Bumrungrad Hospital PCL

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) assesses that Thailand's hosting of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from 12-18 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, will be a positive factor for the Thai stock market. It marks Thailand's return as host after 35 years, having last hosted in 1991, and more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries are expected. Thailand is presenting the concept "A New Horizon for Thailand: Empowering People, Strengthening Readiness for Change," and will push four main issues: the transition to digital and AI, the role of middle-sized countries in a multipolar world, coping with climate change, and preparing the economy for an aging society. Yuanta's research team cites the case study of Indonesia, which hosted in 2018, finding that the JCI Index rose 2.8% in the one month after the meetings and outperformed MSCI EM, MSCI DM and MSCI ACWI, which delivered negative returns during that period. It therefore sees the SET Index as likely to outperform regional markets. The digital and AI theme is positive for SMT, HANA, CCET, AMATA, WHA, DITTO and SKY, while the middle-sized countries theme, aimed at supporting SMEs, is positive for KBANK, SCB, KTB, SAWAD and MTC. The climate theme is positive for GUNKUL, SSP, GULF, DITTO and TEAMG, and the aging society theme is positive for BDMS, BH, BCH and CHG. It also sees the tourism group benefiting directly from an acceleration in traveler numbers, namely AOT, THAI, BA, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AWC, with several large concerts choosing to hold events in Thailand during November-December providing continued support.

Asia Plus Securities estimates that Bangkok Hospital Bumrungrad Public Company Limited, or BH, will report net profit in the third quarter of 2569 of 2,111 million baht, up 3.7% year on year and 11.7% quarter on quarter, on hospital revenue expected to rise 3.2% year on year and 7.5% quarter on quarter, in line with management's target of 3% year on year. The growth is supported by both foreign and Thai patients, as well as a better patient mix and cost control. Foreign patients are the main driver, especially the Middle East group, which accounts for about 23% of hospital revenue and is recovering after the Iran war eased, reflected in Middle Eastern tourists in the third quarter of 2569 rising 12.9% year on year and 142.4% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, patients from Myanmar, the United Kingdom, the United States and Bangladesh are gradually recovering. Thai patients are supported by seasonality, disease outbreaks and complex cases. Although flooding in Bangkok from 24-26 September caused some appointments to be postponed, they have been rescheduled. Meanwhile, the lower Cambodian patient base since mid-2568 supports year-on-year growth. Gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 52.9% in the third quarter of 2568 and 52.0% in the second quarter of 2569, driven by a higher proportion of foreign patients and complex cases. SG&A to sales is expected at 15.9%, down from 16.3% in the third quarter of 2568, reflecting better earnings quality. If the third quarter of 2569 meets expectations, net profit for the first nine months of 2569 will be 74% of the full-year estimate, within a satisfactory range. The fourth quarter of 2569 is expected to show year-on-year profit growth, adding confidence to the 2569 profit estimate of 7,810 million baht, up 4.0% year on year, on revenue of 25,890 million baht, up 3.0% year on year, driven by the recovery of foreign patients, especially from the Middle East, which remains the main support. The fourth quarter of 2569 trend is expected to slow quarter on quarter but still grow year on year due to seasonality and the long December holiday. Foreign patients remain strong, while Thai patients are supported by complex cases and patients whose appointments were postponed by the flood gradually returning. The fourth quarter is also the high season for the health check-up business, and the rising trend of in-depth health checks is expected to help Health Check-up receive a better response than last year. Asia Plus Securities maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2570 fair value of 225.00 baht per share, based on DCF, representing 20% upside. It views the profit outlook as still strong on the recovery of foreign patients, especially from the Middle East, together with a high-margin patient mix and efficient cost control, supporting both growth and earnings quality.

The Structured Product team at Bualuang Securities recommends a Buy on Dip strategy using ELN products to lock in future stock entry prices while earning returns during the wait, viewing market volatility and the flood situation as an opportunity to select stocks with high Earnings Resilience and Recovery Visibility. The recommended underlying stocks include CRC in the retail sector, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow 31% year on year and whose 2027 Core Profit is expected to grow 10%, with a 1-month ELN on CRC at a 96% strike offering a yield of 10.05% per year. In the hospital sector, BDMS and BH are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 6% and 2% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on BDMS at a 97% strike offering a yield of 6.91% per year. In the tourism sector, CENTEL and AWC are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 31% and 33% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on AWC at a 95% strike offering a yield of 8.32% per year. And in the power plant sector, GULF and GUNKUL are expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 46% and 35% year on year respectively, with a 1-month ELN on GULF at a 97% strike offering a yield of 5.58% per year. Reference prices are as of October 5, 2026. Lessons from the 2011 floods show that the speed of profit recovery matters more than the initial impact, and many sectors can recover within roughly one quarter.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Investment strategy, highlighting DRs linked to global technology stocks such as the Optical, CPU & AI Server, Semi Equipment, Cloud and Power groups, alongside Thai stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and the high season. Analysts note that the direction of US Federal Reserve policy continues to pressure the baht. If the terminal interest rate sits at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate weaker in a range of 35-37 baht per US dollar, or depreciate 4-10%, which is positive for the hospital group that treats foreign patients, such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9, as well as the tourism group like AOT, THAI and CENTEL, and the export group like TU, ITC and CPF. For the five standout stocks and interesting DRs, they include SHOP06, whose third-quarter earnings trend remains strong on the back of bringing AI to boost trading volume on its platform; MRVL06, which gets a boost from its Investor Day, where new technology is expected to be unveiled; ITC, which benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in the fourth quarter of 2026; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently, with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated; and BH, whose revenue and patient numbers from the Middle East are recovering strongly, while the stock still has high upside. On fund flows, although foreign investors still hold Thai stocks including NVDRs amounting to 36.5% of market value, cumulative net buying since the start of the year has fallen from a peak of 75 billion baht to just 18 billion baht, after more than 50 billion baht in net selling over the past two months. However, in the latest trading session, foreign investors began switching to net buying through the NVDR channel to the tune of 2.66 billion baht, reflecting selective accumulation of individual stocks expected to post fourth-quarter 2026 earnings growth to capture the high season.

Asia Plus Securities said 10 standout stocks will benefit from the trend of a continuing weaker baht, divided into hospital groups that benefit from foreign patients, namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; tourism groups that make it easier for foreign tourists to spend, namely AOT, THAI and CENTEL; and export groups that convert revenue back into baht at a higher rate, namely TU, ITC and CPF. The research department said the spread between the 10-year bond yield and Thailand's policy rate remains below its historical average, reflecting that the market still sees no clear signal of a change in interest rate direction. Meanwhile, factors from the United States, from the Fed's perspective, continue to pressure the baht. If the Fed's interest rate stands at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate in the range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar, or weaken from the current level by about 4% to 10%, if the end of the Fed's interest rate cycle has not yet arrived. On Thailand's water situation, the latest data indicates that many large reservoirs have water volumes exceeding capacity or near critical levels, such as Pa Sak Jolasid Dam at 110%, Nong Pla Lai Dam at 105% and Kaeng Krachan Dam at 102%. Meanwhile, medium and small reservoirs in many provinces, such as Chonburi, Trat, Ubon Ratchathani, Phrae and Phayao, have water volumes exceeding normal storage levels from 113% up to 159%. The point requiring closest monitoring is the area below Chao Phraya Dam, which has a water volume of 2,500 cubic meters per second, while it can hold 2,840 cubic meters per second.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained its positive view on Thailand's healthcare sector, estimating that flooding will cut 2026 core profits by only 0.6–1.0%, after checks with hospitals showed that none had floodwater enter their buildings or suffer property damage. It expects the healthcare sector's core profit in the third quarter of 2026 to grow 8% year on year, driven by the influenza outbreak, with patient numbers up 45% year on year, and by the low base of revenue from Cambodian patients a year earlier. BDMS and BCH are expected to post the strongest core profit growth at 11% and 10% respectively, followed by CHG at 7%, while BH is seen growing 3% and PR9 up 1%. On the flood impact, CHG has the highest share of beds in affected areas at 88%, followed by BCH at 46% and BDMS at 35%, while BH and PR9 have no beds in those areas. As a result, Maybank estimates 2026 core profit will fall by just 1.0% for CHG, 0.9% for BCH and 0.6–0.7% for the others. Maybank has already factored into its forecasts the upside from a 10% increase in the Social Security Office's per-head capitation rate from January 2027, which is expected to be concluded by October 24, lifting its 2027 core profit forecasts by 12% for BCH and 9% for CHG. It has raised its target price for BCH to 12.30 baht from 11.00 baht and for CHG to 2.00 baht from 1.90 baht, while keeping BH and CHG as its top picks.

Tisco Securities sees Thai stocks entering a recovery phase, with listed-company profits in the second quarter of 2026 setting record highs in revenue, net profit and EBITDA, while valuations remain attractive. Excluding DELTA, the Thai stock market trades at a 12-month forward PER of just 11.8 times, and about 60% of Thai listed companies still trade below their book value. The Thai market also offers an average dividend yield of around 3.9%, higher than the regional average of about 3.4%. Apichat Poobanjerdkul, senior director of the strategic analysis department at Tisco Securities, said the Thai economy and stock market are entering a period of stronger fundamentals, driven by private-sector investment, the AI and data center investment cycle, and continued growth in electronic component exports. He added that there is also long-term upside from large-scale infrastructure investment, especially the PDP 2026 power development plan, which is expected to involve investment worth as much as 2 to 3 trillion baht and is initially expected to add no less than 0.5% per year to GDP growth, making it the most important structural positive factor for Thailand in several decades. Tisco Securities assesses key support levels at 1,560 to 1,580 points and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,610, 1,630 and 1,660 points respectively. It recommends gradually accumulating during market weakness, and its top picks for October are BH, DELTA, KBANK, PTTEP, SJWD, TRUE and TVO.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in an analysis that the flood situation has widened, covering 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok as of 1 October 2026, affecting 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people. The impact on the economy remains limited, however, if the situation does not drag on and does not hit core production bases. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10%, while the research team expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The key thing to watch is the length of production stoppages in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. Other groups saw fairly limited impact. Consumer finance firms are expected to see about a 2% hit to 2026 earnings for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with an estimated 1–2% impact on earnings, larger than the effect on interest income. BGRIM said its SPP power plants in Amata City Chonburi and its floating solar operations are still running normally. Bualuang sees the flood-driven volatility as a chance to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and quick recovery prospects, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL, DELTA, KCE and HANA, which still have support from demand for AI and data centers.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends an investment strategy focused on three stocks with specific positive factors and strong earnings structures: CPALL, THAI, and BH, as a shelter from flood situations and inflation pressure. Its research department assesses that the construction materials sector is a group that benefits from flooding, while retail, hospitals, and food also receive support. Groups to watch include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture, and commercial banks, while groups negatively affected include tourism, property development, and non-bank hire-purchase. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market faced accelerating net selling by foreign investors, hitting a 39-week high for the year 2569, with a value of more than 26.8 billion baht in the past week. At the same time, domestic inflation in September 2569 is likely to accelerate to 3.0% from 2.5% the previous month, which could pressure the Monetary Policy Committee, which has currently cut interest rates to 1.00%, to consider raising rates if inflation stays at a high level for too long. In addition, Thailand must also cope with risks from storms and flash floods during 4-7 October 2569, with a preliminary assessment that if flooding persists for one week, it will cause economic damage of 5,000-10,000 million baht and drag third-quarter 2569 GDP growth down to 2.1-2.3%.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, will have hospital revenue of approximately 6.75 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.3% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from the same period last year, exceeding management's guidance of about 3% year-on-year revenue growth. International patient revenue is expected at 4.579 billion baht, up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.6% year-on-year, driven by an accelerating number of travelers from the Middle East to Thailand, with about 70,000 such tourists in September 2026, growing 18.8% year-on-year. Thai patient revenue is expected at 2.17 billion baht, up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year. Core profit for the third quarter of 2026 is expected at 2.088 billion baht, up 10.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year, on total revenue of approximately 6.77 billion baht. The gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 53.0% in the third quarter of 2025, and the EBITDA margin is expected at 41.4%, up from 40.9% in the same period last year. Phillip views the third quarter of 2026 as the best quarter of the year, with the second quarter of 2026 likely marking the bottom of performance. Core profit for the nine months of 2026 is expected at approximately 5.759 billion baht, up 2.3% year-on-year, representing 72.7% of the full-year profit forecast. It maintains a buy recommendation on BH with a year-end 2026 target price of 200 baht per share. The business expansion plan continues with the opening of a hospital in Phuket in two phases. The first phase, spanning years one to five, or approximately the second half of 2027 to 2032, will gradually open 120 beds, and the second phase, spanning years six to ten, or approximately 2032 to 2037, will add another 92 beds, for a total of 212 beds, following a hub-and-spoke model. Factors to monitor include the slow recovery in domestic purchasing power and the conflict situation in the Middle East, which may affect the number of international patients and BH's revenue trend going forward.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

AIA Thailand has announced a major strategic partnership, called the Frontier Strategic Partnership, with VitalLife Wellness Center, an international wellness center under Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, to develop a new approach to healthcare for high-net-worth clients. Ekrit Thitimun, Chief Insurance Business Officer of AIA Thailand, said the partnership will elevate the health experience to better meet consumers' needs on a more personalized basis. The services offered cover in-depth health assessments, hormone balance and nutritional analysis, genetic factor assessment, consultations to design personalized health care plans, as well as rehabilitation and wellness services. AIA's high-net-worth clients can access the services through the AIA Prestige Club program and connect seamlessly with Bumrungrad Hospital's network of specialist doctors. Assistant Professor Dr. Polkrit Teekhareekul, Chief Executive Officer of VitalLife Wellness Center and Esperance, said the partnership expands the scope of wellness from specialized services to an ecosystem of life. More than 100,000 clients in the AIA Prestige Club program will begin accessing this new health care service starting in January 2027.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited has raised its 2026 SET Index target to 1,590 points from 1,550 points, but maintained a Neutral view because the overall market upside is not particularly high. Speaking at an online seminar titled "Decoding Thai Stocks, Fourth Quarter: Finding the Next Winners," the firm said earnings support from listed companies is not yet broad-based, with upward earnings revisions concentrated mainly in the electronics and energy sectors, while bond yields in several countries remain elevated, pressuring valuations of risk assets. On the Thai economy, Maybank expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, supported by exports, private investment, and a recovery in tourism, though the government's fiscal capacity has diminished amid a higher public debt level. For its fourth-quarter strategy, Maybank recommends focusing on adjusting weights between industry groups and selecting individual stocks rather than investing based on index direction. It highlights three standout groups: consumer finance, where valuations are starting to look attractive again, with TIDLOR, KTC, and MTC as top picks; tourism and transport, where earnings momentum continues, with AWC, AOT, BA, and MINT; and hospital businesses, which have stable revenue and specific supporting factors, with BH and CHG. At the same time, it advises increased caution in three groups: utilities and energy, which has been downgraded from Positive to Neutral; petrochemicals; and retail.

Asia Plus Securities said GLP-1 drugs, used to treat type 2 diabetes and, in some formulations, to control weight in obese patients, are becoming a theme that supports private hospital operators, after Thailand's Food and Drug Administration upgraded GLP-1 injectables to specially controlled drugs from 15 September 2026, requiring them to be dispensed by prescription and using a Track & Trace system to monitor distribution and reduce leakage outside the system. Novo Nordisk is pressing ahead with expanding the obesity and diabetes market, including clinical research in Thailand, after investing about 370 million baht in research and development between 2019 and 2023. The research team holds a slightly positive view on private hospitals, because tighter regulation is likely to shift the channels through which the drugs are accessed rather than reduce demand, and should draw users toward standardised hospitals and clinics. Business opportunities extend to consultation fees, laboratory tests, follow-up and care for comorbidities. The effect on short-term profit is limited, given a still-low revenue base and constraints on drug prices, access and competition. The research team keeps an overweight stance on the hospital sector and sees BDMS and PR9 as standout beneficiaries. BDMS is advantaged by a diverse patient base and a large hospital network, while PR9 stands out for its cash-paying patient base, service accessibility, value for money and specialised services. BH also benefits from a cash-paying patient base and high-spending customers, but the quantitative benefit is expected to be smaller. It maintains Buy ratings on BDMS, PR9 and BH, with 2027 fair values of 25.00 baht, 3.00 baht and 225.00 baht respectively.

Bualuang Securities, or BLS, remains positive on the Thai stock market, assessing that the index is likely to trend upward from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could reach a best-case target of 1,780 points before shifting into sector rotation. Its base case puts the end-2027 target at 1,710 points, based on earnings per share of 106 baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier, with the overall profit decline driven mainly by an earnings correction in upstream energy, refining and petrochemicals. The main supporting factors come from three drivers: the global technology wave, an upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital. It estimates that every 10 billion baht in net foreign buying would lift the index by about 15 to 20 points. For its fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, it recommends a barbell approach. The first core focuses on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC. The other core focuses on power producers with structural growth, namely GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL. It also recommends retailers such as CRC and COM7, tourism names such as AOT, AWC and CENTEL, hospitals such as BH and BDMS, as well as 2027 growth leaders such as CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. In the first half of 2027, it advises rotating into groups that benefit from lower costs, such as CENTEL, before shifting to high-dividend stocks and companies with strong cash flows as the portfolio's core in the second half of 2027.

The research team at CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects hospital sector earnings to recover in the third quarter of 2026, forecasting that combined revenue for the six hospital operators under coverage will grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase is largely driven by the merger between RAM and THG. Excluding THG's results from RAM's consolidated financial statements, combined revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of BDMS, should see revenue growth of about 5% year on year on the return of foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the strongest revenue growth in the sector at 10% year on year, helped by a low base and the outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19. On net profit, CGSI expects the hospitals under coverage to post combined net profit growth of 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. PR9 is forecast to see net profit rise 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter to 248 million baht, while BCH will benefit from a higher share of Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment for complex diseases, putting its net profit for the first nine months of 2026 at 71% of the research team's full-year 2026 profit forecast. CGSI believes the sector's overall net profit has already passed its trough, and therefore recommends maintaining an Overweight rating on the sector, selecting BH and PR9 as its top picks on their higher share of foreign patients than peers and greater flexibility in adjusting strategy.

AIA Thailand has announced a major strategic partnership with VitalLife Wellness Center, an international health promotion center under the umbrella of Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, to develop a new approach to health care for high-net-worth customers. Mr. Ekarat Thitimun, Chief Health Insurance Business Officer of AIA Thailand, said the partnership will combine the strengths of both organizations to deliver a more distinctive and meaningful health experience. The services to be offered cover in-depth health assessments, hormone balance and nutritional status analysis, genetic factor assessment, consultations to design personalized health care plans, as well as rehabilitation and wellness services. AIA's high-net-worth customers can access the services through the AIA Prestige Club program, and if they require more complex diagnosis or treatment, they can also seamlessly access the medical capabilities and specialist physician network of Bumrungrad Hospital. Assistant Professor Dr. Polkrit Teekakeerikul, Chief Executive Officer of VitalLife Wellness Center and Esperance, and Chief Science Officer of Bumrungrad International Hospital and VitalLife Wellness Center, said the partnership expands the scope of wellness from specialized services to a life ecosystem that links health care with protection and long-term planning. More than 100,000 customers in the AIA Prestige Club program will be able to begin accessing this new health care service from January 2027 onward.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the Government Pharmaceutical Organization, together with Chulalongkorn University and Seqker Biosciences, is developing a personalised cancer vaccine that uses patients' genetic data to stimulate the immune system to attack cancer cells specifically. The vaccine is currently in phase 3-4 clinical research and has begun use in two foreign patients, with plans to extend into Medical Visa services and expand to state hospitals. The goal is to reduce treatment costs from 4-7 million baht to around 1 million baht. The research team views the private hospital sector positively over the medium to long term, because personalised cancer vaccines tend to complement Precision Medicine and Immunotherapy rather than replace existing treatments, creating opportunities to increase revenue per patient throughout the cancer treatment process, from genetic testing and laboratories to treatment and follow-up. It assesses that BH and BDMS are the main beneficiaries, maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, and keeps buy recommendations on BH and BDMS with 2027 fair values of 225.00 baht and 25.00 baht respectively.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Pi Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, setting a 2027 fair value of 220 baht per share against the current price of 195.50 baht, an upside of 12.5%. The valuation uses a discounted cash flow method based on a WACC of 8.5% and terminal growth of 2.0%, equivalent to 21.7 times PE'27E, while the stock trades at 18.8 times, close to the hospital sector average of 18.4 times. Pi Securities expects BH's profit to grow 3.6% and 3.2% year on year in 2026 and 2027 respectively, driven mainly by a recovery in foreign patients, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar. In 2027, additional support will come from the opening of Bumrungrad International Phuket, BH's second branch, with 212 beds and an investment of about 4.3 billion baht, fully funded by cash. The first phase will open for service within the third quarter of 2027, starting with 50 inpatient beds and targeting luxury customers. Management expects the branch to turn profitable within one to one and a half years of opening. Meanwhile, the main branch has an extension project in Soi Sukhumvit 1 that will be a new six-storey cancer treatment centre, expanding cancer examination rooms from 10 to 23, chemotherapy rooms from 18 to 30, and adding 59 inpatient beds in the cancer centre, with completion expected by the end of 2027. On results, BH reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.889 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 6% above market expectations. Hospital operating revenue was 6.231 billion baht, up 4% year on year, with revenue from foreign patients, which accounts for 66% of revenue, up 7% year on year as Myanmar patients rose 28% year on year, Middle East patients rose 7% year on year, and American patients rose 19% year on year. Revenue from Thai patients, which accounts for 34%, fell 2% year on year. Pi Securities expects BH revenue of 26.0 billion baht in 2026 and 27.0 billion baht in 2027, up 3% and 4% respectively, with gross margins of 51.9% and 51.4%, the 2027 figure down 50 basis points because of the early-stage losses at the Phuket branch. Net profit is forecast at 7.803 billion baht in 2026 and 8.052 billion baht in 2027, up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively. Pi Securities views BH's ability to raise treatment prices by about 5% a year, above Thailand's average inflation of 1.1% a year over the past 10 years, as a factor supporting long-term value. Key risks include more intense competition in the premium healthcare market, reliance on foreign patients, and medical personnel risk.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited (AWC) has announced a partnership with VitalLife Scientific Wellness Center, under Bumrungrad Hospital, to open "AYA Wellness Club" at Empire, Thailand's first comprehensive health and lifestyle destination in the heart of Bangkok. The club will operate 24 hours a day, offering preventive health programs, longevity, spa, dining, hydrotherapy, heat therapy, and fitness, with VitalLife serving as advisor on preventive healthcare and Longevity Medicine. Located in Empire, which spans over 48,000 square meters and is certified LEED Gold, WELL Core Platinum, and others, the first phase is set to open in 2026, with full operations in 2027.

Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, announced the expansion of its business into preventive medicine, while continuing to expand into Asian markets to complement the Middle East, and increasing capacity to accommodate patients in Sukhumvit. The company is positioning its Phuket project as a growth engine, with an investment of over 4.3 billion baht to develop Bumrungrad International Hospital Phuket on approximately 16.5 rai of land near Phuket International Airport. The hospital is scheduled to begin services in the third quarter of 2026 with an initial capacity of 120 beds, expandable to 212 beds in the future, to cater to medical and wellness tourism. A senior source from BH stated that the hospital is shifting its model from sick care to health and wellness by creating an ecosystem that reaches consumers in daily life, such as collaborating with hotels and sports communities, as well as offering health and nutrition classes with partners. For the domestic market, BH aims to expand its base to the healthy and wealthy elderly and health-conscious younger generations. In international markets, the company continues to prioritize Asia, especially China, Laos, and Vietnam, to diversify its patient portfolio and achieve long-term balance. Meanwhile, BH has increased its patient capacity by expanding its facility on Sukhumvit Soi 1, which currently has 580 inpatient beds and can accommodate more than 5,500 outpatients per day.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that Riyadh Air will launch direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok starting September 2, 2026, and plans to increase frequency to 7 flights per week by October 2026. This will enhance convenience for patients from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to access Thai medical services, especially for complex diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and orthopedic conditions, which are self-pay groups with high revenue per case. Currently, Saudi tourists traveling to Thailand exceed 200,000 per year, or about 27-28% of all Middle Eastern tourists. The research department believes that BH will benefit the most, given its foreign patient revenue accounts for as much as 67% of hospital revenue, and revenue from Middle Eastern patients is about 22% of total revenue. Although revenue from Saudi patients accounts for only 1.0% of total revenue, compared to BCH at 0.6% and BDMS at 0.1%, it is expected that this market will grow faster than the average for foreign patients over the next 3-5 years, driven by a population base of over 35 million and strong purchasing power. Meanwhile, BDMS and BCH are likely to benefit secondarily, especially BDMS, which can expand into Wellness, Preventive Medicine, and Longevity Programs that are gaining popularity among Saudi clients. The research department has upgraded its investment stance on the hospital group to "overweight" from expectations of the strongest third-quarter 2026 earnings of the year, and has selected BH as a top pick with a "buy" recommendation and a 2027 fair value of 225.00 baht.

Bumrungrad International Hospital (BH) has announced the enhancement of its dry eye care services through a dedicated dry eye clinic under its ophthalmology center, utilizing IDRA technology to thoroughly analyze the tear film system and devise personalized treatment plans. Dr. Artirat Charukitpipat, Chief Executive Officer, stated that dry eye disease is becoming more prevalent, particularly due to increased screen usage habits. The hospital emphasizes in-depth diagnosis and multidisciplinary treatment. The hospital has been ranked by Newsweek as number one in Asia for refractive surgery and number three for cataract surgery, maintaining the top position in Thailand for both categories for the second consecutive year. Professor Dr. Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Head of the Dry Eye Clinic, noted that dry eye is not solely caused by insufficient tear production but also includes meibomian gland dysfunction (MGD). IDRA technology helps accurately identify the underlying causes. Treatments range from behavioral modifications and warm compresses to light-based therapies (LLLT and IPL), and for severe cases, PRP or autologous serum eye drops may be used.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) revealed that the healthcare sector has entered a recovery cycle, with group profit for 2026 expected at 26,548 million baht, down 2% from the previous year, before recovering to 28,142 million baht, up 6% in 2027. Revenue for Q3 2026 is expected at 44,542 million baht, up 11.8% from the previous quarter and 7.0% from the same period last year, driven by the high season of influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks and the recovery of foreign patients. BDMS accounts for 69% of total revenue, with expected revenue growth of 14.3% from the previous quarter and 9.0% from the same period last year. Excluding BDMS, revenue would grow 6.6% from the previous quarter and 2.9% from the same period last year. BH and PR9 have the highest revenue share from Middle Eastern patients at 18% and 9%, respectively, reflecting BH's Middle Eastern patient revenue still growing 13.5% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, many stocks are trading at PER below their long-term average by about -1 to -1.5 standard deviations. PR9 trades at a PER of 17.7 times, below its 4-year average of 23.6 times, and has upside from social security cap adjustments.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market in September still faces pressure from geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows, but there are still opportunities for selective stock picking, especially stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and rising commodity prices. The firm highlights top picks BBL, PTT, and BCH. Brent crude oil prices surged to $90.49 per barrel, while WTI stood at $86.27 per barrel. This raises the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting to 65.4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest in a year. Foreign investors were net sellers in the Thai stock market in August, with net selling of 24.565 billion baht, and accumulated net short positions in the futures market of over 51,000 contracts. This pushed the baht to weaken to 33.16 baht per U.S. dollar, opening opportunities for three stock groups: export groups led by HANA, SVI, DELTA, and KCE; tourism groups led by AOT, AAV, BA, MINT, CENTEL, and ERW; and hospital groups led by BH, BDMS, PR9, and BCH. The Thai stock market structure has a 26% share of commodity stocks, helping to keep the index less volatile than the region. Meanwhile, Bitcoin risks a consolidation in September, with a recommendation to take short-term profits in DR: COIN01 and DR: HOOD80, and to watch for speculative opportunities in Tesla stock via DR: TSLA80 ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI maintains a "Buy" recommendation on Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) with a target price of 212 baht, after raising its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 4% and for 2028 by 2%. It expects net profit for Q3/2026 to be 2,083 million baht, up 2% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, bringing 9-month 2026 profit to 5,763 million baht, or 77% of the full-year estimate. The research house sees revenue from international patients still growing 7.1% in Q2/2026, led by patients from Myanmar, the Middle East, and the US. Although the number of international patients declined 6%, revenue from complex treatments is expected to rise 14% for international patients and 5% for Thai patients. Meanwhile, GPM in Q3/2026 is expected to increase to 52.5% from 52.0% in the previous quarter, and the company can control SG&A expenses to 15.8% of revenue. CGSI also raised its dividend payout assumption to 100% for 2026-2028, implying a dividend yield of about 5%. It expects BH to have EBITDA of around 10-11 billion baht per year, sufficient to support annual dividend payments of about 7.7-8.1 billion baht. Risks to monitor include potential escalation of Middle East tensions and increased competition in the international patient market. Positive factors include pent-up demand from Middle Eastern patients that may be stronger than expected and the reopening of the Thai-Cambodian border checkpoint.

Third-quarter net profit of Thai listed companies is expected to expand from a year earlier but slow from the previous quarter, with the main support coming from higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand, as well as new power generation capacity and profit from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring the airline group, and narrowing interest margins are pressuring the banking group. Groups whose core profit is expected to grow from a year earlier are led by energy, petrochemicals and construction materials, supported by average Brent crude prices in July to August rising 28% from a year earlier and Singapore GRM refining margins rising 434% from a year earlier. The electronics group is supported by strong AI and data center demand, with DELTA Taiwan's power electronics sales in July growing 59% from a year earlier and 17% from the previous quarter. KCE expects PCB revenue may rise 17 to 19% from the previous quarter thanks to product price increases effective from July 1, which should lift average selling prices by about 9 to 10%. HANA is seeing IC capacity utilization recover, and AI-related products are expected to begin commercial production from the third quarter. The communications group is supported by mobile and internet service revenue. The hospital group expects revenue to return to growth both from a year earlier and from the previous month in July, supported by Thai and Middle Eastern patients, with flights from the Persian Gulf estimated to have recovered to pre-war levels since early July. The retail group saw same-store sales rise 1% from a year earlier in July, led by IT product retailers, with COM7 expecting total sales to grow 15% from a year earlier and ADVICE growing 17% from a year earlier. CPALL expects same-store sales to expand 0.5% from a year earlier on average in July to August, while Makro was flat and Lotus contracted 5% from a year earlier. The tourism group saw revenue per available room in July at AWC rise 26% from a year earlier, CENTEL rise 8% from a year earlier, ERW rise about 5% from a year earlier, and MINT rise 4% from a year earlier. Groups whose core profit is expected to decline from a year earlier are led by transport, pressured by higher jet fuel costs, banking, pressured by persistently narrowing interest margins, and meat, pressured by lower meat prices, with average pork prices in July falling 14% from a year earlier and chicken prices falling 1% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the pet food export group expects sales to still grow 10% from a year earlier and 7% from the previous quarter in July. Analysts recommend being selective in stocks whose third-quarter earnings trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp earnings downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE in electronics, CBG in beverages, which expects domestic energy drink sales to grow 10% from a year earlier and Myanmar sales to grow 70% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, ITC in pet food exports, BH and BDMS in hospitals, AOT and CENTEL in tourism and airports, and GPSC in power plants, which recognizes full-quarter profit from GHECO-One and Glow IPP power plants.

Analysts at CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, estimate that normalised profit for six hospital stocks in the second quarter of 2026 fell 2% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, which should mark the low point for this year. They expect the hospital group to recover in the second half, though the pace of recovery will vary by company. CGSI sees BH and PR9 outperforming peers because they have a higher proportion of foreign patients, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar, as well as pent-up demand that may return as Middle East tensions ease. BDMS should also benefit from this situation, but BDMS's mid-tier hospitals, along with CHG and RAM, may still face pressure from weak domestic demand and intensifying competition. However, BCH, CHG and RAM should benefit from a low base in the third quarter of 2026, which may help net profit avoid a year-on-year decline. CGSI continues to name BH and PR9 as top picks in the sector. The healthcare index is up 5% year to date, significantly underperforming the SET Index's 29% gain, and CGSI believes current hospital share prices already reflect concerns about weaker earnings. It therefore maintains an Overweight rating, seeing key upside drivers as an easing of Middle East tensions and a faster-than-expected recovery in medical tourism. Downside risks include higher SG&A expenses and a continued slowdown in the Thai economy.

Shares of Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, rose 3% after brokers forecast third-quarter 2026 profit growth and higher full-year 2026 earnings from the previous year, while recommending a buy with a target price of 232 baht. The share price this morning stood at 206.00 baht, up 6.00 baht or 3.00%, with trading value of 545.30 million baht. ASL Securities expects third-quarter 2026 revenue of 6.708 billion baht, up 3% from the same period last year. Hospital operating costs are seen at 47.5%, up from 47.0% a year earlier, due to rising physician fees and product costs, with net profit forecast at 2.063 billion baht, growing 1.4% year on year. For full-year 2026, revenue is projected at 25.879 billion baht, up 2.6%, and net profit at 7.654 billion baht, up 1.3%. The opening of Bumrungrad International Hospital Phuket is scheduled for a first-phase soft launch in the third quarter of 2027. The trend is expected to pressure short-term costs mainly from depreciation, but the gradual service rollout and centralized management should help control medical supply and administrative costs, which are variable costs, and support the creation of consistent standards.

Several brokers issued research notes on Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, after attending an analyst meeting, forecasting that third-quarter 2026 performance will grow on recovering international patients and expansion into the new market of Iraq. Asia Plus Securities raised its 2026 net profit estimate to 7.81 billion baht from 7.714 billion baht and lifted its 2027 fair value to 225 baht per share, maintaining a buy rating. Krungsri Securities recommends buying with a target price of 225 baht, despite a neutral view on the revenue direction. KGI Securities raised its 2026 profit forecast by 6.6 percent to 7.87 billion baht and increased its 2027 target price to 228 baht from 218 baht. UOB Kay Hian maintained a buy rating with a target price of 236 baht and named BH a top pick in the hospital sector.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Bualuang Securities assesses that hospital stocks have already passed their low point of the year in the second quarter and will recover in the third quarter, driven by seasonal factors and pent-up demand from the Middle East. Combined core profit of the four hospital stocks under coverage was 5.7 billion baht, down 4% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, on combined revenue of 37 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The quarterly decline came from softer Thai patient volumes due to seasonality and economic conditions, while the fly-in business continued to grow. Average gross margin was 36.5%, down 110 basis points year-on-year and 90 basis points quarter-on-quarter, due to higher depreciation from capacity expansion. BH and PR9 still posted profit growth from fly-in demand, while BDMS was most affected by fewer Cambodian patients. BCH beat estimates as social security revenue helped offset weaker general patient volumes. For the third quarter, the picture improves as flights between the Middle East and Bangkok return to pre-conflict levels, combined with the high season for both Thai and fly-in patients. July data already show revenue increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month. On financial positions, BH stands out most, with second-quarter ROE rising to 27.6% from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, along with the highest net cash position in the group. BDMS is the only company with net debt, but its debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.1 times. Bualuang maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, with BH as the top pick on the recovery of Middle Eastern patients and a strong financial position across the board. For BDMS, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 23 baht for end-2027, viewing the second quarter as likely the low point. July revenue trends have started to return to year-on-year growth for both Thai and foreign customers, leading to expectations that third-quarter core profit will increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Third-quarter support comes from the disease outbreak season, no high base from Cambodian customers as in the previous year, and Myanmar revenue still growing strongly at 42% year-on-year in the second quarter, continuing from 43% year-on-year in the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year. Third-quarter gross margin is expected to rise to 35-37% from a higher proportion of more complex cases. Net debt-to-equity is only 0.1 times, and second-quarter receivable turnover rose to 43 times, up 7% year-on-year. Inventory turnover was 16 times, above the group average of 12 times. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, below the long-term average by 1.5 standard deviations. First-half profit accounted for 45% of the full-year estimate, close to the normal proportion, so full-year profit is still seen as in line with estimates. For BH, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 220 baht and still selects it as the standout hospital stock. The third quarter has two main supports at the same time: the recovery of Middle Eastern patients travelling for treatment and the high season for Thai patients. Higher treatment intensity per case supports both revenue and gross margin, even though foreign patient numbers have not fully recovered. Third-quarter core profit is expected to grow faster year-on-year than in the second quarter and to increase quarter-on-quarter on seasonality. Preliminary July data indicate that Thai patients have started to increase from rainy-season illnesses, while flight routes from the Middle East have returned to pre-conflict levels, although patient numbers still lag. The impact of Cambodian patients suspending services after the border incident on 24 July 2025 will not affect third-quarter figures. On financial position, second-quarter ROE was 27.6%, up from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, clearly higher than other stocks in the group. The company has a net cash position and receivable turnover rose to 84 times from 59 times in the second quarter last year. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, while the target price of 220 baht is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, or one standard deviation below the 10-year average of 30 times. Dividends are an additional upside, with the first-half interim dividend of 4 baht per share higher than expected. If a special dividend is paid at the same proportion as in 2025, dividend yield would rise to 6.0%, compared with a base case of 2.6%. However, the main point of the investment idea still places more weight on a return to profit growth than on dividends as a supplement.

Asia Plus Securities expects hospital group profit to recover in the third quarter of 2026, growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, after second-quarter revenue fell 2.9% from the previous quarter but still rose 1.0% from a year earlier, supported by Middle Eastern patients returning after Ramadan and the easing of the Iran situation. Meanwhile, the group's normalized profit fell 5.0% from a year earlier and 12.0% from the previous quarter, led by Bangkok Dusit Medical Services falling 9% and Bangkok Chain Hospital falling 6%, while Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital posted profit growth of 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. The research team maintained a market-weight rating on the hospital group, selected Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital as top picks, with fair values of 220.00 baht and 22.00 baht respectively, while Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is a tactical top pick with a maintained buy recommendation and a fair value of 23.00 baht.