CP ALL Public Company Limited

InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, released an analysis recommending a Selective Buy investment strategy on the Domestic Play theme after the SET ended September with a sharp plunge below 1,600 points, hitting a more than three-month low near 1,550 points. It attributed the pressure to three factors: bond yields holding high, pressuring the baht and fund flows, with foreign investors recording continuous net selling in the Thai stock market from September 22 to 29, 2026 totaling almost 20 billion baht; valuations that have begun to look stretched after the index rose about 27% year-to-date in the first nine months of 2026, driven mainly by buying in the energy group, up 38.5% year-to-date, banks, up 32.4% year-to-date, and electronics, up 53.5% year-to-date; and concerns over flooding that could affect asset quality and raise NPL risk. On investment approach, it recommends temporarily avoiding big-cap stocks that have already risen sharply and focusing instead on Domestic Play stocks tied to domestic consumption, namely the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the healthcare group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE. October will meanwhile mark the start of the full high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, beginning with Golden Week, when Chinese travelers favor trips to Thailand, combined with tailwinds from Europeans starting their winter getaways and domestic long holidays. There is also upside from global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings and the Tomorrowland music festival, which will support tourist numbers and tourism revenue accelerating higher. InnovestX assesses that the tourism sector will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 and carry positive momentum into the first half of 2027, and therefore recommends looking for opportunities to buy for trading gains in stocks that benefit directly from tourism, namely AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased spending, namely CPALL, CRC, CPN, HTC and ICHI.

Pobchai Pattarawich, equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Securities Research, said the Thai stock market has still not been able to recover and stand above 1,600 points, even though some recovery has been seen, with the main support still concentrated in electronic component stocks. Meanwhile, further upside remains significantly limited because the market still lacks new positive factors and faces macroeconomic pressure from abroad, including US bond yields holding above 5% and Brent crude oil prices staying at high levels, amid concerns over fiscal positions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are pressuring foreign investment flows to tend to return to dollar assets or the US market instead. On domestic factors, the flood situation is a short-term risk the market is closely monitoring, although economic research centers estimate the net impact on GDP at a limited range of about 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP. Meanwhile, as commercial banks enter the third-quarter 2026 earnings announcement period, the market initially expects a slight slowdown compared with the same period last year, leaving a lack of momentum to drive the index sharply higher. The investment strategy therefore recommends Buy on Dip to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks in 3 main themes: first, groups tied mainly to domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; second, groups benefiting from the flood situation, from emergency stockpiling of essential goods in the commerce group CPALL, BJC and CRC, through to demand for home repairs after the water recedes in the commerce group HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and third, groups expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, namely the tourism group ERW, CENTEL and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN and CRC.

TTB Wealth stated that same-store sales growth, or SSSG, for the retail sector in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to continue recovering to +0.3% after five consecutive quarters of contraction, supported by each company's strategy adjustments and a resilient economy aided by stimulus measures. The consumer staples group remains strong, with BJC (Big C) standing out most, returning to +0.3% after adjusting its product strategy to better align with customer demand, while CPALL also continues to perform well. CPAXT, however, remains weak in both retail and wholesale businesses. In the home improvement retail group, SSSG is expected to be pressured by higher energy prices, causing consumers to delay spending on construction and home decoration, but a greater focus on selling higher-margin house brand products is expected to partially offset weak sales, with GLOBAL being the most resilient. In the luxury goods group, CRC stands out most thanks to business restructuring and strategies that have driven a strong sales recovery, while MOSHI and CPN continue to perform well. TTB Wealth recommends buying CRC, CPN, and GLOBAL, which have their own specific drivers and resilience to weak economic conditions, while recommending a trade for BJC after initial signs of improvement.

Yuanta Securities stated that Thai Coconut Public Company Limited, or COCOCO, is likely to post another quarter of strong normal profit growth in the third quarter of 2026, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with preliminary normal profit expected in the range of 140 to 160 million baht. The gains are driven by the export high season across North Asia, the United States, and Europe, together with a severe heatwave that is boosting demand for beverages and pet food, and by a full quarter of revenue recognition from sales of the Thai Coco brand coconut products in 7-Eleven stores. The gross profit margin is expected to widen to 24.5% to 25.0% as coconut input costs continue to decline. Yuanta expects normal profit for 2026 at 544 million baht, up 142.6% from a year earlier, and forecasts normal profit for 2027 to grow further to 632 million baht, up 16.1% year-on-year, supported by revenue growth of 9.9% year-on-year and the start of commercial production at a new plant in the Philippines in early 2027. That plant will help lower coconut costs, since Philippine coconut prices are currently about 20.0% lower than those in Thailand, and will push the gross profit margin up to 22.6% from 22.3% in 2026. It will also allow the company to take on more orders from European customers under the free trade agreement between the Philippines and the European Union. The company is currently in talks with a major US operator, Vita Coco, for coconut water products, an upside risk not yet included in the estimates. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 times for 2026 and 12.8 times for 2027. Yuanta maintains its Buy rating with a fair value of 8.00 baht.

CGSI, the Thai unit of CGS International, continues to rate the Thai retail sector Overweight, selecting Berli Jucker, or BJC, and CP All, or CPALL, as its top picks. It also recommends gradually accumulating BJC and DoHome, or DOHOME, after same-store sales showed continued signs of recovery. CGSI said CPALL should be accumulated gradually before same-store sales growth at 7-Eleven stores clearly recovers from late November 2026, a period when consumers are expected to have used up nearly all of their Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme benefits. Meanwhile, Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation, or MOSHI, is expected to be affected only temporarily by the flooding in late September 2026, so CGSI recommends using the dip in the share price to accumulate the stock. For BigC, September 2026 same-store sales growth is estimated at 2.5%, putting third-quarter 2026 same-store sales growth at 0.2%. MMVN is expected to post September same-store sales growth of 7.0% in Vietnamese dong terms and 12.2% in baht terms, putting third-quarter 2026 same-store sales growth at 9.7% and 13.0% respectively. For CPALL, September 2026 same-store sales growth at 7-Eleven stores is estimated at 1.5%, with the third quarter of 2026 also at 1.5%. Although the floods forced more than 100 7-Eleven stores to close, the overall impact on the network of more than 16,000 stores remains limited. For DOHOME, September 2026 same-store sales growth is estimated at 4.2% and third-quarter 2026 at 5.5%. GLOBAL is expected to see September 2026 same-store sales growth fall 5.0% and third-quarter 2026 fall 5.2%. HMPRO said flood-affected areas account for roughly 50% to 60% of HomePro store sales, likely pressuring September same-store sales growth at HomePro and MegaHome to minus 2% and plus 1% respectively, putting third-quarter 2026 same-store sales growth at minus 3.0% and minus 0.4% respectively. It views the slowdown in sales as customers postponing purchases rather than demand disappearing, and if the flood situation returns to normal, home repair demand should help support a recovery in HMPRO sales in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The research team at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, continues to recommend overweighting the Thai retail sector, selecting BJC and CPALL as top picks, based on tracking of same-store sales growth, or SSSG, which still supports accumulating BJC and DOHOME shares because sales are signalling a continued recovery. It recommends gradually accumulating CPALL shares before 7-Eleven's SSSG clearly recovers from late November, a period when consumers will likely have used up almost all of their Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme entitlements. As for MOSHI, it is seen as likely to be affected only temporarily by the flooding in late September, and the team recommends using the share price pullback to accumulate the stock. The research team estimates BigC will post SSSG of +2.5% in September 2026, bringing SSSG to +0.2% in the third quarter of 2026. MMVN is expected to post September SSSG of +7.0% in Vietnamese dong terms and +12.2% in baht terms, resulting in third-quarter 2026 SSSG of +9.7% and +13.0% respectively. Meanwhile, 7-Eleven stores are expected to post September SSSG of +1.5%, and although the late-September flooding forced more than 100 branches to close, the overall impact on the network of more than 16,000 branches is limited. MRDIYT is expected to see SSSG slow from +1.0% in July to +0.5% in August and +0.3% in September, bringing SSSG to +0.6% in the third quarter of 2026. MOSHI is estimated to post SSSG of +0.1% in September, down from the +3-4% estimated in the first half of the month, bringing SSSG to +3.9% in the third quarter of 2026. September SSSG for the wholesale business is expected at -17.0%, while the retail business should still post high SSSG of about +2.5%, compared with +2.2% in August. For DOHOME, SSSG is expected at +4.2% in September, led by growth in back-office sales of +9.0%, bringing SSSG to +5.5% in the third quarter of 2026. GLOBAL is expected to post SSSG of -5.0% in September and -5.2% in the third quarter of 2026. For HMPRO, areas affected by flooding account for roughly 50-60% of HomePro store sales, causing SSSG at HomePro and MegaHome stores to fall to -2% and +1% in September, resulting in SSSG of -3.0% and -0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 respectively. The team views the weaker sales as stemming from customers postponing purchases, and believes this will help support a recovery in HMPRO sales in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends an investment strategy focused on three stocks with specific positive factors and strong earnings structures: CPALL, THAI, and BH, as a shelter from flood situations and inflation pressure. Its research department assesses that the construction materials sector is a group that benefits from flooding, while retail, hospitals, and food also receive support. Groups to watch include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture, and commercial banks, while groups negatively affected include tourism, property development, and non-bank hire-purchase. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market faced accelerating net selling by foreign investors, hitting a 39-week high for the year 2569, with a value of more than 26.8 billion baht in the past week. At the same time, domestic inflation in September 2569 is likely to accelerate to 3.0% from 2.5% the previous month, which could pressure the Monetary Policy Committee, which has currently cut interest rates to 1.00%, to consider raising rates if inflation stays at a high level for too long. In addition, Thailand must also cope with risks from storms and flash floods during 4-7 October 2569, with a preliminary assessment that if flooding persists for one week, it will cause economic damage of 5,000-10,000 million baht and drag third-quarter 2569 GDP growth down to 2.1-2.3%.

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market has declined and fallen below the 1,600-point level, pressured by three main factors: US bond yields that remain elevated, selling by foreign investors, and concerns over the impact of the flood situation. During September 22-29, 2026, foreign investors posted net selling of Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht. Meanwhile, the SET has risen about 27% since the start of the year, with the energy, banking, and electronics sectors up 38.5%, 32.4%, and 53.5% respectively, prompting profit-taking to reduce risk. As for the outlook for the Thai stock market, the break below the 75-day moving average has damaged the short-term positive structure, with 1,560 points a key test of confidence. If it cannot hold, there is a chance of a decline to the 1,550-1,555 range; if it holds, a short-term technical rebound is possible, with resistance at 1,585-1,590 points. On investment strategy, a Selective Buy approach is recommended, temporarily avoiding large-cap stocks that rose sharply earlier and focusing on stocks tied to domestic purchasing power. The recommended stock list includes CPALL, CPN, and CRC in the commerce group, BCH and PR9 in the medical group, and TRUE in the communications group.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Securities analysts at Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said that although nationwide reservoir water levels are as high as 78% of capacity, the tourism sector is still operating normally, so they estimate that third-quarter 2026 earnings for the tourism group will be affected only slightly. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has reported no flight cancellations, and major airlines AAV, BA and THAI continue to operate as normal. Meanwhile, hotel operators led by AWC, CENTEL, DUSIT, ERW, MINT, SHR and VRANDA have suffered no property damage, though room booking cancellations in the provinces run about 2% to 15%, partly offset by guests extending their stays. KS therefore maintains its investment weighting on the hotel group, sees the drop in share prices driven by the flood factor as a buying opportunity, and recommends buying AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht. Separately, SBI Thai Online, or SBITO, assesses that this crisis will be a medium-term boost for four main business groups in the recovery: the home repair and construction materials group, led by HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and MR.DIY; the retail and consumer goods group, led by CPALL and CPAXT; the communications group, led by ADVANC and TRUE; and the tourism group, where economic activity will gradually recover after the situation eases.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.

Analysts at CGS International Securities (Thailand) said they hold a positive view on retail stocks, as flooding in many areas of Thailand has made travel inconvenient for the public and impossible in some areas, causing demand for food and consumer goods to rise clearly. They see this as a short-term positive for retail stocks and a driver of stronger sales growth for operators. The standout stocks in the group are BJC, CPALL and CPAXT. The research team gives a buy recommendation on BJC with a target price of 18.00 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) give a buy recommendation on CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to grow from the same period a year earlier, supported by continued convenience store expansion and same-store sales growth. They expect fourth-quarter 2026 profit to recover strongly, with first-half 2026 profit forecast to account for about 53% of the full year, and they estimate full-year profit at about 31 billion baht, growth of roughly 8.4% from a year earlier. For CPAXT, they set a target price of 16.40 baht with a trading buy recommendation, after the company reported progress on the completed acquisition of 100% of the issued and paid-up shares of The Food Purveyor Sdn. Bhd., or TFP. TFP is one of the main players in Malaysia's premium retail business, holding about 30% market share, operating premium supermarkets under five brands: Village Grocer, B.I.G., BSC Fine Foods, OTK and The Food Merchant, with a network of 50 branches, mostly in city-centre locations and near tourist areas. The research team holds a neutral view on the transaction, estimating CPAXT's 2026 profit at 9.5 billion baht, growth of about 1.8% from 2025, and continuing to expand in 2027 by about 14.3% to roughly 11 billion baht.

Yuanta Securities said a depression caused rainfall to accelerate, triggering flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas over the past weekend, sparking panic and demand to stockpile essential goods. However, because this round lacked the additional pressure of northern runoff and high sea tides seen in 2011, conditions in many areas eased quickly, especially in inner Bangkok. The research team assesses the impact on investment sentiment as relatively limited, similar to the cases of Japan or South Korea, where situations eased quickly and barely affected investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic impact at a maximum of about 10 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP, which is considered not large. The research team therefore maintains its EPS forecast for this year at 103 baht per share. The sector directly affected is insurance, from claims during the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, while sectors expected to be slightly affected are finance and commercial banks, from measures to help debtors. Sectors that may gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs are home improvement, construction materials, and retail and wholesale of essential goods, such as GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, as well as telecom operators ADVANC and TRUE, from data usage and work-from-home measures.

Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to swing within a range of 1,580 to 1,630 points this week, after the index returned to stand above 1,600 points last week, supported by Fitch's upgrade of Thailand's outlook from Negative to Stable, strong August export figures, and buying in DELTA on the recovery of global technology stocks. On Friday, the Thai market closed at 1,607.63 points, up 0.32%, driven by heavy buying in electronics and construction. For today, the brokerage estimates the SET Index range at 1,590 to 1,620 points, reflecting short-term negative sentiment from weekend flooding in Thailand and lingering geopolitical risks. It noted that US-Iran geopolitical risk remains a key factor supporting a recovery in oil prices and could add pressure on inflation, the US dollar and bond yields. Domestically, investors must monitor the flood situation, which could weigh on short-term sentiment. Statistics on Thai floods from 2006 to 2024 show the SET fell an average of about 1% in the one month after such events, but the impact this time is expected to be limited, so the pullback is seen as an opportunity to accumulate. On key economic factors, investors should watch ISM and PMI readings, US employment and unemployment figures, and US PCE and Core PCE, which will affect the direction of Fed policy. This week's strategy therefore focuses on stocks with good earnings growth prospects and low risk, with ADVANC, BCH, CPALL and STECON chosen as the top stocks of the week. It set a base price for CPALL at 57.20 baht with a buy recommendation, expecting 2026 profit to grow 9% year on year, and a base price for ADVANC at 385.34 baht, viewing the stock's pullback as bringing its valuation back to an attractive level and lifting its dividend yield to 4.8%.

Pi Securities said in a strategy analysis that the current flood situation is far removed from 2011, because in 2011 Thailand faced La Niña with above-normal rainfall that covered as many as 74 provinces, including economic zones and especially the industrial estates around Ayutthaya. But the current round pressures only some areas of Bangkok and nearby provinces, with water levels starting to recede and government agencies assessing that travel is close to returning to normal. In the short term, the impact on tourism and consumption is seen as slight, because part of the effect is offset by a boost from food stockpiling. Statistics from 2011 show that the groups that outperformed during the event were Healthcare at -1.4%, ICT at -5.1%, REIT at -7.5% and Commerce at -12.6%, while the underperformers were PETRO at -43%, PACK at -42% and ETRON at -34%. But one month after the situation eased, the outperformers were PETRO at +32%, construction materials at +22% and Pack at +18%. Pi Securities recommends buying CPALL with a target of 61 baht, seeing same-store sales growth and profit in the second half of 2026 as not much affected by the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, based on same-store sales growth in June 2026 that held steady year on year, together with gradually improving consumer purchasing power. It also recommends buying TU with a target of 15.4 baht, as the second half of 2026 has several positives: the peak export period, a weaker baht, and Britain cutting its import tax on Thai tuna to 0% from 24%, which will support continued revenue growth.

Analysts at Trinity Securities assess that the flash flooding in Bangkok over the past weekend could create sentiment pressure on insurance stocks, especially companies with auto and property insurance portfolios that may face rising claim costs and loss reserves, such as TIPH and THRE. In addition, groups tied to people's mobility, including shopping malls and restaurants such as CRC and CPN, as well as mass transit operators like BEM and BTS, may be affected by a short-term drop in traffic. Conversely, Trinity sees a chance of positive sentiment for consumer staples retail stocks, such as convenience store operator CPALL and hypermarkets BJC and CPAXT, which may see short-term demand for stockpiling goods, as well as the home improvement and construction materials sector, which may benefit from post-flood purchasing demand, such as HMPRO and TOA.

Yuanta Securities assesses that the SET Index is likely to hold steady, with support at 1,600 points and resistance at 1,610 points. The market leaders remain the anti-oil group, namely power plants, packaging, and transport, while upstream energy and refinery stocks may consolidate as crude oil prices weaken for a fifth consecutive day, down another 2%, following news of a return to diplomatic negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran proposing to open the strait within 7 days in exchange for the United States reducing military and economic pressure. As for retail stocks, which have underperformed for a long time, a rotational rebound is expected after pressure from the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme eased, with the Cabinet meeting extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure by another 2 months with a 1,000 baht contribution, which the market had already anticipated, and is therefore seen as neutral on that conclusion. Retail and wholesale stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC are expected to rebound in rotation. The factor to watch is the joint meeting between the Chinese and US presidents on September 24, which is still seen as neutral, with no concrete conclusion expected.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said that in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Thai capital market has an interesting issue arising from CAPPED WEIGHT index rebalancing. The SET50 index has a rule capping any single stock's weight at no more than 10%, creating a MEAN REVERSION phenomenon: when large-cap stocks decline in price, their FLOATING WEIGHT falls, for example DELTA dropping from 10% to 7.28%. When the end-of-quarter REBALANCE arrives, PASSIVE FUNDs must buy the stocks that fell heavily to top their weights back up to 10%, and sell stocks that have risen or whose weight exceeds 10%. The research team calculated the 10 stocks that will be added to in the fourth-quarter 2026 round, with DELTA benefiting the most from the top-up back to 10% from 7.28%, followed by MRDIYT, MINT, THAI, TFG, BANPU, ADVANC, CPN, CPALL and AOT. This group is expected to see price support from PASSIVE FUND money flows before October.

Kasikorn Thai Securities said in a Thai equity strategy analysis for the fourth quarter of 2026 that Thailand is entering a new upward investment cycle, driven by data center investment and the new Power Development Plan, or PDP2026. It raised its target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 index target under the assumption of market earnings per share of 105 points in 2027 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times, which is in line with the long-term average. Kasikorn Thai Securities expects electricity generating capacity serving data center demand in Thailand to rise to roughly 5 to 7 gigawatts by 2030, following the expansion of data center operators and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. For its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, Kasikorn Thai Securities divided its approach into two main themes and selected five standout stocks: BBL, DELTA, BGRIM, SCGP and CPALL. The first theme covers stocks that benefit from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, while the second focuses on stocks whose earnings are likely to recover and which can pass on costs, namely SCGP and CPALL.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

The Research team at Bualuang Securities says the retail sector still has growth drivers from structural margin expansion, which is expected to be a key driver of profits through 2027, supported by procurement efficiency, inventory management, and an improving sales mix. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to rise 9% year on year even as same-store sales hold steady, with margin expansion helping profit grow faster than sales on a continuing basis, and improved profitability also stems from more efficient expense management. The three standout stocks, CPALL, CRC, and CPN, stand out for both gross margin expansion and an improving ratio of selling and administrative expenses to sales. CPALL trades at a 2027 PER of just 12 times, while CRC benefits directly from tourist spending, and CPN will gain additional revenue from existing shopping malls from tourist spending. The Research team assigns an OVERWEIGHT rating to the retail sector, overweighting essential and discretionary retail and underweighting home improvement and decoration retail, given limited profit growth opportunities in 2027 after the temporary boost from margin expansion begins to fade.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) issued an analysis of CP All Public Company Limited, or CPALL, taking a positive view on this year's second-half profit outlook, which is expected to keep expanding, supported by same-store sales growth, or SSSG, of about 2% in the third quarter of 2026 on hot weather, extended alcohol sales hours, and tourist numbers. The fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to get a boost from the high season and economic stimulus measures. The research team estimates 2026 revenue could grow 2% year on year toward its target, driven by the opening of 700 new branches and SSSG of about 1.5% to 2.0%. It also noted that ALL PharmaSee, an online professional pharmacist consultation service available through the 7App of 7-Eleven, is an upside to margins, given a gross profit margin of about 40% in the pharmaceutical group, higher than the 28% for general products, and this is not yet included in its estimates. The research team maintained its full-year 2026 profit forecast at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, and its 2027 forecast at 35 billion baht, up 6% year on year, while keeping a Buy rating on CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht. The stock traded at 44.50 baht in the morning, down 0.25 baht, or 0.56%, with turnover of 379.27 million baht.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

TACC has launched its new Signature Herbal Refresh menu to boost second-half sales. Chatchawee Wattanasuk, Chief Executive Officer of T.A. Consumer Public Company Limited, or TACC, said the company places consistent emphasis on developing new menus to create variety and offer more choices to consumers. The menu blends the intensity of an Americano with All Select's proprietary orange juice formula, adding a fizzy lift for a fragrant, sweet-and-sour, refreshing taste that is easy to drink. It is on sale starting today at 7-ELEVEN stores nationwide that carry All Select. Chatchawee said that bringing new products and flavors into the portfolio will give consumers more choices and make the sales channel more appealing, while also supporting sales growth over the remainder of the year.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Bualuang Securities outlined a tactical strategy based on data through August 18, noting that although the SET has climbed back to around 1,600 points from 1,260 points at the end of last year, this year-to-date rally has been highly concentrated. The SET is up 26.7% year-to-date, or 28.7% when measured by market capitalization, yet the median gain is only 7.6%, and just 24.2% of all stocks have managed to beat the market, even though 64.5% delivered positive returns. The top ten stocks driving the index accounted for more than 62% of the gains, with DELTA alone contributing 26.5%. Leader-group share prices have risen far faster than their earnings, delivering an average return of 51.1% against profit growth of 25.7%, while non-leader stocks returned only 18.3% despite similar profit growth of 24.0%, because the average PER of the leaders rose 18.6% while that of non-leaders fell 4.9%. On 2026 earnings estimates, the leader group is expected to grow 28.6%, but in 2026 the market expects earnings to decline 5.0% in 2027, and leaders trade at a 2026 PER 115% higher than non-leader SET50 stocks. The expensive valuations are concentrated mainly in DELTA. If PTTGC and DELTA are excluded, and the restructured GULF and BANPU are left out, six leader stocks remain trading at a 2026 PER of just 11.66 times, below the 13.10 times of SET50 ex-leaders, even though their earnings are expected to grow 25.6% versus 15.3%. The strategy from here, therefore, is to find gap-closing stocks that the market has yet to value, screening for SET50 names that have lagged the market and remain cheaply valued relative to their history but still have supportive fundamentals, blending growth groups that support low valuations with quality-on-sale names. The five final picks are PTT, CPALL, OSP, BDMS and MINT as the standout stocks for this investment theme.