Svenska Handelsbanken ser. B

Barclays turned positive on Swedish banks, upgrading SEB and Swedbank to Overweight and Handelsbanken to Equal Weight as it sees corporate lending recovering and the Riksbank set to raise interest rates again. Analysts led by Namita Samtani said most European banks have de-rated since late August on sovereign spread and fiscal worries, but Swedish banks have not, and Sweden has undertaken the Nordics' deepest corporate deleveraging since 2022, with corporate debt down about 15 percentage points of GDP from its peak and corporate lending growth rebounding to 4% from minus 1% in 2024. Barclays raised its SEB target to SEK262 from SEK204 and called it the preferred way to capture a recovery in large-corporate borrowing, seeing EPS 6-7% above consensus for 2027-28, while Swedbank's target rose to SEK467 from SEK347 on rate sensitivity and Handelsbanken moved to Equal Weight from Underweight with a target of SEK146. The bank forecasts two more Riksbank hikes of 25 basis points, in November 2026 and June 2027, noting Swedish banks are among Europe's most rate-sensitive, with a 50 basis point rise adding about 8% to 2027 pre-tax profit on average versus about 5% for Nordic banks and 2.1% for European peers. Elsewhere in the Nordic shake-up, Barclays kept Jyske Bank at Overweight with a target of DKK1,340 from DKK1,045, double-downgraded Norway's DNB to Underweight from Overweight with a target cut 15% to NOK282, cut Danske Bank to Equal Weight from Overweight, and stayed Underweight Nordea.