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Smothong vs Crude Palm Oil: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Smothong Group Public Company Limited (SMO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

September 2026
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

Latest
▲4

SMO expands capacity and eyes Q4 profit as palm oil prices stay high

  • New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

    This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

  • Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

    This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

  • Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

    This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

  • Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

    This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

  • DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

    This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.