Smothong vs Tyson Foods: why the prices moved differently

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  New palm kernel crushing plant to add 1.5bn baht revenue SMO is building a palm kernel crushing plant (300 tonnes/day) at its Phanom branch, set to start in Q2 2027 and add 1.5 billion baht in yearly revenue. It makes high-margin CPKO for export to oleochemical makers, supporting future profit growth.

  This is a major new investment that directly adds future revenue and earnings power, a key reason the stock is moving.

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  Q2 revenue up 2.48% on higher palm oil prices and capacity jump Q2/2026 revenue rose 2.48% year-on-year to 3.52 billion baht, with net profit of 29.56 million baht. Average palm oil selling price jumped to 38.48 baht/kg from 33.75 baht, and total capacity rose 35.29% to 345 tonnes/hour after the Phanom plant started commercial runs.

  This shows the company's current financial health and the positive impact of higher prices and expansion, which drives investor confidence.

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  Q3 recovery expected, 130m baht new plant, bio-power expansion eyed SMO expects Q3/2026 to recover from Q2, helped by higher crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant (300 tonnes/day) and may compete for new power purchase agreements in 2027 to nearly double biomass and biogas capacity.

  This signals improving near-term performance and new growth avenues, which can lift the stock price.

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  Q4 profit turnaround targeted after H1 loss, but raw material shortage cuts output SMO aims to return to net profit in Q4/2026 after a 29.48 million baht H1 loss, driven by higher raw material volumes and high selling prices. However, El Nino delayed palm output, forcing production to about 70% of capacity. Also, the expiry of biodiesel price subsidies on Sept 24 creates uncertainty for pricing.

  This is the key counterweight: it explains the risk from raw material shortages and subsidy expiry, which could pressure the stock if not resolved.

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  DBS Vickers names SMO as beneficiary of biofuel tax cuts DBS Vickers Securities Thailand named SMO in a group of integrated palm oil producers set to benefit from the government's plan to cut excise taxes on biofuels. Lower taxes should boost biodiesel demand, helping SMO's sales and margins.

  This is a new regulatory catalyst that could increase demand for SMO's products, directly supporting the stock price.

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  Beef losses balloon as cattle shortage bites Tyson now expects a full-year beef loss of $500–650 million due to a historic cattle shortage. It cut fiscal 2026 operating income guidance to $1.85–2.05 billion and revenue growth to 1.5–2%. Beef is 39% of revenue, so this squeezes profit and the stock.

  This is the core new negative driver: a direct profit warning from the beef shortage.

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  Cheap beef imports add price pressure The Trump administration let 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings enter without tariffs for 90 days, aiming to push ground beef prices about 25% lower. That directly pressures Tyson's beef margins and makes its guidance cut worse.

  A new policy shock that compounds Tyson's beef margin problem.

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  Legal settlements and antitrust reforms add costs Tyson agreed to a $117 million pork price-fixing settlement and won court approval for a broiler antitrust settlement that imposes new compliance rules. It also settled an Oklahoma poultry-litter case for $44 million. These add costs and oversight, weighing on sentiment.

  New legal resolutions create near-term costs and regulatory friction.

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  Analysts turn bearish as estimates fall Zacks named Tyson its Bear of the Day and added it to the Strong Sell list after earnings estimates were cut 13.5%. Goldman kept a Buy but lowered its price target to $67 from $77. Falling estimates and bearish calls can push the stock down.

  Shows the market's reaction: analysts slashing numbers and ratings.

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  Tyson closes three beef plants and cuts 3,200 jobs Tyson is closing beef plants in Illinois and Utah and selling its Pasco, Washington facility, cutting 3,200 jobs. This shrinks its beef processing footprint by about a third, a direct response to cattle herds at 75-year lows, and signals the beef losses are structural, not temporary.

  This is the concrete restructuring action that shows how deep the cattle shortage is hurting Tyson's beef business.

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  Trump opens beef import quotas for 90 days The White House is letting 300,000 metric tons of ground beef enter without tariffs for 90 days, to be sold 25% below market prices. That adds cheap foreign supply and pressures Tyson's domestic beef prices and volumes, making its beef losses worse.

  This policy directly undercuts Tyson's beef pricing and adds competitive supply while it is already losing money in beef.

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  Tyson cuts fiscal 2026 profit forecast for the second time Tyson lowered its fiscal 2026 operating income outlook to $1.85–$2.05 billion and widened its beef loss projection to $625–$775 million, citing severe cattle shortages and volatile prices. The stock fell about 7% as investors saw the beef problem worsening, not stabilizing.

  The guidance cut is the clearest signal that Tyson's profits are shrinking and the beef crisis is deepening.

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  DOJ expands beef price probe to major retailers The Justice Department widened its beef price investigation to eight large grocers including Walmart and Costco, after already probing Tyson and the other big meatpackers. This raises legal and regulatory risk for Tyson, which could mean fines or forced changes to how it prices beef.

  The expanding antitrust probe adds a regulatory overhang that could hurt Tyson's stock and limit its pricing power.

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  Beef losses deepen on cattle shortage Tyson now expects a beef operating loss of $500–650 million for fiscal 2026, wider than prior guidance, due to a 75-year-low U.S. cattle herd. Beef volumes fell 15.9% last quarter. This directly cuts profit and pushes the stock down.

  This is the core reason Tyson's profit outlook worsened and is the main negative force on the stock.

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  Chicken and prepared foods drive profit beat Tyson's Q3 net income jumped to $182 million from $61 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.99. Chicken and prepared foods segments were strong, and the company raised its prepared foods outlook. This shows the rest of the business is healthy and supports the stock.

  It provides the positive counterweight to the beef losses and explains why the stock isn't falling further.

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  Mexico border reopening won't fully fix beef shortage The U.S. will resume cattle imports from Mexico on August 24, but Tyson's CEO says it won't close the supply gap this year and could take up to a year to help. This limits the benefit of the reopening, keeping beef margins under pressure.

  It clarifies that a potential positive (imports resuming) is not a quick fix, so it doesn't offset the beef losses.

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  New tariffs on Canadian goods may boost domestic demand The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, making imported meat more expensive. This could shift demand to Tyson's domestic beef, pork, and chicken, supporting sales and prices. The stock jumped 6.4% on this news.

  It is a new trade policy that directly benefits Tyson's competitive position and was a major reason for the recent stock jump.

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