Waste Connections vs Waste Management: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Waste Connections Inc (WCN)

Q3 202624 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

August 202624 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

Latest24 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

▲3

WCN beats, raises outlook, buys back stock, but shares stay cheap

Q2 beat and raised 2026 outlook Waste Connections beat second-quarter estimates with revenue up 6.4% to $2.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, then raised full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance. A 5.6% core price increase drove solid waste growth, showing the core business still has pricing power.
This is the period's main fundamental event and the reason the outlook improved.
AI pricing tool turns into real savings The AI commercial pricing tool is already delivering about $20 million a year in EBITDA benefit, and management sees up to $100 million from seven AI projects by 2029. Routing and customer-service tools are still being tested, so the payoff builds over years, not overnight.
It explains a concrete, measurable profit driver behind the improved outlook.
Buyback renewed and debt refinanced WCN renewed its buyback for up to 12.6 million shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, and moved to refinance Canadian dollar borrowings with new notes due 2033 and 2036. Both return cash to shareholders and keep financing costs manageable, supporting the stock.
These capital actions are new this period and directly support per-share value.
Cheap-looking stock, but costs and valuation weigh The stock trades near $150, about 25% below a $202 fair-value estimate, and is technically oversold ahead of Q3 earnings. But fuel costs, lower commodity prices, Chiquita Canyon outflows and a rich 35.8x earnings multiple versus peers are real counterweights.
It gives the fair counterweight: the pullback may be opportunity, but cost and valuation risks are real.

Waste Management Inc (WM)

Q3 202614 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.
This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.
Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.
It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.
High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.
It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.
Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.
It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.

August 202614 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.
This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.
Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.
It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.
High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.
It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.
Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.
It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.

Latest14 Jul – 1 Oct 2026

▲2▼2

WM's steady waste demand and green growth offset debt and labor risks

Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise WM reported second-quarter revenue up 4% to $6.68 billion and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, beating expectations. It raised full-year revenue guidance and returned over $1 billion to shareholders. This shows the core business is strong and supports a higher stock price.
This is the period's biggest positive event, directly lifting investor confidence in WM's earnings power.
Steady waste demand and pricing power Demand for waste collection and disposal remains reliable, and WM raised core prices 5.7%. Its recycling and renewable energy businesses grew adjusted EBITDA 32.5% year over year. This steady, recurring revenue makes earnings more predictable and supports the stock.
It explains the fundamental demand and pricing strength that underpins WM's valuation.
High debt limits financial flexibility WM carries $23.36 billion in total debt against only $557 million in cash, and its current ratio of 0.91 is below the industry average. This limits how much the company can invest or return to shareholders, and could weigh on the stock if rates rise or profits slow.
It is the main counterweight to the positive earnings story and a real risk to WM's price.
Southern California labor contract expires Contracts for nearly 4,000 sanitation workers, including some at WM, expired without a deal. The union warns of possible strikes across Southern California. A labor disruption could raise costs and interrupt service, which would hurt WM's stock.
It is a new, unresolved risk that could disrupt operations and investor sentiment.