Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲
UBS Upgrades Salzgitter, ArcelorMittal and voestalpine to Buy on EU Steel Quotas
UBS upgraded European steelmakers Salzgitter, ArcelorMittal and voestalpine to buy from neutral on Friday and kept its buy rating on SSAB, saying new EU import quotas that remove about 9 million tonnes of annual imports will tighten supply after a recent pullback in the shares. The broker set price targets of 71 euros for ArcelorMittal, 71 euros for Salzgitter, 64 euros for voestalpine and 120 Swedish crowns for SSAB, implying upside of 31%, 61%, 51% and 21% respectively, and named Salzgitter its top pick because its earnings are about 2.5 to 3.5 times more sensitive to higher EU steel prices than the other three. EU safeguard measures that took effect July 1 cap duty-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes a year, with a 50% tariff on anything above the quotas, while blast furnace restarts mainly by ArcelorMittal bring back about 7.6 million tonnes of announced capacity, partly offset by cuts at Taranto and at HKM, which Salzgitter owns. UBS raised its EU hot-rolled coil price forecasts by 2%, 11% and 10% for 2026, 2027 and 2028, now expecting about 820 euros a tonne in 2027 and 805 euros in 2028 against a spot of about 745 euros, and said import parity is above 900 euros a tonne, about 20% above spot, with 1,000 euros not ruled out if demand improves. The broker warned third-quarter results will not show the upturn, forecasting earnings below consensus for ArcelorMittal, voestalpine and SSAB on weak summer demand, the delayed effect of lower prices in May and June and higher energy costs, with Salzgitter the exception at 9% above consensus on higher steel shipments.
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MT.AS · Capital · Positive UBS upgraded ArcelorMittal to buy with a 71-euro target, citing EU import quotas tightening supply.
SZG.XETRA · Capital · Positive UBS upgraded Salzgitter to buy, named it top pick, and set a 71-euro target on its high sensitivity to higher EU steel prices.
VAS.XETRA · Capital · Positive UBS upgraded voestalpine to buy with a 64-euro target, though it warned Q3 earnings will be below consensus.