← Thai Vegetable Oil overview

Thai Vegetable Oil vs Soybean Meal Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited (TVO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

September 2026
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

Latest
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

Soybean Meal Futures (SOYMEAL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, China demand, and record crop outlook

  • Dry July weather and strong export demand Early in the quarter, dry July weather and strong export demand, including large Chinese purchases, lifted soymeal prices.

    This explains the early price support from weather and demand.

  • Late-July selloff on crude oil and speculative positions A late-July broad selloff, triggered by falling crude oil and heavy speculative long positions, pressured the soy complex.

    This identifies a key negative force during the quarter.

  • Record U.S. crop and weak export sales From August through early October, favorable Midwest weather and forecasts for a record U.S. soybean crop weighed on prices, as did weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply.

    This highlights the main bearish factors that kept prices rangebound.

  • Continued Chinese buying and slipping crop ratings Offsetting bearish factors, continued Chinese buying and slipping—though still adequate—crop condition ratings provided support, keeping soymeal prices rangebound.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented further declines.

August 2026
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

Latest
▼2▲1

Weather, Big Crops and Chinese Buying Keep Soymeal Choppy

  • Favorable weather and big crop forecasts weigh on prices Rain across Midwest growing states and forecasts for a large US soybean crop (53 bushels per acre, 4.47 billion bushels) point to ample supply. More soybeans mean more soymeal, which pushes prices down.

    This is the main supply-side force pushing soymeal lower during the period.

  • China's purchases of US soybeans support prices China bought 488,000 metric tons of US soybeans and later another 340,000 metric tons, signaling strong demand. When a big buyer steps in, it lifts soybean and soymeal prices.

    Chinese demand is a key positive force for soymeal prices.

  • Crop condition ratings slip but remain adequate US soybean condition ratings fell from 65% to 58% good-to-excellent over the period, with declines in key states. Worse crop health can trim supply and support prices, but ratings are still not disastrous.

    This shows a counterweight to the big-crop narrative, adding uncertainty to supply.

  • Weak soymeal export sales and rising South American supply US soymeal sales of 114,733 metric tons missed expectations, and Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly. More South American soybeans and soft US meal demand add pressure to soymeal prices.

    This highlights demand weakness and global supply competition weighing on soymeal.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.

▲2▼2

Soymeal swings on weather, export demand, then broad selloff

  • Dry July weather lifted soy complex Forecasts for a dry start to July in key U.S. growing areas raised concerns about the soybean crop, pushing soybean and soymeal futures higher. Less rain can shrink the crop, tightening supply and supporting soymeal prices.

    Weather is a major supply force that pushed soymeal up early in the period.

  • Strong export demand for soybeans and meal U.S. soybean export sales hit multi-week and marketing-year highs, with big purchases from China and unknown destinations. Soymeal sales also stayed within trade estimates. Strong demand for beans supports soymeal because meal is a key product made from crushing soybeans.

    Export demand is a core demand driver that supported soymeal prices.

  • Late-July broad selloff in soy complex Soybean and soymeal futures plunged as crude oil tumbled and speculative traders held a large net long position, triggering a wave of selling. A sharp drop in energy prices can reduce demand for soy-based biofuels, adding pressure to the whole soy complex.

    This was the period's biggest price-moving event, dragging soymeal sharply lower.

  • China to auction state soybean reserves China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans. If the auction supplies the market, it could reduce China's near-term demand for imported U.S. soybeans, softening demand for soymeal and weighing on prices.

    This new supply event could reduce demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.