← Monday.Com overview

Monday.Com vs Fair Isaac: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Monday.Com Ltd (MNDY)

Q3 2026
▲2▼1

AI monetization accelerates but restructuring and soft guidance weigh

  • AI monetization gains traction AI now drives 17% of new subscription revenue, up from prior periods, showing the company's AI features are selling well and could open a new growth path.

    This is a key new positive development that could drive future growth and investor optimism.

  • Strong Q2 financials and attractive valuation Q2 revenue grew 22% to $364.6M with 17% operating margin and $52.3M free cash flow. Analysts rate it Strong Buy, and the stock trades at ~15x forward earnings vs. ~20x for peers.

    These results and valuation metrics provide fundamental support and could attract value-focused investors.

  • Restructuring and soft guidance A 20% workforce cut with $45–55M restructuring charges and Q3 revenue guidance below consensus, plus a billings miss, raise concerns about near-term execution and demand.

    These factors directly weigh on profitability and investor confidence, contributing to the stock's decline.

  • AI disruption fears and relief rally The stock fell over 40% in 2026 on fears AI could disrupt its business model, but a sector-wide AI relief rally and earnings strength have recently drawn buyers, creating volatility.

    This captures the ongoing tension between disruption fears and recent positive momentum, explaining the stock's mixed performance.

August 2026
▲2▼1

AI fears still weigh, but earnings strength and cheap valuation draw buyers

  • AI disruption fear keeps the stock down The stock is down over 40% in 2026 even though revenue grew 24% and guidance was raised. Investors fear AI could hurt monday.com's business model, and that fear — not weak results — is the main force pushing the price down.

    This is the core reason the stock is depressed and frames the whole period.

  • Sector-wide AI relief rally lifts software stocks In late August, enterprise software stocks jumped after earnings showed AI is boosting growth rather than killing old platforms. monday.com rose 6.6% with peers like Salesforce and MongoDB, easing the disruption fear that had been pressuring the shares.

    Shows the market's AI fear can reverse, directly lifting MNDY's price.

  • Q2 beat on revenue, but weak guidance and billings miss monday.com beat second-quarter revenue expectations ($364.6 million, up 21.9%) and added large enterprise customers, but gave the weakest guidance update among peers and missed billings estimates. The beat supports the stock; the soft outlook and billings cap gains.

    The latest hard results are the key fundamental driver, cutting both ways.

  • Rising profit estimates and cheap valuation attract buyers Analysts keep raising monday.com's earnings estimates ahead of its report, with the stock rated Strong Buy and trading at a forward P/E of about 15 versus an industry average near 20. That discount, plus expected profit growth over 20%, draws investors.

    Valuation and estimate revisions are the main supports keeping the stock from falling further.

Latest
▲2▼1

AI fears still weigh, but earnings strength and cheap valuation draw buyers

  • AI disruption fear keeps the stock down The stock is down over 40% in 2026 even though revenue grew 24% and guidance was raised. Investors fear AI could hurt monday.com's business model, and that fear — not weak results — is the main force pushing the price down.

    This is the core reason the stock is depressed and frames the whole period.

  • Sector-wide AI relief rally lifts software stocks In late August, enterprise software stocks jumped after earnings showed AI is boosting growth rather than killing old platforms. monday.com rose 6.6% with peers like Salesforce and MongoDB, easing the disruption fear that had been pressuring the shares.

    Shows the market's AI fear can reverse, directly lifting MNDY's price.

  • Q2 beat on revenue, but weak guidance and billings miss monday.com beat second-quarter revenue expectations ($364.6 million, up 21.9%) and added large enterprise customers, but gave the weakest guidance update among peers and missed billings estimates. The beat supports the stock; the soft outlook and billings cap gains.

    The latest hard results are the key fundamental driver, cutting both ways.

  • Rising profit estimates and cheap valuation attract buyers Analysts keep raising monday.com's earnings estimates ahead of its report, with the stock rated Strong Buy and trading at a forward P/E of about 15 versus an industry average near 20. That discount, plus expected profit growth over 20%, draws investors.

    Valuation and estimate revisions are the main supports keeping the stock from falling further.

July 2026
▲2▼2

AI monetization grows, but layoffs and soft Q3 guidance cloud outlook

  • AI monetization gains traction AI now drives 17% of net new annual recurring revenue, up from 10% last quarter, as customers adopt new AI-powered pricing. This shows AI is becoming a real revenue source, which could lift MNDY's stock if the trend continues.

    This is new evidence of AI monetization progress, a key growth driver for the stock.

  • 20% workforce cut and $45-55M restructuring charge MNDY is cutting 20% of jobs (over 600 roles) to become AI-first, incurring $45-55M in charges. While it may save $100M annually, the move signals disruption and could hurt morale and execution, pressuring the stock.

    This is a major new event that affects costs, execution, and investor sentiment.

  • Q3 revenue guidance misses estimates Q3 revenue outlook of $368-370M fell short of the $372.85M consensus, despite a Q2 beat. The soft guide suggests slowing growth and near-term pressure, which drove shares down 9% premarket.

    This is the latest quarterly guidance and directly explains the recent stock drop.

  • Q2 revenue up 22% with margin expansion Q2 revenue rose 22% to $364.6M, beating estimates, with operating margin at 17% and free cash flow of $52.3M. Strong execution shows the core business remains healthy, supporting the stock despite guidance concerns.

    This is the latest quarterly result, providing a balanced view of financial health.

▲2▼2

AI monetization grows, but layoffs and soft Q3 guidance cloud outlook

  • AI monetization gains traction AI now drives 17% of net new annual recurring revenue, up from 10% last quarter, as customers adopt new AI-powered pricing. This shows AI is becoming a real revenue source, which could lift MNDY's stock if the trend continues.

    This is new evidence of AI monetization progress, a key growth driver for the stock.

  • 20% workforce cut and $45-55M restructuring charge MNDY is cutting 20% of jobs (over 600 roles) to become AI-first, incurring $45-55M in charges. While it may save $100M annually, the move signals disruption and could hurt morale and execution, pressuring the stock.

    This is a major new event that affects costs, execution, and investor sentiment.

  • Q3 revenue guidance misses estimates Q3 revenue outlook of $368-370M fell short of the $372.85M consensus, despite a Q2 beat. The soft guide suggests slowing growth and near-term pressure, which drove shares down 9% premarket.

    This is the latest quarterly guidance and directly explains the recent stock drop.

  • Q2 revenue up 22% with margin expansion Q2 revenue rose 22% to $364.6M, beating estimates, with operating margin at 17% and free cash flow of $52.3M. Strong execution shows the core business remains healthy, supporting the stock despite guidance concerns.

    This is the latest quarterly result, providing a balanced view of financial health.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

Q3 2026
▼2

FICO's mortgage monopoly ends as VantageScore wins approval

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage-scoring monopoly The FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0, breaking FICO's long-held monopoly on mortgage credit scores. Rocket Mortgage will default to VantageScore in Q4, a concrete loss of market share.

    This is the most significant new competitive threat, directly ending FICO's monopoly and causing tangible share loss.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement could cut FICO demand A proposed bi-merge requirement would let lenders use just two credit reports instead of three, potentially reducing demand for FICO scores. This regulatory change adds further pressure on FICO's core business.

    This new regulatory risk could structurally reduce FICO's revenue per mortgage.

  • Record revenue but miss and delayed licensing program Q3 revenue hit a record $674M, up 26%, with profit up 41% and raised guidance. However, revenue missed estimates and the Direct Licensing Program was delayed, pressuring shares.

    This captures the mixed financial performance: strong growth but missed expectations and a delayed key initiative.

  • FICO responds with free 10T and AI restructuring FICO launched its Direct License Program and offered free FICO Score 10T to FHA lenders to defend its turf. It also cut 15% of staff in an AI restructuring, signaling ongoing pressure.

    These are new strategic responses to competitive threats, showing both defense and cost-cutting.

September 2026
▼3

FICO's mortgage dominance erodes as rivals gain ground

  • FHFA ends FICO monopoly, approves VantageScore 4.0 The FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie and Freddie loans, ending FICO's monopoly. A unified pricing grid lets lenders bypass FICO entirely, threatening its pricing power and market share.

    This is a major regulatory change that directly undermines FICO's core mortgage business.

  • Rocket Mortgage to default to VantageScore in Q4 Rocket Mortgage, the largest U.S. lender, will default to VantageScore in Q4. This concrete share loss shows FICO's biggest customer is moving away, reducing future revenue.

    It provides tangible evidence of market share loss to a competitor.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement could cut FICO demand A potential bi-merge requirement—using only two credit bureaus—could further reduce demand for FICO-based tri-merge reports. This regulatory shift would lower FICO's revenue per mortgage.

    It highlights another regulatory threat that could reduce FICO's pricing and volume.

  • FICO launches Direct License Program and offers free 10T to FHA lenders FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and offered its 10T score free to FHA lenders starting 2027 to boost adoption. However, it also cut 15% of its workforce in an AI-focused restructuring, signaling ongoing pressure.

    These are new strategic moves by FICO to counter threats, but the workforce cut shows challenges remain.

Latest
▼2

FICO's mortgage monopoly erodes as VantageScore gains and FICO cuts jobs

  • Rocket Mortgage becomes first major lender to default to VantageScore Rocket Mortgage, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, will default to VantageScore 4.0 for eligible loans starting in Q4. This is a concrete loss of FICO's dominant position, as a top lender shifts volume away, pressuring FICO's revenue and pricing.

    It shows real competitive adoption, not just regulatory threat, making the risk tangible for FICO's business.

  • FHFA may require only two credit bureaus, reducing FICO score demand Bloomberg reported the FHFA plans to require lenders to use only two of the three major credit bureaus for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could cut demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could structurally reduce the number of FICO scores pulled per mortgage.

  • FICO offers free 10T score to FHA lenders and cuts 15% of workforce FICO will offer its newest 10T score free to FHA lenders from 2027, aiming to boost adoption and show its model is more predictive. Separately, FICO announced a 15% workforce cut in an AI-focused restructuring. The free offer may help retain share, but the job cuts signal pressure.

    These are FICO's own strategic responses to the competitive threat, showing both defense and cost-cutting.

▼3▲1

FHFA Opens Mortgage Scoring to VantageScore, Threatening FICO's Monopoly

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage scoring exclusivity The Federal Housing Finance Agency approved VantageScore 4.0 for all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, ending FICO's long-held monopoly in mortgage credit scoring. This introduces direct competition, threatening FICO's market share and pricing power. The stock fell sharply on the news.

    This is the core new event that directly threatens FICO's mortgage scoring business and triggered the stock decline.

  • Unified pricing grid lets VantageScore bypass FICO FHFA will consolidate Fannie and Freddie pricing into one grid that includes VantageScore, allowing lenders to use VantageScore for loan-level pricing and approval without FICO. This removes FICO's fee leverage and could accelerate share loss.

    This structural change intensifies competition and directly undermines FICO's ability to charge premium fees.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement adds pressure FHFA may require lenders to use only two credit bureaus instead of three for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could reduce demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that compounds the competitive pressure on FICO's mortgage scoring business.

  • FICO launches direct license program; regulator not targeting FICO FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and FHFA Director Pulte signaled he is not purposefully targeting the company. This provided a slight reprieve, but the overall competitive and regulatory threats remain dominant.

    This is a new positive development that offers some counterbalance to the negative news, though it does not reverse the competitive threat.

July 2026
▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.

▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.