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Thaifoods vs Soybean Meal Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (TFG.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

TFG Q3: Profit Beat, Dividend Surprise, Retail Growth, But Pork Prices Dip

  • Q2 profit beat and dividend surprise Q2 core profit beat forecasts by 8–9%, and the interim dividend was more than double expectations. Analysts kept Buy ratings and raised targets, boosting investor confidence.

    This is a key new positive event that directly lifted sentiment and price.

  • Second-half recovery drivers Higher meat prices, a weaker baht that helps exports, and falling feed costs are expected to support a second-half recovery. Management sees high pork and chicken prices through mid-2027.

    These factors underpin future earnings growth and were highlighted as new positives.

  • Retail expansion and Vietnam growth Retail expansion targets 875 Thai Foods Fresh Market branches by end-2026, with retail sales up 29% year-on-year. Vietnam growth also drives revenue, supporting the bullish outlook.

    This shows concrete growth in a key segment, a new development for the period.

  • Pork price dip and El Niño risk Thai pork prices fell 5.7% on heavy rain and weak pre-festival demand. A super El Niño could raise feed costs from late 2027, pressuring future margins.

    This is a real counterweight that could offset positives and affect profitability.

September 2026
▲3▼1

TFG upgraded on retail growth and high meat prices, but pork dip and El Niño risk loom

  • Broker upgrades and sector overweight KGI raised the food sector to overweight, and Tisco and ASL both upgraded TFG to Buy with higher targets (12.70 and 12.50 baht), citing faster retail growth and recovering meat prices. More analysts recommending the stock tends to pull money in and lift the share price.

    This is the main new event that directly changes how the market values TFG.

  • High meat prices and tight supply through mid-2027 TFG's CEO said pork and chicken prices should stay high through mid-2027 because demand is recovering while small farms cut output. Floods also hit smaller farms, tightening supply. Higher selling prices with locked-in feed costs mean better profits for TFG.

    This explains the fundamental earnings driver behind the upgrades and positive outlook.

  • Retail expansion and cooked-meat capacity growth TFG is speeding up Thaifoods Fresh Market openings, targeting 875 branches by end-2026, and expanding cooked-meat plants because orders are near full capacity. This adds new revenue streams and supports profit growth into 2027.

    It shows a concrete growth plan that analysts cite as a key reason for their positive calls.

  • Pork price dip and El Niño feed cost risk Thai pork prices fell 5.7% to 66.50 baht per kilogram on heavy rain and weak demand before the vegetarian festival. Also, a super El Niño could raise feed costs from late 2027. These are real risks that could pressure TFG's margins.

    It provides the necessary counterweight to the bullish narrative, keeping the picture fair.

Latest
▲3▼1

TFG upgraded on retail growth and high meat prices, but pork dip and El Niño risk loom

  • Broker upgrades and sector overweight KGI raised the food sector to overweight, and Tisco and ASL both upgraded TFG to Buy with higher targets (12.70 and 12.50 baht), citing faster retail growth and recovering meat prices. More analysts recommending the stock tends to pull money in and lift the share price.

    This is the main new event that directly changes how the market values TFG.

  • High meat prices and tight supply through mid-2027 TFG's CEO said pork and chicken prices should stay high through mid-2027 because demand is recovering while small farms cut output. Floods also hit smaller farms, tightening supply. Higher selling prices with locked-in feed costs mean better profits for TFG.

    This explains the fundamental earnings driver behind the upgrades and positive outlook.

  • Retail expansion and cooked-meat capacity growth TFG is speeding up Thaifoods Fresh Market openings, targeting 875 branches by end-2026, and expanding cooked-meat plants because orders are near full capacity. This adds new revenue streams and supports profit growth into 2027.

    It shows a concrete growth plan that analysts cite as a key reason for their positive calls.

  • Pork price dip and El Niño feed cost risk Thai pork prices fell 5.7% to 66.50 baht per kilogram on heavy rain and weak demand before the vegetarian festival. Also, a super El Niño could raise feed costs from late 2027. These are real risks that could pressure TFG's margins.

    It provides the necessary counterweight to the bullish narrative, keeping the picture fair.

August 2026
▲3▼1

TFG's profit beat and dividend shine, but El Niño feed cost risk looms

  • Q2 profit beat and big dividend TFG's Q2 2026 core profit of 1.5 billion baht beat analyst and market forecasts by 8-9%, and the interim dividend of 0.225 baht per share was more than double what the market expected. Analysts kept a buy rating and raised the target price to 14.20 baht, saying earnings have bottomed out.

    This is the single biggest new event this period, directly lifting investor confidence and the stock's valuation.

  • Second-half recovery on higher meat prices and weaker baht TFG expects a second-half rebound as live hog prices rose to 74 baht and chicken prices to 43-44 baht, up 15-20% from the Q2 trough. A weaker baht (33-34 per dollar) also boosts chicken exports, and feed costs are falling with the corn harvest and imports.

    This explains the fundamental earnings driver behind the stock's recovery story, which is new guidance from the company.

  • Retail expansion and Vietnam growth drive future revenue TFG is rapidly opening Thai Foods Fresh Market stores, targeting 875 branches by end-2026 and 1,050 later, with retail already 48% of sales and growing 29% year-on-year. It is also accelerating growth in Vietnam and maintains a 10-15% revenue growth target for 2026.

    This is the main long-term growth engine analysts cite for the stock, and the branch numbers are new details from this period's reports.

  • El Niño could raise feed costs from late 2027 Krungsri warns that a very strong El Niño is likely from September 2026 to January 2027, which could push up feed costs for TFG and peers starting in Q4 2027. This is a future risk, not an immediate hit, but it could pressure margins later.

    This is the main counterweight to the positive story and a new warning that readers need to know about.

▲3▼1

TFG's profit beat and dividend shine, but El Niño feed cost risk looms

  • Q2 profit beat and big dividend TFG's Q2 2026 core profit of 1.5 billion baht beat analyst and market forecasts by 8-9%, and the interim dividend of 0.225 baht per share was more than double what the market expected. Analysts kept a buy rating and raised the target price to 14.20 baht, saying earnings have bottomed out.

    This is the single biggest new event this period, directly lifting investor confidence and the stock's valuation.

  • Second-half recovery on higher meat prices and weaker baht TFG expects a second-half rebound as live hog prices rose to 74 baht and chicken prices to 43-44 baht, up 15-20% from the Q2 trough. A weaker baht (33-34 per dollar) also boosts chicken exports, and feed costs are falling with the corn harvest and imports.

    This explains the fundamental earnings driver behind the stock's recovery story, which is new guidance from the company.

  • Retail expansion and Vietnam growth drive future revenue TFG is rapidly opening Thai Foods Fresh Market stores, targeting 875 branches by end-2026 and 1,050 later, with retail already 48% of sales and growing 29% year-on-year. It is also accelerating growth in Vietnam and maintains a 10-15% revenue growth target for 2026.

    This is the main long-term growth engine analysts cite for the stock, and the branch numbers are new details from this period's reports.

  • El Niño could raise feed costs from late 2027 Krungsri warns that a very strong El Niño is likely from September 2026 to January 2027, which could push up feed costs for TFG and peers starting in Q4 2027. This is a future risk, not an immediate hit, but it could pressure margins later.

    This is the main counterweight to the positive story and a new warning that readers need to know about.

Soybean Meal Futures (SOYMEAL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, China demand, and record crop outlook

  • Dry July weather and strong export demand Early in the quarter, dry July weather and strong export demand, including large Chinese purchases, lifted soymeal prices.

    This explains the early price support from weather and demand.

  • Late-July selloff on crude oil and speculative positions A late-July broad selloff, triggered by falling crude oil and heavy speculative long positions, pressured the soy complex.

    This identifies a key negative force during the quarter.

  • Record U.S. crop and weak export sales From August through early October, favorable Midwest weather and forecasts for a record U.S. soybean crop weighed on prices, as did weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply.

    This highlights the main bearish factors that kept prices rangebound.

  • Continued Chinese buying and slipping crop ratings Offsetting bearish factors, continued Chinese buying and slipping—though still adequate—crop condition ratings provided support, keeping soymeal prices rangebound.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented further declines.

August 2026
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

Latest
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.

▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.