← Soybean Oil Futures overview

Soybean Oil Futures vs Crude Palm Oil: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Soybean Oil Futures (SOYOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Demand strength and policy support offset by ample global supply

  • Record crush and falling stocks A record June soybean crush and falling soy oil stocks signaled strong demand, supporting soybean oil futures prices.

    Highlights a key bullish demand factor that drove prices up.

  • Biofuel policy and India buying US biofuel policy support and India's increased buying after an import tax cut boosted demand for soybean oil, lifting futures.

    Shows policy and trade drivers that supported prices.

  • Ample global supply and crude slump Good US crop conditions, large South American and Canadian crops, and a crude oil slump hurt biodiesel economics, capping soybean oil gains.

    Identifies major bearish supply and energy factors that limited price increases.

  • Speculative volatility Speculative positioning amplified volatility, as traders reacted to shifting demand and supply news, causing sharp price swings.

    Explains how market sentiment added to price fluctuations.

August 2026
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Biofuel Policy and India Demand Lift Soy Oil; Bigger Crops Weigh

  • US biofuel policy boost The Trump administration granted 1.76 billion small-refinery biofuel waivers, the most since 2017, but promised to add the lost volumes back into 2026-2027 requirements. That keeps future demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock alive, and prices jumped over 2% on the news.

    This is the single biggest new force pushing soy oil prices up this period.

  • India buys more, then cuts import tax India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with soybean oil imports up 32% to a seven-month high. In late September India cut the effective import duty on crude soybean oil from 16.5% to 11%, which should keep its festival-season buying strong and support global soy oil prices.

    India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, so its demand directly lifts soy oil prices.

  • Vegetable oil prices at multi-year highs The UN food price index hit a three-and-a-half-year high in July, with vegetable oils up 2% to their highest since June 2022. Higher crude oil prices from Middle East tensions and Black Sea grain disruptions pushed palm and soy oil prices up together.

    It shows the broad global vegetable oil market is rising, which pulls soy oil along.

  • Large US and South American crops Favorable US weather and early crop progress pointed to a big soybean harvest, with StoneX projecting 4.47 billion bushels. Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly, and Canada's canola stocks rose 19%. More supply of oilseeds means more soy oil, which weighs on prices.

    It is the main counterweight keeping soy oil prices from rising even more.

Latest
▲3▼1

Biofuel Policy and India Demand Lift Soy Oil; Bigger Crops Weigh

  • US biofuel policy boost The Trump administration granted 1.76 billion small-refinery biofuel waivers, the most since 2017, but promised to add the lost volumes back into 2026-2027 requirements. That keeps future demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock alive, and prices jumped over 2% on the news.

    This is the single biggest new force pushing soy oil prices up this period.

  • India buys more, then cuts import tax India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with soybean oil imports up 32% to a seven-month high. In late September India cut the effective import duty on crude soybean oil from 16.5% to 11%, which should keep its festival-season buying strong and support global soy oil prices.

    India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, so its demand directly lifts soy oil prices.

  • Vegetable oil prices at multi-year highs The UN food price index hit a three-and-a-half-year high in July, with vegetable oils up 2% to their highest since June 2022. Higher crude oil prices from Middle East tensions and Black Sea grain disruptions pushed palm and soy oil prices up together.

    It shows the broad global vegetable oil market is rising, which pulls soy oil along.

  • Large US and South American crops Favorable US weather and early crop progress pointed to a big soybean harvest, with StoneX projecting 4.47 billion bushels. Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly, and Canada's canola stocks rose 19%. More supply of oilseeds means more soy oil, which weighs on prices.

    It is the main counterweight keeping soy oil prices from rising even more.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soy oil swings on crush, exports, weather, crude

  • June crush beats expectations, soy oil stocks drop NOPA reported a record-large June soybean crush of 214.34 million bushels, well above trade estimates. Soy oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below expectations and down 13.5% from May. Tighter oil supplies support higher soy oil prices.

    This is the clearest new supply-side force tightening soy oil availability and lifting prices.

  • Strong soybean export demand lifts the whole complex USDA reported private soybean sales to China and unknown buyers, and forward 2026/27 bookings hit 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year. Rabobank cut Brazil's crop estimate. Strong bean demand pulls soy oil up with it.

    Export demand is a major new demand-side driver pulling soy oil higher alongside soybeans.

  • Weather and crude oil slump trigger sharp selloff Soybeans and soy oil tumbled as US crop conditions stayed mostly good and crude oil plunged over $7, making soy oil-based biodiesel less competitive. Speculative funds had built a large bullish position, amplifying the drop.

    This is the main new counterweight, showing weather and energy markets can quickly reverse soy oil gains.

  • China to auction imported soybeans, adding supply China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on Friday. This could ease Chinese demand for fresh US soybeans and soy oil, weighing on prices.

    A new potential demand headwind from China, the top soybean buyer, that could pressure soy oil.

▲2▼2

Soy oil swings on crush, exports, weather, crude

  • June crush beats expectations, soy oil stocks drop NOPA reported a record-large June soybean crush of 214.34 million bushels, well above trade estimates. Soy oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below expectations and down 13.5% from May. Tighter oil supplies support higher soy oil prices.

    This is the clearest new supply-side force tightening soy oil availability and lifting prices.

  • Strong soybean export demand lifts the whole complex USDA reported private soybean sales to China and unknown buyers, and forward 2026/27 bookings hit 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year. Rabobank cut Brazil's crop estimate. Strong bean demand pulls soy oil up with it.

    Export demand is a major new demand-side driver pulling soy oil higher alongside soybeans.

  • Weather and crude oil slump trigger sharp selloff Soybeans and soy oil tumbled as US crop conditions stayed mostly good and crude oil plunged over $7, making soy oil-based biodiesel less competitive. Speculative funds had built a large bullish position, amplifying the drop.

    This is the main new counterweight, showing weather and energy markets can quickly reverse soy oil gains.

  • China to auction imported soybeans, adding supply China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on Friday. This could ease Chinese demand for fresh US soybeans and soy oil, weighing on prices.

    A new potential demand headwind from China, the top soybean buyer, that could pressure soy oil.

Crude Palm Oil (PALMOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Palm oil climbs on India demand, Thai biofuel, El Niño supply threat

  • India festival buying and import tax cut India's festival buying and a cut in its crude palm oil import tax from 10% to 5% boosted demand from the world's largest buyer, supporting prices.

    This demand boost from India was a key bullish force during the period.

  • Thailand biofuel policies support demand Thailand's B20 subsidies and biodiesel/bio-jet promotion kept domestic demand firm, with farm-gate prices strong for 25 straight weeks.

    Thai biofuel policies added steady demand support for palm oil.

  • El Niño and wildfires threaten supply A 95% probability super El Niño and Indonesian wildfires damaging over 200,000 hectares threatened Southeast Asian output, tightening supply.

    Supply threats from El Niño and fires pushed prices higher.

  • Delayed harvests and future capacity expansions El Niño delayed harvests, raising processor costs for PHAT and SMO, while PCE and PHAT mill capacity expansions will add future supply and could cap price gains.

    These factors acted as counterweights that limited price increases.

Latest
▲3

Palm oil supported by biofuel demand, tight supply, India tax cut

  • India cuts palm oil import tax, boosting demand India cut its import duty on crude palm oil from 10% to 5%, making it cheaper to buy ahead of festivals. India buys most of its cooking oil from abroad, so this directly lifts demand for palm oil and supports higher prices.

    This is a fresh, concrete demand boost from the world's biggest palm oil buyer.

  • Indonesian wildfires threaten palm supply Wildfires in Indonesia, the largest palm oil producer, have damaged over 200,000 hectares and are disrupting harvesting. Smoke and dry weather may hurt fruit yields, tightening global supply and pushing crude palm oil prices up.

    A major supply threat in the top producer is a key force behind higher palm oil prices.

  • Biofuel policy keeps palm oil demand strong Thailand's government is promoting palm oil as an energy crop for biodiesel and future bio jet fuel, creating steady domestic demand. This has kept farm-gate palm prices strong for 25 straight weeks, supporting crude palm oil prices.

    Government biofuel support is a persistent demand driver keeping palm oil prices elevated.

  • El Nino cuts output now, but expansion adds future supply El Nino delayed palm harvests, cutting raw material supply and raising costs for processors like PHAT and SMO. At the same time, PCE and PHAT are expanding mill capacity, which will add supply later and could cap price gains.

    It shows both the current supply tightness lifting prices and the counterweight of future capacity growth.

▲4

Palm oil climbs on festival demand, biofuel policy, and El Niño supply fears

  • India's festival buying spree lifts palm oil demand India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with palm oil jumping 50% to 733,000 tonnes as refiners stock up for the August-November festival season. This strong demand from the world's biggest buyer helps draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, supporting prices.

    This is a major new demand event that directly tightens global palm oil inventories and pushes prices up.

  • Thailand's B20 subsidy and EV loan boost palm oil use Thailand's Finance Ministry will use a 200 billion baht loan to subsidize public vehicles switching to EVs and to support B20 fuel, which contains more palm oil. This policy increases domestic palm oil demand, helping farmers and supporting prices.

    A new government policy that directly raises palm oil consumption, adding to demand-side price support.

  • Super El Niño threat could cut Southeast Asian palm output The probability of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, which would bring drought to Southeast Asian palm oil regions and lower production. Reduced supply would tighten the market and push prices higher, as traders factor in a weather premium.

    A new supply-side risk that could significantly reduce palm oil output and drive prices up.

  • SMO expands capacity and sees strong Q3 on higher exports Thai palm oil producer SMO reported higher revenue and expects Q3 recovery from increased crude palm oil exports as exchange rates stabilize. It is also investing 130 million baht in a new palm kernel oil plant, signaling confidence in future demand and supporting market sentiment.

    New company-level signals of rising exports and capacity expansion reinforce the positive demand outlook for palm oil.