International Seaways vs ONEOK: why the prices moved differently

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  Hormuz Tensions Lift Tanker Demand Escalating Middle East conflict and attacks on shipping have pushed tanker rates to record highs, with VLCC earnings near $800K/day. This directly boosts INSW's spot earnings because its ships earn more per day, and longer routes tighten fleet capacity.

  This is the core force driving INSW's earnings and stock price higher.

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  Record Q2 Results and Dividend INSW reported record Q2 net income of $295 million and its largest-ever dividend of $5.05 per share. This shows the company is highly profitable and returning cash to shareholders, which supports the stock price.

  It confirms the financial impact of the rate surge and rewards shareholders.

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  Shipping Stocks at Multi-Year Highs Shipping stocks, led by crude tankers, have surged to decade-plus highs, with INSW hitting an all-time high. This reflects strong investor confidence in the sector, which can continue to lift INSW's share price as money flows in.

  It shows the broader market trend that is pushing INSW's stock up.

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  Future Rate Normalization Risk Analysts project INSW's revenue and earnings could decline by 2029 if trade flows normalize and rates fall. While current profits are record-high, the stock may face pressure if the Hormuz conflict eases and tanker rates return to normal levels.

  It provides a balanced view of the key risk that could reverse INSW's gains.

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  Apollo's $9B equity funds Brazos purchase without new debt Apollo closed a $9 billion minority investment in ONEOK Holdings, structured below ONEOK's debt and treated by rating agencies as credit-enhancing. That gives ONEOK money to buy Brazos Midstream's West Texas gas operations and pay down debt without borrowing more or risking its credit rating.

  This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains how ONEOK is paying for growth while protecting its balance sheet.

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  Dividend raised 4% to $1.07 as cash flows and guidance grow ONEOK lifted its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.07 per share and guides 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $7.9-$8.3 billion, with $475 million of acquisition synergies booked. A rising payout backed by fee-based pipeline volumes signals steady cash and supports the stock's value case.

  Rising dividends and EBITDA guidance are the core fundamental drivers behind the stock's appeal to income investors.

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  Raised 2026 guidance leaves shares looking cheap on earnings After management raised 2026 earnings guidance, ONEOK trades near 16 times earnings versus a fair estimate of about 21 and peers averaging 19.5. If expansion projects and Permian volume growth deliver, the discount can close; bears warn returns could slip and debt from deals limits flexibility.

  Valuation versus peers is the main reason analysts see upside, and it frames the bull-bear debate for readers.

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  Earnings report due with $1.39 per share expected ONEOK was scheduled to report quarterly results on August 3, with analysts expecting $1.39 per share. The report is the next hard check on whether fee-based volumes and acquisition savings are flowing through as promised.

  The upcoming earnings print is the near-term catalyst that will confirm or challenge the growth story.

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  First AI data-center gas supply deal ONEOK signed its first deal to supply natural gas to a 1-gigawatt power plant for AI data centers, a $100 million project with strong returns. It is in late talks on more such deals, opening a new demand source for its pipelines.

  New demand channel that can lift long-term volumes and earnings.

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  $4.425B Brazos Permian acquisition ONEOK agreed to buy Brazos Midstream's Permian assets for $4.425 billion, more than doubling its Midland Basin processing capacity to about 2.3 Bcf/d. The deal is immediately accretive and speeds deleveraging without issuing common stock.

  Major growth deal that expands core Permian footprint and earnings.

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  Apollo-backed $5B debt overhaul Apollo is investing $9 billion in minority equity, with $5 billion used to cut debt. ONEOK launched a $5 billion debt repayment plan and tender offer, aiming to lower leverage to 3.25x and improve free cash flow without diluting common shareholders.

  Strengthens balance sheet and funds acquisition, reducing financial risk.

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  Record Q2 results and raised guidance ONEOK beat Q2 estimates with $1.53 EPS on record NGL volumes and $12.05 billion revenue, then raised 2026 net income guidance to $3.41–$3.79 billion. Shares have gained 9.2% since the report, reflecting stronger cash flow and confidence.

  Confirms operational strength and upward earnings trajectory.

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