← Workday overview

Workday vs Automatic Data Processing: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Workday Inc (WDAY)

Q3 2026
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Workday swings on buyout talk, AI revenue, and guidance cut

  • Sector rotation and budget shifts Workday swung as investors rotated into beaten-down software, but enterprise budgets shifted from software to hardware, potentially slowing subscription growth. This tug-of-war kept the stock volatile.

    Explains the main market forces causing price swings during the quarter.

  • Silver Lake buyout talks Reuters-reported buyout talks with Silver Lake, valuing a deal at $240–$250 per share, sparked a rally. However, talks are unconfirmed and founders control ~70% of votes, so a collapse could erase gains.

    A major potential catalyst that drove a rally but remains uncertain.

  • AI products delivering real revenue AI products are generating over $100 million in new annual contract value, 25%+ of new deals, and ~$600 million AI annual recurring revenue, up over 200%. This shows AI is contributing meaningfully.

    Highlights a key positive fundamental driver for the stock.

  • Guidance cut and internal risks Management cut fiscal 2028 subscription growth guidance to ~11% from 13–14%, warning AI is more substitutive than incremental. Layoffs, leadership changes, a major investor exit, and AI-native competitor Rillet add risk.

    A significant negative factor that pressured the stock and raised concerns.

August 2026
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Workday jumps on buyout talks, but growth guidance cut

  • Silver Lake buyout talks Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday, with analysts valuing a deal at $240–$250 per share. Talks are unconfirmed and founders control about 70% of votes, so a collapse could erase gains.

    This was the biggest new event driving the stock price in August.

  • AI products delivering real revenue Workday's AI products are generating real money: over $100 million in new annual contract value, more than 25% of new deals, and AI annual recurring revenue near $600 million, up over 200%. State government wins and new partnerships also helped.

    Shows the company's AI investments are paying off, supporting the stock.

  • Growth guidance cut Management guided fiscal 2028 subscription growth down to about 11% from 13–14%, noting AI adoption is more substitutive than incremental. This means AI may replace some existing revenue rather than add new revenue.

    A lower growth outlook is a key negative that weighs on the stock.

  • Layoffs, leadership changes, competition Workday is cutting 2.5% of staff amid leadership changes, a major investor exited, and AI-native startup Rillet poses a long-term competitive threat. Software sector weakness and AI doubts also linger.

    These factors add uncertainty and competitive pressure, countering the positive news.

Latest
▲2▼2

Workday's AI products gain traction, but growth guidance and job cuts weigh

  • AI products drive real revenue and customer wins Workday's AI tools brought in over $100 million in new annual contract value, more than a quarter of all new deals, and over half of new wins included AI. This shows AI is boosting demand, not just hype, which supports the stock.

    This is the core positive force: AI is translating into actual sales and customer adoption.

  • Management warns of slower growth ahead Workday's CFO guided fiscal 2028 subscription revenue growth to nearly 11%, down from the current 13-14% range, and noted AI adoption is more substitutive than incremental. This signals future sales will grow more slowly, which pressures the stock.

    This is the main negative counterweight: slower growth guidance directly affects investor expectations.

  • Job cuts and leadership changes raise execution concerns Workday is cutting 2.5% of its workforce, mainly in Product and Technology, and a major investor exited after the CEO departure and co-founder's return broke its investment thesis. These moves suggest internal disruption and cost pressure.

    Shows real internal challenges that could hurt execution and investor confidence.

  • New products and partnerships expand reach Workday launched AI-driven Total Benefits, an AI research unit, and new partnerships (BDO Canada, Teem, Cash App) and entered the UAE. These expand its customer base and product capabilities, supporting long-term demand.

    Highlights ongoing growth initiatives that could offset slower core growth.

▲2▼2

Workday's AI Surge Meets Growth Slowdown and New Rivals

  • AI drives record new contract value Workday's AI products generated over $100 million in new annual contract value, more than 25% of all new ACV, with AI annual recurring revenue near $600 million, up over 200% year-over-year. This shows AI is becoming a real revenue driver, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new positive force behind Workday's recent earnings-driven jump.

  • Early fiscal 2028 growth target signals slowdown Workday gave an early fiscal 2028 subscription growth target of about 11%, down from the current 13-14% pace. That suggests the company's growth is slowing, which weighs on the stock even as current results beat expectations.

    This is the main new counterweight that explains why the stock didn't hold its post-earnings gain.

  • AI-native startup Rillet challenges incumbents Rillet, a private AI-native ERP startup, is pitching real-time continuous accounting to replace batch-processed systems from Workday, Oracle, and SAP. Its backer says rivals would need 4-5 years to catch up, highlighting a long-term competitive threat to Workday's core market.

    This is a new competitive threat that could pressure Workday's long-term pricing and market share.

  • State government wins show public sector traction Workday reported large state government go-lives, including Georgia's 70,000-employee rollout, as governments replace legacy HR and finance systems. This deepens its public sector presence and supports future subscription revenue, though it reinforces an existing narrative rather than creating a new one.

    This is a new demand signal that supports the bull case, though it is more incremental than the AI and growth news.

▲2▼1

Silver Lake buyout talks send Workday soaring

  • Silver Lake in talks to acquire Workday Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday, sending shares up about 18-25% — their best day since 2016. A buyout would give shareholders a cash payout at a premium to the beaten-down price, so the stock jumped toward the rumored deal value.

    This is the single new event that explains the period's huge move and is the core answer to why WDAY is moving.

  • Analysts peg takeover value at $240-$250 per share Analysts at Needham, BNP Paribas and KeyBanc estimate a deal could be worth roughly $224-$250 per share, citing Workday's 98% renewal rates, sticky seat-based subscriptions and room to lift margins. That gives investors a concrete number to anchor the stock to while talks continue.

    It quantifies the buyout premium, which is what is pulling the share price up now.

  • Deal is only talks, and founders control the vote No deal is guaranteed — Silver Lake and Workday are still only in talks and may need outside investors to fund a huge purchase. Co-founders Aneel Bhusri and David Duffield hold about 70% of voting power, so RBC says a management-led buyout is more likely. If talks collapse, the stock could give back much of the gain.

    It is the real counterweight: the upside depends on a deal that may not happen, which is essential for a fair picture.

  • Software weakness and AI doubts linger Before the buyout report, Workday was down about 15% this year and 40% from its 2024 peak, hurt by worries that AI is making traditional software less competitive. On August 6, Datadog's weak earnings dragged Workday and other software names lower, showing the sector's underlying slump.

    It explains the weak backdrop that made Workday a takeover target and remains a risk if the deal fades.

July 2026
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Workday swings on software rotation, downgrade, and budget shift

  • Enterprise budgets shift from software to hardware IBM's weak results showed companies are spending on costly memory and servers instead of software, pushing Workday down 5% on July 14. If this trend continues, Workday's subscription revenue growth could slow, which would weigh on the stock.

    This is a new fundamental demand risk that directly threatens Workday's core business.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades Workday On July 21, Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday along with Adobe and Intuit, citing concerns about the software sector. A downgrade from a major bank can shake investor confidence and push the stock down, as it did that day.

    This is a new analyst action that directly impacted WDAY's price and sentiment.

  • Investors rotate into beaten-down software stocks As chipmakers sold off on July 27 and 28, investors moved money into software. Workday jumped over 8% and then over 7% on those days. This rotation can lift Workday's price even if its own business hasn't changed.

    This is a new positive price driver from sector rotation that explains recent gains.

▼2▲1

Workday swings on software rotation, downgrade, and budget shift

  • Enterprise budgets shift from software to hardware IBM's weak results showed companies are spending on costly memory and servers instead of software, pushing Workday down 5% on July 14. If this trend continues, Workday's subscription revenue growth could slow, which would weigh on the stock.

    This is a new fundamental demand risk that directly threatens Workday's core business.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades Workday On July 21, Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday along with Adobe and Intuit, citing concerns about the software sector. A downgrade from a major bank can shake investor confidence and push the stock down, as it did that day.

    This is a new analyst action that directly impacted WDAY's price and sentiment.

  • Investors rotate into beaten-down software stocks As chipmakers sold off on July 27 and 28, investors moved money into software. Workday jumped over 8% and then over 7% on those days. This rotation can lift Workday's price even if its own business hasn't changed.

    This is a new positive price driver from sector rotation that explains recent gains.

Q2 2026
▲2▼2

Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

June 2026
▲2▼2

Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

▲2▼2

Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

ADP's strong Q4 offset by slowing client hiring and AI competition

  • Strong Q4 results and guidance ADP reported 7% revenue growth, 17% adjusted EPS growth, and guided fiscal 2027 to 5–6% revenue and 9–11% EPS growth, with bookings up 6% to $2.2 billion and operating cash flow of $5.44 billion.

    This is the core positive fundamental news that drove investor sentiment during the quarter.

  • AI platform and dividend increase ADP's AI-powered Lyric HCM platform and ADP Assist tools improved efficiency, while the company raised its dividend for the 51st consecutive year, signaling confidence in cash generation.

    Highlights technological progress and shareholder returns that supported the stock.

  • Slowing client headcount and margin pressure Pays-per-control rose just 1%, indicating slower client hiring, while PEO pass-through revenue diluted margins and threatened the 70–90 basis point expansion target.

    These are key operational headwinds that pressured revenue growth and profitability.

  • AI competition and weak jobs report AI-powered payroll competitors eroded pricing power, especially on large deals, and a weak June jobs report raised broader economic concerns, though private hiring rebounded with 90,000 jobs added in September.

    Competitive and macroeconomic risks that weighed on the stock despite strong results.

August 2026
▲3▼1

ADP's AI-driven bookings and hiring rebound offset slowing client headcount

  • AI products drive bookings and client adoption ADP's AI tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen are winning clients: Employer Services bookings rose 6% to $2.2 billion, Lyric live clients jumped 94%, and the AI Zone reached 48% of service staff. This boosts revenue per client and supports profit margins, lifting the stock.

    This is the core growth engine behind ADP's recent stock gains and future revenue outlook.

  • Hiring rebound supports payroll and data services ADP's own jobs data showed private hiring accelerating for a second straight week, with 16,250 jobs added weekly in late August. More hiring means more payroll clients and higher demand for ADP's employment data, which lifts investor sentiment.

    ADP's business is directly tied to employment levels, so a hiring rebound is a key positive force.

  • Strong cash flow supports dividends and buybacks ADP generated $5.44 billion in operating cash flow and raised its dividend for the 51st straight year to $1.70 per quarter. This steady cash return rewards shareholders and signals financial health, making the stock more attractive.

    Dividend growth and buybacks are a major reason investors hold ADP and support its valuation.

  • Slowing client headcount growth pressures revenue ADP reported pays-per-control growth slowed to about 1% in fiscal 2026 and guided to 0-1% for fiscal 2027, signaling weaker client retention and a cooler labor market. This limits how much ADP earns per client, a real drag on future growth.

    This is the main counterweight to the bullish AI and hiring story, directly affecting ADP's revenue per client.

Latest
▲3▼1

ADP's AI-driven bookings and hiring rebound offset slowing client headcount

  • AI products drive bookings and client adoption ADP's AI tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen are winning clients: Employer Services bookings rose 6% to $2.2 billion, Lyric live clients jumped 94%, and the AI Zone reached 48% of service staff. This boosts revenue per client and supports profit margins, lifting the stock.

    This is the core growth engine behind ADP's recent stock gains and future revenue outlook.

  • Hiring rebound supports payroll and data services ADP's own jobs data showed private hiring accelerating for a second straight week, with 16,250 jobs added weekly in late August. More hiring means more payroll clients and higher demand for ADP's employment data, which lifts investor sentiment.

    ADP's business is directly tied to employment levels, so a hiring rebound is a key positive force.

  • Strong cash flow supports dividends and buybacks ADP generated $5.44 billion in operating cash flow and raised its dividend for the 51st straight year to $1.70 per quarter. This steady cash return rewards shareholders and signals financial health, making the stock more attractive.

    Dividend growth and buybacks are a major reason investors hold ADP and support its valuation.

  • Slowing client headcount growth pressures revenue ADP reported pays-per-control growth slowed to about 1% in fiscal 2026 and guided to 0-1% for fiscal 2027, signaling weaker client retention and a cooler labor market. This limits how much ADP earns per client, a real drag on future growth.

    This is the main counterweight to the bullish AI and hiring story, directly affecting ADP's revenue per client.

September 2026
▲2▼2

ADP's own jobs data rebounds, but PEO margins and AI rivals loom

  • Q4 earnings beat and AI product adoption ADP beat Q4 2026 earnings and guidance, and more clients are adopting its cloud and AI HR tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen. That supports higher revenue per client and wider profit margins, which is why the stock has rebounded over the past three months.

    This is the core fundamental driver behind the recent share-price recovery and margin story.

  • September private-sector hiring jumps to 90,000 ADP's own National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, well above the 70,000 expected and the first up-month since May. Strong hiring makes ADP's payroll and data services more valuable, lifting investor sentiment.

    This is the freshest and most direct positive data point for ADP's franchise this period.

  • PEO pass-through revenue and margin pressure ADP's PEO business is growing through zero-margin pass-through revenue, which can dilute overall profitability. Management's 70–90 basis point annual margin expansion target could be at risk if PEO margins stay under pressure, a real counterweight to the bullish story.

    It is the main risk flagged in the reporting that could cap ADP's upside.

  • AI-driven payroll competitors threaten pricing power New AI-powered payroll competitors are chipping away at ADP's pricing power, especially on large complex deals where bookings have slowed. If ADP can't keep raising prices, revenue growth and margins could suffer, making the stock less attractive.

    This competitive threat is a key bear case that could offset the positive product and hiring news.

▲2▼2

ADP's own jobs data rebounds, but PEO margins and AI rivals loom

  • Q4 earnings beat and AI product adoption ADP beat Q4 2026 earnings and guidance, and more clients are adopting its cloud and AI HR tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen. That supports higher revenue per client and wider profit margins, which is why the stock has rebounded over the past three months.

    This is the core fundamental driver behind the recent share-price recovery and margin story.

  • September private-sector hiring jumps to 90,000 ADP's own National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, well above the 70,000 expected and the first up-month since May. Strong hiring makes ADP's payroll and data services more valuable, lifting investor sentiment.

    This is the freshest and most direct positive data point for ADP's franchise this period.

  • PEO pass-through revenue and margin pressure ADP's PEO business is growing through zero-margin pass-through revenue, which can dilute overall profitability. Management's 70–90 basis point annual margin expansion target could be at risk if PEO margins stay under pressure, a real counterweight to the bullish story.

    It is the main risk flagged in the reporting that could cap ADP's upside.

  • AI-driven payroll competitors threaten pricing power New AI-powered payroll competitors are chipping away at ADP's pricing power, especially on large complex deals where bookings have slowed. If ADP can't keep raising prices, revenue growth and margins could suffer, making the stock less attractive.

    This competitive threat is a key bear case that could offset the positive product and hiring news.

July 2026
▲3▼1

ADP beats on strong Q4, guides 5-6% growth as AI drives productivity

  • Strong Q4 and full-year results beat expectations ADP reported 7% revenue growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth in Q4, with full-year revenue of $21.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.12. Retention stayed high at 92.1%, and new business bookings grew 6% to $2.2 billion. This shows the core business is healthy and profitable, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event that directly answers why ADP is moving: strong financial results.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to continued growth ADP guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5-6% and adjusted EPS growth of 9-11%, with margin expansion of 70-90 basis points. The outlook assumes stable macro conditions and includes client funds interest revenue of $1.54-1.56 billion. This gives investors confidence in future earnings, supporting the stock.

    Guidance is a key new driver that shapes expectations for the coming year.

  • AI-powered productivity and Lyric HCM platform drive efficiency ADP highlighted that its Lyric HCM platform saw live clients jump 94% year-over-year, and AI tools like ADP Assist handled 12 million conversations. Management expects AI to boost productivity, allowing headcount to stay flat while reinvesting in sales and tech. This supports margin expansion and long-term growth.

    AI is a central new theme in ADP's strategy and a reason for optimism.

  • Weak June jobs report raises economic concerns The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half of expectations, with prior months revised down. ADP's own report showed 98,000 private jobs added, but the broader slowdown could reduce demand for payroll and HR services if businesses pull back on hiring. This is a potential headwind.

    This is a new counterweight that could pressure ADP's stock if economic weakness persists.

▲3▼1

ADP beats on strong Q4, guides 5-6% growth as AI drives productivity

  • Strong Q4 and full-year results beat expectations ADP reported 7% revenue growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth in Q4, with full-year revenue of $21.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.12. Retention stayed high at 92.1%, and new business bookings grew 6% to $2.2 billion. This shows the core business is healthy and profitable, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event that directly answers why ADP is moving: strong financial results.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to continued growth ADP guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5-6% and adjusted EPS growth of 9-11%, with margin expansion of 70-90 basis points. The outlook assumes stable macro conditions and includes client funds interest revenue of $1.54-1.56 billion. This gives investors confidence in future earnings, supporting the stock.

    Guidance is a key new driver that shapes expectations for the coming year.

  • AI-powered productivity and Lyric HCM platform drive efficiency ADP highlighted that its Lyric HCM platform saw live clients jump 94% year-over-year, and AI tools like ADP Assist handled 12 million conversations. Management expects AI to boost productivity, allowing headcount to stay flat while reinvesting in sales and tech. This supports margin expansion and long-term growth.

    AI is a central new theme in ADP's strategy and a reason for optimism.

  • Weak June jobs report raises economic concerns The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half of expectations, with prior months revised down. ADP's own report showed 98,000 private jobs added, but the broader slowdown could reduce demand for payroll and HR services if businesses pull back on hiring. This is a potential headwind.

    This is a new counterweight that could pressure ADP's stock if economic weakness persists.