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Ratch Group Public Company Limited (RATCH.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Ratch pivots to data centers, but weak Q2 and insider selling weigh

  • Data center pivot drives growth Ratch set a 20 billion baht investment budget and is pursuing 10–15 year power deals with five to six data-center customers needing up to 1,400 MW, driving broker upgrades and a higher share price.

    This is the main new growth catalyst that lifted the stock.

  • Thailand's PDP2026 supports expansion Thailand's new power plan may extend gas IPP contracts and add renewables, while suspended Bangkok data-center permits push demand to Ratch's EEC sites, supporting future growth.

    Regulatory tailwinds and permit shifts benefit Ratch's project pipeline.

  • Q3 profit expected to rebound Q3 profit was expected to rebound to 1.4–1.6 billion baht, signaling a recovery from the prior quarter's weakness.

    Earnings recovery expectation is a key positive driver for the stock.

  • Weak Q2 and insider selling Q2 core profit fell 41% year-on-year, prompting a downgrade and 16% forecast cuts; the interim dividend was cut to 0.70 baht, and major shareholder Prateep Tangmatitham reduced his stake to a six-year low of 0.87%.

    These negative factors counterbalanced the positive data-center news.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Ratch pivots to data centers, but weak Q2 and insider selling weigh

  • Data center pivot drives growth Ratch set a 20 billion baht investment budget and is pursuing 10–15 year power deals with five to six data-center customers needing up to 1,400 MW, driving broker upgrades and a higher share price.

    This is the main new growth catalyst that lifted the stock.

  • Thailand's PDP2026 supports expansion Thailand's new power plan may extend gas IPP contracts and add renewables, while suspended Bangkok data-center permits push demand to Ratch's EEC sites, supporting future growth.

    Regulatory tailwinds and permit shifts benefit Ratch's project pipeline.

  • Q3 profit expected to rebound Q3 profit was expected to rebound to 1.4–1.6 billion baht, signaling a recovery from the prior quarter's weakness.

    Earnings recovery expectation is a key positive driver for the stock.

  • Weak Q2 and insider selling Q2 core profit fell 41% year-on-year, prompting a downgrade and 16% forecast cuts; the interim dividend was cut to 0.70 baht, and major shareholder Prateep Tangmatitham reduced his stake to a six-year low of 0.87%.

    These negative factors counterbalanced the positive data-center news.

Latest
▲3

RATCH's data-center pivot and PPA renewal hopes drive upgrades

  • Data-center power deals could replace expiring contracts RATCH is in talks with five to six data-center customers, each needing at least 300MW, with capacity to serve up to 1,400MW on 2,000 rai of land under 10-15 year supply deals. This could replace revenue from expiring power contracts and is a major new growth path.

    This is the biggest new growth driver, turning expiring contracts into a new customer base.

  • PDP2026 may extend old power plant contracts by 7 years Thailand's new power plan may let existing gas plants extend their power purchase agreements by seven years, focusing on plants needed for grid stability like those in the EEC. RATCH's gas-fired IPP plants may qualify, reducing the risk that its contracts simply expire.

    This directly addresses the main risk to RATCH's earnings from expiring contracts.

  • Broker upgrades and strong Q3 profit outlook Yuanta rated RATCH a Buy with a 46.25 baht target, expecting Q3 2026 profit of 1.4-1.6 billion baht, up from Q2, as the RG and Hin Kong plants return to full operation after maintenance. First-half profit of 2.63 billion baht beat expectations.

    Shows analysts see improving earnings and value, which supports the share price.

  • Interim dividend paid, but major shareholder cut his stake RATCH paid an interim dividend of 0.70 baht per share (1.52 billion baht total) on September 24. However, major shareholder Prateep Tangmatitham cut his stake to 0.87%, the lowest in six years, which may signal caution even as the company returns cash.

    The dividend is a positive cash return, but the insider selling is a real counterweight investors should know.

▲4

RATCH's data-center pivot and new power plan drive upgrades

  • PDP2026 opens new power investment cycle Thailand's new power plan (PDP2026) may extend gas-fired IPP plants and add solar, wind and direct power deals. Brokers say this creates a fresh investment cycle for power producers, with RATCH named as a beneficiary. New capacity is not yet in profit estimates, so it offers upside.

    A national energy plan that expands power capacity directly supports RATCH's future revenue and growth outlook.

  • Data-center rules push demand to RATCH's sites Thailand suspended 166 data-center projects and is tightening rules, pushing operators to industrial estates like the EEC. Analysts say this favors firms with land, power and utilities ready. RATCH is cited as a likely winner, with its Ratchaburi site and plans to supply power and water to data centers.

    Stricter data-center rules redirect demand toward RATCH's prepared sites, creating a new customer base for its power.

  • Broker upgrades on dividends and growth KGI upgraded RATCH to Buy and raised its target price to 43 baht from 29 baht, expecting a 1.50 baht dividend. CGS International also upgraded to Buy after the Ratchaburi plant contract was renewed to 2034 and HKP is fully consolidated from late 2025. These upgrades support the share price.

    Analyst upgrades and higher target prices directly influence investor sentiment and buying interest in RATCH.

  • RATCH eyes 500–700 MW Indonesia plant and 10bn baht yearly budget RATCH is in talks to bid for a 500–700 MW gas-fired IPP plant in Indonesia and has set an average investment budget of about 10 billion baht per year for pipeline projects, Indonesian expansion and SMR nuclear studies. It also plans to refurbish old IPP plants to supply power and water to data centers.

    New overseas projects and a clear investment budget show RATCH is actively growing, which can lift long-term earnings expectations.

▲3▼1

RATCH pivots to data centers and growth, outweighing weak Q2 profit

  • Q2 profit miss and broker downgrade RATCH fell 4.46% after Krungsri Securities cut 2026-2028 profit forecasts by 16% and downgraded to Neutral. Weak Q2 core profit, down 41% year-on-year, came from poor Hongsa, Paiton and renewable plant contributions, with Q3 also expected to decline.

    This is the main negative force that started the period and explains why the stock was under pressure.

  • Data center pivot with 1,400 MW demand RATCH rose 3% after signaling a shift to data centers at its Ratchaburi site, with customers expressing demand for up to 1,400 megawatts. KGI upgraded to Outperform and raised its target price to 43 baht, seeing higher returns than PPA renewals.

    This is the key new growth story that changed the stock's direction upward.

  • 20 billion baht investment budget and dividend cut for growth RATCH set a 20 billion baht five-year investment budget for renewable expansion and announced a lower interim dividend of 0.70 baht per share to retain cash. Brokers upgraded to Buy, viewing the stock as transitioning from a dividend stock to a growth stock.

    This shows the company is prioritizing growth investments, which supports a higher valuation.

  • Bangkok data center permit review redirects investment to EEC Bangkok plans to temporarily suspend new data center permits for regulatory review, pushing operators to the Eastern Economic Corridor. Analysts say power plant stocks like RATCH will benefit long-term as data centers relocate to areas with better infrastructure.

    This regulatory shift reinforces RATCH's data center opportunity by directing demand to its preferred locations.

Banpu Power Public Company Limited (BPP.BK)