← Thai Vegetable Oil overview

Thai Vegetable Oil vs Soybean Oil Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited (TVO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

September 2026
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

Latest
▲3▼1

El Niño and strong baht lift TVO, but Q4 cost rise and 2027 profit dip loom

  • El Niño drought boosts vegetable oil demand and prices Forecasters see a very strong El Niño into early 2027, cutting palm oil supply and lifting vegetable oil prices. Brokers upgraded TVO to Buy with a 36 baht target, naming it a top El Niño beneficiary. This supports demand and pricing for TVO's soybean oil.

    This is the main new force behind TVO's positive outlook and broker upgrades this period.

  • Strong baht cuts imported soybean costs The baht strengthened to about 32.98 per dollar on foreign fund inflows. Because TVO imports raw soybeans, a stronger baht lowers its costs and supports profit margins. Asia Plus lists TVO among companies that benefit from this currency move.

    A stronger baht directly lowers TVO's main input cost, a key profit driver.

  • Q3 profit expected up sharply, brokers keep Buy Tisco expects Q3/2026 normalized profit of 729 million baht, up 69% year on year, on higher soybean meal prices and bottled oil sales. It maintains Buy with a 33.75 baht target. Bualuang also sees a positive Q3 on stable costs and better prices.

    This is the latest earnings expectation and broker view that directly supports the stock price.

  • Q4 costs to rise and 2027 profit seen falling Management says soybean costs will rise in Q4/2026, and the El Niño benefit may only arrive in Q1/2027 because Malaysia's palm oil stocks are still high. Consensus expects 2027 profit to fall 13% year on year, so TVO's main attraction is its roughly 7-8% dividend yield.

    This is the main counterweight: near-term cost pressure and a weaker 2027 profit outlook.

Soybean Oil Futures (SOYOIL.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼1

Demand strength and policy support offset by ample global supply

  • Record crush and falling stocks A record June soybean crush and falling soy oil stocks signaled strong demand, supporting soybean oil futures prices.

    Highlights a key bullish demand factor that drove prices up.

  • Biofuel policy and India buying US biofuel policy support and India's increased buying after an import tax cut boosted demand for soybean oil, lifting futures.

    Shows policy and trade drivers that supported prices.

  • Ample global supply and crude slump Good US crop conditions, large South American and Canadian crops, and a crude oil slump hurt biodiesel economics, capping soybean oil gains.

    Identifies major bearish supply and energy factors that limited price increases.

  • Speculative volatility Speculative positioning amplified volatility, as traders reacted to shifting demand and supply news, causing sharp price swings.

    Explains how market sentiment added to price fluctuations.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Biofuel Policy and India Demand Lift Soy Oil; Bigger Crops Weigh

  • US biofuel policy boost The Trump administration granted 1.76 billion small-refinery biofuel waivers, the most since 2017, but promised to add the lost volumes back into 2026-2027 requirements. That keeps future demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock alive, and prices jumped over 2% on the news.

    This is the single biggest new force pushing soy oil prices up this period.

  • India buys more, then cuts import tax India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with soybean oil imports up 32% to a seven-month high. In late September India cut the effective import duty on crude soybean oil from 16.5% to 11%, which should keep its festival-season buying strong and support global soy oil prices.

    India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, so its demand directly lifts soy oil prices.

  • Vegetable oil prices at multi-year highs The UN food price index hit a three-and-a-half-year high in July, with vegetable oils up 2% to their highest since June 2022. Higher crude oil prices from Middle East tensions and Black Sea grain disruptions pushed palm and soy oil prices up together.

    It shows the broad global vegetable oil market is rising, which pulls soy oil along.

  • Large US and South American crops Favorable US weather and early crop progress pointed to a big soybean harvest, with StoneX projecting 4.47 billion bushels. Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly, and Canada's canola stocks rose 19%. More supply of oilseeds means more soy oil, which weighs on prices.

    It is the main counterweight keeping soy oil prices from rising even more.

Latest
▲3▼1

Biofuel Policy and India Demand Lift Soy Oil; Bigger Crops Weigh

  • US biofuel policy boost The Trump administration granted 1.76 billion small-refinery biofuel waivers, the most since 2017, but promised to add the lost volumes back into 2026-2027 requirements. That keeps future demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock alive, and prices jumped over 2% on the news.

    This is the single biggest new force pushing soy oil prices up this period.

  • India buys more, then cuts import tax India's July vegetable oil imports hit a 10-month high, with soybean oil imports up 32% to a seven-month high. In late September India cut the effective import duty on crude soybean oil from 16.5% to 11%, which should keep its festival-season buying strong and support global soy oil prices.

    India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, so its demand directly lifts soy oil prices.

  • Vegetable oil prices at multi-year highs The UN food price index hit a three-and-a-half-year high in July, with vegetable oils up 2% to their highest since June 2022. Higher crude oil prices from Middle East tensions and Black Sea grain disruptions pushed palm and soy oil prices up together.

    It shows the broad global vegetable oil market is rising, which pulls soy oil along.

  • Large US and South American crops Favorable US weather and early crop progress pointed to a big soybean harvest, with StoneX projecting 4.47 billion bushels. Brazil's crop estimates were raised repeatedly, and Canada's canola stocks rose 19%. More supply of oilseeds means more soy oil, which weighs on prices.

    It is the main counterweight keeping soy oil prices from rising even more.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Soy oil swings on crush, exports, weather, crude

  • June crush beats expectations, soy oil stocks drop NOPA reported a record-large June soybean crush of 214.34 million bushels, well above trade estimates. Soy oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below expectations and down 13.5% from May. Tighter oil supplies support higher soy oil prices.

    This is the clearest new supply-side force tightening soy oil availability and lifting prices.

  • Strong soybean export demand lifts the whole complex USDA reported private soybean sales to China and unknown buyers, and forward 2026/27 bookings hit 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year. Rabobank cut Brazil's crop estimate. Strong bean demand pulls soy oil up with it.

    Export demand is a major new demand-side driver pulling soy oil higher alongside soybeans.

  • Weather and crude oil slump trigger sharp selloff Soybeans and soy oil tumbled as US crop conditions stayed mostly good and crude oil plunged over $7, making soy oil-based biodiesel less competitive. Speculative funds had built a large bullish position, amplifying the drop.

    This is the main new counterweight, showing weather and energy markets can quickly reverse soy oil gains.

  • China to auction imported soybeans, adding supply China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on Friday. This could ease Chinese demand for fresh US soybeans and soy oil, weighing on prices.

    A new potential demand headwind from China, the top soybean buyer, that could pressure soy oil.

▲2▼2

Soy oil swings on crush, exports, weather, crude

  • June crush beats expectations, soy oil stocks drop NOPA reported a record-large June soybean crush of 214.34 million bushels, well above trade estimates. Soy oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below expectations and down 13.5% from May. Tighter oil supplies support higher soy oil prices.

    This is the clearest new supply-side force tightening soy oil availability and lifting prices.

  • Strong soybean export demand lifts the whole complex USDA reported private soybean sales to China and unknown buyers, and forward 2026/27 bookings hit 1.537 million metric tons, nearly triple last year. Rabobank cut Brazil's crop estimate. Strong bean demand pulls soy oil up with it.

    Export demand is a major new demand-side driver pulling soy oil higher alongside soybeans.

  • Weather and crude oil slump trigger sharp selloff Soybeans and soy oil tumbled as US crop conditions stayed mostly good and crude oil plunged over $7, making soy oil-based biodiesel less competitive. Speculative funds had built a large bullish position, amplifying the drop.

    This is the main new counterweight, showing weather and energy markets can quickly reverse soy oil gains.

  • China to auction imported soybeans, adding supply China's state-owned Sinograin will auction 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on Friday. This could ease Chinese demand for fresh US soybeans and soy oil, weighing on prices.

    A new potential demand headwind from China, the top soybean buyer, that could pressure soy oil.