Thai Union Group Public Company Limited manufactures and sells frozen, chilled, and canned seafood in Thailand and internationally. It operates through four segments: Ambient Seafood; Frozen and Chilled Seafood and Related Businesses; Pet Food; and Value-Added and Other Businesses. The company offers seafood products under brands such as Chicken of the Sea, Genova, John West, Petit Navire, King Oscar, and others. It also produces pet food, marine ingredients, animal feeds, and provides packaging, printing, and other services. Formerly known as Thai Union Frozen Products Public Company Limited, it changed its name in September 2015. Founded in 1977, it is headquartered in Mueang Samut Sakhon, Thailand.
TU: strong Q3 profit and dividends offset by negative credit outlook and tuna cost spike
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Q3 profit growth and high dividend yield Analysts expect TU's Q3 2026 normal profit to rise 13-17% from a year earlier, with a dividend yield of 5.7-7%. Five brokers recommend buying with targets of 13.90-16 baht. Higher profit and dividends make the stock more attractive, supporting the price.
This is the main new positive driver for TU's price this period.
Tris cuts credit outlook to negative Tris kept TU's A+ rating but changed the outlook to negative, saying debt will fall more slowly than expected and stay above 5 times EBITDA for 2-3 years. TU is also issuing 12 billion baht of bonds. A negative outlook raises borrowing concerns and can weigh on the share price.
This is a new risk that can pressure TU's valuation and financing costs.
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Tuna prices surge, squeezing margins Tuna prices jumped 34-42% from a year earlier in August-September, raising raw material costs. Analysts expect this to cut Q4 gross margin by about 0.5%. Higher costs reduce profit unless TU can pass them on, which pressures the stock.
This is a new cost headwind that directly affects TU's profitability.
Weak baht and new growth initiatives The baht at 33.68 per dollar helps TU because most sales are exports. TU also launched a new tuna-based health ingredient line and appointed senior executives to drive its 2030 strategy. These support future revenue and profit, helping the share price.
These are new positive factors supporting TU's earnings outlook.
LHSEC recommends buying TU with a target of 14.80 baht and GULF with a target of 72 baht
Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, setting a target price for TU at 14.80 baht, with support estimated at 12.40/12.60 baht and resistance at 13.20/13.5 baht, and a target price for GULF at 72 baht, with support estimated at 58.5/60.0 baht and resistance at 62.75/63.5 baht. For TU, higher tuna costs are pressuring gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2026 after September tuna prices rose 42% year on year, expected to hit gross margin by about 50 basis points before gradually recovering in the first quarter of 2027 in line with the downward trend in tuna prices. Core profit in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to grow 12-15% year on year and 2-4% quarter on quarter on higher sales from product price adjustments, strong pet food demand, and improved mixed products, while gross margin recovers year on year but slows quarter on quarter from a high base in the previous quarter. GULF has a strong long-term outlook from the gradual commercial operation of power plants, especially renewable energy, the expansion of its data center business, for which GULF has readiness at a level of 2,000 megawatts, as well as profit sharing from ADVANC that continues to grow, and it is expected to benefit from the new PDP 2026 plan amid rising electricity demand, which increases opportunities for new power generation capacity that GULF is highly ready to bid for, including new M&A deals for power plants overseas. Normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 weakened quarter on quarter on the absence of KBANK dividend income but still grew strongly year on year on profit sharing from ADVANC and new renewable energy projects in Thailand.
Globlex Sees Thai Stocks Sideways Down in October, Range 1,520-1,600 Points, Favors Home-Repair and Export Plays
Globlex Securities, or GBS, expects the Thai stock index in October 2026 to move in a volatile Sideway Down pattern, with a trading range of 1,520-1,600 points. The main pressure comes from global WTI crude oil prices surging past 100 dollars per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, military confrontations in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with OPEC+ production controls, before prices fell back below 90 dollars per barrel after G7 intervention and Saudi Arabia helping to cool the rally. Miss Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Globlex Securities, said inflation pressure prompted the Bank of Japan to raise its policy interest rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, while investors worry the FED may raise rates another one to two times this year after already hiking once. The market also faced net foreign capital outflows of about 20,000-25,000 million baht in September and temporary impact from flooding, which Kasikorn Research Center estimated caused preliminary damage of 7,000-17,000 million baht. Mr Watcharain Jongyanyong, Director of the Research Department at Globlex Securities, recommended an investment strategy in two groups of standout stocks: stocks benefiting from post-flood repairs, recommending GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC and DRT, and export stocks with continued growth prospects, recommending STA, TEGH, NER, AAI, ITC, TU, CCET, HANA, KCE and DELTA.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive Globlex recommends GLOBAL among stocks benefiting from post-flood home repairs, implying higher demand for its building materials.
HANA.BK · Demand · Positive HANA is named among export stocks with continued growth prospects recommended by Globlex.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive HMPRO is recommended as a beneficiary of post-flood repair demand for home products.
ITC.BK · Demand · Positive i-Tail (ITC) is listed among export stocks with continued growth prospects recommended by Globlex.
KCE.BK · Demand · Positive KCE is named among export stocks with continued growth prospects recommended by Globlex.
NER.BK · Demand · Positive Named among export stocks with continued growth prospects recommended by Globlex.
Kasikorn Research says rubber prices surge 9%, boosting STA and TEGH while pressuring livestock names TU and ITC
Kasikorn Securities reported that natural rubber prices have improved, with the SICOM TSR20 price rising 9% over two weeks to 2.58 dollars per kilogram, driven by tight supply from unfavourable weather, rain disrupting tapping in Thailand, declining rubber stocks in Qingdao, and supply risks from the El Nino phenomenon as the fourth quarter of 2026 approaches. The quarter-to-date average price is up 48% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter, a positive factor for STA and TEGH. Meanwhile, the average tuna price in September stood at 2,275 dollars per tonne, up 8.3% month on month, due to low catch volumes after the end of the seasonal fishing restriction period, low stock levels, and higher fuel and logistics costs. This is expected to weigh on the profitability of TU and ITC, though tuna prices are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Thai pig prices fell 2.9% to 68.38 baht per kilogram, while broiler prices were flat at 44 baht per kilogram, as heavy rain and flooding hit consumer spending. Pig prices in Vietnam fell 3.7% to 55,833 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, and pig prices in China fell 3.8% to 10.3 yuan per kilogram, a negative for CPF and TFG. Domestic animal feed costs rose, with Thai feed corn prices up 0.5% to 9.93 baht per kilogram and domestic soybean meal prices up 4.1% to 19.1 baht per kilogram, while CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices fell 1.9% to 12.8 dollars per bushel and 2.8% to 345 dollars per tonne respectively, following high US production estimates.
TTB Wealth Says Weak Baht at 33.68 Supports 9 Export and Tourism Stocks
TTB Wealth stated that the widening gap between Thai and US bond yields has pressured the baht to weaken, recently standing at 33.68 THB/USD, causing foreign fund flows to continue flowing out. However, the weaker baht benefits several groups. The electronics export group gains from both the weak baht and strong order volumes; preferred stocks are DELTA, KCE, and HANA. The food export group stands out for high dividends and still-laggard prices; preferred stocks are TU and ITC. The tourism group benefits from entering the high season for tourism; preferred stocks are AOT, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, making a total of 9 beneficiary stocks.
ASPS recommends investing in DRs on global tech stocks and Thai stocks to ride the weak baht
Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Investment strategy, highlighting DRs linked to global technology stocks such as the Optical, CPU & AI Server, Semi Equipment, Cloud and Power groups, alongside Thai stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and the high season. Analysts note that the direction of US Federal Reserve policy continues to pressure the baht. If the terminal interest rate sits at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate weaker in a range of 35-37 baht per US dollar, or depreciate 4-10%, which is positive for the hospital group that treats foreign patients, such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9, as well as the tourism group like AOT, THAI and CENTEL, and the export group like TU, ITC and CPF. For the five standout stocks and interesting DRs, they include SHOP06, whose third-quarter earnings trend remains strong on the back of bringing AI to boost trading volume on its platform; MRVL06, which gets a boost from its Investor Day, where new technology is expected to be unveiled; ITC, which benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in the fourth quarter of 2026; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently, with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated; and BH, whose revenue and patient numbers from the Middle East are recovering strongly, while the stock still has high upside. On fund flows, although foreign investors still hold Thai stocks including NVDRs amounting to 36.5% of market value, cumulative net buying since the start of the year has fallen from a peak of 75 billion baht to just 18 billion baht, after more than 50 billion baht in net selling over the past two months. However, in the latest trading session, foreign investors began switching to net buying through the NVDR channel to the tune of 2.66 billion baht, reflecting selective accumulation of individual stocks expected to post fourth-quarter 2026 earnings growth to capture the high season.
BH.BK · Monetary · Positive Weak baht (Fed policy pressuring THB to 35-37/USD) is positive for hospitals treating foreign patients, with BH revenue and Middle East patient numbers recovering strongly.
ITC.BK · Monetary · Positive ITC benefits from the weak baht and is awaiting progress on closing its merger deal in Q4 2026.
CENTEL.BK · Monetary · Positive CENTEL is named among tourism stocks benefiting from the weakening baht and high season.
CPF.BK · Monetary · Positive CPF is named among export stocks that benefit from the weakening baht.
PR9.BK · Monetary · Positive PR9 is named among hospitals treating foreign patients that benefit from the weakening baht.
TRUE.BK · Capital · Positive TRUE's Q3 2026 profit is expected to expand prominently with an interim dividend of 0.15 baht anticipated.
Asia Plus names 10 standout stocks set to benefit from a weak baht
Asia Plus Securities said 10 standout stocks will benefit from the trend of a continuing weaker baht, divided into hospital groups that benefit from foreign patients, namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; tourism groups that make it easier for foreign tourists to spend, namely AOT, THAI and CENTEL; and export groups that convert revenue back into baht at a higher rate, namely TU, ITC and CPF. The research department said the spread between the 10-year bond yield and Thailand's policy rate remains below its historical average, reflecting that the market still sees no clear signal of a change in interest rate direction. Meanwhile, factors from the United States, from the Fed's perspective, continue to pressure the baht. If the Fed's interest rate stands at 4.5%, the baht will fluctuate in the range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar, or weaken from the current level by about 4% to 10%, if the end of the Fed's interest rate cycle has not yet arrived. On Thailand's water situation, the latest data indicates that many large reservoirs have water volumes exceeding capacity or near critical levels, such as Pa Sak Jolasid Dam at 110%, Nong Pla Lai Dam at 105% and Kaeng Krachan Dam at 102%. Meanwhile, medium and small reservoirs in many provinces, such as Chonburi, Trat, Ubon Ratchathani, Phrae and Phayao, have water volumes exceeding normal storage levels from 113% up to 159%. The point requiring closest monitoring is the area below Chao Phraya Dam, which has a water volume of 2,500 cubic meters per second, while it can hold 2,840 cubic meters per second.
5 brokerages recommend buying TU with targets of 13.90-16 baht, expecting 3Q profit of 1.309-1.420 billion baht
Analysts from 5 securities firms recommend "buying" shares of Thai Union Group (TU) with target prices in the range of 13.90 - 16 baht, expecting third-quarter profit of 1.309 - 1.420 billion baht, with strong growth, and believe that the surge in tuna costs has already passed its peak, with long-term positive factors beginning to provide support. Yuanta Securities raised its 2026 - 2027 profit forecasts by 18% and 4% respectively, and set a new target price of 16.00 baht, an upside gain of 29%, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.420 billion baht, up 4.3% QoQ and 17.4% YoY, on revenue of 35.882 billion baht. Krungsri Securities maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 15.50 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26F of about 1.349 billion baht and normal profit forecasts for 2026-2027F of 5.135 billion baht and 5.970 billion baht respectively. Maybank Securities recommends buying with a target price of 14.50 baht, expecting net profit in 3Q69 of 1.3 billion baht, with results scheduled for reporting on 2 November. Pi Securities assesses fair value at 15.4 baht, expecting normal profit in 3Q26 of 1.400 billion baht, and states that flooding has not affected the group's production in any way. Meanwhile, Trinity Securities gives a target price of 13.90 baht, expecting profit in 3Q69 of 1.309 billion baht, up 4% QoQ and flat YoY, with gross margin expected at 20.6%, and maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 4.7 billion baht.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Five brokerages recommend buying TU with target prices of 13.90-16 baht and raised 2026-2027 profit forecasts, expecting strong 3Q profit growth.
Brokers Expect TU's Q3/2026 Normal Profit to Grow 13-17%, With Dividend Yield of 5.7-7%
Analysts from 13 leading securities firms estimate that Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, will report normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 in the range of 1.349 billion to 1.42 billion baht, growing 13% to 17% year-on-year and 3% to 9% quarter-on-quarter. Total revenue is expected at 35.729 billion to 36 billion baht, growing 4% to 4.6% year-on-year, driven by the pet food business, where sales grew 12% to 17%, and the processed seafood business, which grew about 3% to 4%. The gross profit margin is expected at 20.3% to 20.7%, with a dividend yield of 5.7% to 7%. However, tuna prices surged to 2,200 to 2,300 US dollars per ton in August and September, up 34% to 42% year-on-year, and are expected to pressure fourth-quarter margins by about 0.5%. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses as a proportion of sales reached 14.6% to 14.8%, and a foreign exchange loss of about 100 million baht is expected in the third quarter of 2026.
Asia Plus recommends buying CPF and accumulating GFPT on rising meat prices
Asia Plus Securities reported that meat prices in Thailand moved in different directions in September 2026. The average pork price, based on CPF data, stood at 70 baht per kilogram, edging down 2.8% month-on-month as supply increased after small-scale farmers released pigs amid concerns over disease outbreaks, along with pressure from some smuggled imports. Meanwhile, broiler chicken prices rose slightly by 1.1% month-on-month to 45.50 baht per kilogram, the highest level in nearly four years, driven by a balance between demand and supply and continued strong export demand for chicken. On feed raw material prices in Thailand in September, corn weakened 1.5% month-on-month to 9.85 baht per kilogram as new output entered the market, while soybean meal rose 9.5% month-on-month to an average of 18.50 baht due to higher energy costs and volatile weather. Tuna prices in September averaged 2,275 dollars per tonne, up 8% month-on-month, due to higher costs of operating fishing vessels as oil prices rose, the FAD Ban measure prohibiting the use of fish aggregating devices, which reduced catch volumes, and the impact of weather and monsoons in fishing areas, causing tuna supply to tighten more than usual. The research team estimates that Thai meat prices in October may soften due to rain, flooding and the vegetarian festival, before gradually recovering in November and December when the tourism season and year-end festivals begin, which will support consumption. As for feed costs, although they tend to rise, especially soybean meal, large operators such as CPF have locked in raw material costs in advance through the first and second quarters of next year, which helps limit cost volatility to some extent. For the TU group, the research team estimates tuna prices are likely to weaken in the fourth quarter of 2026 as the normal fishing season begins, increasing the volume of fish caught. In addition, the effects of Super El Niño are pushing tuna schools to move more into the West and Central Pacific, an area where fishing is easier, so supply is likely to recover. The research team maintains an overweight stance on this group. For the land meat group, it assesses that both domestic pork and chicken prices in the third quarter of 2026 were higher quarter-on-quarter, while farming costs, although soybean meal rose, were offset by a larger decline in corn, and existing stocks also provided support, so the third quarter of 2026 is expected to be better than the second quarter of 2026. It therefore maintains a buy recommendation on CPF and advises accumulating GFPT when prices weaken. For the tuna and pet food business group, although it may face pressure from higher tuna costs, the research team still prefers ITC over TU due to its better ability to pass on costs to customers and an additional positive factor from an M&A deal expected to become clearer within the fourth quarter of 2026.
CPF.BK · Pricing · Positive Broiler chicken prices hit a near four-year high and CPF has locked in feed costs, supporting margins; pork price dip is offset by the favorable chicken and cost outlook.
GFPT.BK · Pricing · Positive Asia Plus recommends accumulating GFPT on rising broiler chicken prices, which reached their highest level in nearly four years.
TU.BK · Pricing · Negative Tuna prices rose 8% month-on-month on tighter supply, raising raw material costs for Thai Union, with prices expected to weaken later.
SEALECT teams up with Butterbear, invests 10 million baht to launch "Nong Noey" aiming for 13% sales growth
SEALECT announced a partnership with Butterbear to launch "Nong Noey" as a Friend of SEALECT, rolling out a 360-degree campaign under the concept Smart Protein for All that combines Character Collaboration and Fandom Marketing to expand its consumer base. In 2026, SEALECT aims to drive both sales and consumer penetration to grow 13%, backed by a marketing budget of more than 10 million baht. The campaign "Fit for All, Cute for All, the smart protein Nong Noey loves" comes with a TV commercial and special collection items. Buzz from the mommy fan community generated more than 500,000 organic engagements for the brand before the campaign's official launch. The SEALECT Tuna x Butterbear Limited Edition products include tuna steak with 28 to 30 grams of high-quality protein per can, tuna spread with crackers in a new yuzu flavor, and a premium set priced at 42 baht, sold exclusively at 7-Eleven. Meanwhile, the Big Pack Limited Edition SEALECT X Butterbear is limited to just 30,000 sets at 599 baht, sold exclusively at Makro and Lotus's. The SEALECT x Butterbear Italian Silk Scarf comes in three designs for shoppers who buy participating SEALECT products totaling 999 baht. SEALECT and Butterbear will also hold a "Meet & Cute with Nong Noey" event on November 9, 2026 at Sphere Gallery, EmSphere shopping center, with entry available through a lucky draw via purchase-accumulation and standout review activities from now until October 31, 2026.
TU.BK · Demand · Positive SEALECT (Thai Union's brand) partners with Butterbear and launches the 'Nong Noey' campaign with new limited-edition tuna products to expand its consumer base and drive 13% sales growth.
Pi expects Thai stocks to swing in 1,590-1,620 range, recommends hospitals, retail, energy to weather floods
Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.
Pie Securities Says Surging US Yields Point to 11 Beneficiary Stocks
Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.
Kasikornbank says Thailand-EU FTA is two-thirds done, decisive round on Sept 28 seen boosting exports and industrial estates
Kasikornbank Securities said Thailand is accelerating negotiations on a Thailand-EU FTA, which is now more than two-thirds complete, with a decisive round of talks set for September 28. It is also reviving the Thailand-UAE CEPA after a hiatus of more than three years. Both agreements would help expand exports, attract FDI and diversify markets toward Europe and the Middle East, though conclusions are still needed on sensitive issues covering agriculture, medicine and regulations. The research team views this as a positive for sentiment toward food exporters, autos, electronics and industrial estates such as CPF, TU, DELTA, KCE, HANA, AMATA and WHA, but the impact on earnings will become clear only after negotiations conclude and the agreements take effect.
AMATA.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA and UAE CEPA progress would attract FDI and boost industrial estate demand, with Amata named as a beneficiary.
CPF.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA would expand food exports, with CPF named as a beneficiary of the trade agreement.
DELTA.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA would expand electronics exports, with Delta named as a beneficiary of the trade agreement.
HANA.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA would expand electronics exports, with Hana named as a beneficiary of the trade agreement.
KCE.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA would expand electronics exports, with KCE named as a beneficiary of the trade agreement.
TU.BK · Tariff · Positive Thailand-EU FTA and Thailand-UAE CEPA progress would expand export markets for food exporters like Thai Union.
Pi Securities says this flood season is nothing like 2011, recommends buying CPALL and TU
Pi Securities said in a strategy analysis that the current flood situation is far removed from 2011, because in 2011 Thailand faced La Niña with above-normal rainfall that covered as many as 74 provinces, including economic zones and especially the industrial estates around Ayutthaya. But the current round pressures only some areas of Bangkok and nearby provinces, with water levels starting to recede and government agencies assessing that travel is close to returning to normal. In the short term, the impact on tourism and consumption is seen as slight, because part of the effect is offset by a boost from food stockpiling. Statistics from 2011 show that the groups that outperformed during the event were Healthcare at -1.4%, ICT at -5.1%, REIT at -7.5% and Commerce at -12.6%, while the underperformers were PETRO at -43%, PACK at -42% and ETRON at -34%. But one month after the situation eased, the outperformers were PETRO at +32%, construction materials at +22% and Pack at +18%. Pi Securities recommends buying CPALL with a target of 61 baht, seeing same-store sales growth and profit in the second half of 2026 as not much affected by the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, based on same-store sales growth in June 2026 that held steady year on year, together with gradually improving consumer purchasing power. It also recommends buying TU with a target of 15.4 baht, as the second half of 2026 has several positives: the peak export period, a weaker baht, and Britain cutting its import tax on Thai tuna to 0% from 24%, which will support continued revenue growth.
CPALL.BK · Capital · Positive Pi Securities recommends buying CPALL with a 61 baht target, citing steady same-store sales growth and limited impact from the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Pi Securities recommends buying TU with a 15.4 baht target on peak export period, weaker baht, and Britain cutting its tuna import tax to 0%.
TU expects continued growth in the second half of 2026, boosted by a weak baht and surging orders
Mr. Thiraphong Chansiri, Chief Executive Officer of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, said that the continued weakening of the baht is a clear positive factor, helping to support revenue from exports or overseas business, which accounts for roughly 88 to 89% of total revenue. The baht has weakened more than the company had previously estimated, further enhancing the competitiveness of the export sector in global markets. For its business outlook in the second half of 2026, TU expects continued growth on the back of an improved overall order picture, and it is maintaining its target of revenue growth of about 4 to 6% from the previous year, after generating revenue of approximately 65.8 billion baht in the first half of this year. As for the tariff discussions between the Thai and US governments, TU initially believes that the structure of import tariff rates in its main market, the United States, is unlikely to increase. On expansion strategy, the company continues to focus on overseas investment through its pet care business, via i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, and its economic animal food, or pet food, business, via Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited, which will expand investment in a project to build a shrimp feed production plant in Ecuador. Both groups are seen as drivers of new growth, or a new S-Curve, over the long term. Meanwhile, analysts at Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited recommend buying TU with a target price of 14.75 baht, because the business has passed the bottom of its restructuring. The transitional expense burden that had pressured its EBIT margin down to 4.6% in 2025 has ended, and a clear recovery is expected in 2027.
TU.BK · Demand · Positive TU expects continued growth in H2 2026 on an improved overall order picture, maintaining 4-6% revenue growth target.
TU.BK · Monetary · Positive A weaker baht boosts TU's export revenue, which is 88-89% of total revenue.
ITC.BK · Demand · Positive TU's pet care business via i-Tail is cited as a long-term new growth driver alongside continued order improvement.
TFM.BK · Capital · Positive Thai Union Feedmill will expand investment in a shrimp feed production plant in Ecuador, a long-term growth driver.
LH.BK · Capital · Positive Land and Houses Securities analysts recommend buying TU with a 14.75 baht target price, citing recovery after restructuring.
Bualuang flags strong year-end 2026, touts petrochemical and power stocks to lead
Mr. Wikit Thirawannarat, IAA, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Bualuang Securities, unveiled a portfolio-adjustment strategy for the final stretch of the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, recommending investors rotate among sectors in step with the market. Stocks with their main revenue from overseas remain the key driver, because domestic purchasing power alone is not enough to move the market. The groups that outperformed the market in the third quarter of 2026 were those tied to the global economy and commodities, including petrochemicals, refineries, shipping stocks such as RCL and PRM, agricultural and food-export names such as TVO, TU and ITC, and electronic components such as KCE and HANA. Meanwhile, groups tied to domestic consumption, such as telecoms ADVANC and TRUE and retailers CPALL and CPAXT, rose more slowly than the market. Three investment themes lead the way. First, refineries and petrochemicals, where supply is tight and global demand is strong, with TOP trading at a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.7 times and paying consistent dividends. Second, power plants, expected to be the star performer in the fourth quarter, driven by the build-out of data centers and production bases by foreign companies, clarity on direct PPA contracts, and the power development plan. Third, energy and technology infrastructure, which benefits from transmission systems, substations, smart grids, smart meters, rooftop solar and submarine cable projects. As for industrial estates, after a big run-up in the first and second quarters of 2026, they are expected to enter a period of consolidation and rebound within a sideways range. On external factors, the surge in bond yields worldwide is a highlight to watch; if yields start to fall, that would be a key turning point for the stock market. The Bank of Japan may keep raising rates through the middle of next year, ending at around 1.75 to 2.0 percent, South Korea at 3.5 percent, Europe at 3.0 percent in the first quarter of next year, and the US Federal Reserve may hike another one to two times. As for new US tariffs, the assessment is that they will target specific rival countries rather than be imposed across the board, so Thailand is likely to escape them and may even benefit from cheaper imported raw materials such as soybeans and soybean meal, which would lower animal-feed costs and support meat-export groups such as chicken and pork. On investment strategy, short-term traders are advised to rotate through sector rotation, alternating between banks and commodities, while long-term investors are advised to focus on infrastructure and power plants, with standout large-cap stocks capable of winning projects and co-investing in infrastructure being GULF and PTT.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Solar ▲Demand
TOP.BK · Supply · Positive Highlighted in the refinery/petrochemical theme where supply is tight and global demand strong, with TOP at ~0.7x P/B and consistent dividends.
ADVANC.BK · Demand · Negative ADVANC is grouped among domestic-consumption telecoms that rose more slowly than the market, as domestic purchasing power is insufficient.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Negative CPALL is listed among domestic-consumption retailers that underperformed the market due to weak domestic purchasing power.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Negative CPAXT is listed among domestic-consumption retailers that rose more slowly than the market amid weak domestic consumption.
KCE.BK · Demand · Positive Named among electronic components (KCE, HANA) that outperformed on global-economy/export demand.
PRM.BK · Demand · Positive Named among shipping stocks (RCL, PRM) that outperformed the market on global-economy exposure.
TRIS Ratings Affirms Thai Union at A+ but Revises Outlook to Negative
TRIS Ratings has affirmed the corporate rating and the rating of senior unsecured debentures of Thai Union Group, or TU, at A+, reflecting the company's strong business position as one of the world's leading producers of processed seafood, with production bases in 14 countries and a strong brand portfolio. In the first half of 2026, Thai Union recorded sales of 65.899 billion baht and a gross profit margin of 20.2%, up from the 18-19% level of recent years. As of June 2026, the company held cash and short-term investments of 14.5 billion baht and undrawn credit facilities of 26 billion baht, while its ratio of net interest-bearing debt to equity stood at 1.2 times, below the ceiling of no more than 2.0 times set out in its debenture covenants. However, TRIS Ratings has revised Thai Union's rating outlook to Negative from Stable, reflecting pressure on the financial ratios relevant to the rating and on progress in reducing debt. Miss Ratiporn Ratcharoen, Chief Financial Officer of Thai Union Group, said the affirmation of the A+ rating reflects the business's adaptability, its global operating network, and improved profitability. She added that the company recognises the debt-level issues raised by TRIS and is committed to steadily strengthening its financial position, focusing on increasing cash flow, managing working capital efficiently, allocating capital with discipline, and reducing debt levels, alongside driving balanced growth.
TU.BK · Capital · Negative TRIS affirmed Thai Union's A+ rating but revised the outlook to Negative on pressure on rating-relevant financial ratios and slow debt reduction.
Thai Union raises this year's revenue growth target to 4-6%, presses ahead with investments in the US, China and India
Thai Union Group, or TU, has revised its revenue growth forecast upward from 3-5% to 4-6%. Chief Executive Officer Thiraphong Chansiri said that if the company can sustain growth at that level amid current global economic conditions, it would consider that a satisfactory pace. The company continues to push ahead with overseas investment, seeing continued growth potential in the US, Chinese and Indian markets, and will weigh investments in line with the opportunities each country offers. On investment plans, the company expects its overall capital expenditure to remain at roughly the same level, with no plans for a significant increase, though it is ready to consider additional investment as appropriate if new business opportunities arise. Its priority remains the pet food business, one of its main units with growth potential. At the same time, it has plans to invest in the shrimp feed business in Ecuador, which is currently underway. As for i-Tail Corporation, or ITC, which operates the pet food business, it will need a clear investment plan for the next three to four years, with new investments expected to gradually emerge in the future.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Thai Union raised its revenue growth target to 4-6% and presses ahead with overseas investments in the US, China, India and shrimp feed in Ecuador.
ITC.BK · Capital · Positive i-Tail's pet food unit is a priority with a clear investment plan for the next 3-4 years and new investments expected.
Phillip Picks 17 Standout Stocks to Benefit from Thailand's August 2026 Exports Growing 24.3%
The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.
9105.TW · Demand · Positive Phillip Securities named CCET among standout industrial-product export stocks benefiting from Thailand's 24.3% export growth, with computers/electronics parts up 42.1%.
AAI.BK · Demand · Positive Named by Phillip Securities among standout stocks in the agro-industrial export group (pet food, canned/processed seafood) that grew in August 2026.
AMATA.BK · Demand · Positive Named among standout industrial estate stocks expected to benefit from Thailand's strong August 2026 export growth.
BGRIM.BK · Demand · Positive Named among standout utility stocks seen benefiting from Thailand's expanding exports and related industrial activity.
CPF.BK · Demand · Positive Named among standout stocks in the agricultural product export group (processed chicken, shrimp) that grew in August 2026.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive Named among standout industrial product export stocks (electronics/parts) that posted strong August 2026 growth.
Kanthara Says US Roadshow Supports Fund Flow Returning to Thailand, Recommends Banks, Exporters, Energy
Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director of Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, disclosed that the roadshow in the United States, meetings with foreign institutional investors, and cooperation between Thai capital market agencies and the New York Stock Exchange are positive factors helping foreign investors pay more attention to Thailand, and may mark the beginning of drawing foreign capital flows, or Fund Flow, back into the Thai stock market after a period of heavy outflows. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Thai capital market and the New York Stock Exchange on the listing of securities in more than one market, or Dual Listing, is an important development that will help increase liquidity and raise the standards of the Thai capital market. For short-term strategy, Kanthara views that the market remains highly volatile due to US government bond yields rising to around 5.25% and oil prices that remain high. He recommends monitoring Brent crude oil at around 102 dollars per barrel; if it can hold above this level, prices may continue to rise, but for concerns to ease, prices should fall to around 91 to 93 dollars per barrel. He also recommends gradually accumulating PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, when oil prices weaken, and holds a positive view on commercial banks, giving a fair value for Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, at 240 baht. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, he views that commercial banks remain continuously strong, while the export sector is interesting, especially Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, and I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC. Meanwhile, the hospital sector has an opportunity to recover seasonally, with attention on Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS. He assesses that the Thai stock market is still more suitable for short-term trading than for chasing prices, with a key resistance level around 1,612 to 1,620 points, and that a strong break above this level would require new positive factors to support it.
Land and Houses recommends buying ITC with a target of 19.5 baht and TU with a target of 14.75 baht
Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, ITC and TU, setting a target price for ITC at 19.5 baht, with support levels estimated at 16.0 and 16.3 baht and resistance at 17.0 and 18.0 baht. It expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to mark the highest point of the first three quarters, growing both year on year and quarter on quarter within the target range, driven mainly by sales volume from the US market in the Sachet product group and from major customers. It also expects the gross profit margin to hold at the middle of the target range of 23 to 25 percent, supported by the share of premium products exceeding 50 percent, even though SG&A is under temporary pressure. For TU, it recommends buying with a target of 14.75 baht, with support estimated at 12.6 and 13.0 baht and resistance at 14.0 and 14.8 baht, stating that the company has passed the bottom of its restructuring and is entering a new profit cycle after the transitional expense burden that had pressured its EBIT margin, which fell to 4.6 percent in 2025, and its ROE has begun to bottom out. This supports a recovery in sales and margin performance, and it sees 2027 as a major turning point driven by growth in branded products, cost control, and investment discipline.
ITC.BK · Capital · Positive Land and Houses Securities recommends buying ITC with a 19.5 baht target price, citing Q3 2026 revenue growth and stable 23-25% gross margin.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Land and Houses Securities recommends buying TU with a 14.75 baht target, saying it has passed the bottom of restructuring and is entering a new profit cycle.
Phillip Picks TISCO and TU as Top Stocks, Expects 3Q26 Profit to Grow 5.3%
Phillip Securities named TISCO and TU as its top stock picks for September 24, 2026, recommending a buy on both. For TISCO, the research team expects third-quarter 2026 profit of 1.8 billion baht, up 5.3% year on year and 3.3% quarter on quarter. Although interest income will decline due to lower loan rates, reduced interest costs and provisioning, together with expected higher fee income, should support profit. It also expects a 2026 dividend of 7.75 baht per share, a dividend yield of 6%, making it the bank with the highest payout ratio in the sector at 90%. As for TU, second-half earnings are expected to keep expanding, helped by lower average raw shrimp prices that support margins in the frozen food business, while tuna costs are expected to peak in the third quarter of 2026 before declining in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company also benefits fully from the suspension of the United Kingdom's import tax on tuna through 2028. After a strong first-half performance, the company raised its 2026 sales growth target to 4-6% from 3-4% and lifted its full-year gross margin target to 19.5-20.5% from 19.0-20.0%, especially for premium pet food and ready-to-eat seafood products that can pass on costs efficiently.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip Securities names TISCO a top pick, forecasting 3Q26 profit up 5.3% YoY and a 6% dividend yield with the sector's highest 90% payout ratio.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Phillip Securities names TU a top pick, expecting H2 earnings growth and noting it raised its 2026 sales growth and gross margin targets.
TU.BK · Tariff · Positive TU benefits fully from the suspension of the United Kingdom's import tax on tuna through 2028.
Kiatnakin Phatra upgrades TU to Buy with 16 baht target, sees average 16% annual profit growth over three years
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, has upgraded its recommendation on Thai Union Group, or TU, from Hold to Buy and raised its target price from 13.30 baht to 16.00 baht, seeing attractive upside from the current share price of 12.40 baht. TU shares last traded at 13.20 baht, up 0.50 baht or 3.94%, on turnover of 134.70 million baht. The research team noted that TU holds a 79.3% stake in i-Tail Corporation, or ITC, and that after subtracting the value of the ITC stake from TU's total market value, the remaining core business, excluding ITC, is worth about 7.0 billion baht, or a P/E of just 3.5 times for 2026. Although that business generated 42% of total profit in 2025, it is expected to rise to 47% in 2028. KKPS expects the net margin of the ex-ITC business to increase from 1.7% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2028, supporting average earnings per share growth of 18% a year over the next three years, while ROA rises from 2.6% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2028. It raised its normalized earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by an average of 16%. On dividends, TU is expected to offer a yield of 5.9% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, while the estimated P/E falls from 10.02 times in 2026 to 7.73 times in 2028. KKPS also issued a research report on ITC in parallel and upgraded it to Buy as well, given the two companies' linked shareholding structure and operating results.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive KKPS upgraded TU from Hold to Buy and raised its target price from 13.30 to 16.00 baht on higher normalized earnings forecasts.
ITC.BK · Capital · Positive KKPS upgraded ITC to Buy in parallel, citing the linked shareholding structure and operating results with TU.
Asia Plus highlights agri-food stocks, ITC leads the group on a weak baht
Asia Plus Securities assessed that agri-food stocks outperformed the market yesterday, led by ITC up 7.27%, followed by TU up 5.65%, CPF up 2.70% and GFPT up 1.90%, compared with the SET which rose 1.32%. The gains are expected to have been supported by the baht's weakening trend in line with the US dollar's appreciation after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in more than three years and signalled continued tightening of monetary policy, bringing food exporter stocks back into focus. Meanwhile, second-half 2026 earnings are expected to recover from the first half of 2026 on seasonal factors in seafood, pet food and chicken meat exports. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating for the agriculture and food sector, with ITC still the top pick on the back of strong second-half 2026 profit prospects, product price increases and the opportunity for further growth through future M&A. GFPT and CPF benefit from the upcycle in meat, pork and chicken prices and still-strong chicken export prospects, while TU is supported by a recovery in operating efficiency as well as the potential benefit from Super El Niño conditions, which could help lower tuna costs in 2027.
ITC.BK · Demand · Positive Top pick with strong H2 2026 profit prospects, product price increases and future M&A growth; led agri-food group up 7.27%.
CPF.BK · Demand · Positive Benefits from upcycle in meat, pork and chicken prices and still-strong chicken export prospects, per Asia Plus overweight call.
GFPT.BK · Demand · Positive Named as benefiting from the upcycle in meat, pork and chicken prices and strong chicken export prospects.
TU.BK · Supply · Positive Supported by recovery in operating efficiency and potential Super El Niño conditions that could lower tuna costs in 2027.
Food stocks gain from weak baht; TU, CPF, BTG, GFPT stand out with targets of 16-25.50 baht
Analysts say the baht is likely to weaken clearly after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting and the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25%, while Thailand's policy rate stands at only 1%, making the interest rate differential a risk of capital outflows and pressuring the baht to weaken further. Prapak Sirivattanaket, Managing Director of Merchant Partners Securities, said on the MorningBrain program on the Tunhoon channel on September 17 that the rapidly strengthening US dollar is a factor pressuring regional currencies. Meanwhile, analysts from InnovestX Securities said the baht's depreciation is a positive factor for food stocks with export exposure, especially Thai Union Group, or TU, Charoen Pokphand Foods, or CPF, Betagro, or BTG, and GFPT. The research team recommends buying TU with a target of 16.00 baht, expecting second-half 2026 profit to grow from the first half, when margin was about 19.8%, after the company raised this year's sales growth target to 4-6% from 3-4%, and expects the full-year 2026 margin to rise to 19.5-20.5%. Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommend buying CPF with a target of 24.20 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier on a recovery in domestic pork and chicken businesses, strong chicken export growth, and the weaker baht. It also recommends buying BTG with a target of 25.50 baht, estimating third-quarter 2026 normalized profit at about 1.4-1.6 billion baht, growing strongly from the previous quarter after pork and chicken prices rebounded sharply in a V-shape and as the export high season begins. It recommends buying GFPT with a target of 14.80 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier because domestic chicken prices rose clearly, with the latest Department of Internal Trade live chicken price up more than 10% from a year earlier, while farming costs held steady.
SFLEX Sees Order Surge, Adds 10 Spout Pouch Machines, Targets 2026 Revenue of 2.1 Billion Baht
Starflex Public Company Limited, or SFLEX, a leading domestic manufacturer and distributor of flexible plastic packaging, disclosed that its operating performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 is expected to continue growing from the second quarter of 2026, which set a new record high. The company has invested in 10 additional machines for producing and attaching spout caps, on top of its existing 11 machines, to handle orders that have nearly doubled. As for its joint venture with Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, under Star Union Packaging, in which SFLEX holds a 51% stake, the project was delayed by about six months due to the conflict situation around the Strait of Hormuz. However, TU has now approved all orders and will begin gradually sending orders starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the first SKU in the packaging group for salmon products expected to generate revenue of approximately 100 million baht. For 2026, SFLEX is maintaining its revenue target at approximately 2.1 billion baht, up from about 1.9 billion baht in 2025.
SFLEX.BK · Demand · Positive SFLEX's spout pouch orders have nearly doubled, prompting investment in 10 additional machines and record Q2 2026 results with continued growth expected.
Star Union Packaging · Demand · Positive Star Union Packaging's JV project, delayed six months by Strait of Hormuz conflict, now has all orders approved by TU with first salmon SKU expected to generate ~100 million baht.
TU.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Union approved all orders for the Star Union Packaging JV and will begin sending orders in Q4 2026, starting with salmon packaging SKUs.
TU shares surge 7% as weak baht boosts exports; Bualuang says 2027 is the profit turning point
TU shares rose 7.26% to 13.30 baht, leading subsidiary ITC up 6.67% to 17.60 baht, supported by the baht weakening to 33.38-33.40 baht per US dollar and the onset of the export peak season. Meanwhile, Pi Securities is positive on Britain's move to cut import tariffs on Thai tuna to 0% from 24%, which should support revenue in the second half. Bualuang Securities said TU is entering a new profit cycle after its transition period begins to end, seeing 2027 as the turning point for profits, and raised its 2030 profit forecast by 30%, from 6.1 billion baht to 7.9 billion baht in an upside case, bringing ROE close to 15%, while maintaining a target price of 15.60 baht. The view aligns with TU's Investor Day in August 2026, led by Group Chief Executive Officer Thiraphong Chansiri and new Group Chief Financial Officer Ratiporn Ratcharoen, which indicated that TU is shifting from restructuring to harvesting benefits, with three main strategies over the next three years: expanding revenue, improving cost efficiency, and managing capital expenditure and cash flow cycles with greater discipline.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive Bualuang sees 2027 as profit turning point, raised 2030 profit forecast 30% and maintains 15.60 baht target price.
TU.BK · Monetary · Positive Baht weakening to 33.38-33.40/USD boosts TU's export competitiveness and revenue.
TU.BK · Tariff · Positive Britain cutting import tariffs on Thai tuna to 0% from 24% should support TU's second-half revenue.
ITC.BK · Demand · Positive Subsidiary ITC rose 6.67% alongside parent TU as weak baht and export peak season boost Thai seafood exports.
Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited · Capital · Neutral Bualuang Securities is cited for its positive analysis and target price on TU, not as a subject of the news.
Pi Securities Public Company Limited · Capital · Neutral Pi Securities is cited for its positive view on Britain's tuna tariff cut, not as a subject of the news.
Brokers: Fed's 0.25% Rate Hike Favors Bank, Export and Value Play Stocks
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive Fed's 0.25% rate hike is seen favoring commercial banks, with KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP named as standout picks.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Positive SCB is named among commercial banks expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Positive Named as a standout commercial-bank pick expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
KKP.BK · Monetary · Positive Named as a standout commercial-bank pick expected to benefit from the Fed's 0.25% rate hike.
PYLON.BK · Monetary · Positive PYLON is listed among construction materials and contractors benefiting from the rate-hike environment and softer crude oil prices.
STECON.BK · Monetary · Positive STECON is listed among construction materials and contractors seen benefiting from the rate-hike backdrop and softer crude oil prices.
InnovestX Unveils 4 Standout Stock Themes as SET Slips Below 1,600 Points
InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive Named as a stock benefiting from government policy on the draft PDP2026 plan and rooftop solar support.
AOT.BK · Regulation · Positive Listed among stocks supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus economic stimulus program.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Selected as a bank benefiting from high bond yields after the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5%, and also cited for dividend yield above 5%.
AP.BK · Regulation · Positive Named in both the high-dividend defensive theme and the laggard theme on expected H2 2026 earnings growth.
BCH.BK · Capital · Positive Included in the laggard theme on expectations its second-half 2026 earnings will grow year on year and versus H1.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus and Thai Tiew Thai Plus stimulus programs.
Pie Securities Says Tech Stocks Pressure Market, Recommends Clinging to 13 Value Stocks
Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.
GBS Expects SET to Swing Between 1,570 and 1,630 Points Amid Pressure from Surging Oil and US Inflation, Recommends Speculating on FTSE Rebalance Stocks
Global Securities, or GBS, assesses that the SET Index this week is likely to fluctuate, with a trading range of 1,570 to 1,630 points, amid pressure from WTI crude oil prices surging past 100 dollars per barrel and the US Producer Price Index, or PPI, for August rising 5.4 percent year-on-year, higher than analysts' expectations of 5.3 percent. As a result, investors have increased their weighting to 70 percent from 64 percent in expecting the FED to raise interest rates by 0.25 percent at its meeting on September 15-16. Meanwhile, the ECB decided to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent for the second time this year. On the domestic positive side, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has revised up its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.5 percent, benefiting from private investment and exports expected to grow 17.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance is considering extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus program by another one to two months, and the EV Board has approved excise tax measures to push the import tax on electric vehicles to three rates. Mr. Watcharaphon Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Global Securities, recommends speculating on stocks that benefit from the FTSE Rebalance index adjustment, effective at the closing price on September 18, 2026. In the Large Cap group, CPN enters and exits; in the Mid Cap group, CPN enters while BTS, LH, SCCC, and TU exit; in the Small Cap group, BTS, FTREIT, LH, SCCC, THAI, and TU enter while BLAND, SPCG, and TPIPP exit.
Red Lobster Closes 36 Restaurants, Cutting Footprint 7%
Red Lobster has closed 36 restaurants, leaving 484 locations listed as of September 8, 2026, a 7% reduction from the 520 locations the chain had at the end of 2025, according to Technomic data reported by National Restaurant News. At least 20 of those closures occurred in 2026, including the Times Square flagship in New York, which closed in June after 23 years, and a Tallahassee, Florida location that closed in May after 56 years. The closures continue a restructuring that began when Red Lobster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May 2024 after accumulating nearly $300 million in debt and shutting down approximately 130 restaurants, with court filings citing rising operating costs, declining consumer traffic, and significant financial losses. The company's $20 Ultimate Endless Shrimp promotion was identified as a major financial problem, contributing to an $11 million quarterly loss, and in May 2026 Red Lobster's creditors sued former CEO Paul Kenny and Thai Union Group, the company's former investor and seafood supplier, over the promotion. Red Lobster emerged from bankruptcy under new ownership by RL Investor Holdings LLC, and Adamolekun was appointed CEO in August 2024; systemwide sales declined 6.2% in 2025, and the company continues to evaluate its real estate portfolio, with additional closures possible at underperforming locations.
Red Lobster · Capital · Negative Red Lobster closed 36 restaurants (7% of footprint) amid its bankruptcy restructuring, with systemwide sales down 6.2% in 2025 and more closures possible.
TU.BK · Regulation · Negative Red Lobster's creditors sued Thai Union Group, its former investor and seafood supplier, over the Ultimate Endless Shrimp promotion.
Thai Government Aims to Cut US Tariffs to 10%, Boosting Agricultural Stocks
Asia Plus Securities stated that the Commerce Minister revealed that tariff negotiations with the US have made significant progress, with an expected conclusion within one week. The Thai government aims to reduce US tariffs to 10%, down from the current additional 12.5% imposed under Section 301 regarding forced labor. If successful, the agricultural and food sector will receive positive sentiment, especially ITC, which derives 60% of its revenue from the US, and TU, with a 40% share. Meanwhile, CPF and GFPT will benefit limitedly due to low chicken and pork exports to the US, but they will gain indirect benefits from the opening of corn and soybean meal import markets. The research department maintains an overweight recommendation and selects ITC as the top pick.
TU Expands Aquafeed Business in Ecuador Through New Subsidiary
Mr. Thiraphong Chansiri, President and CEO of Thai Union Group (TU), revealed that Thai Union Feedmill (TFM), a subsidiary in which TU holds 51%, has established a new subsidiary in Ecuador named Thai Union Feedmill Ecuador S.A.S. to support investment and expansion of the aquafeed business in the region. The company was registered on September 4, 2026, with an initial registered capital of 27 million US dollars, divided into 27 million ordinary shares at a par value of 1 US dollar per share. TFM holds 85.19% of the shares, while Avanti Feed Ltd. holds 11.11%, and Pacific Aqua Solution Pacsol S.A.S. holds 3.70%. The main objective is to invest in constructing a factory to operate businesses related to aquatic animals in Ecuador, which will enhance TFM's potential in international markets and create opportunities for long-term business expansion. Meanwhile, TFM plans to increase the registered capital of this subsidiary from 27 million US dollars to 30 million US dollars, along with adjusting the shareholder structure. After the capital increase, TFM will remain the major shareholder, but its stake will decrease from 85.19% to 76.67%, or 23 million shares out of a total of 30 million shares. Avanti Feed will hold 10%, and Fevalri S.A. will newly hold 10%, while Pacific Aqua Solution Pacsol S.A.S. will hold 3.33%.
TFM.BK · Capital · Positive TFM establishes Thai Union Feedmill Ecuador S.A.S. with $27M capital and plans to raise it to $30M, expanding its aquafeed investment.
TU.BK · Capital · Positive TU's 51%-held subsidiary TFM is investing in a new Ecuador aquafeed factory, expanding TU's regional business.
Bualuang Securities: 2Q26 Results Beat Expectations, Recommends Three Top Stocks BDMS-COM7-TU
Bualuang Securities reports that second-quarter 2026 results confirm that the impact from external factors was not as severe as feared. The Management Guidance Reliability Index (MGRI) rose to 53 points from 48 points in the previous quarter, marking the first time above 50 in two years. Sectors previously viewed with excessive caution, such as banks, energy, IT retail, and tourism, performed better than expected. Meanwhile, management remains positive on the outlook ahead, with the proportion of positive views for the third quarter of 2026 at approximately 49% and for 2026 increasing to about 44%. Analysts have also begun to reduce caution, with the proportion of conservative estimates falling to 33% from 40%, while aggressive estimates rose to 8% from 6%. Stocks with continued confidence include TRUE, AMATA, and WHAUP. Meanwhile, the power plant group has a more aggressive outlook, and there are some sectors where management is more positive than analysts, such as mid-to-small hospitals BCH/PR9, IT products COM7/SYNEX, and department stores CPN/CRC. However, the market still favors stock-picking over buying entire sectors. Therefore, we recommend quality stocks that are lagging in price and have potential for surprises, namely BDMS, COM7, and TU.
TU Enters New Profit Cycle, 2027 a Key Turning Point
Bualuang Securities views that TU is entering a new profit cycle, with 2027 likely to be a key turning point. This follows the completion of TU's restructuring program in 1Q26, while ITC's is expected to conclude in 1H27. The brokerage estimates that 2030 earnings have an upside of around 30%, from 6.1 billion baht to 7.9 billion baht, with ROE recovering to near 15%. The first half of the upside comes from cost reductions within the company's control, such as lowering SG&A to revenue ratio, debt refinancing, and capital management. The other half comes from revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by increasing the proportion of branded products in the Ambient seafood business, which accounted for 58% of that segment's sales in 1H26 and carries gross margins roughly 5 percentage points higher than OEM. The company targets annual sales growth of 4% and aims to push gross margins to 20–21%. Meanwhile, debt of approximately 20 billion baht maturing during 2H26–1H27 presents an opportunity to further reduce financial costs. The brokerage maintains a Buy recommendation with a target price of 15.60 baht.
Thai Union Ingredient Launches Longevity Portfolio from Tuna
Thai Union Ingredient (TUI), part of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited (TU), has launched its Longevity portfolio, an innovative range of ingredients derived from tuna, including DHA fish oil, collagen, and bio-calcium. These nutrients support brain function, skin health, and bone health, backed by scientific research and a tuna supply chain managed from source to end product. The launch comes as the Asia-Pacific region undergoes demographic shifts, with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) projecting that the population aged 60 and above in the region will triple from 2010 to about 1.3 billion by 2050, accounting for one in four people in the region. Meanwhile, a 2025 McKinsey survey found that over 60% of consumers rank healthy aging as their top priority, and younger generations are increasingly proactive about their health. Ms. Leena Uabamrungjit, Senior Director of TU's Ingredient Business Group, said that most suppliers in the Longevity market specialize in specific areas rather than offering comprehensive solutions. The company has therefore developed a platform that brings together high-quality marine ingredients in one place, backed by a full supply chain, traceability systems, and research collaborations with leading universities. The three ingredients are: UniQ®OMEGA, a purified tuna oil rich in DHA that improves focus by 42% and working memory by 33%; ThalaCol™, a tuna collagen peptide that increases skin hydration by 68%, dermal density by 26%, and elasticity by 16%; and UniQ®BONE, a tuna bio-calcium that strengthens bone structure by 39%. These are developed from by-products of tuna processing—heads, skin, and bones—which most seafood processors cannot utilize. TU transforms them into high-value food ingredients at its tuna oil refinery in Germany, collagen production facility in Samut Sakhon, and calcium powder plant in Songkhla. The company aims to generate at least $30 million in revenue from ThalaCol™ within five years and to grow premium omega-3 oil sales at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% by 2030.
Aging Population › Chronic-Disease Pharma Franchises ▲Supply
Thai Union Ingredient PCL · Technology · Positive Thai Union Ingredient launched its Longevity portfolio of tuna-derived ingredients with documented efficacy results.
TU.BK · Technology · Positive Thai Union Group's ingredient unit launched the Longevity portfolio of tuna-derived DHA, collagen, and bio-calcium ingredients backed by research.
Bualuang Selects 8 Strong Dividend Stocks to Weather Market Volatility
Bualuang Securities stated that amid the still volatile market, its research team believes dividend yield will regain its role as a downside buffer. However, looking at yield based solely on base-case estimates may not be sufficient, so it conducted a Dividend Stress Test for 2027, setting worst-case scenarios according to each industry's risks, such as banks assuming a 5-10 basis point increase in credit costs and payout ratios returning to normal levels, retail with SSSG of -2% YoY, shopping malls with tenant sales of -2% YoY, hospitals with no revenue growth, ICT facing price competition and slowing cost savings, energy using Brent at $60 per barrel compared to the base case of $70 per barrel, and WHA/WHAUP assuming the transfer of 900 rai of data center land is postponed from 2027. The stress test found that even with DPS declining by an average of 7% from the base case, there are still 8 companies whose 2027 dividend yield is higher than the +1 standard deviation level of the 10-year historical average, namely CPALL, BDMS, CPN, TLI, WHA, COM7, OSP, and TU. This reflects that yields still have a buffer even if earnings come in below expectations. Among these, CPALL offers a yield of 4.1% in the worst case compared to the +1SD of 2.6%, BDMS 3.9% versus 2.7%, CPN 3.9% versus 2.9%, TLI 5.4% versus 4.8%, WHA 4.9% versus 4.5%, and COM7 4.0% versus 3.7%. Meanwhile, OSP and TU still offer high yields of 5.3% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the +1SD level of 5.2% for both. In a situation where earnings and the market remain uncertain, the strategy should focus on quality yield rather than merely selecting stocks with high dividend yields. All 8 stocks above maintain yields above their historical ranges even after passing through negative assumptions.
Kingsford Recommends Reducing Stock Portfolio by 20-30% After Fed Signals Rate Hikes
Kingsford Securities assesses the SET support level today at 1,560-1,575 points and resistance at 1,590-1,600 points, expecting the index to decline after the Fed chair signaled tighter interest rates, which may slow fund flows into emerging markets ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Therefore, if you hold a high proportion of stocks, it is recommended to reduce the portfolio by 20-30%. Additionally, it suggests speculating on oil-related stocks following the U.S. strike on Iranian rocket bases near the Strait of Hormuz. Top picks include TFG and TU. For TFG, the IAA Consensus target price is 12.20 baht, with expected net profit in 2026 at 7.1 billion baht, down 5% from the previous year, and returning to growth in 2027 at 8.2 billion baht, up 16%. For TU, the target price is 13.80 baht, with Q2 2026 normalized profit around 1,264 million baht, up 2.21% year-on-year and 49.18% quarter-on-quarter, and expected net profit for 2026 and 2027 at 4,764 million baht and 5,022 million baht, respectively.
TFG.BK · Geopolitics · Neutral Mentioned as a top pick for oil-related speculation following U.S. strike on Iranian rocket bases, but no direct impact on Thaifoods Group.
TU.BK · Geopolitics · Neutral Mentioned as a top pick for oil-related speculation following U.S. strike on Iranian rocket bases, but no direct impact on Thai Union Group.
Thai July exports grow 21.6%, beating forecasts; brokers highlight top stocks
The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.
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