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Sermsang Power vs Electricity Generating: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Sermsang Power Corporation Public Company Limited (SSP.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3

SSP Q3 profit boosted by Japan solar, Yamaga sale, pipeline

  • Strong Q3 profit outlook SSP expects normalised profit of 120–140 million baht in Q3 2026, helped by Japan's solar high season and the Leo 2 project, signalling a clear earnings rebound.

    This is the main new positive driver for the quarter.

  • Yamaga solar sale gain A 300–500 million baht gain from selling the Yamaga solar project will boost Q3 results, providing a one-time cash boost and showing progress in portfolio management.

    This is a new, material event that lifts quarterly earnings.

  • H1 profit jump and pipeline H1 profit rose 44.8% to 325.1 million baht, backed by a ~300 MW development pipeline and two waste-to-energy plants starting late 2026, supporting future growth.

    This confirms strong momentum and a visible growth pipeline.

  • Policy upside vs execution risk Thailand's PDP2026 and solar subsidy schemes could lift SSP's EPC business, but community solar projects are capped at 10 MW each, so many bids must succeed amid uncertain policy execution.

    This captures the key opportunity and the main risk that could limit upside.

September 2026
▲3

SSP completes Yamaga sale, eyes Thai solar bids and Bago wind

  • Yamaga solar sale completed SSP completed the 1 billion baht sale of its Yamaga solar project, booking a 300–500 million baht gain in Q3. The deal cuts debt and provides funds for expansion.

    This is a major new event that directly boosts earnings and strengthens the balance sheet.

  • Positioned for Thailand's PDP 2026 and community solar SSP is positioned to bid in Thailand's PDP 2026 (50,900 MW) and a 1,500 MW community solar programme. It targets 1,000 MW by 2032 and aims to double assets in 3–4 years.

    This shows new growth opportunities that could significantly expand SSP's project pipeline.

  • Bago wind farm under construction SSP is building the 150 MW Bago wind farm, scheduled for commercial operation in Q4 2027. This adds a new renewable energy source to its portfolio.

    This is a new project that diversifies SSP's generation mix and supports long-term growth.

  • Analyst Buy rating with policy risks Yuanta rates SSP Buy with a 14.10 baht target, citing growth and further Japanese asset sales (~2 billion baht). Risks: community solar projects are capped at 10 MW each, so developers must win many to move earnings, and much of the upside depends on uncertain bid outcomes and policy execution.

    This captures both the positive analyst view and the key risks that could limit upside.

Latest
▲4

SSP eyes huge Thai solar expansion and Bago wind farm as profit set to jump

  • SSP targets doubling assets in 3-4 years, pushes new PDP and Direct PPA SSP aims to double its asset size in 3-4 years, with over 340 MW operating and 800 MW in hand. It sees the draft PDP 2026's 50,000 MW as a major opportunity and may raise its 1,000 MW target. This growth ambition supports the stock price.

    This is a new strategic target that directly signals future growth and expansion.

  • Yuanta names SSP a top pick for 1,500 MW community solar Yuanta expects the 1,500 MW community solar programme to open for bids this year and names SSP as a top pick. Each project is capped at 10 MW, so developers must win several to move earnings. This new opportunity could add steady revenue.

    This is a new regulatory programme that opens a fresh growth avenue for SSP.

  • SSP prepares to bid for 1,500 MW community solar, expects strong H2 profit SSP is preparing to bid for the 1,500 MW community solar project and expects a strong second half, helped by the ~1 billion baht Yamaga sale and new waste-to-energy plants. A weaker baht also supports revenue. This confirms near-term earnings momentum.

    This provides concrete confirmation of SSP's participation and improved financial outlook.

  • SSP advances 150 MW Bago wind farm, targets Q4 2027 COD SSP is accelerating construction of the 150 MW Bago wind farm in the Philippines, an ~8 billion baht investment and its largest plant, with commercial operation targeted for Q4 2027. This adds long-term capacity and revenue growth.

    This is a major project milestone that underpins future earnings growth.

▲4

SSP cashes in on Yamaga sale and eyes Thailand's huge new power plan

  • Yamaga sale completed, 1 billion baht cash in SSP closed the sale of its 34.5 MW Yamaga solar farm in Japan, receiving 1,001.30 million baht. The deal adds cash, cuts debt, and will book a special gain of 300–500 million baht in Q3 2026, boosting reported profit and giving SSP money to fund new projects.

    This is the period's biggest concrete event, directly lifting earnings and funding capacity.

  • SSP ready to bid in PDP 2026, targeting 1,000 MW by 2032 Thailand's draft PDP 2026 plans 50,900 MW of new capacity, mostly solar and wind. SSP says it is ready to bid, building on its existing 420 MW pipeline and 170.5 MW of earlier FiT wins. Winning more projects would grow revenue for years and supports its 1,000 MW goal.

    The new national power plan is the main long-term demand driver for SSP's growth.

  • Yuanta keeps Buy, raises target to 14.10 baht Yuanta maintained its Buy rating and lifted SSP's target price to 14.10 baht, citing PDP 2026 growth, higher 2027 earnings, and a stronger balance sheet after Yamaga. It also noted plans to sell three more Japanese projects for about 2 billion baht, which would fund further expansion.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a higher target directly supports investor confidence and the share price.

  • Government backs rooftop solar with 50 billion baht fund Thailand's prime minister announced a 50 billion baht fund from mid-October to help households install rooftop solar, alongside a clean-energy push. This policy support could expand the solar market and benefit SSP's project pipeline and engineering business over time.

    New government money for solar adds a policy tailwind that can lift future demand for SSP's projects.

August 2026
▲4

SSP's profit rebound and new projects drive growth outlook

  • Strong Q3 profit expected on seasonal solar and asset sale SSP expects Q3 normalised profit of 120–140 million baht, up sharply from last year, helped by Japan solar high season and a full quarter from the Leo 2 project. A potential 400–500 million baht gain from selling the Yamaga solar project could further boost earnings.

    This directly signals a near-term earnings rebound that supports the share price.

  • First-half profit jumps 44.8% with 300 MW pipeline SSP reported H1 net profit of 325.1 million baht, up 44.8% year-on-year, on higher electricity sales. The company has about 300 MW of solar and wind projects under development that should more than double output by 2028, supporting long-term growth.

    Confirms strong financial performance and a clear growth path, key for investor confidence.

  • Waste-to-energy plants to start commercial operation in Q4 2026 Two community waste-to-energy plants (19.8 MW total) are 85% complete and set to begin commercial operation in late 2026. They will generate steady revenue around the clock and earn waste disposal fees, marking SSP's first move into this segment.

    New revenue stream with higher capacity factor than solar/wind, boosting future earnings.

  • New power plan and solar subsidy support growth Thailand's draft PDP2026 targets over 20,000 MW of new capacity, mostly renewables, and a million-rooftop solar subsidy could boost SSP's EPC business. SSP is also eyeing community solar and expansion into the Philippines and Taiwan.

    Policy tailwinds open new project opportunities and support long-term capacity goals.

▲4

SSP's profit rebound and new projects drive growth outlook

  • Strong Q3 profit expected on seasonal solar and asset sale SSP expects Q3 normalised profit of 120–140 million baht, up sharply from last year, helped by Japan solar high season and a full quarter from the Leo 2 project. A potential 400–500 million baht gain from selling the Yamaga solar project could further boost earnings.

    This directly signals a near-term earnings rebound that supports the share price.

  • First-half profit jumps 44.8% with 300 MW pipeline SSP reported H1 net profit of 325.1 million baht, up 44.8% year-on-year, on higher electricity sales. The company has about 300 MW of solar and wind projects under development that should more than double output by 2028, supporting long-term growth.

    Confirms strong financial performance and a clear growth path, key for investor confidence.

  • Waste-to-energy plants to start commercial operation in Q4 2026 Two community waste-to-energy plants (19.8 MW total) are 85% complete and set to begin commercial operation in late 2026. They will generate steady revenue around the clock and earn waste disposal fees, marking SSP's first move into this segment.

    New revenue stream with higher capacity factor than solar/wind, boosting future earnings.

  • New power plan and solar subsidy support growth Thailand's draft PDP2026 targets over 20,000 MW of new capacity, mostly renewables, and a million-rooftop solar subsidy could boost SSP's EPC business. SSP is also eyeing community solar and expansion into the Philippines and Taiwan.

    Policy tailwinds open new project opportunities and support long-term capacity goals.

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (EGCO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

EGCO's profit collapsed but US deals and asset sales offer new growth

  • Profit collapse and forecast cuts EGCO's core profit fell 95% due to tax and currency hits, leading analysts to slash 2026 profit forecasts by 30–40%, with Yuanta cutting its estimate to 3.337 billion baht.

    This explains the major negative force on the stock during the quarter.

  • US renewable and gas acquisitions EGCO acquired a 49% stake in US Pinnacle IV renewables (339 MW) and completed the 45.05% Astoria Energy II gas plant purchase, adding 250–330 million baht and ~400 million baht annually, respectively.

    These new investments provide future earnings growth and diversification.

  • Asset sales and spending plans EGCO sold BPU and KLU stakes for a 1–1.4 billion baht Q3 gain, and plans ~30 billion baht H2 spending, 2–3 M&A deals, and a ~3 billion baht Ban Pong gain.

    These actions boost near-term cash flow and signal growth ambitions.

  • Broker upgrades Brokers upgraded EGCO to Buy with target prices of 124–187 baht, reflecting confidence in the company's turnaround and growth pipeline.

    Upgrades can positively influence investor sentiment and demand for the stock.

August 2026
▲3▼1

EGCO profit collapse offset by US renewables deal and H2 spending plans

  • Quarterly core profit collapse EGCO's core profit fell 95% in the quarter due to tax and currency hits, prompting analysts to cut 2026 forecasts by 30–40% and expect weak Q2 net profit.

    This is the main negative force that pressured the stock during the period.

  • US renewables acquisition EGCO closed a 49% stake in US Pinnacle IV renewables (339 MW), lifting renewable capacity to 1,785 MW and adding 250–330 million baht in annual profit.

    This is a concrete positive event that expands EGCO's renewable footprint and earnings.

  • H2 spending and M&A plans EGCO plans ~30 billion baht of H2 spending, 2–3 M&A deals, and expects a ~3 billion baht gain from Ban Pong, signaling growth and cash generation.

    These plans provide a positive outlook and potential catalysts for the stock.

  • Long-term growth drivers Data center demand shifting to the EEC, the renewables-friendly draft PDP2026, a top-three DJ BIC sustainability ranking, and gas technology leadership support EGCO's long-term growth.

    These structural factors underpin future demand and position EGCO favorably.

Latest
▲3▼1

EGCO buys US renewables, but weak Q2 and profit cuts weigh

  • Q2 profit slump and big forecast cuts Asia Plus, KGI, Tisco and Krungsri all slashed 2026 profit forecasts by 30-40% and expect Q2 net profit to fall 40-71% year-on-year on FX losses, maintenance and weak Yunlin and Paju output. This near-term earnings weakness keeps pressure on the shares.

    It explains the main drag on EGCO's price this period.

  • US Pinnacle IV renewables deal closes EGCO completed the purchase of a 49% stake in the 339 MW Pinnacle IV wind and solar portfolio in the US, adding immediate cash flow and lifting its renewable capacity to 1,785 MW. Brokers see 250-330 million baht extra profit a year and a 5 baht target-price boost.

    It is the biggest new positive event for EGCO this period.

  • PDP2026 plan opens growth pipeline The draft PDP2026 favours renewables, storage and flexible gas, and analysts expect approval by October 2026 with auctions from mid-2027. EGCO's existing plant sites and plans to bid for new domestic projects and direct PPAs give it a long-term growth path.

    It shows the policy-driven growth story that supports EGCO's future earnings.

  • Sustainability ranking and gas technology edge EGCO ranked top three globally in the DJ BIC sustainability index for emerging-market electric utilities, and at Gastech 2026 it showcased hydrogen blending, ammonia co-firing and carbon capture. This supports its ESG profile and long-term licence to operate.

    It highlights a non-financial strength that can attract ESG-focused investors.

September 2026
▲3▼1

EGCO closes US gas deal, sells stake, wins broker upgrades

  • Astoria Energy II acquisition completed EGCO closed its 45.05% purchase of New York's 615 MW Astoria Energy II gas plant, adding roughly 400 million baht in annual US profit from 2027 and expanding its overseas footprint.

    This is the period's biggest new event, directly supporting future earnings and the stock's positive re-rating.

  • BPU and KLU stake sale completed EGCO finished selling its 49% stake in BPU and KLU, booking a 1–1.4 billion baht special profit in Q3, which boosts near-term earnings and supports the dividend outlook.

    This completed asset rotation provides a concrete near-term earnings boost and was not previously reported as done.

  • Broker upgrades and buy calls KGI upgraded EGCO to Buy with a 6.50 baht dividend forecast, and five more brokers issued buy calls with targets of 124–187 baht, citing US profit, data centre upside, and margin relief from a stronger baht and lower oil prices.

    Analyst upgrades and target prices directly influence investor sentiment and demand for the stock.

  • Yuanta cuts 2026 profit forecast Yuanta lowered its 2026 profit forecast to 3.337 billion baht, citing weaker contributions from Yunlin wind and Paju ES, and noted that data centre profits remain years away, providing a counterweight to the positive news.

    This is the main negative development in the period, showing that not all analysts share the optimistic view.

▲3

Brokers turn bullish on EGCO as US gas deal and data centre bets build

  • Brokers raise EGCO targets on Astoria Energy II deal CGSI, Tisco, Krungsri, Finansia and Yuanta all published buy or add calls this week, with target prices from 124 to 187 baht. They expect the 45% US gas plant stake to add about 400 million baht profit a year from 2027, lifting earnings forecasts and drawing income investors.

    This is the main new force pushing EGCO shares up this period.

  • Data centre and PPA renewal upside priced in Finansia says a possible 300MW data centre in Rayong could add about 3 baht per share, and renewing roughly 1GW of expiring power contracts could add about 10 baht. Google's planned 1 billion dollar Thai data centre investment also supports long-term electricity demand.

    New analyst detail shows fresh growth options beyond the US deal.

  • Weaker dollar debt and lower oil costs help margins The baht at about 33.45 per dollar is stronger than July's 34.0, cutting the cost of EGCO's dollar loans, which are 50-60% of total debt. Falling crude oil also points to lower gas costs for power plants, easing pressure on earnings.

    Explains a new, quieter support for EGCO's finances and profits.

  • Q3 profit rebound expected, but 2026 forecast cut Yuanta sees Q3/2026 profit rising on Lao hydropower seasonality, US gas plants and the QPL plant returning to normal, and expects a 3.25 baht second-half dividend. But it cut its 2026 forecast to 3.337 billion baht on weaker Yunlin wind and Paju ES contributions.

    Gives the fair counterweight: near-term recovery but a trimmed 2026 number.

▲4

EGCO locks in US gas growth and dividend upgrade as data center rules tighten

  • EGCO closes US Astoria Energy II acquisition EGCO signed a deal to buy 45.05% of the 615 MW Astoria Energy II gas plant in New York City, with a long-term contract with NYPA. This expands its US growth base and supports future earnings, helping lift the shares.

    This is a major new investment that directly supports EGCO's growth strategy and future profits.

  • KGI upgrades EGCO to Buy on 6.50 baht dividend KGI raised its rating to Buy and target price to 145 baht, expecting a 6.50 baht dividend for 2026. Higher dividend expectations and a stronger outlook can attract income investors and support the share price.

    This is a new analyst upgrade that directly affects investor expectations and the stock's appeal.

  • Tighter data center rules favor EGCO's clean power push Thailand suspended 166 data center projects and is drafting stricter rules that push operators to buy clean power and move to industrial estates. EGCO is seen as a beneficiary, though profits from data centers are still years away.

    This is a new regulatory development that could open long-term demand for EGCO's power, but with limited near-term impact.

  • Ban Pong-Khlong Luang stake sale completed EGCO closed the sale of a 49% stake in BPU and KLU to J-POWER for about 2.8 billion baht, expecting a special profit of 1-1.4 billion baht in Q3 2026. This boosts near-term earnings and funds new investments.

    This is a new completed transaction that directly adds to Q3 profit and supports the growth strategy.

▲2▼1

EGCO's H2 growth bets offset weak Q2 profit

  • Q2 core profit collapses on tax hit EGCO's second-quarter core profit fell 95% from the prior quarter to just 45 million baht, far below analyst estimates, because of higher-than-expected tax expenses. First-half core profit was only a quarter of the full-year forecast, so the market may lower profit expectations and pressure the shares near term.

    This is the main negative force on the stock and explains why profit expectations are being cut.

  • 30 billion baht H2 spending and M&A push EGCO plans to spend about 30 billion baht in the second half on gas plants, renewables and asset rotation, and is negotiating 2-3 M&A deals. It also expects a roughly 3 billion baht gain from selling its Ban Pong stake in Q3. This supports future growth and near-term earnings.

    This is the clearest new positive catalyst for growth and cash flow.

  • Data center demand shifts to EEC Bangkok's plan to pause new data center permits is pushing operators toward the Eastern Economic Corridor, where EGCO has land and power assets. Analysts say EGCO and peers will benefit long term as data center power demand grows, and EGCO is in talks for a 200-400 MW data center deal.

    This is a new demand driver that could add long-term power sales for EGCO.