Pop Mart's H1 growth slows sharply; overseas weakness and Labubu decline weigh on outlook
Strong H1 revenue and profit, plus buyback Pop Mart reported H1 2026 revenue up 23.8% to 17.17 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan (30% margin). It also announced a 2-5 billion yuan share buyback over six months, which supports the share price by returning cash to shareholders and signalling confidence.
This is the core positive fundamental news that initially drove the stock and provides a counterweight to the negative outlook.
Diversified IP portfolio and new store openings Six top IPs each generated over 1 billion yuan, with TWINKLE TWINKLE up 580.6% and plush category up 60%. Pop Mart also opened its first beachfront store in Pattaya, Thailand, boosting brand exposure and tourist footfall. These show demand beyond Labubu and support future growth.
Highlights the company's ability to grow other IPs and expand globally, which is key to offsetting Labubu's decline.
Overseas sales decline and Citi downgrade Asia Pacific ex-China revenue fell 9.7% and Americas dropped 16.5%, leading Citi to cut its price target to HK$198 and forecast an 8% group revenue decline in 2026. Management now sees its initial 20% growth target as difficult, raising concerns about overseas expansion.
This is the main negative driver that caused the stock to fall over 4% and reflects real challenges in key growth markets.
Labubu revenue declines for first time Labubu (The Monsters) revenue fell 7.5% year-on-year to 4.45 billion yuan, its first contraction in years. Analysts see this as a warning that growth is normalizing and want new IPs that can match Labubu's scale to offset the slowdown.
Labubu has been the main growth engine, so its decline is a significant negative signal for future earnings.