← TQM overview

TQM vs The Baldwin Insurance Group: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

TQM Corporation Public Company Limited (TQM.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3

TQM lifts dividend payout above 100%, profit up 8%

  • Dividend policy raised to over 100% payout TQM will now pay out more than all of its yearly profit as dividends. Analysts expect yields of 7.7% to 8.2% through 2028, backed by cash at its units. This makes the stock more attractive to income investors and helped push one broker's target price up 20% to 19.1 baht.

    This is the biggest new force behind the stock, directly raising expected shareholder payouts and the target price.

  • Q2 profit up 8% with better margins TQM's second-quarter profit rose 8% from a year earlier to 185 million baht. Renewal rates for auto insurance improved, health insurance grew sharply, and admin costs fell, lifting the profit margin. The company expects further recovery in the second half and high season in the fourth quarter.

    It shows the core business is getting healthier, which supports the stock's value.

  • Second share buyback completed TQM finished buying back 12.5 million of its own shares, about 2.1% of all shares, spending 177.7 million baht. Buying back shares reduces the number outstanding, which can lift earnings per share and supports the stock price.

    It is a completed capital return action that shrinks share count and supports the price.

  • Q2 profit missed estimates, margin slipped One broker noted TQM's Q2 profit was 7.8% below market expectations and gross margin fell to 45.1% from 46.8% a year earlier due to higher sales support costs. The broker still kept a buy rating and 20 baht target, expecting a second-half recovery.

    It is the main counterweight: profit missed forecasts and margins narrowed, even though the broker stayed positive.

September 2026
▲3

TQM lifts dividend payout above 100%, profit up 8%

  • Dividend policy raised to over 100% payout TQM will now pay out more than all of its yearly profit as dividends. Analysts expect yields of 7.7% to 8.2% through 2028, backed by cash at its units. This makes the stock more attractive to income investors and helped push one broker's target price up 20% to 19.1 baht.

    This is the biggest new force behind the stock, directly raising expected shareholder payouts and the target price.

  • Q2 profit up 8% with better margins TQM's second-quarter profit rose 8% from a year earlier to 185 million baht. Renewal rates for auto insurance improved, health insurance grew sharply, and admin costs fell, lifting the profit margin. The company expects further recovery in the second half and high season in the fourth quarter.

    It shows the core business is getting healthier, which supports the stock's value.

  • Second share buyback completed TQM finished buying back 12.5 million of its own shares, about 2.1% of all shares, spending 177.7 million baht. Buying back shares reduces the number outstanding, which can lift earnings per share and supports the stock price.

    It is a completed capital return action that shrinks share count and supports the price.

  • Q2 profit missed estimates, margin slipped One broker noted TQM's Q2 profit was 7.8% below market expectations and gross margin fell to 45.1% from 46.8% a year earlier due to higher sales support costs. The broker still kept a buy rating and 20 baht target, expecting a second-half recovery.

    It is the main counterweight: profit missed forecasts and margins narrowed, even though the broker stayed positive.

Latest
▲3

TQM lifts dividend payout above 100%, profit up 8%

  • Dividend policy raised to over 100% payout TQM will now pay out more than all of its yearly profit as dividends. Analysts expect yields of 7.7% to 8.2% through 2028, backed by cash at its units. This makes the stock more attractive to income investors and helped push one broker's target price up 20% to 19.1 baht.

    This is the biggest new force behind the stock, directly raising expected shareholder payouts and the target price.

  • Q2 profit up 8% with better margins TQM's second-quarter profit rose 8% from a year earlier to 185 million baht. Renewal rates for auto insurance improved, health insurance grew sharply, and admin costs fell, lifting the profit margin. The company expects further recovery in the second half and high season in the fourth quarter.

    It shows the core business is getting healthier, which supports the stock's value.

  • Second share buyback completed TQM finished buying back 12.5 million of its own shares, about 2.1% of all shares, spending 177.7 million baht. Buying back shares reduces the number outstanding, which can lift earnings per share and supports the stock price.

    It is a completed capital return action that shrinks share count and supports the price.

  • Q2 profit missed estimates, margin slipped One broker noted TQM's Q2 profit was 7.8% below market expectations and gross margin fell to 45.1% from 46.8% a year earlier due to higher sales support costs. The broker still kept a buy rating and 20 baht target, expecting a second-half recovery.

    It is the main counterweight: profit missed forecasts and margins narrowed, even though the broker stayed positive.

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)

Q3 2026
▲2

Baldwin to go private in $7.7B cash deal at $32.50 a share

  • Take-private at a big cash premium Sequence Holdings and Michael Dell's family office agreed to buy Baldwin for $7.7 billion, paying $32.50 a share in cash — about an 88% premium to the price before deal talks surfaced. That fixed cash price is why the stock jumped and now trades near $32, close to the offer.

    The take-private is the single event that now sets BWIN's price.

  • Buyers committed, no financing condition The buyers signed a definitive deal with no financing condition, and the board unanimously approved it. Eligible employees can roll part of their stock into the private company. That structure makes the $32.50 payout look more certain, supporting the shares near the offer price.

    Deal certainty is what keeps the stock pinned near the cash offer.

  • Little upside left; closing still needs approvals With shares around $31.89 versus the $32.50 cash offer, almost all the gain is already priced in. Shareholders must still vote and regulators must clear the deal, expected to close in early 2027, so any delay or rejection is the main risk now.

    It is the real counterweight: the easy money has been made and completion risk remains.

  • Solid profit growth, but weak organic sales and a net loss Baldwin entered the deal with revenue up 30% and adjusted EBITDA up 37%, yet organic revenue rose only 2% and it posted a $56 million GAAP net loss. The buyers are paying about 20 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, a full price that reflects these mixed results.

    It explains the operating backdrop behind the price the buyers agreed to pay.

August 2026
▲2

Baldwin to go private in $7.7B cash deal at $32.50 a share

  • Take-private at a big cash premium Sequence Holdings and Michael Dell's family office agreed to buy Baldwin for $7.7 billion, paying $32.50 a share in cash — about an 88% premium to the price before deal talks surfaced. That fixed cash price is why the stock jumped and now trades near $32, close to the offer.

    The take-private is the single event that now sets BWIN's price.

  • Buyers committed, no financing condition The buyers signed a definitive deal with no financing condition, and the board unanimously approved it. Eligible employees can roll part of their stock into the private company. That structure makes the $32.50 payout look more certain, supporting the shares near the offer price.

    Deal certainty is what keeps the stock pinned near the cash offer.

  • Little upside left; closing still needs approvals With shares around $31.89 versus the $32.50 cash offer, almost all the gain is already priced in. Shareholders must still vote and regulators must clear the deal, expected to close in early 2027, so any delay or rejection is the main risk now.

    It is the real counterweight: the easy money has been made and completion risk remains.

  • Solid profit growth, but weak organic sales and a net loss Baldwin entered the deal with revenue up 30% and adjusted EBITDA up 37%, yet organic revenue rose only 2% and it posted a $56 million GAAP net loss. The buyers are paying about 20 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, a full price that reflects these mixed results.

    It explains the operating backdrop behind the price the buyers agreed to pay.

Latest
▲2

Baldwin to go private in $7.7B cash deal at $32.50 a share

  • Take-private at a big cash premium Sequence Holdings and Michael Dell's family office agreed to buy Baldwin for $7.7 billion, paying $32.50 a share in cash — about an 88% premium to the price before deal talks surfaced. That fixed cash price is why the stock jumped and now trades near $32, close to the offer.

    The take-private is the single event that now sets BWIN's price.

  • Buyers committed, no financing condition The buyers signed a definitive deal with no financing condition, and the board unanimously approved it. Eligible employees can roll part of their stock into the private company. That structure makes the $32.50 payout look more certain, supporting the shares near the offer price.

    Deal certainty is what keeps the stock pinned near the cash offer.

  • Little upside left; closing still needs approvals With shares around $31.89 versus the $32.50 cash offer, almost all the gain is already priced in. Shareholders must still vote and regulators must clear the deal, expected to close in early 2027, so any delay or rejection is the main risk now.

    It is the real counterweight: the easy money has been made and completion risk remains.

  • Solid profit growth, but weak organic sales and a net loss Baldwin entered the deal with revenue up 30% and adjusted EBITDA up 37%, yet organic revenue rose only 2% and it posted a $56 million GAAP net loss. The buyers are paying about 20 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, a full price that reflects these mixed results.

    It explains the operating backdrop behind the price the buyers agreed to pay.