Thai Union Feedmill PCL vs Darling Ingredients: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM.BK)

Q3 202631 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

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TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

August 202631 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Latest31 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Darling Ingredients Inc (DAR)

Q3 202624 Jun – 25 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Darling's biofuel boom meets a RIN-price warning

Q2 profit surge on fat, protein and fuel prices Darling's second-quarter profit jumped to $2.41 a share from 8 cents a year earlier, far above expectations. Fat and protein prices rallied, biofuel demand was strong, and fish meal supplies tightened. Higher prices for what Darling sells mean more profit, which pushes the stock up.
The earnings beat is the core new reason the stock moved and resets the profit baseline.
DGD fuel earnings explode, but one-time tariff boost Darling's diesel joint venture earned $2.23 per gallon versus 34 cents a year earlier, with EBITDA of $389 million. Tight renewable fuel credits support margins into 2027. About $50 million of that came from a one-time tariff refund, so the underlying run-rate is lower than it looks.
DGD is Darling's biggest profit engine and the swing factor in the quarter, including the caveat.
$1 billion buyback signals capital return ahead Darling raised its share buyback program to $1 billion and expects net debt below $3 billion by year-end, after which it may add dividends or more repurchases. Buying back stock shrinks the share count, lifting earnings per share and supporting the price.
New capital-return commitment is a fresh, price-relevant signal for investors.
RIN credit prices plunge on EPA delay and exemptions Ethanol RIN credits fell to $1.75, a four-month low, after the EPA extended a compliance deadline and moved to grant small-refinery exemptions that could free 1.2–1.8 billion credits. Weaker credits cut the value of renewable diesel and the feedstocks Darling supplies, a real drag on future profit.
This is the main counterweight and the newest regulatory risk to Darling's biofuel economics.

July 202624 Jun – 25 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Darling's biofuel boom meets a RIN-price warning

Q2 profit surge on fat, protein and fuel prices Darling's second-quarter profit jumped to $2.41 a share from 8 cents a year earlier, far above expectations. Fat and protein prices rallied, biofuel demand was strong, and fish meal supplies tightened. Higher prices for what Darling sells mean more profit, which pushes the stock up.
The earnings beat is the core new reason the stock moved and resets the profit baseline.
DGD fuel earnings explode, but one-time tariff boost Darling's diesel joint venture earned $2.23 per gallon versus 34 cents a year earlier, with EBITDA of $389 million. Tight renewable fuel credits support margins into 2027. About $50 million of that came from a one-time tariff refund, so the underlying run-rate is lower than it looks.
DGD is Darling's biggest profit engine and the swing factor in the quarter, including the caveat.
$1 billion buyback signals capital return ahead Darling raised its share buyback program to $1 billion and expects net debt below $3 billion by year-end, after which it may add dividends or more repurchases. Buying back stock shrinks the share count, lifting earnings per share and supporting the price.
New capital-return commitment is a fresh, price-relevant signal for investors.
RIN credit prices plunge on EPA delay and exemptions Ethanol RIN credits fell to $1.75, a four-month low, after the EPA extended a compliance deadline and moved to grant small-refinery exemptions that could free 1.2–1.8 billion credits. Weaker credits cut the value of renewable diesel and the feedstocks Darling supplies, a real drag on future profit.
This is the main counterweight and the newest regulatory risk to Darling's biofuel economics.

Latest24 Jun – 25 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Darling's biofuel boom meets a RIN-price warning

Q2 profit surge on fat, protein and fuel prices Darling's second-quarter profit jumped to $2.41 a share from 8 cents a year earlier, far above expectations. Fat and protein prices rallied, biofuel demand was strong, and fish meal supplies tightened. Higher prices for what Darling sells mean more profit, which pushes the stock up.
The earnings beat is the core new reason the stock moved and resets the profit baseline.
DGD fuel earnings explode, but one-time tariff boost Darling's diesel joint venture earned $2.23 per gallon versus 34 cents a year earlier, with EBITDA of $389 million. Tight renewable fuel credits support margins into 2027. About $50 million of that came from a one-time tariff refund, so the underlying run-rate is lower than it looks.
DGD is Darling's biggest profit engine and the swing factor in the quarter, including the caveat.
$1 billion buyback signals capital return ahead Darling raised its share buyback program to $1 billion and expects net debt below $3 billion by year-end, after which it may add dividends or more repurchases. Buying back stock shrinks the share count, lifting earnings per share and supporting the price.
New capital-return commitment is a fresh, price-relevant signal for investors.
RIN credit prices plunge on EPA delay and exemptions Ethanol RIN credits fell to $1.75, a four-month low, after the EPA extended a compliance deadline and moved to grant small-refinery exemptions that could free 1.2–1.8 billion credits. Weaker credits cut the value of renewable diesel and the feedstocks Darling supplies, a real drag on future profit.
This is the main counterweight and the newest regulatory risk to Darling's biofuel economics.