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Thai Union Feedmill PCL vs Soybean Meal Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM.BK)

Q3 2026
▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

  • Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.

    This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.

  • Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.

    It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.

  • Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.

    It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.

  • Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.

    It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

August 2026
▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

  • Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.

    This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.

  • Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.

    It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.

  • Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.

    It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.

  • Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.

    It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Latest
▼2▲1

TFM's profit squeezed by record fishmeal costs and weak shrimp feed demand

  • Fishmeal cost surge crushes margins Fishmeal prices jumped 59% from a year ago, pushing TFM's gross margin down to 16% — below its own 17-19% target. This squeezes profit: Q3 2026 profit is expected to fall 46% from last year. Higher costs mean less money left from each sale, which weighs on the stock price.

    This is the single biggest force driving TFM's profit down and explains why the stock is under pressure.

  • Shrimp feed demand weakens amid competition Shrimp feed is 60-65% of TFM's sales, but it is struggling. Competitors are fighting harder for customers, and farmers are switching to cheaper soybean and poultry meal. This means lower sales volume and less pricing power for TFM's main product, dragging revenue and profit down.

    It explains the demand-side weakness behind TFM's falling sales and profit, not just the cost side.

  • Growth plans expand but targets cut TFM set a 10 billion baht revenue goal by 2030 and is building a plant in Ecuador, but it cut this year's growth target to 5-7% from 8-10% and lowered its margin goal. The long-term expansion is positive, but near-term expectations are being scaled back, which limits upside.

    It shows the tension between TFM's long-term growth ambitions and its reduced near-term outlook.

  • Halal certification opens new markets TFM received halal certification for 48 shrimp and fish feed products, opening doors to Middle Eastern and ASEAN markets like Malaysia and Bangladesh. This could bring new customers and diversify sales away from Thailand, supporting future revenue growth.

    It is a new demand driver that could offset some weakness in TFM's core shrimp feed business.

Soybean Meal Futures (SOYMEAL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, China demand, and record crop outlook

  • Dry July weather and strong export demand Early in the quarter, dry July weather and strong export demand, including large Chinese purchases, lifted soymeal prices.

    This explains the early price support from weather and demand.

  • Late-July selloff on crude oil and speculative positions A late-July broad selloff, triggered by falling crude oil and heavy speculative long positions, pressured the soy complex.

    This identifies a key negative force during the quarter.

  • Record U.S. crop and weak export sales From August through early October, favorable Midwest weather and forecasts for a record U.S. soybean crop weighed on prices, as did weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply.

    This highlights the main bearish factors that kept prices rangebound.

  • Continued Chinese buying and slipping crop ratings Offsetting bearish factors, continued Chinese buying and slipping—though still adequate—crop condition ratings provided support, keeping soymeal prices rangebound.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented further declines.

August 2026
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

Latest
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.

▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.