Asia Plus Securities estimates that Bangkok Hospital Bumrungrad Public Company Limited, or BH, will report net profit in the third quarter of 2569 of 2,111 million baht, up 3.7% year on year and 11.7% quarter on quarter, on hospital revenue expected to rise 3.2% year on year and 7.5% quarter on quarter, in line with management's target of 3% year on year. The growth is supported by both foreign and Thai patients, as well as a better patient mix and cost control. Foreign patients are the main driver, especially the Middle East group, which accounts for about 23% of hospital revenue and is recovering after the Iran war eased, reflected in Middle Eastern tourists in the third quarter of 2569 rising 12.9% year on year and 142.4% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, patients from Myanmar, the United Kingdom, the United States and Bangladesh are gradually recovering. Thai patients are supported by seasonality, disease outbreaks and complex cases. Although flooding in Bangkok from 24-26 September caused some appointments to be postponed, they have been rescheduled. Meanwhile, the lower Cambodian patient base since mid-2568 supports year-on-year growth. Gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 52.9% in the third quarter of 2568 and 52.0% in the second quarter of 2569, driven by a higher proportion of foreign patients and complex cases. SG&A to sales is expected at 15.9%, down from 16.3% in the third quarter of 2568, reflecting better earnings quality. If the third quarter of 2569 meets expectations, net profit for the first nine months of 2569 will be 74% of the full-year estimate, within a satisfactory range. The fourth quarter of 2569 is expected to show year-on-year profit growth, adding confidence to the 2569 profit estimate of 7,810 million baht, up 4.0% year on year, on revenue of 25,890 million baht, up 3.0% year on year, driven by the recovery of foreign patients, especially from the Middle East, which remains the main support. The fourth quarter of 2569 trend is expected to slow quarter on quarter but still grow year on year due to seasonality and the long December holiday. Foreign patients remain strong, while Thai patients are supported by complex cases and patients whose appointments were postponed by the flood gradually returning. The fourth quarter is also the high season for the health check-up business, and the rising trend of in-depth health checks is expected to help Health Check-up receive a better response than last year. Asia Plus Securities maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2570 fair value of 225.00 baht per share, based on DCF, representing 20% upside. It views the profit outlook as still strong on the recovery of foreign patients, especially from the Middle East, together with a high-margin patient mix and efficient cost control, supporting both growth and earnings quality.
Bumrungrad Hospital PCLAsia Plus estimates BH's 3Q69 net profit at 2,111 million baht, up 3.7% YoY, with gross margin rising to 53.2% and SG&A down to 15.9%, supporting a 225 baht target.
Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL
