Starboard stake and raised guidance lift Knife River, but RBC cuts target
Starboard Value takes stake, pushes for sale or margin fix Activist investor Starboard Value built a significant stake in Knife River and is pushing it to explore a sale or improve margins, arguing the 2023 spinoff failed to close the gap with peers. Shares jumped on the news, as a possible sale or margin overhaul could lift the stock.
This is the biggest new catalyst this period, directly moving KNF shares on takeover and margin-improvement hopes.
Knife River raises 2026 revenue guidance, reaffirms EBITDA Knife River lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to $3.4–$3.6 billion and kept its adjusted EBITDA target of $520–$560 million. Second-quarter EBITDA was flat on reported basis but up 7% excluding asset-sale gains, with revenue up 13%. Some cost and weather headwinds push into 2027.
Higher guidance signals a stronger business outlook, a fundamental positive for the stock.
Knife River responds to Starboard, reaffirms strategy Knife River said it first learned of Starboard's investment on September 22 and will engage with the activist. It reaffirmed its EDGE strategy of pricing, operational improvements and margin expansion, and its vertically integrated platform. No new financial or operational changes were announced.
The company's response shows engagement but no immediate change, a neutral-to-mixed signal for the stock.
RBC downgrades Knife River, slashes price target RBC Capital downgraded Knife River to Sector Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $58 from $103, citing concerns about the company's outlook. The downgrade pressures the stock by lowering analyst expectations and signaling caution on near-term performance.
A sharp analyst downgrade and target cut is a direct negative for KNF's price.