US Dollar/Polish Zloty FX Spot Rate

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland to delay rate hikes until early 2027, with government fuel-price measures allowing policymakers to remain patient. He sees the EUR/PLN trading range shifting higher to 4.380–4.400 amid a strong US Dollar, rising energy prices and risk aversion. The call comes as the Romanian Leu awaits political clarity.

ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky says the Polish Zloty and Romanian Leu remain under pressure after the National Bank of Poland held rates at 3.75%. A dovish policy message from the central bank could push EUR/PLN towards 4.380–4.400, Taborsky wrote. The Leu is also flagged as pressured in the same ING assessment.

The National Bank of Poland kept a dovish stance, signalling no need to adjust rates potentially until mid-next year despite rising inflation, according to ING's Frantisek Taborsky. That posture leaves the Polish zloty vulnerable against the euro, Taborsky noted. The central bank's guidance points to rates staying unchanged potentially until mid-next year even as inflation rises.

Societe Generale warns that Poland's elevated fiscal deficit and rapidly rising public debt could keep pressure on the zloty. The bank says the draft 2027 budget will be the next key test for investor appetite.

A dovish stance from the National Bank of Poland and market expectations of future rate cuts are weighing on the Polish Zloty, according to ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky. ING’s models indicate the EUR/PLN exchange rate is moving closer to 4.340. Central and Eastern European currencies are expected to be driven by secondary data and policy expectations.

Polish inflation fell to the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% target, with broad price declines and stable core inflation, according to ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky. Markets have priced out hikes and begun to price cuts, which he says could pressure market rates and weaken the zloty.