Thai Union Feedmill PCL vs Hershey: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM.BK)

Q3 202631 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

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TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

August 202631 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

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TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Latest31 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.
This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.
Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.
It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.
Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.
It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.
Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.
It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Hershey Co (HSY)

Q3 202617 Jun – 7 Oct 2026

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Hershey's Q3: Cocoa Relief, Salty Snacks Growth, But Demand and Rate Risks Loom

Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey's Q2 results beat expectations, with adjusted earnings per share up 57% and operating margin recovering to 23.1%. This showed the company's profitability improving after a period of pressure.
This is a key positive event that drove investor sentiment during the period.
Salty Snacks Surge and Cocoa Price Drop Salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, helped by the LesserEvil brand, reducing reliance on chocolate. Meanwhile, cocoa prices fell from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, easing cost pressures and supporting margins.
These are major positive developments that improved Hershey's business mix and cost outlook.
Dividend Increase After Five Flat Quarters Hershey raised its dividend to $1.452 per share, ending a stretch of five quarters without an increase. This signaled confidence in cash flow and rewarded income-focused shareholders.
The dividend hike is a new positive event that can attract income investors.
Demand Weakness and Rate Hike Pressure Softer North American confectionery demand and an 8% sales volume drop due to price elasticity raised concerns about growth durability. The Fed's rate-hike signal also pressured dividend stocks like Hershey.
These are key negative forces that weighed on the stock during the period.

September 20261 Aug – 7 Oct 2026

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Hershey's Q2 Beat and Dividend Hike Face Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks

Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey beat Q2 revenue and profit estimates, with adjusted EPS up 57% and operating margin expanding to 23.1% from 7.4%. This shows the company is recovering from last year's cocoa cost crisis, boosting investor confidence and supporting the stock price.
This is the core positive driver of the period, showing a sharp turnaround in profitability.
Volume Decline on Price Elasticity Despite the profit beat, sales volumes fell 8% as higher prices pushed some customers to buy less. This raises questions about whether the margin recovery can last if volumes keep shrinking, which could cap the stock's upside.
It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings, showing demand weakness.
Dividend Increase Signals Confidence Hershey raised its quarterly dividend to $1.452 per share after five flat quarters. This suggests management is confident in the recovery and rewards income-focused investors, which can attract buyers and support the stock price.
It is a new capital return event that signals management's confidence.
Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks Threaten 2027 Recovery Analysts warned that a Super El Niño could hurt West African cocoa crops, undermining Hershey's plan for cocoa deflation in 2027. Separately, sugar prices rallied 13% in six weeks, adding to input cost pressures. These risks could delay the margin recovery and weigh on the stock.
It highlights new external cost threats that could reverse the positive earnings trend.

Latest1 Aug – 7 Oct 2026

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Hershey's Q2 Beat and Dividend Hike Face Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks

Q2 Earnings Beat and Margin Recovery Hershey beat Q2 revenue and profit estimates, with adjusted EPS up 57% and operating margin expanding to 23.1% from 7.4%. This shows the company is recovering from last year's cocoa cost crisis, boosting investor confidence and supporting the stock price.
This is the core positive driver of the period, showing a sharp turnaround in profitability.
Volume Decline on Price Elasticity Despite the profit beat, sales volumes fell 8% as higher prices pushed some customers to buy less. This raises questions about whether the margin recovery can last if volumes keep shrinking, which could cap the stock's upside.
It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings, showing demand weakness.
Dividend Increase Signals Confidence Hershey raised its quarterly dividend to $1.452 per share after five flat quarters. This suggests management is confident in the recovery and rewards income-focused investors, which can attract buyers and support the stock price.
It is a new capital return event that signals management's confidence.
Cocoa and Sugar Cost Risks Threaten 2027 Recovery Analysts warned that a Super El Niño could hurt West African cocoa crops, undermining Hershey's plan for cocoa deflation in 2027. Separately, sugar prices rallied 13% in six weeks, adding to input cost pressures. These risks could delay the margin recovery and weigh on the stock.
It highlights new external cost threats that could reverse the positive earnings trend.

July 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

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Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

17 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

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Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.