El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom
El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.
This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.
Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.
A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.
Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.
This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.
Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.
This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.