and Tariffs Offset Earnings Beat

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Dividend Increase Home Depot's second-quarter results beat expectations, with revenue up 5.7% and comparable sales up 1.7%. The company also raised its dividend for the 156th straight time and reaffirmed guidance, signaling steady financial health.

    This positive earnings surprise and dividend raise supported investor confidence during the quarter.

  • Housing Market Weakness Pressures Sales Mortgage rates near 7.5% and 30-year low home turnover kept consumers from big remodels, hurting profitable categories. This dragged shares down about 11% as housing remains the key drag on results.

    Housing weakness was the primary negative force driving HD's stock lower during the period.

  • Tariffs and Downgrade Add Margin and Rate Risks Tariffs threaten profit margins, and Wolfe Research downgraded HD on lock-in and rate risks. These factors added uncertainty and weighed on the stock, compounding housing-related pressures.

    Tariff and analyst downgrade introduced new headwinds that contributed to the stock's decline.

  • Growth Initiatives and Cost Cuts Offset by One-Time Items New three-hour delivery, Pro rewards, and AI tools aim to support future growth, while cost cuts and resumed buybacks help earnings. However, a one-time $730 million tariff refund inflated profit and isn't repeatable.

    These strategic moves and financial actions provide a mixed but important counterbalance to the negative drivers.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Home Depot beats Q2 but housing slump drags shares down 11%

  • Q2 beat and dividend streak Home Depot beat Q2 expectations with revenue up 5.7% to $47.9 billion, comparable sales up 1.7%, and its 156th straight dividend raise. The company also reaffirmed guidance, showing the core business is still solid.

    This is the main new positive event that drove sentiment during the period.

  • New services and AI tools Home Depot launched nationwide three-hour delivery, expanded Pro contractor rewards, and rolled out its Magic Apron AI assistant. These moves aim to win more professional business and make shopping easier, supporting future sales.

    These are new strategic initiatives that could drive growth and were highlighted this period.

  • Housing weakness and high rates Mortgage rates hit 7.5%, home turnover sits at 30-year lows, and consumers are doing small repairs instead of profitable big remodels. This housing drag is the main reason shares fell about 11% in September.

    This is the key new negative force that pressured the stock during the period.

  • CEO medical leave adds uncertainty CEO Ted Decker's medical leave creates leadership uncertainty, but interim management delivered strong results and reaffirmed guidance. The market weighed this against the solid operational performance.

    This is a new event that introduced uncertainty but was partly offset by strong interim results.

Latest
▲3▼1

Home Depot's sales hold up on Pros and AI, but housing freeze caps the stock

  • Pro contractor push deepens Home Depot expanded Pro Xtra Rewards with new perks, realigned leadership into an Office of Pro Acceleration, and reported Pro sales again outpacing DIY. Pros spend more per job, so this steady share gain is the main thing offsetting weak consumer demand and supports the stock.

    Shows the company's biggest growth engine and why it partly offsets the housing drag.

  • Q2 sales beat and guidance reaffirmed Second-quarter sales rose 5.7% to $47.9 billion, comparable sales up 1.7%, with 13 of 16 departments positive, big-ticket transactions up 2.4% and online sales up 11%. Management reaffirmed flat-to-2% comparable sales guidance, reassuring investors that results are holding up.

    The quarter's headline result and guidance are the core new evidence on HD's health.

  • Tariff refunds and AI tools lift margins and service Home Depot got $730 million in tariff refunds, using $685 million to cut product costs and lift gross margin by 0.3 points. It also rolled out its Magic Apron AI assistant to all U.S. stores, which UBS says helps defend its service edge as AI shopping spreads.

    New one-off margin help plus a technology rollout that protects HD's competitive position.

  • Housing freeze and 7.5% mortgage rates bite Mortgage rates climbed back to 7.5%, the highest since 2024, and Home Depot shares fell about 11% in September. Housing turnover has been stuck at roughly 30-year lows for four years, so customers keep doing small repairs instead of profitable big remodels, and management sees no turnaround yet.

    The dominant force holding HD's sales and stock back, and the main counterweight to the positives.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Home Depot's core demand stays frozen as mortgage rates hit a three-year high

  • Frozen housing market keeps big-ticket renovation demand weak Home Depot's CFO said housing turnover is stuck at historic lows for a fourth year, so customers are sticking to small repairs instead of big remodels. That directly limits sales growth in the company's most profitable categories and keeps a lid on the stock.

    This is the central demand problem weighing on HD and explains why sales remain under pressure.

  • Mortgage rates at 7.45% squeeze renovation budgets The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.45%, the highest in three years, adding thousands in yearly interest costs for buyers. With more income going to housing, there is less left for kitchen remodels and other big projects that drive Home Depot's sales.

    Rising rates are a fresh, concrete headwind that makes the frozen-housing problem worse for HD.

  • Professional contractor business keeps growing and gaining share Home Depot's sales to professional contractors grew again and beat do-it-yourself sales, helped by delivery improvements and its SRS acquisition reaching 90% of stores. Pros spend more per job, so this steady growth partly offsets the weak consumer side.

    This is the main positive force supporting HD's sales while the housing market is frozen.

  • Broad category strength and cost cuts support profit and buybacks Home Depot beat its own forecast with 13 of 16 product categories growing, and management plans billions in cost savings, a return to about 2x debt-to-EBITDA by mid-2027, and resumed share repurchases. That supports earnings per share even with soft sales.

    It shows the company's financial health and capital returns can lift the stock despite weak housing.

▲2▼2

Home Depot's core demand stays frozen as mortgage rates hit a three-year high

  • Frozen housing market keeps big-ticket renovation demand weak Home Depot's CFO said housing turnover is stuck at historic lows for a fourth year, so customers are sticking to small repairs instead of big remodels. That directly limits sales growth in the company's most profitable categories and keeps a lid on the stock.

    This is the central demand problem weighing on HD and explains why sales remain under pressure.

  • Mortgage rates at 7.45% squeeze renovation budgets The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.45%, the highest in three years, adding thousands in yearly interest costs for buyers. With more income going to housing, there is less left for kitchen remodels and other big projects that drive Home Depot's sales.

    Rising rates are a fresh, concrete headwind that makes the frozen-housing problem worse for HD.

  • Professional contractor business keeps growing and gaining share Home Depot's sales to professional contractors grew again and beat do-it-yourself sales, helped by delivery improvements and its SRS acquisition reaching 90% of stores. Pros spend more per job, so this steady growth partly offsets the weak consumer side.

    This is the main positive force supporting HD's sales while the housing market is frozen.

  • Broad category strength and cost cuts support profit and buybacks Home Depot beat its own forecast with 13 of 16 product categories growing, and management plans billions in cost savings, a return to about 2x debt-to-EBITDA by mid-2027, and resumed share repurchases. That supports earnings per share even with soft sales.

    It shows the company's financial health and capital returns can lift the stock despite weak housing.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Home Depot's profit gets a one-time tariff-refund boost as housing stays weak

  • One-time tariff refunds inflate profit Home Depot got $730 million back after the Supreme Court struck down old tariffs, using $685 million to lower costs. That lifted reported profit, but it is a one-time boost, not stronger customer demand, so investors should not expect it to repeat.

    This is the biggest new force behind HD's recent profit beat and explains why reported earnings look better than the underlying business.

  • Analyst downgrade on housing lock-in and rate risk Wolfe Research downgraded Home Depot to Peer Perform, citing the lock-in effect that keeps homeowners from moving, weaker returns from big Pro acquisitions, and rising rate risks. It prefers Lowe's, which can pressure HD shares as some investors rotate away.

    A fresh analyst downgrade directly changes how some investors value HD and highlights specific worries beyond daily price moves.

  • Improving housing affordability could revive renovation demand Lennar cut home prices to a nine-year low and mortgage rates dipped to 6.47%, making homes more affordable. Cheaper housing usually leads to more home sales and then bigger renovation projects, which would help Home Depot's sales over time.

    This points to a potential turn in the housing cycle, the main long-term driver of Home Depot's demand.

  • Tariff deadline pushed up import costs Retailers rushed Chinese imports before a July 24 tariff deadline, expecting costs to rise on furniture and appliances. Higher tariffs would squeeze Home Depot's margins unless it raises prices, which could hurt sales to budget-conscious customers.

    This is a new cost pressure that could offset the benefit of the tariff refunds and weigh on future profits.

▲2▼2

Home Depot's profit gets a one-time tariff-refund boost as housing stays weak

  • One-time tariff refunds inflate profit Home Depot got $730 million back after the Supreme Court struck down old tariffs, using $685 million to lower costs. That lifted reported profit, but it is a one-time boost, not stronger customer demand, so investors should not expect it to repeat.

    This is the biggest new force behind HD's recent profit beat and explains why reported earnings look better than the underlying business.

  • Analyst downgrade on housing lock-in and rate risk Wolfe Research downgraded Home Depot to Peer Perform, citing the lock-in effect that keeps homeowners from moving, weaker returns from big Pro acquisitions, and rising rate risks. It prefers Lowe's, which can pressure HD shares as some investors rotate away.

    A fresh analyst downgrade directly changes how some investors value HD and highlights specific worries beyond daily price moves.

  • Improving housing affordability could revive renovation demand Lennar cut home prices to a nine-year low and mortgage rates dipped to 6.47%, making homes more affordable. Cheaper housing usually leads to more home sales and then bigger renovation projects, which would help Home Depot's sales over time.

    This points to a potential turn in the housing cycle, the main long-term driver of Home Depot's demand.

  • Tariff deadline pushed up import costs Retailers rushed Chinese imports before a July 24 tariff deadline, expecting costs to rise on furniture and appliances. Higher tariffs would squeeze Home Depot's margins unless it raises prices, which could hurt sales to budget-conscious customers.

    This is a new cost pressure that could offset the benefit of the tariff refunds and weigh on future profits.

▲2▼1

Home Depot beats Q2, dividend up, delivery push; housing still drags

  • Q2 beat and dividend raise Home Depot beat second-quarter expectations with revenue up 5.7% to $47.9 billion and earnings of $4.92 a share. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the best since late 2022, and the company raised its dividend for the 156th straight time. Beating expectations and returning cash supports the stock.

    The earnings beat and dividend increase are the core new positive events driving HD this period.

  • Nationwide express delivery rollout Home Depot launched three-hour-or-less delivery from its 2,300-plus stores nationwide, with no membership required. This uses stores as local warehouses to serve contractors and do-it-yourself customers faster, which can lift sales and compete better with rivals, a new growth driver.

    This is a new operational initiative that could support future sales and competitive position.

  • Housing and consumer headwinds persist High mortgage rates and weak housing turnover kept big renovation projects depressed, and July housing starts fell below expectations. Goldman Sachs also warned consumer spending growth will slow sharply as tax refund boosts fade. These forces cap how much Home Depot's sales can grow.

    These are the main counterweights explaining why HD's outlook remains muted despite the beat.

  • CEO medical leave adds uncertainty CEO Ted Decker took a temporary medical leave six days before earnings, with no return date. The board named interim leaders, and the stock fell 1.9% on the news. Leadership uncertainty can weigh on shares, though the company still delivered strong results under interim management.

    This is a new event that created short-term uncertainty but did not derail quarterly results.