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Nucor vs Cleveland-Cliffs: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Nucor Corp (NUE)

Q3 2026
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Nucor's Q3 Profit Miss and Oversupply Fears Offset Tariff Gains

  • Q2 Profit Nearly Doubled on Record Shipments Nucor's Q2 profit nearly doubled to $1.156 billion, with revenue up 23% on record shipments and higher prices. This showed the core business was strong heading into Q3.

    It highlights the strong underlying performance that supported the stock early in the period.

  • Tariffs Curbed Imports and Aided Domestic Steelmakers Section 232 enforcement and a new 25% tariff on Brazilian steel reduced foreign competition, helping domestic producers like Nucor keep prices and volumes higher.

    Tariff policy was a key external force that benefited Nucor during the quarter.

  • Q3 Guidance Missed Estimates, Shares Fell Over 3% Nucor guided Q3 earnings to $5.55–$5.65 per share, below analyst estimates of $6.00–$6.20. The miss sent shares down over 3% as investors worried about slowing momentum.

    This was the most direct negative catalyst for the stock during the period.

  • Oversupply Fears and Berkshire Stake Cut Weighed on Sentiment Berkshire Hathaway halved its stake, and a planned $15 billion Iowa mill raised concerns about future oversupply. Canada's retaliatory tariffs also hurt U.S. steel exports, adding to the negative mood.

    These factors increased uncertainty and pressured the stock despite tariff benefits.

August 2026
▼3▲1

Nucor's strong quarter offset by demand and oversupply worries

  • Q2 earnings beat and dividend affirmed Nucor's Q2 profit and revenue beat expectations, and the dividend was affirmed. Analysts see the stock about 4% undervalued and have raised earnings estimates ahead of the October 26 report.

    This shows the core business is performing well and supports the stock.

  • Berkshire Hathaway halves stake Berkshire Hathaway cut its Nucor stake in half, a negative signal that may worry other investors and weigh on the shares.

    This is a notable negative event that pressured the stock during the period.

  • US-Canada tariff talks collapse, 50% tariffs return A tentative US-Canada deal to halve steel tariffs briefly pressured shares, but talks collapsed and 50% tariffs returned. The uncertainty added to market jitters.

    This trade policy uncertainty affected Nucor's stock during the period.

  • Planned $15 billion Iowa mill raises oversupply fears A planned $15 billion Iowa mill (Mesabi Metallics, production by 2030) raised concerns about a future steel glut, pressuring steel stocks including Nucor.

    This new supply threat weighed on the stock and the sector.

Latest
▲3▼1

Nucor's profit rebound and tariff edge offset by new steel supply

  • Profit rebound and dividend support Nucor beat second-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, affirmed its dividend, and analysts see the stock about 4% undervalued. The company reinvested $860 million in growth projects. This supports the stock by showing the business is generating strong profits and returning cash to shareholders.

    It shows the fundamental profit recovery that is pushing NUE up.

  • Tariffs reduce import competition Diamond Hill Capital said Nucor benefited from reduced import competition and supportive trade policy, which strengthened pricing power for domestic steel producers. Solid shipment volumes also helped earnings. This pushes NUE up because less foreign competition lets Nucor charge more for its steel.

    It explains a key external force behind Nucor's pricing power and stock gains.

  • New $15 billion steel mill adds supply A planned $15 billion steel mill in Iowa by Mesabi Metallics could start production by 2030. Steel stocks, including Nucor, fell on worries that this new domestic capacity will worsen the supply-demand balance. More steel supply can pressure prices and hurt Nucor's profits.

    It is a new competitive threat that directly weighs on Nucor's future pricing and stock.

  • Analysts raise estimates ahead of earnings Analysts lifted Nucor's earnings estimates ahead of its October 26 report, with consensus EPS up 5.22% over the past month. The stock rose 1.7% on the day. Rising estimates signal growing confidence in Nucor's profit outlook, which supports the share price.

    It shows forward-looking optimism that is currently driving the stock higher.

September 2026
▼2

Nucor's Q3 Profit Miss Overshadows Tariff Gains

  • Q3 guidance falls short of Wall Street Nucor said Q3 profit will be $5.55-$5.65 a share, below the roughly $6.00-$6.20 analysts expected. Higher product costs and weaker raw materials results offset firm steel prices. The stock fell over 3% after hours, as investors worry near-term earnings are less strong than hoped.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly explains why NUE moved down.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. steel exports Canada's counter-tariffs took effect September 8, putting 15%-50% duties on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, including steel. That makes Nucor's exports to Canada more expensive and can reduce sales there, a direct drag on results.

    A new trade action that directly affects Nucor's export demand and pricing.

  • Long-term growth plans carry execution risk Nucor's own plan targets $40.5 billion revenue and $4.5 billion earnings by 2029, but that requires big capacity investments to pay off. The Q3 miss sharpens focus on whether demand and pricing can support those projects, a risk that could cap the stock.

    Adds the real counterweight: future growth depends on execution and demand holding up.

▼2

Nucor's Q3 Profit Miss Overshadows Tariff Gains

  • Q3 guidance falls short of Wall Street Nucor said Q3 profit will be $5.55-$5.65 a share, below the roughly $6.00-$6.20 analysts expected. Higher product costs and weaker raw materials results offset firm steel prices. The stock fell over 3% after hours, as investors worry near-term earnings are less strong than hoped.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly explains why NUE moved down.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. steel exports Canada's counter-tariffs took effect September 8, putting 15%-50% duties on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, including steel. That makes Nucor's exports to Canada more expensive and can reduce sales there, a direct drag on results.

    A new trade action that directly affects Nucor's export demand and pricing.

  • Long-term growth plans carry execution risk Nucor's own plan targets $40.5 billion revenue and $4.5 billion earnings by 2029, but that requires big capacity investments to pay off. The Q3 miss sharpens focus on whether demand and pricing can support those projects, a risk that could cap the stock.

    Adds the real counterweight: future growth depends on execution and demand holding up.

▼3▲1

Tariff Rollercoaster and Berkshire Cut Pressure Nucor

  • Berkshire halves Nucor stake Berkshire Hathaway roughly halved its Nucor stake in Q2, a negative signal from a famous value investor. It may pressure the stock as some investors follow Berkshire's moves, though it doesn't change Nucor's actual business.

    This is a new, high-impact capital event that can weigh on NUE's price.

  • US-Canada tariff cut plan hits steel stocks A tentative US-Canada deal would halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, increasing import competition. Nucor and peers fell 2.6% to 7.5% on the news, as lower tariffs mean foreign steel can undercut domestic prices.

    This new tariff development directly threatens Nucor's pricing power and stock.

  • US-Canada talks collapse, 50% tariffs back on Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed, paving the way for 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. US steel stocks rose, with analysts saying Nucor stands to benefit most, as higher tariffs keep cheaper Canadian steel out.

    This new reversal restores tariff protection, a positive for Nucor's pricing and sales.

  • Nucor shares fall 6.8% since earnings beat Despite a Q2 earnings beat, Nucor shares have dropped 6.8%, underperforming the S&P 500. The market may be looking past strong results to worries about future tariffs and demand, showing that good news alone isn't lifting the stock.

    This new article highlights the stock's recent weakness and investor concerns.

July 2026
▲4

Nucor's Profit Nearly Doubles as Tariffs Curb Steel Imports

  • Q2 profit nearly doubles, revenue up 23% Nucor earned $1.156 billion ($5.04/share) in Q2, up from $603 million a year ago, with revenue up 23% to $10.4 billion. Record steel shipments of 7.1 million tons and higher selling prices show the core business is strong, supporting the stock.

    The earnings beat is the main new fundamental driver of NUE's price this period.

  • CEO credits Trump tariffs for strong quarter CEO Topalian said aggressive enforcement of Section 232 tariffs is cutting unfairly traded imports, helping Nucor. Finished steel import share fell from 23% to 16%, leaving more room for domestic producers. This policy support is a key reason profits jumped.

    Tariff enforcement is the central force behind Nucor's profit surge and stock rally.

  • New 25% tariff on Brazilian steel imports The U.S. imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian goods, including steel. This makes foreign steel costlier, so buyers may shift to Nucor's domestic product. It adds to existing tariffs that already protect U.S. steelmakers.

    A fresh tariff action directly reduces import competition for Nucor.

  • JFE partnership targets high-grade steel demand JFE Holdings said its U.S. joint ventures with Nucor focus on high-grade steel like electrical and automotive sheets. JFE sees motorization and electrification as growth drivers. This signals steady demand for Nucor's more profitable specialty products.

    It shows a partner expects strong demand in Nucor's high-value product lines.

▲4

Nucor's Profit Nearly Doubles as Tariffs Curb Steel Imports

  • Q2 profit nearly doubles, revenue up 23% Nucor earned $1.156 billion ($5.04/share) in Q2, up from $603 million a year ago, with revenue up 23% to $10.4 billion. Record steel shipments of 7.1 million tons and higher selling prices show the core business is strong, supporting the stock.

    The earnings beat is the main new fundamental driver of NUE's price this period.

  • CEO credits Trump tariffs for strong quarter CEO Topalian said aggressive enforcement of Section 232 tariffs is cutting unfairly traded imports, helping Nucor. Finished steel import share fell from 23% to 16%, leaving more room for domestic producers. This policy support is a key reason profits jumped.

    Tariff enforcement is the central force behind Nucor's profit surge and stock rally.

  • New 25% tariff on Brazilian steel imports The U.S. imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian goods, including steel. This makes foreign steel costlier, so buyers may shift to Nucor's domestic product. It adds to existing tariffs that already protect U.S. steelmakers.

    A fresh tariff action directly reduces import competition for Nucor.

  • JFE partnership targets high-grade steel demand JFE Holdings said its U.S. joint ventures with Nucor focus on high-grade steel like electrical and automotive sheets. JFE sees motorization and electrification as growth drivers. This signals steady demand for Nucor's more profitable specialty products.

    It shows a partner expects strong demand in Nucor's high-value product lines.

Q2 2026
▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

June 2026
▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Cliffs' profit surge and defense win offset by tariff and downgrade risks

  • Profit triples and guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, lifting shares 16% during the quarter. This shows the company's core business is performing much better than expected.

    This is the main positive force that drove the stock higher in Q3.

  • Defense contract and DOE-funded upgrade Cliffs won a five-year, up-to-$400M defense contract for electrical steel and advanced a $1B Middletown upgrade, half-funded by the DOE. This extends furnace life and cuts costs, supporting future earnings.

    These new contracts and investments are fresh positive developments that improve the company's outlook.

  • Tariff cuts and Canadian retaliation A tentative US-Canada framework would halve tariffs to 25%, pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliation already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works, cutting 350 jobs. These trade tensions weigh on the sector.

    This is a key risk that could hurt Cliffs' pricing power and overall industry health.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrade and balance-sheet stress Morgan Stanley downgraded CLF to Equal-weight, warning the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. The stock remains down for 2026 amid balance-sheet stress, suggesting limited upside from here.

    This analyst downgrade and financial concern act as a counterweight to the positive news.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Cliffs Q2 Profit Triples, Q3 Guidance Doubles; Tariff Risks Linger

  • Q2 profit triples and Q3 guidance doubles Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q2 2026 profit tripled and Q3 guidance doubled on strong domestic demand, sending shares up 16%. This shows the company is earning much more money than expected.

    This is the main new positive event that drove the stock higher this period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade extends furnace life A $1 billion upgrade at the Middletown plant, half-funded by a Department of Energy grant, will extend the blast furnace's life and lower costs. This long-term investment supports future profitability.

    It is a new capital project that improves efficiency and is partly funded by a grant.

  • Analysts raise earnings estimates by 28% Analysts increased their earnings estimates for Cliffs by 28%, citing cost reductions and a cheap valuation. Higher estimates often attract more investors and can lift the stock price.

    This reflects improving market expectations, a key driver of stock performance.

  • US-Canada tariff framework cuts steel tariffs to 25% A tentative US-Canada framework would halve steel tariffs to 25%, potentially pressuring US steel prices. Canada's retaliatory tariffs already forced Stelco to idle Hamilton Works lines, cutting 350 jobs and dropping shares 8%.

    This is a new negative development that creates uncertainty and drags on the stock.

Latest
▲3▼1

Cliffs' cost cuts and US tariff protection offset Canada trade damage

  • Cost cuts and cheap valuation support the stock Cliffs is cutting unit costs through plant optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and lower fixed costs, which should boost free cash flow and reduce debt. The stock trades well below a widely followed fair value estimate, so investors see it as beaten down and cheap.

    Explains the main company-specific force lifting CLF: self-help cost cuts and a discounted valuation.

  • Analysts raise profit forecasts as results improve Analysts lifted their earnings estimates for Cliffs by about 28% in a month, expecting a big jump in quarterly profit and revenue. That improving outlook, plus higher steel prices from US import tariffs, is a key reason the stock can move up even while the company is still losing money.

    Shows the improving earnings trend and tariff-driven pricing that underpin the positive case for CLF.

  • Canada trade war hits Cliffs' Canadian operations Canada's retaliatory tariffs and the US 50% steel tariff have forced Cliffs' Canadian subsidiary Stelco to idle its Hamilton Works cold-rolled and coated lines, cutting about 350 jobs. The stock fell nearly 8% on the news, showing the trade fight is a real drag on Cliffs.

    Captures the main negative force this period: direct tariff damage to Cliffs' Canadian business and the market reaction.

  • Government-backed plant upgrade cuts long-term risk Cliffs confirmed a $1 billion modernization of its Middletown, Ohio steel plant, half-funded by a $500 million US Department of Energy award. The work keeps production running and addresses the risk of an aging, carbon-heavy asset base that could otherwise require heavy catch-up spending.

    A new company-specific investment that reduces long-term asset and cost risk, supporting the stock.

July 2026
▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

  • Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.

    This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.

  • US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.

    This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.

    This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.

  • Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.

    It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.