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Natural Rubber (RSS)RUBBER.COMM

Why is Natural Rubber (RSS) (RUBBER.COMM) moving?

Q3 2026
▲3

Natural rubber hits near 10-year highs on weather, tariffs, and EU demand

  • Super El Niño and heavy rain cut Southeast Asian supply A 95%-likely super El Niño and heavy rain reduced Thai and Indonesian rubber output, with Indonesia possibly down 25%. This tight supply pushed prices to near 10-year highs.

    Supply disruptions were a primary bullish force during the quarter.

  • EUDR-compliant sales divert rubber to Europe EUDR-compliant sales shifted rubber to Europe, tightening the regular market. This diversion added upward pressure on prices as available supply for other buyers shrank.

    EUDR diversion was a key factor tightening the market.

  • US tariff exemptions and discount to synthetic boost demand US tariff exemptions for rubber gloves promised stronger demand, while natural rubber's 20% discount to synthetic encouraged switching among glove and tire makers. Chinese and Indian demand remained solid.

    Demand-side boosts from tariffs and price advantage supported prices.

  • High prices and modest tire demand could cap gains High prices may curb buying, global tire demand grows only 1–3%, extra Ivory Coast supply could partially offset losses, and EUDR stockpiling may ease once buying slows. These factors could limit further price increases.

    This counterweight shows risks that might prevent prices from rising further.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Rubber hits near 10-year high on heavy rain, tight supply

  • Heavy rain cuts Southeast Asian rubber supply Heavy rain in Thailand and Indonesia reduced rubber supply, with Indonesian output possibly down 25% and Thai output 5–12% lower. This tight supply was the main driver pushing prices to near 10-year highs.

    This is the primary new supply shock that drove prices up during the period.

  • EUDR-compliant sales divert rubber to Europe EUDR-compliant rubber sales were expected to double to about 60,000 tonnes in Q4, pulling more rubber into Europe and tightening the regular market. This added upward pressure on prices.

    This new demand shift tightened the non-EU market and supported higher prices.

  • Natural rubber discount encourages switching Natural rubber stayed about 20% cheaper than synthetic, prompting glove and tire makers to switch to natural rubber. Strong Chinese and Indian demand added further support to prices.

    This price advantage boosted demand for natural rubber, contributing to the price rally.

  • Risks could cap further price gains High prices could curb buying, overall tire demand grows only 1–3%, extra Ivory Coast supply may partially offset losses, and EUDR stockpiling could later ease tightness once buying slows.

    These are real counterweights that could limit or reverse price increases.

Latest
▲4

Rubber stays high as heavy rain cuts supply and EUDR demand grows

  • Heavy rain keeps cutting rubber supply Heavy rain is expected to stop rubber tapping in Thailand through early October, and producers are stockpiling raw material to keep running. Less rubber available pushes prices up, and this tight supply is the main force behind the high prices.

    This is the core supply force lifting RUBBER.COMM prices this period.

  • Thai and Indonesian output seen falling sharply Analysts expect Thailand's rubber output to fall about 5-12% this year and Indonesia's by about 25%, with extra supply from Ivory Coast too small to fill the gap. Average selling prices are forecast to rise to USD 2.3-2.5 per kilogram in the second half from USD 2.1 in the first half.

    It quantifies the shrinking global supply that keeps RUBBER.COMM prices elevated.

  • EUDR rules pull rubber into Europe, tightening other markets EU deforestation rules are diverting more rubber into the EUDR-compliant market, which tightens supply in the regular market and supports prices there. Producers expect EUDR sales to jump to about 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter from 17,000 in the second quarter.

    It shows a new regulatory demand shift that supports RUBBER.COMM prices.

  • Strong buying from tire makers and India Demand from major tire makers, especially in China and India, remains strong, and India's import-tax exemption is expected to lift block rubber prices to 75-80 baht per kilogram. Growth in electric vehicles also supports long-term rubber demand.

    It explains the demand side that keeps RUBBER.COMM prices high.

▲4

Rubber climbs as heavy rain cuts supply and EUDR demand builds

  • Heavy rain cuts Thai and Indonesian rubber supply Heavy rain in Thailand and Indonesia is reducing rubber output, with Indonesia's production possibly down 25% this year. Less rubber available pushes prices up. Analysts now expect Thai output to fall about 5%, and this tight supply is the main force lifting natural rubber prices.

    This is the core new supply shock driving prices higher this period.

  • Rubber futures hit near 10-year highs Tokyo and Singapore rubber futures jumped to their highest in almost ten years, with SICOM TSR20 above 240 US cents per kilogram. This shows the market is pricing in tight supply and strong demand, and it pulls physical rubber prices up with it.

    It confirms the price move is real and broad, not just one company's view.

  • EUDR rubber sales set to double in Q4 STA expects EUDR-compliant rubber sales to double to about 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, as European buyers resume orders before the EU deforestation rule takes effect. This adds higher-priced demand for natural rubber, supporting prices.

    It is a new demand source that tightens the market further.

  • Natural rubber stays cheaper than synthetic Natural rubber remains about 20% cheaper than synthetic rubber, so glove and tire makers are switching to natural rubber. This steady extra demand helps keep prices high even as overall tire demand grows only 1-3%.

    It explains a real demand pull that supports prices beyond supply worries.

August 2026
▲4

Rubber prices climb on tight supply, strong demand, and El Niño threat

  • US tariff exemption for rubber gloves could boost demand Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions for rubber gloves, which would lower costs for US buyers and increase demand for natural rubber used in gloves. This supports higher rubber prices.

    New trade policy could directly increase demand for rubber, pushing prices up.

  • Major rubber firms cut sales targets and delay expansion due to El Niño NER lowered its 2026 sales target and postponed a new factory because El Niño may reduce rubber output. This signals tighter future supply, which tends to raise prices.

    Supply cuts from major producers directly reduce availability, supporting higher prices.

  • Strong quarterly earnings and higher selling prices for rubber producers STA and TEGH reported strong profits with average rubber prices up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter and 29.7% year-on-year. This confirms robust demand and pricing power, supporting higher rubber prices.

    Earnings and price data show strong demand and pricing, reinforcing upward price pressure.

  • Super El Niño probability jumps to 95%, threatening Southeast Asian rubber output A super El Niño is now 95% likely, which could cause drought and lower rubber production in Southeast Asia. Reduced supply would push natural rubber prices higher.

    Extreme weather is a major supply risk that directly supports higher rubber prices.

▲4

Rubber prices climb on tight supply, strong demand, and El Niño threat

  • US tariff exemption for rubber gloves could boost demand Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions for rubber gloves, which would lower costs for US buyers and increase demand for natural rubber used in gloves. This supports higher rubber prices.

    New trade policy could directly increase demand for rubber, pushing prices up.

  • Major rubber firms cut sales targets and delay expansion due to El Niño NER lowered its 2026 sales target and postponed a new factory because El Niño may reduce rubber output. This signals tighter future supply, which tends to raise prices.

    Supply cuts from major producers directly reduce availability, supporting higher prices.

  • Strong quarterly earnings and higher selling prices for rubber producers STA and TEGH reported strong profits with average rubber prices up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter and 29.7% year-on-year. This confirms robust demand and pricing power, supporting higher rubber prices.

    Earnings and price data show strong demand and pricing, reinforcing upward price pressure.

  • Super El Niño probability jumps to 95%, threatening Southeast Asian rubber output A super El Niño is now 95% likely, which could cause drought and lower rubber production in Southeast Asia. Reduced supply would push natural rubber prices higher.

    Extreme weather is a major supply risk that directly supports higher rubber prices.