← Hershey overview

Hershey vs Archer-Daniels-Midland: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Hershey Co (HSY)

Q3 2026
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Hershey's Q3: Cocoa Relief, Salty Snacks Growth, But Demand and Rate Risks Loom

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey's Q2 results beat expectations, with adjusted earnings per share up 57% and operating margin recovering to 23.1%. This showed the company's profitability improving after a period of pressure.

    This is a key positive event that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Salty Snacks Surge and Cocoa Price Drop Salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, helped by the LesserEvil brand, reducing reliance on chocolate. Meanwhile, cocoa prices fell from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, easing cost pressures and supporting margins.

    These are major positive developments that improved Hershey's business mix and cost outlook.

  • Dividend Increase After Five Flat Quarters Hershey raised its dividend to $1.452 per share, ending a stretch of five quarters without an increase. This signaled confidence in cash flow and rewarded income-focused shareholders.

    The dividend hike is a new positive event that can attract income investors.

  • Demand Weakness and Rate Hike Pressure Softer North American confectionery demand and an 8% sales volume drop due to price elasticity raised concerns about growth durability. The Fed's rate-hike signal also pressured dividend stocks like Hershey.

    These are key negative forces that weighed on the stock during the period.

September 2026
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Hershey's Q2 Beat and Dividend Hike Face Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey beat Q2 revenue and profit estimates, with adjusted EPS up 57% and operating margin expanding to 23.1% from 7.4%. This shows the company is recovering from last year's cocoa cost crisis, boosting investor confidence and supporting the stock price.

    This is the core positive driver of the period, showing a sharp turnaround in profitability.

  • Volume Decline on Price Elasticity Despite the profit beat, sales volumes fell 8% as higher prices pushed some customers to buy less. This raises questions about whether the margin recovery can last if volumes keep shrinking, which could cap the stock's upside.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings, showing demand weakness.

  • Dividend Increase Signals Confidence Hershey raised its quarterly dividend to $1.452 per share after five flat quarters. This suggests management is confident in the recovery and rewards income-focused investors, which can attract buyers and support the stock price.

    It is a new capital return event that signals management's confidence.

  • Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks Threaten 2027 Recovery Analysts warned that a Super El Niño could hurt West African cocoa crops, undermining Hershey's plan for cocoa deflation in 2027. Separately, sugar prices rallied 13% in six weeks, adding to input cost pressures. These risks could delay the margin recovery and weigh on the stock.

    It highlights new external cost threats that could reverse the positive earnings trend.

Latest
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Hershey's Q2 Beat and Dividend Hike Face Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey beat Q2 revenue and profit estimates, with adjusted EPS up 57% and operating margin expanding to 23.1% from 7.4%. This shows the company is recovering from last year's cocoa cost crisis, boosting investor confidence and supporting the stock price.

    This is the core positive driver of the period, showing a sharp turnaround in profitability.

  • Volume Decline on Price Elasticity Despite the profit beat, sales volumes fell 8% as higher prices pushed some customers to buy less. This raises questions about whether the margin recovery can last if volumes keep shrinking, which could cap the stock's upside.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings, showing demand weakness.

  • Dividend Increase Signals Confidence Hershey raised its quarterly dividend to $1.452 per share after five flat quarters. This suggests management is confident in the recovery and rewards income-focused investors, which can attract buyers and support the stock price.

    It is a new capital return event that signals management's confidence.

  • Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks Threaten 2027 Recovery Analysts warned that a Super El Niño could hurt West African cocoa crops, undermining Hershey's plan for cocoa deflation in 2027. Separately, sugar prices rallied 13% in six weeks, adding to input cost pressures. These risks could delay the margin recovery and weigh on the stock.

    It highlights new external cost threats that could reverse the positive earnings trend.

July 2026
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Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

  • Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.

    This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.

  • Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.

    It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.

  • Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.

    It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.

  • Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.

    It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

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Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

  • Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.

    This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.

  • Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.

    It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.

  • Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.

    It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.

  • Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.

    It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q3 2026
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ADM Q3: Strong Earnings, But Biofuel Waiver Risk Weighs

  • Q2 Profit Surge and Raised Guidance ADM's Q2 profit jumped to $908 million, and full-year earnings guidance was raised to $5.15–$5.60 per share, signaling strong business momentum.

    This is the core positive event that drove investor optimism during the period.

  • Broad-Based Segment Growth Ag Services profit rose 26% on strong China exports, Nutrition grew 42%, and oilseed crushing profit soared 129%, showing strength across key divisions.

    These segment results explain the operational drivers behind the earnings beat.

  • Cost Savings and Expansion Investment ADM achieved $500–$750 million in cost savings and invested $100 million in crushing expansion, supporting future growth and efficiency.

    These actions underpin the company's ability to sustain profitability and growth.

  • Biofuel Waiver Risk and Share Decline Shares fell 7.7% on concerns over near-term expansion costs and policy uncertainty, especially the EPA's expected doubling of small-refinery biofuel waivers that could cut ethanol and soybean oil demand.

    This is the main negative force that tempered the positive earnings and pressured the stock.

August 2026
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ADM lifts outlook on crushing, ethanol, flavors; EPA waivers pose risk

  • ADM raises 2026 profit outlook ADM raised its 2026 profit outlook to $5.15–$5.60 per share, driven by a 129% jump in oilseed crushing profit, 22% higher Carbohydrate Solutions earnings on ethanol strength, and Flavors growth (up 51%).

    This is the central new development that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock's outlook.

  • ADM plans $100 million crushing expansion ADM plans $100 million in crushing expansion, targets $500–$750 million in cost savings, and is sharpening operations via a new COO and an amino acid joint venture.

    These strategic moves signal future growth and efficiency, supporting the bullish case.

  • EPA biofuel waivers threaten margins The EPA's expected doubling of small-refinery biofuel waivers could cut ethanol and soybean oil demand, squeezing ADM's margins.

    This is a key regulatory risk that could undermine ADM's biofuel-related profits.

Latest
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ADM's profit outlook surges on biofuel and oilseed strength

  • Earnings estimates and guidance keep climbing Analysts raised 2026 earnings estimates, and ADM lifted its own full-year profit forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70, citing finalized biofuel rules, trade and energy prices. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.

    This is the core new reason ADM's price is being pushed up: a sharply higher profit outlook.

  • Oilseed crushing and ethanol profits jump Oilseeds operating profit more than doubled, up 129%, on nearly 5% higher processing volumes and strong soybean meal demand from pork and poultry. Carbohydrate Solutions profit rose 22% on ethanol strength. These are the businesses generating the higher earnings.

    It shows the real operating engine behind the raised outlook, not just analyst optimism.

  • Human Nutrition and Flavors become a growth engine ADM's Flavors business is driving Human Nutrition, with segment operating profit up 51% to $139 million and flavors sales growing about 20% a year in Europe and Asia. This adds a faster-growing, higher-margin business alongside commodity processing.

    It is a new, durable profit driver that supports the bull case beyond biofuel and crush.

  • New COO and amino acid joint venture sharpen operations ADM created a Chief Operating Officer role, appointing Jeff Rowe to improve execution, and agreed to put its Decatur feed-grade amino acid plant into a joint venture with CJ CheilJedang, securing long-term supply and expanding fermentation. Both aim to make operations more efficient and resilient.

    These are new structural moves that could improve execution and future earnings, supporting the stock.

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ADM's biofuel-driven profit surge meets a regulatory threat

  • ADM raises 2026 profit outlook on strong biofuel and crush results ADM lifted its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70 after a strong quarter, with segment profit up 75% and oilseed crushing profit up 129%. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.

    This is the core positive force behind ADM's price right now.

  • EPA biofuel waiver expansion threatens ethanol demand The EPA delayed a compliance deadline and is expected to roughly double small-refinery biofuel waivers, which would free up credits and cut demand for ethanol and soybean oil. That would squeeze ADM's ethanol and oilseed margins, a real counterweight to the profit surge.

    This is the main risk pulling ADM's price down and balances the positive news.

  • ADM invests $100 million to expand US oilseed crushing ADM will spend about $100 million to add 700,000 tons of crush capacity at four plants by 2028–2029, within its existing budget. The expansion signals confidence in strong crushing demand and supports future earnings growth.

    Shows management is putting money behind the strong crush results, supporting the stock.

  • ADM targets $500–$750 million in cost savings ADM aims to cut $500–$750 million in costs over three to five years through efficiency and portfolio simplification, having already saved $200 million in 2025. Lower costs would boost profit and support the earnings outlook.

    A new plan that improves profitability and adds to the positive story.

July 2026
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ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

  • Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.

    This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.

  • Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.

    This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.

  • Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.

    These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.

  • Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.

    This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.

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ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

  • Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.

    This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.

  • Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.

    This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.

  • Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.

    These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.

  • Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.

    This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.