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Crude Palm Oil vs Soybean Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.

Soybean Futures (SOYBEAN.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Soybeans swung on weather, China, and record crop

  • USDA stock cuts and strong demand Early in the quarter, the USDA cut its estimate of soybean stockpiles, and strong exports and biofuel demand pushed prices to a two-year high. Dry weather in the Midwest also raised fears about the crop.

    This explains the initial bullish driver of the quarter.

  • Midwest rain and crude oil plunge Midwest rain improved crop conditions, and a sharp drop in crude oil prices reduced demand for soy-based biofuels. These factors reversed the rally and sent prices lower.

    This shows the bearish turn that reversed early gains.

  • Chinese purchases and Black Sea fears Later, Chinese buying and concerns about Black Sea grain supply pushed prices to three-year highs. Ongoing Chinese demand and biofuel use provided support.

    This highlights the later bullish factors that drove prices up again.

  • Record crop and China tariff A record 4.5-billion-bushel US crop and favorable weather weighed on prices. China kept a 10% tariff on US soybeans, capping gains. Black Sea peace talks also posed downside risk by potentially normalizing grain exports.

    This shows the bearish factors that limited the upside.

August 2026
▼3▲1

Soybeans hit 3-year high on demand, then tariff and crop caps

  • Chinese demand and Black Sea fears lift soybeans China bought about 7 million tonnes of soybeans, and worries about Black Sea supply, drought, and biofuel policy pushed prices to three-year highs. Crude oil surges and record food prices added support.

    This explains the main upward force on soybean prices during the period.

  • Record US crop and good weather cap gains The USDA raised its US production estimate to a record near 4.5 billion bushels, and favorable Midwest weather boosted yields. This ample supply limited how high prices could go.

    This shows the key supply-side factor that prevented further price increases.

  • China keeps 10% tariff on US soybeans After a summit, China decided to keep a 10% tariff on US soybeans, removing a key reason for demand optimism and pressuring prices. This was a major bearish factor.

    This highlights a new policy decision that weighed on soybean prices.

  • Black Sea peace talks pose downside risk Peace talks in the Black Sea region could normalize grain exports, adding potential supply and weighing on prices. This uncertainty kept the outlook mixed.

    This points to a geopolitical development that could increase supply and pressure prices.

Latest
▼2▲1

China's Soybean Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Weigh on Prices

  • China Keeps 10% Tariff on US Soybeans China left its extra 10% tariff on US soybeans in place and excluded them from a $30 billion tariff-cut list after the US-China summit. This keeps Chinese buyers hesitant, removes a key demand boost, and pressures soybean prices down.

    This is the clearest new demand-side negative for soybean prices this period.

  • Record US Crop and Favorable Weather Add Supply The USDA and StoneX projected a record US soybean crop near 4.5 billion bushels, and timely Midwest rains supported yields. Ample supply pushes prices down, even as early harvest progress ran slightly behind expectations.

    This is the main new supply-side force weighing on soybean prices.

  • China Still Buys US Soybeans, Crush Demand Strong China kept buying US soybeans, including a 340,000-tonne sale, and has purchased about 7 million tonnes. Strong US crush volumes and solid export inspections show real demand, providing a floor under prices despite the tariff dispute.

    This is the main new counterweight supporting soybean prices.

  • Weather, Biofuel and Black Sea Risks Add Uncertainty Heavy Midwest rain slowed harvest and raised crop-quality worries, supporting prices, while high crude oil boosted biofuel demand for soybean oil. Black Sea war disruptions and peace hopes kept grain supply uncertain, adding both support and pressure.

    These cross-cutting forces explain the mixed, choppy price action around the main drivers.

September 2026
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China's Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Pull Soybeans Down

  • China Leaves Soybeans Off Tariff-Cut List China cut tariffs on many US farm goods but excluded soybeans, keeping an extra 10% import tax that private buyers say is too costly. This removes a key demand boost and pushed soybean futures down 2.3%.

    This is the main new bearish event that directly hit soybean demand and price.

  • USDA Forecasts Record US Soybean Crop The USDA projected a record 4.54 billion bushel soybean crop with higher yields, adding to global supply. Ample supply pushes prices down, and futures fell over 2.6% on the news.

    This new supply shock is a major reason soybean prices are under pressure.

  • China's Ongoing Soybean Purchases Support Demand China continues buying US soybeans, helping lift the overall farm commodity index 13% last quarter. This steady demand provides a floor under prices even as other factors weigh.

    This is a new positive demand factor that counterbalances the bearish news.

  • Black Sea Tensions and Biofuel Demand Add Uncertainty Fighting in the Black Sea keeps grain shipments disrupted, supporting prices, while hopes for a ceasefire could ease supply. Meanwhile, biofuel demand from high oil prices supports soybean oil use.

    These ongoing geopolitical and energy factors create both upward and downward pressure on soybeans.

▼2▲1

China's Tariff Snub and Record US Crop Pull Soybeans Down

  • China Leaves Soybeans Off Tariff-Cut List China cut tariffs on many US farm goods but excluded soybeans, keeping an extra 10% import tax that private buyers say is too costly. This removes a key demand boost and pushed soybean futures down 2.3%.

    This is the main new bearish event that directly hit soybean demand and price.

  • USDA Forecasts Record US Soybean Crop The USDA projected a record 4.54 billion bushel soybean crop with higher yields, adding to global supply. Ample supply pushes prices down, and futures fell over 2.6% on the news.

    This new supply shock is a major reason soybean prices are under pressure.

  • China's Ongoing Soybean Purchases Support Demand China continues buying US soybeans, helping lift the overall farm commodity index 13% last quarter. This steady demand provides a floor under prices even as other factors weigh.

    This is a new positive demand factor that counterbalances the bearish news.

  • Black Sea Tensions and Biofuel Demand Add Uncertainty Fighting in the Black Sea keeps grain shipments disrupted, supporting prices, while hopes for a ceasefire could ease supply. Meanwhile, biofuel demand from high oil prices supports soybean oil use.

    These ongoing geopolitical and energy factors create both upward and downward pressure on soybeans.

▲3▼1

China's Record Soybean Buying and Biofuel Boost Drive Prices to 3-Year High

  • China's Accelerated Soybean Purchases China bought about 1 million tonnes of US soybeans this week, bringing total purchases to nearly half of the 25 million tonne annual target. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer pushes soybean prices up.

    This is the main new demand driver this period, directly lifting soybean prices to a three-year high.

  • US Biofuel Policy Supports Soybean Demand The EPA granted waivers to small refineries but reallocated the lost biofuel demand to 2026 and 2027, boosting prospects for soybean oil used in renewable diesel. This regulatory support lifts soybean prices.

    This new policy change directly increases demand for soybeans as a biofuel feedstock, a key bullish factor.

  • Black Sea Peace Talks Could Ease Supply Fears Russia signaled openness to peace talks with Ukraine, potentially normalizing Black Sea grain exports. If realized, this would add to global grain supply and pressure soybean prices down.

    This is a new geopolitical development that could reverse the supply-driven price support from the Black Sea conflict.

  • Crude Oil Surge Boosts Biofuel Demand Crude oil prices jumped 4%, with Brent touching $105 a barrel, after tanker attacks. Higher oil prices make biofuels more competitive, increasing demand for soybean oil and supporting soybean prices.

    This new energy market development adds to soybean demand through the biofuel channel, reinforcing the bullish trend.

▲3▼1

Soybeans Supported by Strong Chinese Demand and Black Sea Supply Fears, but USDA Hikes US Crop Outlook

  • China ramps up US soybean purchases China booked at least 13 more cargoes of US soybeans, bringing new-crop orders to about 5 million tonnes. That shows strong demand from the world's biggest buyer, which supports soybean prices.

    This is a new demand event that directly lifts soybean prices.

  • Black Sea tensions threaten grain exports Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted Black Sea grain shipments, and Ukraine cut its export target by up to 12%. That raises concerns about global grain supplies, pushing soybean prices higher as buyers seek alternatives.

    This is a new supply-side risk that supports soybean prices.

  • Global food prices hit three-year high on drought worries World food prices rose to their highest in over three years, driven by cereals and vegetable oils. Drought in key US growing areas is stressing the soybean crop, which could tighten supplies and push prices up.

    This new report highlights supply risks that support soybean prices.

  • USDA raises US soybean production estimate The USDA now expects a bigger US soybean crop, with production up 44 million bushels from July. That means more supply ahead, which weighs on soybean prices and limits gains from strong demand.

    This is a new supply increase that pressures soybean prices.

July 2026
▲2▼1

Soybeans hit 2-year high then reversed on rain and oil drop

  • Bullish fundamentals lift soybeans to 2-year high USDA cut old-crop stocks by 10 million bushels, export sales ran nearly triple last year's pace, crude oil strength boosted biofuel demand, and dry Corn Belt weather threatened yields, pushing futures to two-year highs.

    Explains the initial surge that defined the first part of the month.

  • Midwest rain and crude oil plunge reverse rally Forecast rain improved crop prospects, pushing November beans from $12.53 to $11.93, while crude oil's $6–7 plunge made soy-based biodiesel less competitive and dragged soy oil lower.

    Captures the sharp late-July reversal driven by weather and energy markets.

  • Solid demand partly offsets bearish factors A large Chinese purchase under a 25-million-ton agreement and Bunge's upbeat profit outlook signaled solid demand, though these positives were outweighed by weather and energy-market pressure.

    Shows the counterweight that limited the downside despite the selloff.

▼2▲1

Soybeans Fall as Rain Hits Dry US Crop and Oil Slumps

  • Rain forecast eases crop stress Forecasts for 1–2 inches of rain across the Midwest and favorable growing conditions pushed soybean futures down sharply, with November beans falling from $12.53 to $11.93. More rain means better crop prospects and larger expected supplies, which lowers prices.

    This is the main new force this period, directly driving the price drop.

  • Crude oil plunge drags soy oil lower Crude oil fell over $6–7 per barrel, making biodiesel from soybean oil less competitive. That weakens demand for soy oil and pulls soybean prices down, since soy oil is a key product made from soybeans.

    Oil's drop is a new negative demand-side driver this period.

  • China purchase hopes and strong processor results News of a large Chinese soybean purchase and Bunge's upbeat profit outlook signal solid demand. China's buying under a 25 million ton agreement and strong processing margins support prices, though these positives were outweighed by weather and oil pressure.

    This is a new positive counterweight that helps explain why the decline wasn't even larger.

▲4

Soybeans Hit Two-Year Highs on Tight US Stocks, Strong Exports, Biofuel Demand

  • USDA cuts old-crop stocks, exports jump The USDA's July report cut 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 330 million, as exports rose by the same amount. That means supplies are tighter than expected, which pushes soybean prices up.

    This is a key new fundamental shift tightening US soybean supplies.

  • Record forward export sales signal strong demand USDA reported forward sales for the 2026/27 marketing year at 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year's pace, with China and unknown buyers active. Strong demand for future delivery supports higher prices now.

    This new data shows robust demand that is driving prices higher.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for soy oil Crude oil prices jumped on Middle East tensions, making biodiesel made from soybean oil more competitive. That links soybean prices to energy markets and adds a new source of demand, pushing prices up.

    This new link to energy markets is a fresh driver of soybean demand.

  • Dry weather threatens US soybean yields Dry conditions in parts of the western Corn Belt and forecasts for continued dryness are stressing the soybean crop. Lower expected yields mean tighter supplies, which supports higher prices.

    Weather is a new supply risk that is pushing prices up.