← Smothong overview

Smothong vs Charoen Pokphand Foods: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Smothong Group Public Company Limited (SMO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

September 2026
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

Latest
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (CPF.BK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

CPF beats Q2, plans Vietnam IPO, but China pig losses and tilapia lawsuit weigh

  • Q2 profit beat and Vietnam IPO plan CPF beat Q2 profit forecasts by 13–20%, helped by strong exports and Vietnam, and plans a Vietnam IPO that could unlock value. This shows the core business is performing better than expected and offers a new way to grow.

    This is the main new positive event that drove the stock this period.

  • Weak baht, El Niño meat prices, export demand A weak baht makes Thai exports cheaper, El Niño is pushing meat prices up, and export demand is surging. CPF is seen as a safe haven. These forces support earnings and make the stock more attractive.

    These external factors are new tailwinds that lifted CPF's outlook and price.

  • China pig JV loss and future feed cost squeeze CPF's China pig joint venture lost about 2 billion baht and may take 1–2 years to recover. Also, El Niño will raise feed costs from late 2027, squeezing margins. These are real drags on future profits.

    This is a major new negative that could hold back earnings and investor confidence.

  • Blackchin tilapia lawsuit and falling pork prices A blackchin tilapia class action creates legal uncertainty, and pork prices fell across Thailand, Vietnam, and China. However, hedged feed costs and record chicken prices cushion margins. The lawsuit and price drops are new concerns.

    These are new risks that emerged this period and could pressure the stock.

August 2026
▲2▼2

CPF beats Q2, plans Vietnam IPO, but China pig losses and tilapia lawsuit weigh

  • Q2 profit beat and Vietnam IPO plan CPF beat Q2 profit forecasts by 13–20%, helped by strong exports and Vietnam, and plans a Vietnam IPO that could unlock value. This shows the core business is performing better than expected and offers a new way to grow.

    This is the main new positive event that drove the stock this period.

  • Weak baht, El Niño meat prices, export demand A weak baht makes Thai exports cheaper, El Niño is pushing meat prices up, and export demand is surging. CPF is seen as a safe haven. These forces support earnings and make the stock more attractive.

    These external factors are new tailwinds that lifted CPF's outlook and price.

  • China pig JV loss and future feed cost squeeze CPF's China pig joint venture lost about 2 billion baht and may take 1–2 years to recover. Also, El Niño will raise feed costs from late 2027, squeezing margins. These are real drags on future profits.

    This is a major new negative that could hold back earnings and investor confidence.

  • Blackchin tilapia lawsuit and falling pork prices A blackchin tilapia class action creates legal uncertainty, and pork prices fell across Thailand, Vietnam, and China. However, hedged feed costs and record chicken prices cushion margins. The lawsuit and price drops are new concerns.

    These are new risks that emerged this period and could pressure the stock.

Latest
▲2▼1

CPF Expands Beverage Business, Faces Legal Risk and Mixed Meat Prices

  • Beverage expansion via acquisitions CPF bought 76.57% of Vietnam's LVDM for 336 million baht and 51% of Thailand's BREW for 334.7 million baht, entering drinks and bottled water. These small deals diversify revenue but add little near-term profit, so they support sentiment more than earnings.

    Shows CPF's strategic move into new beverage markets, a fresh growth angle for investors.

  • Blackchin tilapia class action proceeds An Appeals Court allowed a class-action lawsuit against CPF over the blackchin tilapia invasion to move forward. CPF says liability isn't decided yet, but the case creates legal uncertainty and potential damages, which can weigh on the stock until resolved.

    A new legal risk that could hurt CPF's finances and investor confidence.

  • Meat prices diverge; feed costs hedged Chicken prices hit a near four-year high on strong exports, but pork prices fell in Thailand, Vietnam and China due to higher supply and flooding. CPF has locked in feed costs, which limits the hit from rising soybean meal, so overall margins stay supported.

    Explains the key price trends driving CPF's core meat business profitability.

  • Weak baht and safe-haven status Foreign investors sold Thai stocks heavily, but CPF was named a safe-haven stock that benefits from a weak baht, as its exports earn more when converted back. This supports demand for CPF shares even as the broader market faces outflows.

    Highlights a fresh reason CPF attracts buyers amid market volatility.

▲3▼1

Weak Baht and El Niño Lift CPF, but Feed Costs Loom

  • Weak baht boosts export earnings The Thai baht fell to a 14-month low and is expected to stay weak after US and Japanese rate hikes widened the interest gap. A weaker baht makes CPF's chicken and shrimp exports cheaper and raises the baht value of foreign sales, directly lifting profit.

    This is a core new force driving CPF's export revenue and was highlighted by multiple brokers.

  • El Niño to tighten meat supply and raise prices Forecasters see a strong El Niño late this year, bringing heat that slows pig and chicken growth and cuts supply. Historically pork prices rise about 17% in such periods, which would boost CPF's meat selling prices and profit.

    This is a new, specific supply-side driver that brokers say will lift meat prices and benefit CPF.

  • Strong export demand and Q3 profit recovery Thailand's August exports jumped 24.3%, with processed chicken up 10.5% and shrimp up 18.8%. Brokers expect CPF's third-quarter profit to grow from a year earlier on rebounding pork and chicken prices and strong chicken exports, supporting the stock.

    This shows real demand for CPF's products and improving earnings, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Rising feed costs from El Niño El Niño is also expected to push up feed costs, which will start affecting CPF from late 2027. Higher costs for soybean and other feed ingredients would squeeze margins, a real counterweight to the near-term positives.

    This is the main risk that could offset the positive drivers and gives a fair, balanced picture.

▲3▼1

CPF beats profit forecasts, plans Vietnam IPO, but China drags

  • Q2 profit beats expectations CPF's second-quarter core profit of 4.57 billion baht beat market forecasts by 13-20%, helped by strong exports and Vietnam. This reassures investors that the company is more profitable than feared, supporting the share price.

    This is the key new financial result that directly answers why the stock is moving.

  • Vietnam IPO plan and strong Vietnam growth CPF is preparing to list its Vietnam unit (CP Vietnam) on the stock exchange, selling about 10% while keeping control. Vietnam's pig and chicken businesses are growing strongly, and the IPO could unlock value, potentially lifting CPF's share price.

    This is a new, concrete catalyst that could re-rate the stock.

  • China pig business remains a drag CPF's China joint venture (CTI) lost about 2 billion baht in Q2 due to weak pig prices and oversupply. Management says it may take 1-2 years to recover, weighing on overall profit and limiting upside for the stock.

    This is the main counterweight that explains why the stock isn't rising more.

  • Weaker baht and export strength Thailand's exports surged 20.8% in June, with processed chicken highlighted as a winner. A weaker baht makes CPF's exports cheaper and boosts overseas earnings, while recovering meat prices and cost easing are expected to lift second-half profit.

    This macro tailwind supports CPF's export-driven revenue and margin recovery.