← On overview

On vs Birkenstock: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

On Holding Ltd (ONON)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

On Holding's Q3: Profit Up, Guidance Cut, Stock Falls 20%

  • Strong Q2 profit and margin On Holding reported Q2 profit of CHF 105 million, with gross margin rising to 65.4% and direct-to-consumer sales hitting a record 45.7% of total sales. Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1%, and apparel and tennis categories grew strongly.

    This shows the company's underlying profitability and growth in key areas, which is positive for the stock.

  • Strategic moves and buyback On signed football star Kylian Mbappé, entered the football market, set midterm targets including CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, and authorized a $1 billion share buyback. These moves aim to boost brand and shareholder value.

    These strategic initiatives could drive future growth and support the stock price.

  • Guidance cut and sales miss Despite profit growth, Q2 sales missed estimates, full-year guidance was cut, and U.S. wholesale slowed sharply. The stock fell over 20% as a result, reflecting concerns about future performance.

    This directly explains the stock's decline and negative sentiment during the period.

  • Analyst caution and external risks Jefferies reiterated an Underperform rating, citing slowing Americas growth and limited football potential. Tariffs, promotional athletic demand, and rising short interest add further risks to the stock.

    These factors contribute to negative outlook and pressure on the stock price.

August 2026
▲2▼1

On's growth story meets a guidance cut and a skeptical analyst

  • Guidance cut and Q2 miss, insiders buy the dip On cut its full-year sales guidance and missed second-quarter revenue estimates, with growth slowing and wholesale up only 12.7% as it held back shipments to avoid discounting. The stock fell over 20% on the news. Insiders, including the CEO, bought shares, but that does not erase the weaker outlook.

    This is the main negative force this period, explaining why the stock is down sharply despite strong margins.

  • Mbappé signing opens football, a new market On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike in a cash-and-equity deal, its first major star, with products planned for 2027. This gives On global credibility in football, a huge new category, and is a competitive win against Nike.

    This is the biggest new growth catalyst this period, pushing the stock up by opening a new market.

  • $1 billion buyback and reiterated guidance On authorized a $1 billion share buyback through 2029, appointed a new lead independent director, and reiterated its 2026 earnings guidance. Buybacks shrink the number of shares, which can lift the stock price, and the guidance repeat signals confidence.

    This is a new capital action that supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.

  • Affluent customers help, but Jefferies stays bearish Bernstein rates On Outperform, noting its exposure to higher-income shoppers who spend more on apparel and footwear. But Jefferies reiterates Underperform with a $20 target, citing a limited market for football and slowing Americas growth. Hedge funds added shares, while short interest also rose.

    This shows the real counterweight: a supportive analyst view versus a skeptical one, and mixed positioning.

Latest
▲2▼1

On's growth story meets a guidance cut and a skeptical analyst

  • Guidance cut and Q2 miss, insiders buy the dip On cut its full-year sales guidance and missed second-quarter revenue estimates, with growth slowing and wholesale up only 12.7% as it held back shipments to avoid discounting. The stock fell over 20% on the news. Insiders, including the CEO, bought shares, but that does not erase the weaker outlook.

    This is the main negative force this period, explaining why the stock is down sharply despite strong margins.

  • Mbappé signing opens football, a new market On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike in a cash-and-equity deal, its first major star, with products planned for 2027. This gives On global credibility in football, a huge new category, and is a competitive win against Nike.

    This is the biggest new growth catalyst this period, pushing the stock up by opening a new market.

  • $1 billion buyback and reiterated guidance On authorized a $1 billion share buyback through 2029, appointed a new lead independent director, and reiterated its 2026 earnings guidance. Buybacks shrink the number of shares, which can lift the stock price, and the guidance repeat signals confidence.

    This is a new capital action that supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.

  • Affluent customers help, but Jefferies stays bearish Bernstein rates On Outperform, noting its exposure to higher-income shoppers who spend more on apparel and footwear. But Jefferies reiterates Underperform with a $20 target, citing a limited market for football and slowing Americas growth. Hedge funds added shares, while short interest also rose.

    This shows the real counterweight: a supportive analyst view versus a skeptical one, and mixed positioning.

September 2026
▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

July 2026
▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)

Q3 2026
▲3

Birkenstock beats on Q3 revenue, raises outlook; Burry builds stake

  • Q3 revenue beat and raised full-year guidance Birkenstock's fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 13.3% to €719.5 million, beating expectations, with double-digit growth in every region. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% and adjusted EBITDA to at least €710 million. This tells investors demand for the brand is still strong, pushing the stock up.

    The revenue beat and guidance raise are the core new fundamental event that moved the stock this period.

  • Michael Burry raises stake to 5.2% Investor Michael Burry increased his Birkenstock stake to 5.2%, buying when shares fell below $35. A well-known investor taking a large position can boost confidence and draw attention to the stock, supporting the price even though the company's net profit fell 15%.

    Burry's stake increase is a new, high-profile vote of confidence that can influence other investors.

  • Share buyback and debt refinancing Birkenstock completed a €230 million accelerated share buyback, cutting its share count by nearly 6 million shares, and refinanced its senior notes at a 75 basis point lower interest rate. Fewer shares can lift earnings per share, and lower interest costs free up cash, both helping the stock.

    These capital actions directly affect per-share value and cash flow, key drivers of the stock price.

  • Profit decline and margin pressure offset strong sales Despite the revenue beat, net profit fell 15% to €110 million and gross margin slipped to 59.1% from 60.5%. This shows the company is growing sales but keeping less profit per sale, a real counterweight that could cap gains if it continues.

    It is the main negative in the period and gives a fair, balanced picture of the forces at work.

August 2026
▲3

Birkenstock beats on Q3 revenue, raises outlook; Burry builds stake

  • Q3 revenue beat and raised full-year guidance Birkenstock's fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 13.3% to €719.5 million, beating expectations, with double-digit growth in every region. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% and adjusted EBITDA to at least €710 million. This tells investors demand for the brand is still strong, pushing the stock up.

    The revenue beat and guidance raise are the core new fundamental event that moved the stock this period.

  • Michael Burry raises stake to 5.2% Investor Michael Burry increased his Birkenstock stake to 5.2%, buying when shares fell below $35. A well-known investor taking a large position can boost confidence and draw attention to the stock, supporting the price even though the company's net profit fell 15%.

    Burry's stake increase is a new, high-profile vote of confidence that can influence other investors.

  • Share buyback and debt refinancing Birkenstock completed a €230 million accelerated share buyback, cutting its share count by nearly 6 million shares, and refinanced its senior notes at a 75 basis point lower interest rate. Fewer shares can lift earnings per share, and lower interest costs free up cash, both helping the stock.

    These capital actions directly affect per-share value and cash flow, key drivers of the stock price.

  • Profit decline and margin pressure offset strong sales Despite the revenue beat, net profit fell 15% to €110 million and gross margin slipped to 59.1% from 60.5%. This shows the company is growing sales but keeping less profit per sale, a real counterweight that could cap gains if it continues.

    It is the main negative in the period and gives a fair, balanced picture of the forces at work.

Latest
▲3

Birkenstock beats on Q3 revenue, raises outlook; Burry builds stake

  • Q3 revenue beat and raised full-year guidance Birkenstock's fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 13.3% to €719.5 million, beating expectations, with double-digit growth in every region. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% and adjusted EBITDA to at least €710 million. This tells investors demand for the brand is still strong, pushing the stock up.

    The revenue beat and guidance raise are the core new fundamental event that moved the stock this period.

  • Michael Burry raises stake to 5.2% Investor Michael Burry increased his Birkenstock stake to 5.2%, buying when shares fell below $35. A well-known investor taking a large position can boost confidence and draw attention to the stock, supporting the price even though the company's net profit fell 15%.

    Burry's stake increase is a new, high-profile vote of confidence that can influence other investors.

  • Share buyback and debt refinancing Birkenstock completed a €230 million accelerated share buyback, cutting its share count by nearly 6 million shares, and refinanced its senior notes at a 75 basis point lower interest rate. Fewer shares can lift earnings per share, and lower interest costs free up cash, both helping the stock.

    These capital actions directly affect per-share value and cash flow, key drivers of the stock price.

  • Profit decline and margin pressure offset strong sales Despite the revenue beat, net profit fell 15% to €110 million and gross margin slipped to 59.1% from 60.5%. This shows the company is growing sales but keeping less profit per sale, a real counterweight that could cap gains if it continues.

    It is the main negative in the period and gives a fair, balanced picture of the forces at work.