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Procter & Gamble vs Crude Palm Oil: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

Q3 2026
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P&G's profit squeezed by tariffs and trade-down, but wellness bet and dividends offer support

  • Tariffs and commodity costs to cut profit by ~$1B P&G expects tariffs and higher commodity costs to reduce fiscal 2027 profit by about $1 billion, or $0.56 per share. This is a direct hit to earnings and a key reason guidance is cautious.

    This is a major new cost headwind that directly pressures P&G's profit and stock price.

  • Consumers trading down to cheaper store brands Volumes remain flat as consumers switch to cheaper store-brand products. This weak demand limits P&G's ability to raise prices and grow sales, contributing to slower 1–3% organic growth guidance.

    It explains the weak demand environment and why revenue missed estimates.

  • Buying Thorne for $3.8B to expand into wellness P&G is acquiring supplement maker Thorne for $3.8 billion, moving into the fast-growing wellness market. This diversification could open new revenue streams beyond traditional household products.

    It shows a strategic move to offset weak core growth and enter a higher-growth category.

  • 70-year dividend streak with ~$15B payouts planned P&G is extending its 70-year dividend streak with roughly $15 billion in planned fiscal 2027 payouts, offering a 2.9% yield near five-year highs. This income appeal supports the stock price.

    It highlights a key attraction for investors and a support for the share price amid earnings pressure.

August 2026
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P&G buys Thorne, beauty shines, but cost headwinds and flat volumes persist

  • Thorne acquisition expands wellness reach P&G agreed to buy supplement maker Thorne for $3.8 billion, moving into faster-growing wellness and reaching younger shoppers. This diversification aims to offset slower growth in core categories.

    This is a new strategic move that could drive future growth and investor optimism.

  • Beauty growth and innovation revive key brands Beauty sales grew 11%, and innovation revived Tide and China Baby Care. These successes show P&G's ability to rejuvenate brands and capture demand despite overall flat volumes.

    Highlights new operational wins that support revenue and sentiment.

  • Dividend streak extended with $15B payout planned P&G extended its 70-year dividend streak and plans roughly $15 billion in fiscal 2027 payouts. This reinforces its reputation as a reliable income stock, attracting yield-focused investors.

    New confirmation of shareholder returns that supports the stock's appeal.

  • Cost headwinds and flat volumes limit growth Fiscal 2027 faces an 8% core EPS headwind from about $1.4 billion in after-tax cost pressures. Sales volumes stayed flat as shoppers traded down to cheaper store brands, limiting growth without price increases.

    These are new details on persistent challenges that could pressure earnings and stock performance.

Latest
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P&G's slow growth and cost headwinds offset by innovation and dividend strength

  • Cost headwinds to squeeze fiscal 2027 earnings P&G faces an 8% core EPS headwind in fiscal 2027, with $1.4 billion in after-tax pressures from higher raw materials, energy, transportation, interest, and currency. This will likely keep profit growth muted and weigh on the stock until productivity savings offset the drag.

    This is the main new negative force that explains why PG may struggle to rise despite defensive appeal.

  • Innovation revives key categories and drives premium mix P&G's biggest Tide upgrade in decades lifted Tide from declining to high-single-digit growth, while premium diaper innovation returned China Baby Care to No. 1 with double-digit growth. New Head & Shoulders, Oral-B iO, and Pantene launches further support higher-value product mix.

    These new product successes show a path to volume and mix improvement, which can lift sales and profits.

  • Dividend streak and cash returns underpin defensive appeal P&G extended its dividend increase streak to 70 years and plans to return about $15 billion via dividends and buybacks in fiscal 2027, backed by strong cash flow. This steady income makes the stock attractive when investors seek safety.

    The reliable dividend and buybacks are a key support for PG's valuation, especially amid growth concerns.

  • Analyst upgrade and leadership transition offer modest support Evercore ISI upgraded PG to outperform with a $166 price target, citing defensive qualities. Meanwhile, Shailesh Jejurikar became Chairman while keeping the CEO role, a continuity move that may speed decisions but concentrates power.

    These new developments provide a small positive catalyst but also introduce governance uncertainty.

▲3▼1

P&G buys Thorne for wellness push, but volumes stay flat

  • P&G buys Thorne for $3.8 billion P&G agreed to buy supplement maker Thorne for $3.8 billion in cash, expanding into vitamins and wellness. This gives P&G a faster-growing category and a way to reach younger shoppers, which supports the stock by adding a new source of future sales.

    The Thorne acquisition is the period's biggest new event and directly shapes P&G's growth story.

  • Beauty segment grows 11%, dividend streak hits 70 years P&G's beauty unit posted 11% sales growth and 7% organic growth on higher volumes, while the company extended its dividend increase streak to 70 years with $10 billion planned payouts. Strong beauty results and steady dividends make the stock more attractive to long-term holders.

    This shows which part of P&G is actually growing and reinforces the income appeal that supports the share price.

  • Analysts say P&G stock looks undervalued After the Thorne deal, valuation work put P&G's intrinsic value near $201 a share, about 29% above the recent $143 price, and its price-to-earnings ratio below a fair level. A cheaper-looking stock can draw buyers, though the same analysis flags mixed valuation checks and cost risks.

    It explains a fresh reason investors might bid the stock up, while noting the counterweight.

  • Big consumer brands lose volume as shoppers trade down P&G's sales volume failed to grow in the latest quarter, part of a broad slide at large packaged-goods makers as shoppers switch to cheaper store brands and newer rivals. Flat volumes limit how much P&G can grow without price increases, which pressures the stock.

    It is the main new negative force and a real counterweight to the acquisition and valuation optimism.

July 2026
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P&G's costs bite: tariff and commodity headwinds hit profit and guidance

  • Tariff and commodity costs squeeze profit P&G says tariffs and higher raw material and energy costs will cut full-year profit by about $1 billion, or $0.56 a share. That directly lowers expected earnings, which is why the stock fell after results.

    This is the core new force behind the price move: real cost headwinds hitting profit.

  • Fourth-quarter revenue missed and profit fell April–June sales of $21.2 billion came in below the $21.38 billion analysts expected, and net income dropped to $3.04 billion from $3.62 billion a year earlier. The miss and weaker profit pushed shares down over 3%.

    The earnings miss is the immediate trigger for the negative price reaction.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to slower growth P&G guided fiscal 2027 organic sales growth of just 1% to 3% and core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11, a slower pace than before. Weak forward guidance makes investors less willing to pay up for the stock.

    Forward guidance shapes expectations and is a key reason the stock stays under pressure.

  • Cost cuts and dividend support, but consumer strain lingers P&G is cutting 7,000 office jobs to protect margins and still returns over $15 billion to shareholders, with a 2.9% dividend yield near five-year highs. But shoppers are pushing back on price hikes and lower-income households are stretched.

    This is the real counterweight: cost savings and shareholder returns offset some weakness, but demand is soft.

▼3

P&G's costs bite: tariff and commodity headwinds hit profit and guidance

  • Tariff and commodity costs squeeze profit P&G says tariffs and higher raw material and energy costs will cut full-year profit by about $1 billion, or $0.56 a share. That directly lowers expected earnings, which is why the stock fell after results.

    This is the core new force behind the price move: real cost headwinds hitting profit.

  • Fourth-quarter revenue missed and profit fell April–June sales of $21.2 billion came in below the $21.38 billion analysts expected, and net income dropped to $3.04 billion from $3.62 billion a year earlier. The miss and weaker profit pushed shares down over 3%.

    The earnings miss is the immediate trigger for the negative price reaction.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to slower growth P&G guided fiscal 2027 organic sales growth of just 1% to 3% and core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11, a slower pace than before. Weak forward guidance makes investors less willing to pay up for the stock.

    Forward guidance shapes expectations and is a key reason the stock stays under pressure.

  • Cost cuts and dividend support, but consumer strain lingers P&G is cutting 7,000 office jobs to protect margins and still returns over $15 billion to shareholders, with a 2.9% dividend yield near five-year highs. But shoppers are pushing back on price hikes and lower-income households are stretched.

    This is the real counterweight: cost savings and shareholder returns offset some weakness, but demand is soft.

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.