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Mondelez International vs Crude Palm Oil: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)

Q3 2026
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Mondelez beats Q2, raises guidance, but cost and regulatory pressures mount

  • Q2 beat and raised guidance Mondelez beat Q2 estimates and raised 2026 organic growth guidance to at least 2%, helped by emerging-market gains, new products, and sustainability efforts like recycled packaging.

    This is the main positive force that supported the stock during the quarter.

  • Cocoa and sugar cost squeeze Cocoa and sugar costs squeezed operating income and EPS, and a potential record El Niño threatens West African cocoa supplies, adding to margin pressure.

    This is a key negative force that weighed on profitability and investor sentiment.

  • Fed rate-hike signals Fed rate-hike signals raise refinancing costs and reduce dividend appeal, making the stock less attractive to income-focused investors.

    This is a new monetary headwind that affected the stock's valuation and appeal.

  • Regulatory and recall pressures UK junk-food regulations, a Poland shrinkflation probe, and a Cadbury Oreo recall add regulatory pressure, creating uncertainty and potential costs.

    These are new regulatory and operational risks that emerged during the quarter.

August 2026
▼2▲1

Mondelez Grinds Out Growth as Cocoa and Sugar Costs Bite

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Mondelez beat Q2 estimates for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue up 4.1% and emerging markets growing 4.4%. Management then raised 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%. Steady sales and higher guidance support the stock by showing the snack business is still expanding.

    This is the core positive fundamental news of the period and directly supports the share price.

  • Cocoa and sugar costs squeeze margins Cocoa cost timing already cut year-to-date adjusted operating income 12.8% and EPS 8.8%, with productivity only partly offsetting it. Sugar prices also jumped 13% in six weeks, adding another input cost. Higher costs pressure profits and weigh on the stock.

    Rising raw material costs are the main force holding Mondelez's profits and share price back.

  • Super El Niño threatens West African cocoa crop Jefferies warned a possible record-strength El Niño could bring hotter, drier weather to West Africa before the November-January harvest. About 60% of Mondelez's cocoa comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. A poor crop would keep cocoa prices high and hurt future margins.

    This is a concrete new supply risk that could extend the cocoa cost problem into 2027.

  • New products and farm investment offset regulatory probes Mondelez launched Toblerone Diamond Truffles with Biscoff through Costco worldwide and invested in a Canadian farm fund to secure crops. But Poland's watchdog is probing possible shrinkflation, and a Cadbury Oreo bar recall added regulatory risk. Growth efforts help; investigations and recalls hurt.

    It captures both the new growth initiatives and the fresh regulatory and recall risks affecting the stock.

Latest
▼2▲1

Mondelez Grinds Out Growth as Cocoa and Sugar Costs Bite

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Mondelez beat Q2 estimates for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue up 4.1% and emerging markets growing 4.4%. Management then raised 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%. Steady sales and higher guidance support the stock by showing the snack business is still expanding.

    This is the core positive fundamental news of the period and directly supports the share price.

  • Cocoa and sugar costs squeeze margins Cocoa cost timing already cut year-to-date adjusted operating income 12.8% and EPS 8.8%, with productivity only partly offsetting it. Sugar prices also jumped 13% in six weeks, adding another input cost. Higher costs pressure profits and weigh on the stock.

    Rising raw material costs are the main force holding Mondelez's profits and share price back.

  • Super El Niño threatens West African cocoa crop Jefferies warned a possible record-strength El Niño could bring hotter, drier weather to West Africa before the November-January harvest. About 60% of Mondelez's cocoa comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. A poor crop would keep cocoa prices high and hurt future margins.

    This is a concrete new supply risk that could extend the cocoa cost problem into 2027.

  • New products and farm investment offset regulatory probes Mondelez launched Toblerone Diamond Truffles with Biscoff through Costco worldwide and invested in a Canadian farm fund to secure crops. But Poland's watchdog is probing possible shrinkflation, and a Cadbury Oreo bar recall added regulatory risk. Growth efforts help; investigations and recalls hurt.

    It captures both the new growth initiatives and the fresh regulatory and recall risks affecting the stock.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Mondelez Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook Offset by Fed Rate Fears

  • Q2 Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook Mondelez reported Q2 revenue of $9.36 billion and adjusted EPS that beat estimates, driven by solid demand for biscuits and chocolate plus price increases. Management raised full-year organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%, up from flat to up 2%. This directly boosts investor confidence and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the most recent and most impactful positive catalyst for MDLZ, showing stronger-than-expected financial performance and improved future guidance.

  • Fed Signals Potential Rate Hike, Pressuring Dividend Stocks The Federal Reserve held rates steady but hinted at a possible hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up. Higher rate expectations make Mondelez's acquisition-related debt more expensive to refinance and reduce the appeal of its dividend compared to bonds. This weighed on MDLZ shares, which fell 2.1% on the day.

    This monetary policy shift directly affects MDLZ's cost of capital and relative attractiveness to income investors, explaining downward price pressure.

  • UK Junk Food Regulations Threaten Investment Mondelez's CEO warned that tightening UK junk food rules create uncertainty and could deter future factory investment in Britain, its second-biggest market. While no immediate financial impact, this regulatory risk could raise costs and limit growth opportunities in a key region, weighing on long-term sentiment.

    This highlights a real regulatory headwind that could affect Mondelez's operations and investment decisions in a major market.

  • Sustainable Packaging Partnership for Marabou Mondelez partnered with LyondellBasell and others to launch flexible packaging with 75% recycled content for Marabou chocolate bars. This supports sustainability goals, aligns with EU recycled-content rules, and may enhance brand appeal and demand, though the near-term financial impact is modest.

    This innovation supports Mondelez's environmental credentials and regulatory compliance, potentially aiding long-term demand and brand strength.

▲2▼2

Mondelez Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook Offset by Fed Rate Fears

  • Q2 Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook Mondelez reported Q2 revenue of $9.36 billion and adjusted EPS that beat estimates, driven by solid demand for biscuits and chocolate plus price increases. Management raised full-year organic revenue growth guidance to at least 2%, up from flat to up 2%. This directly boosts investor confidence and supports a higher stock price.

    This is the most recent and most impactful positive catalyst for MDLZ, showing stronger-than-expected financial performance and improved future guidance.

  • Fed Signals Potential Rate Hike, Pressuring Dividend Stocks The Federal Reserve held rates steady but hinted at a possible hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up. Higher rate expectations make Mondelez's acquisition-related debt more expensive to refinance and reduce the appeal of its dividend compared to bonds. This weighed on MDLZ shares, which fell 2.1% on the day.

    This monetary policy shift directly affects MDLZ's cost of capital and relative attractiveness to income investors, explaining downward price pressure.

  • UK Junk Food Regulations Threaten Investment Mondelez's CEO warned that tightening UK junk food rules create uncertainty and could deter future factory investment in Britain, its second-biggest market. While no immediate financial impact, this regulatory risk could raise costs and limit growth opportunities in a key region, weighing on long-term sentiment.

    This highlights a real regulatory headwind that could affect Mondelez's operations and investment decisions in a major market.

  • Sustainable Packaging Partnership for Marabou Mondelez partnered with LyondellBasell and others to launch flexible packaging with 75% recycled content for Marabou chocolate bars. This supports sustainability goals, aligns with EU recycled-content rules, and may enhance brand appeal and demand, though the near-term financial impact is modest.

    This innovation supports Mondelez's environmental credentials and regulatory compliance, potentially aiding long-term demand and brand strength.

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.