Waste Connections vs Veralto: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Waste Connections Inc (WCN)

Q3 202624 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

August 202624 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

Latest24 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

Veralto Corporation (VLTO)

Q3 202621 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

Veralto beats guidance, expands water treatment with two acquisitions

Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance Veralto reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share, beating estimates by 11%, with sales up 7.6% to $1.47 billion. Management raised full-year core sales growth to 4-4.5% and adjusted EPS to $4.35-$4.43, implying 12-14% growth. This directly lifts the stock because it shows the business is growing faster than expected and management is confident about the rest of the year.
This is the core earnings event that drove analyst upgrades and fair value increases.
Water Quality margin expands to 26.5% Veralto's Water Quality segment, its largest business, lifted adjusted operating margin to 26.5% from 25.9%, with profit up 12.6% to $241 million. Sales rose 10.1% to $908 million, helped by 5.7% core growth and 2.9% pricing. Profit growing faster than sales means the company is becoming more efficient, which supports a higher stock price if sustained.
Margin expansion is a key driver of earnings growth and was highlighted as a positive signal for future profitability.
Acquisitions expand water treatment portfolio Veralto acquired Alfaa UV, an India-based ultraviolet water treatment company, and agreed to buy Cleanwater1 for $465 million. These deals add new products and geographic reach to the Water Quality business. Acquisitions can boost future sales and earnings, which is why the stock often rises when they are announced, though they also use cash and carry integration risk.
These deals show Veralto is actively growing its core water business through acquisitions, a key part of its strategy.
Analyst targets rise but ratings stay cautious After Q2 results, Barclays raised its price target to $117 and Stifel to $114, lifting Veralto's fair value estimate to about $112.76. However, several firms including RBC, UBS, Citi, and Baird kept neutral ratings, saying the stock already reflects recent good performance. This means analysts see limited upside from here, which can cap price gains even as the business performs well.
This shows the counterweight: strong results are already priced in, limiting further upside.

August 202621 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

Veralto beats guidance, expands water treatment with two acquisitions

Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance Veralto reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share, beating estimates by 11%, with sales up 7.6% to $1.47 billion. Management raised full-year core sales growth to 4-4.5% and adjusted EPS to $4.35-$4.43, implying 12-14% growth. This directly lifts the stock because it shows the business is growing faster than expected and management is confident about the rest of the year.
This is the core earnings event that drove analyst upgrades and fair value increases.
Water Quality margin expands to 26.5% Veralto's Water Quality segment, its largest business, lifted adjusted operating margin to 26.5% from 25.9%, with profit up 12.6% to $241 million. Sales rose 10.1% to $908 million, helped by 5.7% core growth and 2.9% pricing. Profit growing faster than sales means the company is becoming more efficient, which supports a higher stock price if sustained.
Margin expansion is a key driver of earnings growth and was highlighted as a positive signal for future profitability.
Acquisitions expand water treatment portfolio Veralto acquired Alfaa UV, an India-based ultraviolet water treatment company, and agreed to buy Cleanwater1 for $465 million. These deals add new products and geographic reach to the Water Quality business. Acquisitions can boost future sales and earnings, which is why the stock often rises when they are announced, though they also use cash and carry integration risk.
These deals show Veralto is actively growing its core water business through acquisitions, a key part of its strategy.
Analyst targets rise but ratings stay cautious After Q2 results, Barclays raised its price target to $117 and Stifel to $114, lifting Veralto's fair value estimate to about $112.76. However, several firms including RBC, UBS, Citi, and Baird kept neutral ratings, saying the stock already reflects recent good performance. This means analysts see limited upside from here, which can cap price gains even as the business performs well.
This shows the counterweight: strong results are already priced in, limiting further upside.

Latest21 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

Veralto beats guidance, expands water treatment with two acquisitions

Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance Veralto reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share, beating estimates by 11%, with sales up 7.6% to $1.47 billion. Management raised full-year core sales growth to 4-4.5% and adjusted EPS to $4.35-$4.43, implying 12-14% growth. This directly lifts the stock because it shows the business is growing faster than expected and management is confident about the rest of the year.
This is the core earnings event that drove analyst upgrades and fair value increases.
Water Quality margin expands to 26.5% Veralto's Water Quality segment, its largest business, lifted adjusted operating margin to 26.5% from 25.9%, with profit up 12.6% to $241 million. Sales rose 10.1% to $908 million, helped by 5.7% core growth and 2.9% pricing. Profit growing faster than sales means the company is becoming more efficient, which supports a higher stock price if sustained.
Margin expansion is a key driver of earnings growth and was highlighted as a positive signal for future profitability.
Acquisitions expand water treatment portfolio Veralto acquired Alfaa UV, an India-based ultraviolet water treatment company, and agreed to buy Cleanwater1 for $465 million. These deals add new products and geographic reach to the Water Quality business. Acquisitions can boost future sales and earnings, which is why the stock often rises when they are announced, though they also use cash and carry integration risk.
These deals show Veralto is actively growing its core water business through acquisitions, a key part of its strategy.
Analyst targets rise but ratings stay cautious After Q2 results, Barclays raised its price target to $117 and Stifel to $114, lifting Veralto's fair value estimate to about $112.76. However, several firms including RBC, UBS, Citi, and Baird kept neutral ratings, saying the stock already reflects recent good performance. This means analysts see limited upside from here, which can cap price gains even as the business performs well.
This shows the counterweight: strong results are already priced in, limiting further upside.