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Why is International Business Machines (IBM) moving?

Q3 2026
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IBM's quantum wins offset by record earnings crash and guidance cut

  • Quantum computing advances IBM reached 70 logical qubits, won a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, and was selected by DARPA, strengthening its position in next-generation computing.

    These concrete quantum milestones are new and support future growth prospects.

  • AI partnerships and product launches IBM expanded AI partnerships with OpenAI, Together AI, NASA, Lockheed Martin, and SWIFT, and launched z17/LinuxONE mainframes, while raising its dividend for the 31st straight year.

    New partnerships and products show ongoing innovation and shareholder returns.

  • Record earnings crash and guidance cut Q2 earnings missed expectations, causing a record 25% stock crash and $68B value loss. IBM cut guidance and faced securities-fraud investigations, an HSBC downgrade, and breakup speculation.

    This was the dominant negative event of the quarter, severely impacting investor confidence.

  • Operational weaknesses and cautious analysts Customer losses, deteriorating spending intentions, stalled software growth, an 8% drop in Transaction Processing, and a mainframe revenue shortfall weighed on results. Analysts remain cautious on slow growth and execution.

    These underlying business challenges explain the weak performance and cautious outlook.

September 2026
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IBM's quantum wins offset by mainframe shortfall and legal probe

  • Quantum and AI contract wins IBM won a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, an EU supercomputer storage contract, and DARPA selection, plus new partnerships with NASA, Lockheed Martin, and SWIFT. These bolster its long-term technology leadership.

    These major wins are new this period and support IBM's growth narrative.

  • Dividend increase and AI governance push IBM raised its dividend for the 31st straight year and expanded AI governance and digital asset offerings for regulated clients. The dividend hike signals confidence, though the increase was minimal.

    This is a new shareholder-friendly action and product expansion this period.

  • Mainframe revenue shortfall and securities probe A Z mainframe revenue shortfall triggered a securities investigation and a $68B market value loss. This raises legal and regulatory concerns and weighs on investor sentiment.

    This is a major new negative event that drove the stock down this period.

  • Stalled software growth and analyst caution Software organic growth stalled with Transaction Processing down 8%, and analysts remain cautious on slow growth and execution. This adds to concerns about future revenue and profitability.

    This new data point highlights ongoing operational challenges this period.

Latest
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IBM's quantum and AI sovereignty push advances, but mainframe probe and weak software linger

  • IBM's quantum computing leadership gets major validation IBM launched a quantum hub at ETH Zurich with Lockheed Martin, reported quantum wafer production, and was selected by DARPA to lead Stage C of its fault-tolerant quantum computing program. These milestones reinforce IBM's long-term technology edge, supporting investor confidence in future revenue.

    This is a new, concrete development that strengthens IBM's growth narrative and differentiates it from peers.

  • IBM expands AI and digital asset offerings for regulated clients IBM rolled out self-hosted deployment for its IBM Bob AI development platform and launched an on-premises version of Digital Asset Haven with SWIFT ledger connectivity. These moves target banks and governments needing tight data control, opening new revenue streams and boosting IBM's competitive position.

    These are new product launches that directly address growing demand for AI sovereignty and could drive future software and infrastructure sales.

  • Mainframe revenue shortfall triggers securities investigation Hagens Berman is investigating IBM over disclosures related to a Z mainframe revenue shortfall that caused a $68 billion market value loss. The probe raises regulatory and legal risks, potentially leading to fines or restatements, which weighs on investor sentiment and the stock price.

    This is a new negative development that introduces uncertainty and could materially impact IBM's financial and reputational standing.

  • Dividend increase and analyst caution reflect balanced outlook IBM raised its dividend for the 31st straight year, but only by a penny, signaling slow growth. Meanwhile, Jim Cramer reiterated a wait-a-quarter stance after IBM's Q2 miss, highlighting ongoing concerns about execution and software weakness.

    These points show the tension between IBM's income appeal and its near-term challenges, giving a fair picture of the investment case.

▲3▼1

IBM's quantum foundry and AI governance deals advance, but software growth stalls

  • Quantum foundry funding finalized and production begins IBM's Anderon venture finalized a $1 billion CHIPS Act award, with IBM adding $1 billion, and started making quantum wafers. This government backing and early production validate IBM's quantum leadership, supporting future revenue and lifting investor confidence.

    This is a major new funding and production milestone that directly boosts IBM's long-term growth prospects.

  • AI governance tools and partnerships expand IBM shipped its AgentOps Agent for watsonx Orchestrate and partnered with CUBE to add regulatory intelligence to watsonx.governance. These moves strengthen IBM's AI governance offerings, attracting enterprise customers and supporting software revenue growth.

    New product launches and partnerships in AI governance show IBM is innovating to capture demand in a growing market.

  • Expanded mainframe and watsonx deal with Kredi Kayıt Bürosu IBM expanded its deal with Turkey's Kredi Kayıt Bürosu to deploy watsonx and mainframe tech into a platform handling 8.5 billion transactions annually. This concrete win shows demand for IBM's high-end systems in mission-critical financial workloads.

    A new customer expansion demonstrates real-world adoption of IBM's technology, supporting future revenue.

  • Software organic growth stalls as budgets shift to hardware IBM's Software organic revenue growth was flat in Q2, with Transaction Processing down 8%, as customers shifted spending to servers and memory. This slowdown pressures IBM's high-margin software business and may continue to weigh on earnings.

    This is a key negative trend that explains why IBM's core software business is struggling, balancing the positive quantum news.

▲4

IBM's quantum and AI push gains fresh wins, but core business still soft

  • EU supercomputer contract includes IBM storage The EU awarded Bull a €388M contract to build an AI supercomputer that will integrate IBM storage. This is a concrete order for IBM's hardware, showing its technology is chosen for large-scale AI projects and supporting future revenue.

    A new, specific contract win that directly benefits IBM's storage business.

  • IBM Ventures invests in BQP as bookings climb 8x IBM Ventures took a stake in BQP, a company whose software speeds up physics calculations and whose bookings have grown eightfold. This small investment extends IBM's quantum ecosystem and signals confidence in early-stage quantum-adjacent technology.

    New investment shows IBM's ongoing commitment to quantum and its ecosystem.

  • IBM wins $1B quantum foundry award, largest share of federal effort IBM received $1 billion from the CHIPS Act to build a quantum chip foundry in Albany, the biggest award among nine companies. This government backing validates IBM's quantum leadership and funds long-term development, boosting investor confidence.

    New confirmation of IBM's leading position in federal quantum funding.

  • IBM quantum and AI research wins recognition and new partners IBM's quantum processors powered a Gordon Bell Prize finalist simulation, and IBM launched a Swiss quantum hub with Lockheed Martin plus an open-source lunar AI model with NASA. These highlight IBM's cutting-edge technology and expand its ecosystem, supporting long-term growth.

    Multiple new developments showcase IBM's innovation and partnership momentum.

August 2026
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IBM's record crash masks quantum and AI progress

  • Deteriorating Spending Intentions Bernstein survey data shows IBM's spending intentions deteriorating, threatening high-margin businesses. This adds to concerns about future revenue and profitability.

    It highlights a new negative signal about customer demand that pressures IBM's stock.

  • Quantum and AI Advancements IBM published a quantum-centric supercomputing reference architecture, expects quantum advantage by 2026, acquired HRL Laboratories, and unveiled a dual-architecture Arm mainframe processor. These reinforce long-term technology leadership.

    These innovations support IBM's long-term growth prospects despite near-term challenges.

  • Strategic Partnerships and Funding IBM advanced AI partnerships with Together AI and OpenAI, formed a European banking platform venture with Accenture and UniCredit, and received a $1B foundry award. These bolster its ecosystem and financial position.

    These partnerships and funding provide positive momentum and validate IBM's strategy.

▲2▼2

IBM's Q2 Miss and AI Budget Shift Hit Stock, but Quantum and Mainframe Advances Offer Hope

  • Q2 Revenue Miss and Profit Warning IBM pre-announced Q2 revenue of $17.2B and EPS of $2.93, missing estimates. Clients shifted budgets to AI hardware like servers and memory, delaying software and mainframe deals. The stock plunged 25%, its worst day since 1987, as the slowdown is real and pressures future revenue.

    This is the main negative event that drove IBM's stock down sharply this period.

  • Enterprise Budget Shift to AI Hardware CIOs are redirecting spending to servers, storage, and memory ahead of price hikes, starving IBM's high-margin software and mainframe business. A Bernstein survey shows IBM's net spending intentions deeply negative and deteriorating, suggesting the trend may persist and threaten future margins.

    This explains the underlying cause of IBM's revenue miss and why it may continue.

  • Quantum Computing Breakthroughs and Investments IBM published the first reference architecture for quantum-centric supercomputing, expects quantum advantage by 2026, and completed the acquisition of HRL Laboratories to boost quantum hardware. These advances reinforce IBM's long-term tech leadership and open a potential trillion-dollar market by the late 2030s.

    Quantum progress is a key positive driver that could offset current weakness and lift future revenue.

  • New Mainframe Processor and AI Partnerships IBM unveiled the first dual-architecture mainframe processor with Arm, bringing 22 million developers to its platform, and expanded AI partnerships like the $240M deal with Together AI and OpenAI collaboration. These innovations support future demand for IBM's hardware and cloud services.

    These product launches and partnerships show IBM's ongoing innovation and ability to attract customers.

▲3

IBM's quantum and AI deals advance while mainframe slump and legal risk linger

  • Quantum roadmap milestones and $1B foundry award IBM cooled two modular cryogenic systems toward a 2029 fault-tolerant quantum computer, and won a $1B government award to anchor a quantum chip foundry in Albany. These advances support IBM's long-term technology leadership and future revenue potential, lifting investor optimism.

    This is a major new positive development that directly addresses IBM's growth narrative and counters recent negativity.

  • AI partnerships and cloud deals gain traction IBM signed a $240M multi-year deal with Together AI to build an AI inference cluster on IBM Cloud and joined OpenAI's elite partner tier to embed frontier models into IBM Consulting. These deals boost demand for IBM's cloud and consulting services, supporting future revenue growth.

    New customer wins and partnerships show IBM is capturing AI demand, a key driver for future revenue.

  • Accenture-UniCredit-IBM banking platform venture Accenture took a majority stake in a joint venture with UniCredit and IBM to build a next-generation banking platform in Europe, with IBM modernizing the bank's technology stack. This multi-year initiative supports IBM's consulting and services revenue.

    A new deal that demonstrates demand for IBM's services and strengthens its European presence.

July 2026
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IBM's Q2 Miss Triggers Record 25% Crash, Clouding Quantum Gains

  • Q2 Earnings Miss and Record Crash IBM's preliminary Q2 results missed expectations, causing a record 25% stock crash that wiped $68 billion in value. Enterprise budgets shifted toward AI hardware, starving high-margin software and mainframe revenue.

    This was the dominant negative event that drove IBM's price during the period.

  • Guidance Cut and Legal Troubles IBM cut its 2026 growth guidance and faced securities-fraud investigations, an HSBC downgrade, breakup speculation, and customer losses like Starbucks. These added pressure on the stock.

    These developments compounded the negative sentiment and affected IBM's outlook.

  • Quantum Computing Advancements IBM advanced quantum computing with breakthroughs in fusion-energy simulation, 70 logical qubits, and the HRL Laboratories acquisition. These reinforced IBM's long-term technology leadership.

    Quantum progress was a key positive driver amid the volatility.

  • AI Partnerships and Government Support IBM expanded AI partnerships with Together AI and OpenAI, saw cybersecurity demand, launched new z17/LinuxONE mainframes, and received $874M in CHIPS Act support. These bolstered its outlook.

    These positive developments provided a counterweight to the negative news.

▲2

IBM's AI pivot gains traction, but mainframe slump and legal risks persist

  • IBM expands AI partnerships and cloud deals IBM signed a $240M multi-year deal with Together AI to build an AI inference cluster on IBM Cloud and partnered with OpenAI to bring its models to enterprise clients. These moves boost demand for IBM's cloud and consulting services, supporting future revenue growth.

    New partnerships and deals directly address IBM's growth challenges and show progress in AI commercialization.

  • Quantum computing timeline and investments CEO Krishna said quantum will impact earnings by 2028-2029 and unlock a trillion-dollar market by the late 2030s. IBM plans to invest over $10B in quantum over five years, reinforcing its long-term technology leadership and offering a potential new revenue stream.

    This is a new, forward-looking catalyst that could drive future growth and investor optimism.

▼3▲1

IBM's Q2 Miss Confirmed; AI Hardware Shift and Legal Risks Loom

  • Q2 Revenue Miss Confirmed, Stock Plunges 24% IBM's preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2B missed estimates, sending shares down 24%—the worst day since 1987. Clients shifted spending to AI hardware, delaying software and mainframe deals. This confirms the slowdown is real and pressures the stock.

    This is the core event that drove IBM's price down this period.

  • Enterprise Budgets Shift to AI Hardware, Starving Software Clients redirected budgets to servers, storage, and memory ahead of price hikes, starving IBM's high-margin software and mainframe business. This trend may persist, threatening future revenue and margins as AI infrastructure soaks up IT budgets.

    Explains the fundamental driver behind the revenue miss and future risk.

  • Securities Fraud Investigations and Downgrades Mount Law firms are investigating IBM for potential securities fraud over its prior upbeat Z mainframe outlook. HSBC downgraded to Reduce with a $191 target. These add regulatory and reputational risk, weighing on investor confidence and the stock price.

    Highlights legal and analyst pressures that could further depress the stock.

  • CHIPS Act Funding Provides Long-Term Support The Trump administration awarded $874M in CHIPS Act incentives to seven companies, following IBM's $1B award in May. This government support for semiconductor R&D could benefit IBM's quantum and AI hardware initiatives, offering a positive counterweight.

    Shows a potential positive factor amid the negative news.

▲3

IBM's Quantum Leap and AI Security Demand Offset Mainframe Weakness

  • Quantum advantage breakthroughs IBM and partners achieved quantum advantage with 70 logical qubits and in materials simulation, proving commercial viability. This strengthens IBM's tech leadership and future revenue potential, lifting the stock.

    Major new technological milestone that boosts IBM's long-term growth prospects.

  • AI security demand surge IBM's report shows AI-enabled breaches cost $6M on average, driving demand for IBM's security solutions. This supports high-margin software and consulting revenue, pushing the stock up.

    New data highlights growing market for IBM's security offerings.

  • CEO reassures on AI risk CEO Krishna said only 2% of IBM's software faces AI replacement risk, easing fears about AI cannibalization. This helps stabilize investor confidence after the crash.

    Direct response to a key concern that caused the selloff.

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IBM Cuts Outlook After Historic Crash; Quantum Bet Offers Hope

  • IBM slashes 2026 revenue growth forecast IBM cut its full-year revenue growth outlook to 4–5% from over 5%, after Q2 revenue rose just 1% to $17.16B and adjusted EPS of $2.93 missed estimates. Mainframe Z sales plunged 42% as customers shifted budgets to AI hardware. This confirms the slowdown is real, pressuring the stock.

    The formal guidance cut is new and directly explains why IBM's price remains under pressure.

  • Breakup speculation and securities fraud probes mount After the crash, Wall Street floated breaking up IBM, with Stifel valuing parts at $257B versus a $205B market cap. Law firms including Pomerantz and Bleichmar Fonti & Auld are investigating possible securities fraud over IBM Z outlook statements. These add uncertainty and legal risk, weighing on shares.

    Breakup talk and new fraud investigations are fresh developments that affect investor confidence and valuation.

  • IBM buys HRL Laboratories to expand quantum portfolio IBM agreed to acquire HRL Laboratories, a quantum research lab owned by Boeing and GM, adding electron spin qubit technology alongside its superconducting approach. This strengthens IBM's long-term quantum leadership and R&D pipeline, offering a positive counterweight to the recent bad news.

    The HRL acquisition is a new, concrete positive event that shows IBM still investing in future growth.

  • Q2 results match warning; stock stabilizes slightly IBM's official Q2 report matched its earlier warning, with revenue of $17.16B and EPS of $2.93. The stock rose about 2% after hours as the numbers were not worse than feared, and analysts noted IBM's issue is more company-specific than the broad AI spending concerns hitting Alphabet and Tesla.

    The market's muted reaction to the final Q2 report shows the bad news was already priced in, a key nuance for investors.

▼4

IBM's Historic Crash: Q2 Miss Exposes AI Spending Shift

  • Preliminary Q2 Miss Triggers Record Selloff IBM pre-announced Q2 revenue of $17.2B and EPS of $2.93, missing estimates. Shares plunged over 25%—worst day ever—wiping $68B in value. The miss was driven by clients shifting spending to AI hardware, delaying large software and mainframe deals.

    This is the core new event that directly caused IBM's massive price drop and answers why the stock is moving.

  • Enterprise Budgets Shift to AI Hardware, Cannibalizing Software Clients redirected spending toward servers, storage, and memory ahead of price hikes, starving IBM's high-margin software and mainframe business. This trend may persist, threatening future revenue and margins as AI infrastructure demand soaks up IT budgets.

    Explains the fundamental driver behind the miss and why it could continue to pressure IBM's price.

  • Securities Fraud Investigations and Downgrades Law firms are investigating IBM for potential securities fraud over its prior upbeat Z mainframe outlook. HSBC downgraded to Reduce with a $191 target. These add regulatory and reputational risk, weighing on investor confidence and the stock price.

    New legal and analyst actions directly affect IBM's risk profile and price.

  • Customer Losses and Cautious Analyst Commentary Starbucks plans to replace IBM software with in-house AI tools, and Jim Cramer warned the spending shift may not reverse. These signal weakening demand and could lead to further revenue declines, keeping pressure on IBM's stock.

    New evidence of demand erosion and negative sentiment that could drive IBM's price lower.

▲3

IBM Extends Rally on Quantum, New Mainframes, and Security Demand

  • Quantum computing breakthrough in fusion energy IBM, with Oak Ridge and Cleveland Clinic, ran the first-known quantum calculations of a fusion fuel material. This proves IBM's quantum tech can solve real-world problems, boosting its leadership and future contract potential, which lifts the stock.

    This is a new technological milestone that reinforces IBM's quantum leadership and future revenue opportunity.

  • New z17 and LinuxONE 5 systems launched IBM introduced rack-mount and single-frame options for its z17 and LinuxONE 5 mainframes, with more cores and memory. These help customers save data center space and run AI workloads, driving hardware sales and recurring software revenue.

    This is a new product launch that directly expands IBM's hardware and software revenue opportunities.

  • Cybersecurity and multi-cloud market growth IBM rose 16% in a cybersecurity sector rally, and new reports project strong growth in multi-cloud security and AI warehousing. These trends increase demand for IBM's security and AI services, supporting its high-margin software and consulting revenue.

    This shows new market data and sector momentum that directly benefit IBM's security and AI offerings.

  • Valuation debate after strong rally After a 16% weekly gain, analysts debate IBM's valuation: one model says 19.5% overvalued, another says 15.4% undervalued. This disagreement may cause price swings, but the long-term drivers remain intact.

    This provides a balanced view of the risk that the stock may be ahead of itself after a sharp run-up.

Q2 2026
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IBM gains on quantum, software, and partnerships despite AI services selloff

  • Quantum executive orders Trump's quantum executive orders position IBM for federal contracts, boosting investor optimism about future government business.

    This is a new positive development in June 2026 that could drive IBM's revenue.

  • JPMorgan upgrade and strong Q1 results JPMorgan upgraded IBM to Overweight with a $291 target, citing software margins and recurring revenue. Q1 revenue rose 9.5% to $15.9B, earnings up ~20%.

    Analyst upgrade and strong financials are new positive drivers for IBM's stock.

  • Technology breakthroughs and partnerships IBM unveiled the first sub-1nm chip and partnered with OpenAI on cybersecurity, reinforcing its tech leadership and AI credentials.

    These innovations and partnerships are new and enhance IBM's competitive position.

  • IT services selloff on AI disruption fears IBM slipped 5% amid an IT services selloff after Accenture's record 18% drop on AI disruption fears, though consulting is only a third of revenue.

    This negative event pressured IBM's stock price during the period.

June 2026
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IBM gains on quantum, software, and partnerships despite AI services selloff

  • Quantum executive orders Trump's quantum executive orders position IBM for federal contracts, boosting investor optimism about future government business.

    This is a new positive development in June 2026 that could drive IBM's revenue.

  • JPMorgan upgrade and strong Q1 results JPMorgan upgraded IBM to Overweight with a $291 target, citing software margins and recurring revenue. Q1 revenue rose 9.5% to $15.9B, earnings up ~20%.

    Analyst upgrade and strong financials are new positive drivers for IBM's stock.

  • Technology breakthroughs and partnerships IBM unveiled the first sub-1nm chip and partnered with OpenAI on cybersecurity, reinforcing its tech leadership and AI credentials.

    These innovations and partnerships are new and enhance IBM's competitive position.

  • IT services selloff on AI disruption fears IBM slipped 5% amid an IT services selloff after Accenture's record 18% drop on AI disruption fears, though consulting is only a third of revenue.

    This negative event pressured IBM's stock price during the period.

▲4

IBM Rides Quantum Orders, OpenAI Security Deal, and Upgrades

  • OpenAI cybersecurity partnership IBM partnered with OpenAI to bring advanced AI into enterprise security, joining OpenAI's Daybreak Cyber Partner Program. This new service helps customers find software vulnerabilities faster, boosting IBM's high-margin consulting and software revenue. The stock rose about 5% on the news.

    This is a new event that directly lifted IBM shares and expands its AI security business.

  • JPMorgan upgrade and Morgan Stanley target hike JPMorgan upgraded IBM to Overweight and raised its price target to $291, citing stronger software growth from Red Hat and OpenShift. Morgan Stanley also lifted its target to $267 on resilient enterprise server demand. These analyst moves drove a 5% gain.

    New analyst actions this period directly pushed IBM's price higher and reflect improving business fundamentals.

  • Quantum executive orders and federal award Trump's June 22 executive orders make quantum computing a national priority, directing agencies to deliver a quantum computer by 2028 and speeding post-quantum cryptography adoption. IBM, already a quantum leader and primary recipient of a major federal quantum award, is positioned to win contracts and funding.

    New government policy directly benefits IBM's quantum business and reinforces its leadership, supporting future revenue.

  • Strong Q1 results and AI inferencing demand IBM reported Q1 2026 revenue up 9.5% to $15.9 billion, earnings up nearly 20%, and margins expanded 140 basis points. Regulated customers like banks and government agencies are adopting AI inferencing on IBM hardware, showing resilient demand despite broader tech selloffs.

    New earnings data confirms IBM's financial health and growing AI hardware demand, underpinning the stock's value.

▲3▼1

IBM Rides Quantum Orders, Analyst Upgrade, Chip Breakthrough

  • Trump quantum executive orders Trump signed two executive orders making quantum computing a national priority, directing agencies to deliver a quantum computer by 2028 and speeding post-quantum cryptography adoption. IBM, a quantum leader, is positioned to win federal contracts and funding, lifting its shares.

    This is a major new regulatory catalyst directly benefiting IBM's quantum business.

  • JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight JPMorgan upgraded IBM to Overweight and raised its price target to $291, citing software margins and recurring revenue. The upgrade drove a 5% gain, bucking a broad tech selloff, as investors rewarded IBM's shift to higher-margin software.

    Analyst upgrade is a new event that directly boosted IBM's stock price.

  • Sub-1 nanometer chip breakthrough IBM unveiled the world's first sub-1 nanometer chip technology, packing nearly 100 billion transistors on a fingernail-sized chip. The breakthrough reinforces IBM's R&D leadership and future compute potential, sending shares up 2% pre-market.

    New technology milestone that enhances IBM's long-term competitive position.

  • IT services selloff on AI fears IT services stocks plunged on fears AI could shrink demand for consulting. Accenture had a record 18% drop, and IBM slipped 5% in sympathy. However, IBM's consulting is only a third of revenue, and its software base is more resilient.

    This is a real counterweight showing sector-wide pressure on IBM despite its software strength.