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Humana vs Elevance Health: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Humana Inc (HUM)

Latest
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Humana's Star Ratings Rebound Restores Bonus Payments, Lifting Stock

  • Star Ratings Recovery Restores Bonus Payments CMS upgraded Humana's largest Medicare Advantage contract to 4 stars for 2027, and 95% of members will be in 4-star-plus plans, up from 20%. This restores federal quality bonus payments, boosting future earnings and lifting the stock 15%.

    This is the main new event that directly answers why HUM is moving, with a clear positive impact.

  • Analyst Upgrade on Improved Earnings Outlook Baird upgraded Humana to Outperform with a $596 price target, up from $390, citing confidence in $35-plus of 2028 adjusted EPS. This analyst endorsement reinforces the positive sentiment from the Star Ratings news.

    It shows a direct analyst reaction to the improved fundamentals, supporting the stock's move.

  • Expanded Coverage for Incontinence Device Humana will cover BlueWind Medical's Revi System for urgency urinary incontinence, expanding treatment access for its 11 million Medicare Advantage enrollees. This is a minor positive but shows Humana's role in adopting new technologies.

    It is a new coverage decision that could marginally improve Humana's reputation and member satisfaction.

  • Medicare Advantage Industry Retrenchment Centene is exiting 344 counties and three states for 2027, and Humana plans to exit 57 counties and Minnesota, as premiums are expected to decline 16.5%. This industry-wide pullback reflects ongoing pressure on Medicare Advantage profitability.

    It provides context on the challenging Medicare Advantage environment, a counterweight to the positive Star Ratings news.

Q3 2026
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Humana cuts 2026 profit outlook on star ratings drop

  • Star ratings cut triggers profit outlook reduction Humana lowered its 2026 profit forecast to at least $6.52 per share from $8.36 after fewer Medicare Advantage plans earned four-plus star ratings, reducing federal bonuses. Shares fell about 9% premarket.

    This was the main negative event that drove the stock down during the quarter.

  • Strong Q2 earnings beat and membership growth Q2 adjusted earnings of $7.61 beat estimates by over 20%, with revenue up 26% to $40.9 billion and membership up 20.7%. This shows underlying business strength despite the outlook cut.

    This positive result provided a counterweight to the negative star ratings news.

  • Margin recovery path and expansion offset by headwinds Humana reiterated a path to 3% margins by 2028, with weaker plan exits and Medicaid/home-health expansion. But risks include the end of a $3.6 billion Part D subsidy raising 2027 premiums and 600,000 MA members dropped for 2027.

    This captures the balanced mix of positive strategic progress and negative regulatory/market pressures.

  • Medicare fraud settlement and sector cost pressures A $541.5 million Medicare fraud settlement highlighted upcoding scrutiny, and sector-wide medical cost pressures persist. These add regulatory and financial risks that could weigh on future profits.

    This points to ongoing legal and cost challenges that could affect Humana's financial performance.

September 2026
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Humana cuts 600k MA members, Star Ratings recovery is key catalyst

  • Humana drops 600,000 Medicare Advantage members for 2027 Humana is cutting about 600,000 members from its Medicare Advantage plans next year, its second straight year of big cuts, to protect profit margins as medical costs rise. Fewer members means less premium revenue, which pressures the stock, though it may help margins.

    This is the core new event driving Humana's outlook and was confirmed in this period.

  • Star Ratings recovery targeted as key catalyst Humana aims to return to top-quartile Star Ratings by 2028, which would boost bonus payments and plan economics. Early progress is encouraging, and the October CMS ratings release is the next test. A rebound could support the stock, though shares already trade at a high valuation.

    Star Ratings recovery is a major potential upside driver for Humana's turnaround and margins.

  • Medicare fraud settlement and upcoding scrutiny The Villages Health settled a $541.5 million Medicare fraud case over inflated diagnosis codes. Humana's CenterWell unit is shielded from direct payment, but Humana received inflated payments and is returning overpayments. The case signals heightened government scrutiny on risk-adjustment practices, a regulatory risk for Humana.

    This highlights a regulatory overhang that could affect Humana's payments and reputation.

  • Sector-wide cost pressures and macro headwinds Managed care stocks, including Humana, fell after CVS Health warned of elevated medical costs. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields added to market pressure. These sector-wide concerns weigh on Humana's stock, though they are not specific to the company.

    This explains a broad negative sentiment affecting Humana's price during the period.

▼3▲1

Humana cuts 600k MA members, Star Ratings recovery is key catalyst

  • Humana drops 600,000 Medicare Advantage members for 2027 Humana is cutting about 600,000 members from its Medicare Advantage plans next year, its second straight year of big cuts, to protect profit margins as medical costs rise. Fewer members means less premium revenue, which pressures the stock, though it may help margins.

    This is the core new event driving Humana's outlook and was confirmed in this period.

  • Star Ratings recovery targeted as key catalyst Humana aims to return to top-quartile Star Ratings by 2028, which would boost bonus payments and plan economics. Early progress is encouraging, and the October CMS ratings release is the next test. A rebound could support the stock, though shares already trade at a high valuation.

    Star Ratings recovery is a major potential upside driver for Humana's turnaround and margins.

  • Medicare fraud settlement and upcoding scrutiny The Villages Health settled a $541.5 million Medicare fraud case over inflated diagnosis codes. Humana's CenterWell unit is shielded from direct payment, but Humana received inflated payments and is returning overpayments. The case signals heightened government scrutiny on risk-adjustment practices, a regulatory risk for Humana.

    This highlights a regulatory overhang that could affect Humana's payments and reputation.

  • Sector-wide cost pressures and macro headwinds Managed care stocks, including Humana, fell after CVS Health warned of elevated medical costs. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields added to market pressure. These sector-wide concerns weigh on Humana's stock, though they are not specific to the company.

    This explains a broad negative sentiment affecting Humana's price during the period.

July 2026
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Humana cuts profit outlook on lower star ratings; Q2 beat and growth plans

  • Medicare star rating drop cuts 2026 profit outlook Humana lowered its full-year GAAP earnings target to at least $6.52 per share from $8.36 because fewer plans earned four stars or more, reducing federal quality bonuses. This directly cuts expected profit and is the main reason the stock fell about 9% premarket.

    This is the biggest new negative event and explains the profit outlook cut.

  • Q2 earnings beat on membership and revenue growth Humana reported adjusted earnings of $7.61 per share, beating estimates by over 20%, with revenue up 26% to $40.9 billion and medical membership up 20.7% to 17.9 million. Strong results show the core business is growing, which supports the stock.

    This is a new positive counterweight to the profit outlook cut.

  • End of Medicare Part D subsidy raises 2027 premiums The Trump administration ended a subsidy that gave insurers about $3.6 billion in 2026. Without it, most enrollees will pay more in 2027, and insurers like Humana may see lower government payments and pressure on Part D margins, which is a negative for future profits.

    This is a new regulatory change that affects Humana's future Medicare Part D business.

  • Operational streamlining and growth initiatives Humana is targeting a 3% margin by 2028, exiting weaker Medicare Advantage plans, and expanding Medicaid and home health through a $900 million divestiture and the MaxHealth acquisition. These moves aim to improve long-term profitability and offset star rating issues.

    This shows management's plan to fix margins and grow, which is new and relevant to the big picture.

▲2▼2

Humana cuts profit outlook on lower star ratings; Q2 beat and growth plans

  • Medicare star rating drop cuts 2026 profit outlook Humana lowered its full-year GAAP earnings target to at least $6.52 per share from $8.36 because fewer plans earned four stars or more, reducing federal quality bonuses. This directly cuts expected profit and is the main reason the stock fell about 9% premarket.

    This is the biggest new negative event and explains the profit outlook cut.

  • Q2 earnings beat on membership and revenue growth Humana reported adjusted earnings of $7.61 per share, beating estimates by over 20%, with revenue up 26% to $40.9 billion and medical membership up 20.7% to 17.9 million. Strong results show the core business is growing, which supports the stock.

    This is a new positive counterweight to the profit outlook cut.

  • End of Medicare Part D subsidy raises 2027 premiums The Trump administration ended a subsidy that gave insurers about $3.6 billion in 2026. Without it, most enrollees will pay more in 2027, and insurers like Humana may see lower government payments and pressure on Part D margins, which is a negative for future profits.

    This is a new regulatory change that affects Humana's future Medicare Part D business.

  • Operational streamlining and growth initiatives Humana is targeting a 3% margin by 2028, exiting weaker Medicare Advantage plans, and expanding Medicaid and home health through a $900 million divestiture and the MaxHealth acquisition. These moves aim to improve long-term profitability and offset star rating issues.

    This shows management's plan to fix margins and grow, which is new and relevant to the big picture.

Q2 2026
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Humana wins Medicaid, pushes margin recovery, CenterWell grows

  • Illinois Medicaid win expands members Humana won a statewide Illinois Medicaid contract, adding members across all 102 counties starting January 2027. More members mean more premium revenue, which supports future earnings and makes the stock more attractive.

    New contract directly expands Humana's revenue base.

  • AI gains may be competed away UBS says hospitals may benefit more from AI than insurers because insurers' efficiency gains are easily copied and competed away through pricing. This limits how much Humana can improve margins from AI, a headwind for profit growth.

    Analyst view questions durability of insurer AI margin gains.

  • Medicare Advantage denial scrutiny A New York Times report highlighted high denial rates for rehab care among major Medicare Advantage insurers, including Humana. This raises regulatory and reputational risk, which could lead to stricter rules or fines, pressuring the stock.

    Regulatory scrutiny can hurt Humana's Medicare Advantage business.

  • Margin recovery plan and strong Q1 Humana beat Q1 earnings estimates and targets insurance margins above 3% by 2028, with disciplined pricing and cost cuts. Strong results and a clear profit plan boost investor confidence, pushing the stock up.

    New earnings and margin targets show improving profitability.

  • CenterWell drives growth beyond insurance CenterWell revenue jumped 19.7% to $6.1 billion, with growth in primary care, home health, and pharmacy. This diversification reduces reliance on insurance and adds a steady profit stream, supporting the stock.

    CenterWell's strong growth is a key new driver of Humana's value.

June 2026
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Humana wins Medicaid, pushes margin recovery, CenterWell grows

  • Illinois Medicaid win expands members Humana won a statewide Illinois Medicaid contract, adding members across all 102 counties starting January 2027. More members mean more premium revenue, which supports future earnings and makes the stock more attractive.

    New contract directly expands Humana's revenue base.

  • AI gains may be competed away UBS says hospitals may benefit more from AI than insurers because insurers' efficiency gains are easily copied and competed away through pricing. This limits how much Humana can improve margins from AI, a headwind for profit growth.

    Analyst view questions durability of insurer AI margin gains.

  • Medicare Advantage denial scrutiny A New York Times report highlighted high denial rates for rehab care among major Medicare Advantage insurers, including Humana. This raises regulatory and reputational risk, which could lead to stricter rules or fines, pressuring the stock.

    Regulatory scrutiny can hurt Humana's Medicare Advantage business.

  • Margin recovery plan and strong Q1 Humana beat Q1 earnings estimates and targets insurance margins above 3% by 2028, with disciplined pricing and cost cuts. Strong results and a clear profit plan boost investor confidence, pushing the stock up.

    New earnings and margin targets show improving profitability.

  • CenterWell drives growth beyond insurance CenterWell revenue jumped 19.7% to $6.1 billion, with growth in primary care, home health, and pharmacy. This diversification reduces reliance on insurance and adds a steady profit stream, supporting the stock.

    CenterWell's strong growth is a key new driver of Humana's value.

▲3▼2

Humana wins Medicaid, pushes margin recovery, CenterWell grows

  • Illinois Medicaid win expands members Humana won a statewide Illinois Medicaid contract, adding members across all 102 counties starting January 2027. More members mean more premium revenue, which supports future earnings and makes the stock more attractive.

    New contract directly expands Humana's revenue base.

  • AI gains may be competed away UBS says hospitals may benefit more from AI than insurers because insurers' efficiency gains are easily copied and competed away through pricing. This limits how much Humana can improve margins from AI, a headwind for profit growth.

    Analyst view questions durability of insurer AI margin gains.

  • Medicare Advantage denial scrutiny A New York Times report highlighted high denial rates for rehab care among major Medicare Advantage insurers, including Humana. This raises regulatory and reputational risk, which could lead to stricter rules or fines, pressuring the stock.

    Regulatory scrutiny can hurt Humana's Medicare Advantage business.

  • Margin recovery plan and strong Q1 Humana beat Q1 earnings estimates and targets insurance margins above 3% by 2028, with disciplined pricing and cost cuts. Strong results and a clear profit plan boost investor confidence, pushing the stock up.

    New earnings and margin targets show improving profitability.

  • CenterWell drives growth beyond insurance CenterWell revenue jumped 19.7% to $6.1 billion, with growth in primary care, home health, and pharmacy. This diversification reduces reliance on insurance and adds a steady profit stream, supporting the stock.

    CenterWell's strong growth is a key new driver of Humana's value.

Elevance Health Inc (ELV)

Q3 2026
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Elevance beats Q2, raises guidance, but Medicaid losses and member drop weigh

  • Q2 earnings beat and raised 2026 guidance Elevance beat Q2 earnings and raised its 2026 profit outlook to at least $27 per share, backed by $4.3 billion in quarterly operating cash flow, buybacks, and dividends.

    This is the main positive event that drove the stock during the period.

  • Medicaid margins turn negative, prompting market exits Medicaid margins turned negative at -1.75%, forcing Elevance to exit some markets. This raises concerns about profitability in government programs and pressures the stock.

    This is a key negative development that hurt investor sentiment.

  • Suing CMS over $115M in lost Medicare Advantage bonuses Elevance is suing CMS over $115 million in lost Medicare Advantage bonuses. The lawsuit adds regulatory uncertainty and could affect future earnings if not resolved favorably.

    This new legal action is a notable negative factor for the stock.

  • Q3 earnings expected down ~30% year-over-year, stock falls 7.4% Q3 earnings are expected to drop about 30% from a year ago, and the stock fell 7.4% despite a $49.83 billion revenue beat. The company also lost 469,000 members.

    This captures the market's negative reaction and the member loss, which are new developments.

August 2026
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Elevance's 2026 profit squeeze may be bottoming as 2027 recovery bets build

  • 2026 earnings forecast cut, but stock already ran Analysts now expect Elevance to earn $6.18 a share this quarter, down about 30% from a year ago, with revenue forecasts also slipping. That is the near-term drag. But the stock had already climbed 33.6% in 90 days, so much of the bad news may be priced in.

    This is the core reason the stock is under pressure: falling profit expectations for 2026.

  • Margins seen bottoming in 2026, recovery in 2027 Greenskeeper Asset Management says Elevance's operating margins may have hit bottom this year. Medical cost inflation is stabilizing, government payment updates are better than feared, and the company is repricing plans to match costs. That sets up an earnings rebound in 2027, which is why long-term investors are looking past this year's weak profit.

    This explains the bull case: the profit downturn is temporary and a recovery is coming next year.

  • Industry cost trends split: some relief, some pressure UnitedHealth's medical costs fell sharply, helping its earnings and lifting the whole managed-care group. But CVS Health warned that its medical costs remain high, which dragged Elevance and peers down. Elevance's own cost ratio rose slightly, yet it still raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $27 a share. The picture is uneven.

    Shows the tug-of-war on medical costs that directly drives Elevance's profit and stock price.

  • Lost 469,000 members even as revenue beat Elevance beat revenue expectations with $49.83 billion, but lost 469,000 customers and the stock fell 7.4%. Losing members shrinks the base of people paying premiums, which matters more for future growth than a one-quarter revenue beat. Investors focused on the membership decline.

    Membership loss is a concrete negative that pressures future revenue and the stock.

Latest
▼2▲1

Elevance's 2026 profit squeeze may be bottoming as 2027 recovery bets build

  • 2026 earnings forecast cut, but stock already ran Analysts now expect Elevance to earn $6.18 a share this quarter, down about 30% from a year ago, with revenue forecasts also slipping. That is the near-term drag. But the stock had already climbed 33.6% in 90 days, so much of the bad news may be priced in.

    This is the core reason the stock is under pressure: falling profit expectations for 2026.

  • Margins seen bottoming in 2026, recovery in 2027 Greenskeeper Asset Management says Elevance's operating margins may have hit bottom this year. Medical cost inflation is stabilizing, government payment updates are better than feared, and the company is repricing plans to match costs. That sets up an earnings rebound in 2027, which is why long-term investors are looking past this year's weak profit.

    This explains the bull case: the profit downturn is temporary and a recovery is coming next year.

  • Industry cost trends split: some relief, some pressure UnitedHealth's medical costs fell sharply, helping its earnings and lifting the whole managed-care group. But CVS Health warned that its medical costs remain high, which dragged Elevance and peers down. Elevance's own cost ratio rose slightly, yet it still raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $27 a share. The picture is uneven.

    Shows the tug-of-war on medical costs that directly drives Elevance's profit and stock price.

  • Lost 469,000 members even as revenue beat Elevance beat revenue expectations with $49.83 billion, but lost 469,000 customers and the stock fell 7.4%. Losing members shrinks the base of people paying premiums, which matters more for future growth than a one-quarter revenue beat. Investors focused on the membership decline.

    Membership loss is a concrete negative that pressures future revenue and the stock.

July 2026
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Elevance beats Q2 but Medicaid margin drag and CMS lawsuit weigh

  • Medicaid margin turns negative, exits planned Elevance's Medicaid business is losing money, with a full-year margin of about -1.75%. The company is exiting Washington D.C. and more markets over 12-18 months. This drags overall profit and makes the 2027 growth target uncertain, pushing the stock down.

    This is the core reason the stock fell after earnings and is the main new negative force.

  • Elevance sues CMS over $115M Medicare Advantage bonus Elevance is suing Medicare's agency for recalculating a rival's star ratings after the fact, costing Elevance $115 million in bonus payments. The lawsuit adds regulatory uncertainty and could delay or reduce future bonus money, weighing on the stock.

    This is a new legal and regulatory risk that directly affects a revenue source.

  • Q2 earnings beat and guidance raised Elevance reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $7.45 per share, about 20% above estimates, and raised full-year guidance to at least $27.00. Revenue also beat. This shows the core business is stronger than expected, which supports the stock price.

    This is the main positive new event that initially lifted the stock before the Medicaid concerns took over.

  • Strong cash flow and buybacks support shares Elevance generated $4.3 billion in operating cash flow last quarter, expects at least $5.5 billion this year, and is buying back stock and paying dividends. This steady return of cash can cushion the stock and signals confidence.

    This is a new capital-return update that provides a positive counterweight to the margin issues.

▲2▼2

Elevance beats Q2 but Medicaid margin drag and CMS lawsuit weigh

  • Medicaid margin turns negative, exits planned Elevance's Medicaid business is losing money, with a full-year margin of about -1.75%. The company is exiting Washington D.C. and more markets over 12-18 months. This drags overall profit and makes the 2027 growth target uncertain, pushing the stock down.

    This is the core reason the stock fell after earnings and is the main new negative force.

  • Elevance sues CMS over $115M Medicare Advantage bonus Elevance is suing Medicare's agency for recalculating a rival's star ratings after the fact, costing Elevance $115 million in bonus payments. The lawsuit adds regulatory uncertainty and could delay or reduce future bonus money, weighing on the stock.

    This is a new legal and regulatory risk that directly affects a revenue source.

  • Q2 earnings beat and guidance raised Elevance reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $7.45 per share, about 20% above estimates, and raised full-year guidance to at least $27.00. Revenue also beat. This shows the core business is stronger than expected, which supports the stock price.

    This is the main positive new event that initially lifted the stock before the Medicaid concerns took over.

  • Strong cash flow and buybacks support shares Elevance generated $4.3 billion in operating cash flow last quarter, expects at least $5.5 billion this year, and is buying back stock and paying dividends. This steady return of cash can cushion the stock and signals confidence.

    This is a new capital-return update that provides a positive counterweight to the margin issues.

Q2 2026
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Elevance pushes tech and housing to offset regulatory and cost risks

  • Health OS cuts prior authorization denials by 61% Elevance's Health OS platform reduced prior authorization denials by 61% and sped up reviews, with over 30 health systems participating. This lowers administrative costs and improves efficiency, which can boost profit margins and support the stock price.

    This is a new operational improvement that directly lowers costs and supports earnings growth.

  • Carelon drives future earnings growth Carelon now makes up 36.3% of Elevance's revenue and uses AI to cut hospital readmissions by 20%. The company raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $26.75 per share, showing confidence in this growth engine.

    Carelon's growing contribution and raised guidance are key positive drivers for future earnings.

  • CNSide deal expands covered lives to 45.4 million Elevance signed a national agreement with CNSide Diagnostics to offer a tumor cell test to about 45.4 million covered lives. This expands its service offerings and could attract more members, supporting revenue growth.

    New partnership expands covered lives and service portfolio, a direct demand driver.

  • No Surprises Act arbitration awards far exceed in-network rates An Elevance study found arbitration awards for planned procedures are often 50 times higher than in-network rates, raising costs. This could lead to regulatory scrutiny or policy changes that hurt insurers' profits.

    This highlights a regulatory and cost risk that could negatively impact Elevance's margins.

June 2026
▲3▼1

Elevance pushes tech and housing to offset regulatory and cost risks

  • Health OS cuts prior authorization denials by 61% Elevance's Health OS platform reduced prior authorization denials by 61% and sped up reviews, with over 30 health systems participating. This lowers administrative costs and improves efficiency, which can boost profit margins and support the stock price.

    This is a new operational improvement that directly lowers costs and supports earnings growth.

  • Carelon drives future earnings growth Carelon now makes up 36.3% of Elevance's revenue and uses AI to cut hospital readmissions by 20%. The company raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $26.75 per share, showing confidence in this growth engine.

    Carelon's growing contribution and raised guidance are key positive drivers for future earnings.

  • CNSide deal expands covered lives to 45.4 million Elevance signed a national agreement with CNSide Diagnostics to offer a tumor cell test to about 45.4 million covered lives. This expands its service offerings and could attract more members, supporting revenue growth.

    New partnership expands covered lives and service portfolio, a direct demand driver.

  • No Surprises Act arbitration awards far exceed in-network rates An Elevance study found arbitration awards for planned procedures are often 50 times higher than in-network rates, raising costs. This could lead to regulatory scrutiny or policy changes that hurt insurers' profits.

    This highlights a regulatory and cost risk that could negatively impact Elevance's margins.

▲3▼1

Elevance pushes tech and housing to offset regulatory and cost risks

  • Health OS cuts prior authorization denials by 61% Elevance's Health OS platform reduced prior authorization denials by 61% and sped up reviews, with over 30 health systems participating. This lowers administrative costs and improves efficiency, which can boost profit margins and support the stock price.

    This is a new operational improvement that directly lowers costs and supports earnings growth.

  • Carelon drives future earnings growth Carelon now makes up 36.3% of Elevance's revenue and uses AI to cut hospital readmissions by 20%. The company raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $26.75 per share, showing confidence in this growth engine.

    Carelon's growing contribution and raised guidance are key positive drivers for future earnings.

  • CNSide deal expands covered lives to 45.4 million Elevance signed a national agreement with CNSide Diagnostics to offer a tumor cell test to about 45.4 million covered lives. This expands its service offerings and could attract more members, supporting revenue growth.

    New partnership expands covered lives and service portfolio, a direct demand driver.

  • No Surprises Act arbitration awards far exceed in-network rates An Elevance study found arbitration awards for planned procedures are often 50 times higher than in-network rates, raising costs. This could lead to regulatory scrutiny or policy changes that hurt insurers' profits.

    This highlights a regulatory and cost risk that could negatively impact Elevance's margins.