← On overview

On vs US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

On Holding Ltd (ONON)

Q3 2026
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On Holding's Q3: Profit Up, Guidance Cut, Stock Falls 20%

  • Strong Q2 profit and margin On Holding reported Q2 profit of CHF 105 million, with gross margin rising to 65.4% and direct-to-consumer sales hitting a record 45.7% of total sales. Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1%, and apparel and tennis categories grew strongly.

    This shows the company's underlying profitability and growth in key areas, which is positive for the stock.

  • Strategic moves and buyback On signed football star Kylian Mbappé, entered the football market, set midterm targets including CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, and authorized a $1 billion share buyback. These moves aim to boost brand and shareholder value.

    These strategic initiatives could drive future growth and support the stock price.

  • Guidance cut and sales miss Despite profit growth, Q2 sales missed estimates, full-year guidance was cut, and U.S. wholesale slowed sharply. The stock fell over 20% as a result, reflecting concerns about future performance.

    This directly explains the stock's decline and negative sentiment during the period.

  • Analyst caution and external risks Jefferies reiterated an Underperform rating, citing slowing Americas growth and limited football potential. Tariffs, promotional athletic demand, and rising short interest add further risks to the stock.

    These factors contribute to negative outlook and pressure on the stock price.

August 2026
▲2▼1

On's growth story meets a guidance cut and a skeptical analyst

  • Guidance cut and Q2 miss, insiders buy the dip On cut its full-year sales guidance and missed second-quarter revenue estimates, with growth slowing and wholesale up only 12.7% as it held back shipments to avoid discounting. The stock fell over 20% on the news. Insiders, including the CEO, bought shares, but that does not erase the weaker outlook.

    This is the main negative force this period, explaining why the stock is down sharply despite strong margins.

  • Mbappé signing opens football, a new market On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike in a cash-and-equity deal, its first major star, with products planned for 2027. This gives On global credibility in football, a huge new category, and is a competitive win against Nike.

    This is the biggest new growth catalyst this period, pushing the stock up by opening a new market.

  • $1 billion buyback and reiterated guidance On authorized a $1 billion share buyback through 2029, appointed a new lead independent director, and reiterated its 2026 earnings guidance. Buybacks shrink the number of shares, which can lift the stock price, and the guidance repeat signals confidence.

    This is a new capital action that supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.

  • Affluent customers help, but Jefferies stays bearish Bernstein rates On Outperform, noting its exposure to higher-income shoppers who spend more on apparel and footwear. But Jefferies reiterates Underperform with a $20 target, citing a limited market for football and slowing Americas growth. Hedge funds added shares, while short interest also rose.

    This shows the real counterweight: a supportive analyst view versus a skeptical one, and mixed positioning.

Latest
▲2▼1

On's growth story meets a guidance cut and a skeptical analyst

  • Guidance cut and Q2 miss, insiders buy the dip On cut its full-year sales guidance and missed second-quarter revenue estimates, with growth slowing and wholesale up only 12.7% as it held back shipments to avoid discounting. The stock fell over 20% on the news. Insiders, including the CEO, bought shares, but that does not erase the weaker outlook.

    This is the main negative force this period, explaining why the stock is down sharply despite strong margins.

  • Mbappé signing opens football, a new market On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike in a cash-and-equity deal, its first major star, with products planned for 2027. This gives On global credibility in football, a huge new category, and is a competitive win against Nike.

    This is the biggest new growth catalyst this period, pushing the stock up by opening a new market.

  • $1 billion buyback and reiterated guidance On authorized a $1 billion share buyback through 2029, appointed a new lead independent director, and reiterated its 2026 earnings guidance. Buybacks shrink the number of shares, which can lift the stock price, and the guidance repeat signals confidence.

    This is a new capital action that supports the stock price by returning cash to shareholders.

  • Affluent customers help, but Jefferies stays bearish Bernstein rates On Outperform, noting its exposure to higher-income shoppers who spend more on apparel and footwear. But Jefferies reiterates Underperform with a $20 target, citing a limited market for football and slowing Americas growth. Hedge funds added shares, while short interest also rose.

    This shows the real counterweight: a supportive analyst view versus a skeptical one, and mixed positioning.

September 2026
▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

July 2026
▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate (USDCHF.FOREX)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

SNB Dovishness Lifts USD/CHF Despite Safe-Haven Franc Demand

  • SNB holds rates at zero, signals readiness to weaken franc The Swiss National Bank kept interest rates at zero and indicated it was ready to weaken the franc, which supported USD/CHF by making the franc less attractive to hold.

    This policy stance was a key force pushing USD/CHF higher during the period.

  • Fed rate-hike expectations and safe-haven dollar demand Expectations that the Federal Reserve might raise rates, along with safe-haven demand for the dollar due to US-Iran tensions, supported USD/CHF by making the dollar more attractive.

    These factors contributed to USD/CHF strength, especially in the first half of the period.

  • Weak US data and AI-driven hedging flows favouring franc Weak US jobs and inflation data, dovish Fed comments, and AI-driven hedging flows that favoured the franc pushed USD/CHF down to around 0.8034, showing that not all forces pointed in the same direction.

    This explains the downward pressure on USD/CHF during the period.

  • Safe-haven franc demand and rising Swiss inflation Safe-haven demand for the franc from geopolitical and Eurozone fiscal worries, plus rising Swiss inflation that fuelled rate-hike bets, could strengthen the franc and push USD/CHF lower.

    These counterweights limited USD/CHF gains and highlight risks to the upward trend.

August 2026
▲2▼2

SNB Dovishness and Safe-Haven Flows Shape USD/CHF

  • SNB Holds Rates, Strikes Dovish Tone The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% and softened its language on currency intervention, signaling it is comfortable with a weaker franc. This drove the franc down broadly, pushing USD/CHF to its highest since May 2025. A dovish SNB reduces the franc's appeal, strengthening the dollar against it.

    This is the dominant new driver: the SNB's dovish hold directly weakened the franc and lifted USD/CHF to multi-month highs.

  • SNB Pushback Against Rate Hike Expectations SNB Vice Chairman Martin said there is no need to adjust monetary policy despite inflation rising to 1.0%, the highest in over two years. This pushed back against market bets for a December rate hike, weakening the franc further. Lower expected Swiss rates make the franc less attractive versus the dollar.

    This reinforces the SNB's dovish stance and directly counters rate-hike expectations, adding downward pressure on the franc.

  • Safe-Haven Demand Supports Franc Geopolitical tensions and Eurozone fiscal worries are driving investors to the Swiss franc as a safe haven. Rabobank expects EUR/CHF to hold near 0.93 due to this demand. Strong safe-haven flows increase demand for francs, which strengthens the franc and pushes USD/CHF down.

    This is the main counterweight: safe-haven demand for the franc limits USD/CHF's rise despite SNB dovishness.

  • Swiss Inflation Fuels Rate Hike Bets Swiss August inflation doubled to 0.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and raising the chance of an earlier SNB rate hike. Higher expected Swiss rates would strengthen the franc. This is a counterforce to the SNB's dovish stance and could push USD/CHF lower if hike bets grow.

    This is a key risk to the positive USD/CHF trend: rising inflation could force the SNB to hike, boosting the franc.

Latest
▲2▼2

SNB Dovishness and Safe-Haven Flows Shape USD/CHF

  • SNB Holds Rates, Strikes Dovish Tone The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% and softened its language on currency intervention, signaling it is comfortable with a weaker franc. This drove the franc down broadly, pushing USD/CHF to its highest since May 2025. A dovish SNB reduces the franc's appeal, strengthening the dollar against it.

    This is the dominant new driver: the SNB's dovish hold directly weakened the franc and lifted USD/CHF to multi-month highs.

  • SNB Pushback Against Rate Hike Expectations SNB Vice Chairman Martin said there is no need to adjust monetary policy despite inflation rising to 1.0%, the highest in over two years. This pushed back against market bets for a December rate hike, weakening the franc further. Lower expected Swiss rates make the franc less attractive versus the dollar.

    This reinforces the SNB's dovish stance and directly counters rate-hike expectations, adding downward pressure on the franc.

  • Safe-Haven Demand Supports Franc Geopolitical tensions and Eurozone fiscal worries are driving investors to the Swiss franc as a safe haven. Rabobank expects EUR/CHF to hold near 0.93 due to this demand. Strong safe-haven flows increase demand for francs, which strengthens the franc and pushes USD/CHF down.

    This is the main counterweight: safe-haven demand for the franc limits USD/CHF's rise despite SNB dovishness.

  • Swiss Inflation Fuels Rate Hike Bets Swiss August inflation doubled to 0.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and raising the chance of an earlier SNB rate hike. Higher expected Swiss rates would strengthen the franc. This is a counterforce to the SNB's dovish stance and could push USD/CHF lower if hike bets grow.

    This is a key risk to the positive USD/CHF trend: rising inflation could force the SNB to hike, boosting the franc.

July 2026
▲2▼2

SNB holds at zero, Fed rate bets and safe-haven flows drive USD/CHF

  • SNB holds rates at zero, ready to weaken franc The Swiss National Bank kept its key rate at zero and said it is increasingly willing to step into currency markets to stop the franc from getting too strong. That caps the franc and supports USD/CHF, because a central bank that fights franc strength makes holding francs less rewarding.

    This is the main policy force keeping a floor under USD/CHF.

  • Fed rate-hike expectations and safe-haven dollar demand Renewed US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices boosted the safe-haven dollar, while Fed minutes showed some officials open to a rate hike and markets priced a 62% chance of a September increase. Higher expected US rates pull money into dollars, lifting USD/CHF.

    This explains the dollar side of the pair and the recent push higher.

  • Weak US jobs and inflation data weigh on the dollar A weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report and slower June Producer Price Index growth, plus dovish comments from Fed officials, pushed the dollar down and USD/CHF to around 0.8034. Softer US data reduce the chance of Fed rate hikes, which weakens the dollar against the franc.

    This is the main counterweight pulling USD/CHF lower.

  • AI-driven hedging flows support the franc Bank of America says currency hedging tied to the AI stock boom is now a bigger FX driver than usual fundamentals, and these flows have generally supported the Swiss franc while putting modest selling pressure on the dollar. That works against USD/CHF.

    It is a structural flow that adds to franc strength, a real counterweight.

▲2▼2

SNB holds at zero, Fed rate bets and safe-haven flows drive USD/CHF

  • SNB holds rates at zero, ready to weaken franc The Swiss National Bank kept its key rate at zero and said it is increasingly willing to step into currency markets to stop the franc from getting too strong. That caps the franc and supports USD/CHF, because a central bank that fights franc strength makes holding francs less rewarding.

    This is the main policy force keeping a floor under USD/CHF.

  • Fed rate-hike expectations and safe-haven dollar demand Renewed US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices boosted the safe-haven dollar, while Fed minutes showed some officials open to a rate hike and markets priced a 62% chance of a September increase. Higher expected US rates pull money into dollars, lifting USD/CHF.

    This explains the dollar side of the pair and the recent push higher.

  • Weak US jobs and inflation data weigh on the dollar A weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report and slower June Producer Price Index growth, plus dovish comments from Fed officials, pushed the dollar down and USD/CHF to around 0.8034. Softer US data reduce the chance of Fed rate hikes, which weakens the dollar against the franc.

    This is the main counterweight pulling USD/CHF lower.

  • AI-driven hedging flows support the franc Bank of America says currency hedging tied to the AI stock boom is now a bigger FX driver than usual fundamentals, and these flows have generally supported the Swiss franc while putting modest selling pressure on the dollar. That works against USD/CHF.

    It is a structural flow that adds to franc strength, a real counterweight.