PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited

Several brokers estimate the third-quarter 2026 net profit of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, in a range of 17,700 to 20,700 million baht, an increase of 39 to 63% year on year, driven by higher gas selling prices following the retroactive adjustment of PSC contracts, even though profit slowed from the previous quarter due to losses on oil price hedging and maintenance shutdowns at gas separation plants. Land and Houses Securities expects net profit of 20,700 million baht, down 24% from the previous quarter but up 63% year on year, and expects normal profit of 23,200 million baht, while maintaining a buy recommendation and viewing a dividend yield of about 6% as still attractive. InnovestX Securities expects net profit of 18,600 million baht, up 47% year on year, normal profit of 21,100 million baht, and gives the highest target price in the group at 185 baht with an OUTPERFORM recommendation, estimating a dividend yield of about 7%. Bualuang Securities expects core profit of 23,236 million baht, up 91% year on year and 7% above its previous estimate, on higher gas selling prices after the retroactive PSC contract adjustment for Block A18, and expects net profit of 20,698 million baht, up 63% year on year. Bualuang also said the average Dubai oil price stood at 93 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 after touching 105 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter, and that supply-side risks may keep oil prices elevated through the fourth quarter of 2026.

Dao Securities assesses that the SET index today will be pressured by poor investment sentiment, especially technology stocks, which will drag down domestic electronics. Meanwhile, surging oil prices may help support the energy sector to some extent, keeping the index from falling much, and the market will begin paying more attention to earnings announcements, creating an opportunity to pick up good fundamental stocks. On the international front, President Donald Trump announced via social media that the United States will not launch an attack on Iran before the November midterm elections, citing productive discussions with Tehran, a reversal from earlier intelligence reports indicating the Pentagon was drafting a three-day snap attack plan, which immediately pushed European natural gas prices lower. Domestically, the committee addressing the problem of purchasing electricity from private producers concluded guidelines for reviewing non-firm SPP/VSPP contracts, which the Energy Regulatory Commission acknowledged on October 7. Contracts not yet signed should be negotiated for cancellation, or if they must be signed, the latest National Energy Policy Council rate of 2.1579 baht per unit for solar should be used. Contracts already signed but not yet at COD should be negotiated for cancellation, and the next step must be submitted to the National Energy Policy Council to become government policy. Meanwhile, the Revenue Department is accepting public comments on the draft outbound travel tax act until October 29, 2026, collecting 1,000 baht per outbound flight for all nationalities, initially only by air. This is still at the drafting and public hearing stage and has not yet gone to the Cabinet, and if passed it would take effect 180 days after publication in the Royal Gazette. For the main strategy, Dao Securities advises caution on short-term speculation but sees the decline in banking stocks as an accumulation opportunity, favoring KTB, KBANK and KKP. For medium- to long-term themes, it still favors GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC in the data center and power plant theme, as well as AOT, CENTEL and ERW in the tourism recovery theme. Today's top pick is PTTEP with a fair value of 180.00 baht, driven by continuously rising global oil prices, with Brent closing at 104.28 dollars per barrel, up 4.07%, supporting energy stocks. It expects strong net profit in the third quarter of 2026, with core profit of 21.74 billion baht, up 79.0% year on year but down 10.4% quarter on quarter, supported by a blended ASP holding at a high level in the second half of 2026 and average sales volume that remains high year on year from recognition of the A-18-01 block, even though sales volume is expected to soften quarter on quarter in line with the maintenance shutdown plan for projects in the Gulf of Thailand.

CGSI, or CGS International (Thailand), estimates that the SET Index will swing within a range of 1,560-1,580 points, with the market still pressured by the surge in oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East, which could raise inflation risks and affect the direction of global interest rates. Meanwhile, the decline in technology and chipmaker stocks in the US market over negative developments concerning OpenAI continues to weigh on the investment atmosphere for risk assets in the short term. Under these volatile market conditions, CGSI recommends stocks that benefit from the environment, namely PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, assessing that geopolitical risks in the Middle East are likely to keep Brent crude prices elevated and steady through the fourth quarter of 2026, even though crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz had already recovered in September. It also recommends CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, expecting third-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.078 billion baht, a recovery of 35% from the previous quarter but a decline of 38% from the same period a year earlier, and expects a clear replenishment of large project backlog in 2027 rather than within this year. For the overall overseas market on October 8, the Dow Jones closed slightly higher by 51.77 points, or 0.10%, at 51,231.64 points, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 0.47% and 1.25% respectively. November-delivery WTI crude oil futures jumped 3.64% to close at 91.49 dollars per barrel, and December-delivery Brent crude futures jumped 4.07% to close at 104.28 dollars per barrel.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has upgraded PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, to "Buy" with a fair value of 170.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 net profit of around 18 to 19 billion baht, or an estimated 19.183 billion baht. Although that would be a 29% decline quarter on quarter from a high base in the second quarter of 2026, it still represents outstanding growth of 51% year on year. The company will report its official financial statements on 30 October 2026. The quarter-on-quarter pressure comes from sales volumes expected to fall to 525 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 8% quarter on quarter, following planned maintenance shutdowns at production fields in the Gulf of Thailand, vessel maintenance in Malaysia, lower nominated gas volumes from PTT, and fewer oil delivery rounds in Algeria. Production costs also rose to 30 US dollars per barrel on maintenance expenses, along with the recognition of about 2.5 billion baht in losses from oil price hedging. However, profit still grows strongly year on year thanks to the signing of a production sharing contract, or PSC, for Block A-18-01 with a 50% stake in the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Development Area, which shifted the gas sales pricing structure to a Brent crude oil basis from the previous HSFO fuel oil basis, effective retroactively from the start of 2026, pushing the gas selling price up to 6.5 US dollars per million British thermal units. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 76.710 billion baht, or about 77 billion baht, up 27.3% year on year, assuming an average Dubai crude price of 90 US dollars per barrel, and expects 2027 net profit of 71.620 billion baht on an average crude price assumption of 75 US dollars per barrel. It views PTTEP shares as still lagging the 29% rise in WTI crude, currently trading at a price-to-book value of just 1.0 times, 0.4 standard deviations below the long-term average, while return on equity is as high as 14.8% and the average dividend yield for 2026 to 2027 is above 6%. It expects a 2026 dividend of 9.66 baht, a yield of 6.6%.

KGI Securities has raised its profit forecast for PTTEP for 2026 by 6% to 79.2 billion baht, from 74.6 billion baht previously, and lifted its 2027 forecast by 2% to 83.1 billion baht, from 81.4 billion baht previously, citing higher crude oil prices. It raised its assumption for Dubai crude in 2026 to 90 US dollars per barrel from 85 US dollars per barrel, while keeping its 2027 assumption at 75 US dollars per barrel. It also raised its assumption for PTTEP's average selling price this year by a further 3%. For third-quarter 2026 operating trends, KGI expects net profit of 20.2 billion baht, up 59% year-on-year but down 26% quarter-on-quarter. The decline from the previous quarter is due to an expected loss of 2.5 billion baht from oil price hedging, a reversal from a hedging gain of 4.1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, as well as lower sales volumes. KGI maintains a hold rating on PTTEP with a 2027 target price of 156 baht. PTTEP shares are trading at 148.50 baht, up 1.50 baht or 1.02%, with turnover of 676.85 million baht.

Today's stocks to watch are led by PTTGC and SCC, after newspapers reported that the Trade Competition Commission is scrutinising the merger of GC's and SCGC's olefins and polyolefins businesses, a deal estimated at 60 billion baht that falls under Section 51 of the trade competition law. Fiscal year 2025 set a record with 24 merger cases worth a combined 1.26 trillion baht. Both companies are rushing to finalise the status of the business this October before applying for merger approval. Meanwhile, PTTEP is expected to post third-quarter 2026 profit of 40 to 45 percent, reaching 18 to 18.5 billion baht, driven by higher average selling prices and the retroactive recognition of sales from the A18 gas field. KS maintains a buy rating with a target price of 150 baht. QUICK has set its IPO price at 5.65 baht, with subscriptions open on 9, 12 and 14 October ahead of trading on 21 October 2026. SIRI plans to issue a new perpetual bond together with nine financial institutions, with subscriptions expected to open in February 2027, after nine-month sales of 36.4 billion baht and a backlog of more than 24 billion baht.

Tisco Securities sees Thai stocks entering a recovery phase, with listed-company profits in the second quarter of 2026 setting record highs in revenue, net profit and EBITDA, while valuations remain attractive. Excluding DELTA, the Thai stock market trades at a 12-month forward PER of just 11.8 times, and about 60% of Thai listed companies still trade below their book value. The Thai market also offers an average dividend yield of around 3.9%, higher than the regional average of about 3.4%. Apichat Poobanjerdkul, senior director of the strategic analysis department at Tisco Securities, said the Thai economy and stock market are entering a period of stronger fundamentals, driven by private-sector investment, the AI and data center investment cycle, and continued growth in electronic component exports. He added that there is also long-term upside from large-scale infrastructure investment, especially the PDP 2026 power development plan, which is expected to involve investment worth as much as 2 to 3 trillion baht and is initially expected to add no less than 0.5% per year to GDP growth, making it the most important structural positive factor for Thailand in several decades. Tisco Securities assesses key support levels at 1,560 to 1,580 points and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,610, 1,630 and 1,660 points respectively. It recommends gradually accumulating during market weakness, and its top picks for October are BH, DELTA, KBANK, PTTEP, SJWD, TRUE and TVO.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Kanthara Ladawan Na Ayudhya, an executive director at Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said the overall Thai stock market still faces short-term pressure, with the SET Index likely to move in a sideways-down pattern after falling more than 35 points earlier, and this is not yet the moment to aggressively add to positions. Key support sits at 1,561 points, while resistance is at 1,612-1,620 points. Over the longer term, the firm still targets the index above 1,700 points next year if a major positive catalyst emerges. External factors to watch include crude oil prices holding high around 102 dollars per barrel, which would add pressure on inflation and interest rates, as well as bond yields that may stay elevated for a prolonged period. The market prices only about a 25% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its October 2026 meeting, but as high as roughly 80% for the December 2026 meeting. On foreign fund flows, slight positive signals have emerged after foreign investors flipped back to long futures positions following seven consecutive days of short positions. For investment strategy, FSS recommends a wait-and-see approach and a focus on stock-specific selection. Its top picks for October are BBL, DELTA and STA, while PTTEP benefits from high oil prices. FSS sets a fundamental value of 290 baht for DELTA and 166 baht for PTTEP.

Chinese refineries have suspended exports of refined oil products for October 2026 as China seeks to shore up its domestic oil market, according to sources cited by Dao Securities. China entered a week-long holiday last Thursday and has not yet approved major refineries in the world's largest refining hub to export fuel products to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau for October 2026. Previously, China restricted fuel exports in March 2026 after conflict in Iran disrupted crude oil supply from the Middle East, before easing measures in July and managing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments on a monthly basis. It remains unclear whether China will resume allowing refineries to export goods after the holiday ends on October 7, 2026, and this may depend on domestic fuel inventory levels and refinery capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has not yet responded to requests for comment due to the public holiday. The move is seen as positive for refineries in the short term, as export restrictions will help support product price spreads and crude oil prices. For the overall refinery business outlook in the third quarter of 2026, refineries as a group are expected to report earnings that continue to grow year on year but soften quarter on quarter, tracking market and base refining margins that benefit from strong crack spreads but are offset by high freight costs and refinery price cuts. The investment rating for the energy sector remains at market weight, and upstream energy stock PTTEP remains favored with a target price of 180.00 baht, supported by expectations that average oil selling prices will hold at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.

Kanita Sasivattaya took up the position of Chief Executive Officer of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, on 1 October 2026, and set out a vision to carry forward the mission of building energy security for the country by maintaining continuous petroleum production capacity while pursuing growth abroad in strategically important areas. On corporate management, operations will be conducted under a sustainability approach and will drive the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as well as preparing to accommodate changes in the energy industry through digital technology and AI, personnel development, and the cultivation of a new generation of leaders. Kanita has more than 30 years of experience in the petroleum exploration and production business and has played a key role in driving the development of three main natural gas field networks, in the Gulf of Thailand, the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Development Area, and Myanmar, as well as pushing for a final investment decision for the CCS project in the Arthit field, which is Thailand's first CCS project.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.

Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director of Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, disclosed that the roadshow in the United States, meetings with foreign institutional investors, and cooperation between Thai capital market agencies and the New York Stock Exchange are positive factors helping foreign investors pay more attention to Thailand, and may mark the beginning of drawing foreign capital flows, or Fund Flow, back into the Thai stock market after a period of heavy outflows. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Thai capital market and the New York Stock Exchange on the listing of securities in more than one market, or Dual Listing, is an important development that will help increase liquidity and raise the standards of the Thai capital market. For short-term strategy, Kanthara views that the market remains highly volatile due to US government bond yields rising to around 5.25% and oil prices that remain high. He recommends monitoring Brent crude oil at around 102 dollars per barrel; if it can hold above this level, prices may continue to rise, but for concerns to ease, prices should fall to around 91 to 93 dollars per barrel. He also recommends gradually accumulating PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, when oil prices weaken, and holds a positive view on commercial banks, giving a fair value for Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, at 240 baht. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, he views that commercial banks remain continuously strong, while the export sector is interesting, especially Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, and I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC. Meanwhile, the hospital sector has an opportunity to recover seasonally, with attention on Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS. He assesses that the Thai stock market is still more suitable for short-term trading than for chasing prices, with a key resistance level around 1,612 to 1,620 points, and that a strong break above this level would require new positive factors to support it.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to slow within a range of 1,595 to 1,610 points, pressured by a sharp rise in US bond yields, with 5-year and 10-year yields breaking above 5%, while crude oil prices turned back up above US$100 per barrel once again. CGS International (Thailand) sees the SET Index in a range of 1,600 to 1,630 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months until January 10, 2570. DAOL expects the SET Index to move sideways after the investment mood came back under pressure from bond yields and rising oil prices. For today's top picks, PTTEP is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 180.00 baht, and AOT is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 72.00 baht. Finansia Syrus's top picks for September are BTG, HANA, ITC, PR9 and STA, with STA rated 'Trading Buy' with a target price of 23 baht. MOSHI expects same-store sales growth of 4.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9 expects net profit for the hospital group in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the ADB raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Dao Securities reported that Brent crude oil futures rose 3.9% to USD 103.1 per barrel after reports that the President of Iran stated at the United Nations General Assembly that free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would not be permitted as long as US sanctions and blockade measures remain in force. This reflects the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement with the United States, even as efforts to revive negotiations emerged this week. However, Iran is ready to return to talks to end the conflict that has dragged on for nearly seven months, but will not respond to threats. Dao Securities holds a positive view on the short-term crude oil price outlook on this news, but still believes crude prices will remain highly volatile. It maintains its average Dubai crude price assumption for this year at USD 85.0 per barrel and keeps an "equal weight" investment rating for the energy sector. It continues to favour upstream energy stocks such as PTTEP, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 180.00 baht, based on average selling prices holding at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.

The analyst at Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited maintains an "equal to market" investment weighting for the energy sector, believing oil prices will remain strong in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by renewed geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East as well as the intensifying war between Russia and Ukraine. For the overall oil market picture in 2026, the brokerage believes the market will be tight and see short-term supply shortages from the impact of the war and reduced maritime transport from the Middle East. Crude oil prices are expected to be supported by recovering Chinese import volumes and historically low U.S. strategic petroleum reserves. Meanwhile, market refining margins and base refining margins have likely already passed their peak for the year, and marketing margins will recover gradually but may still see pressure from increasingly negative fuel fund positions. The energy sector index rose 20% and outperformed the SET by 5% over the past six months, in line with the trend of higher crude oil prices. The brokerage selects PTTEP (buy/target 180.00 baht) as its top pick in the energy sector, believing PTTEP's overall earnings will be supported by average selling prices holding at high levels.

PTT Exploration and Production and its partner Valeura Energy have reached a final investment decision to proceed with phase one of gas development at the Bussabong gas field in Block G3/65 offshore the Gulf of Thailand. PTTEP participates through its subsidiary PTTEP Energy Development, and the decision marks Canada-based Valeura's first organic gas development in its Thailand portfolio. Phase one calls for two gas wellhead platforms, each with capacity for 24 wells, tied by a 9km subsea pipeline to existing gas processing infrastructure at the neighbouring Bongkot field, which PTTEP also operates, with first gas targeted for the end of 2028. Valeura's estimated capital expenditure for its 40% working interest in phase one is around $35m, or C$49.3m, for facilities, installation and pipelines, budgeted for 2027 and 2028, plus a projected $20–25m for its share of drilling 25 development wells, with no significant spending planned for 2026. Phase one production is expected to deliver roughly 30 million cubic feet per day of sales gas in 2029, rising to 40mcf/d in 2030, with Valeura's share at 12mcf/d and 16mcf/d respectively. PTTEP holds a 60% stake and Valeura Energy (Chaiyaphruek) holds the remaining 40%, with official transfer of Valeura's working interest having received executive approval from Thailand's cabinet and administrative completion expected by late September or early October 2026.

Fitch Ratings announced it has revised the outlook on the long-term foreign-currency international credit ratings of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, or EGAT, PTT Public Company Limited, and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, to stable from negative, while affirming the long-term international credit ratings at BBB+. The outlook revision follows Fitch's revision of Thailand's long-term foreign-currency international credit rating outlook at BBB+ to stable from negative on September 18, 2026. For EGAT and PTT, Fitch assigns credit ratings equal to Thailand's sovereign rating, reflecting their standalone credit profiles at bbb+ together with government support, which Fitch assesses as certain under its criteria for rating government-related entities. PTTEP is rated at the same level as its parent, PTT, under the parent-subsidiary relationship criteria, with Fitch assessing PTT's strategic and operational incentive to support PTTEP as high and its legal incentive as low. PTTEP is PTT's only upstream business company and accounted for approximately 60% of PTT's consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2025.

Saudi Arabia has restarted the East-West oil pipeline and may resume crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later on Tuesday, amid signs of rising volumes of oil flowing out of the Middle East. Sources said the pipeline was pumping at a low rate after being brought back online. One source said Saudi Aramco is trying to raise the pumping rate back to 4.0 million barrels per day, against a maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day, and that lifting the rate to 40% of capacity will take two to three days, while a full return to capacity will take six to eight weeks. Dao Securities has a neutral view on the news, saying the plan for the East-West pipeline to return to full capacity may take slightly longer than previously expected. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures edged down 1.1% to 99.3 US dollars per barrel. The research house maintained its assumption of an average Dubai oil price of 85.0 US dollars per barrel this year and kept an equal-weight investment stance on the energy sector, still favouring upstream energy stock PTTEP, rated buy with a target price of 180.00 baht, on expectations that average selling prices will hold at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.

PTT has announced a goal to expand the volume in its LNG portfolio from 3.7 million tonnes in 2026 to 10 million tonnes in 2030 and to reach 15 million tonnes by 2035, separate from the LNG volume under long-term contracts procured to serve domestic demand, totalling 6.2 million tonnes per year. Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT, said the PTT Group views natural gas and LNG as a destination fuel that will still have a role in the system over the long term, not merely as a transition fuel. The PTT Group has an onshore and offshore gas pipeline network spanning more than 4,500 kilometres, connected to two LNG receiving and regasification terminals operated by PTTLNG, with a combined regasification capacity of 19 million tonnes per year. Meanwhile, PTTEP is expanding investment in 10 countries worldwide and made a final investment decision in 2025 on a carbon capture and storage project, or CCS, at the Arthit natural gas field, with the potential to capture and reinject up to 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, and it is Thailand's first CCS project. At present, PTT's international trading business has more than 6 offices and a trading network covering more than 80 countries. PTT is also developing a Free Zone system and Virtual Inventory to support Thailand's development into a regional LNG trading hub.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.

Yuanta Securities raised its Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2026-2027 to 90 dollars per barrel from 85 dollars per barrel, and to 75 dollars per barrel from 70 dollars per barrel, respectively, after Middle East tensions dragged on longer than previously expected, with the situation having been expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026. Instead, tensions re-escalated from early September after the United States and Iran resumed attacks on each other following a ceasefire that had held since July, and the conflict also spread to Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, which attacked refineries and the East-West Pipeline that carries roughly 4-5 million barrels per day, or 4-5% of global supply. Saudi Arabia said it could restore partial operation of about 50% within the next few days, but a full return to capacity may take around six weeks. The research team raised its 2026-2027 net profit forecasts for PTTEP by 5-12% to 77 billion baht and 72 billion baht, respectively. It maintained its investment weighting for the energy sector at "equal to market" and sees upstream energy stocks PTT, PTTEP and BANPU as the main choices for investment at this time, with BANPU as the top pick with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 19.00 baht, driven by its gas business in the United States, which is supported by the data center industry, and its coal business, which benefits from demand substituting for LNG in a region strained by war. Meanwhile, risk-averse investors can invest in PTT with a "buy" rating and a fair value of 45.00 baht, based on its integrated business with lower volatility and consistently high dividend payouts.

Gastech 2026 announced partnerships and investment plans during its first three days worth a combined $40 billion, covering agreements ranging from memoranda of understanding to purchase contracts and investment plans across the energy value chain. China Gas Holdings and Venture Global LNG agreed to buy 0.5 million tonnes per year of LNG from the United States over 20 years, starting in 2030. Samsung Heavy Industries closed a deal to build LNG carriers and crude oil tankers worth $1.2 billion, while the state of Sarawak concluded talks with Indorama Ventures and partners from Japan on downstream natural gas and petrochemical investment worth about $1 billion in Bintulu. In addition, PETRONAS, PTTEP JDA and the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Authority signed a 35-year production sharing contract and a natural gas sales agreement in the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Development Area. GE Vernova and B.Grimm Power signed an agreement to supply gas turbine technology and long-term services in Thailand and Malaysia. Eni signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Senegal to assess the oil potential of five offshore exploration blocks, and Horacio Marín, chairman and chief executive of YPF, announced plans to sign two to three LNG sales contracts for the Argentina LNG export project. Supawan Teerarat, director of the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau, or TCEB, said the event drew more than 50,000 participants from over 150 countries and is expected to generate about 14.62 billion baht in economic value.

The Energy Policy Administration Committee resolved to revoke its September 9, 2026 announcement that cut the refinery-gate diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre, and to raise that discount for diesel to 4.00 baht per litre from September 16, 2026 to October 31, 2026. As a result, Dao Securities holds a negative view on the refinery group given heightened policy risk, believing the impact on earnings and cash flow, from largest to smallest, falls on BCP, TOP, PTTGC, IRPC and SPRC. It maintained an equal-weight stance on the energy sector and advised avoiding refinery stocks for now, with a hold rating on TOP and a target of 70.00 baht, a hold on SPRC with a target of 12.00 baht, and a buy on BCP with a target of 50.00 baht. It also continues to favour PTTEP with a buy rating and a target of 180.00 baht, on the back of average selling prices for oil trending higher again in the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities views the refinery group as slightly negative after the government sought a larger-than-expected diesel price discount from refineries. If the government keeps requesting a 4 baht per litre diesel discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, 8% for SPRC and 7% for BCP, while target prices would be affected by about 1.4% for TOP, 2.2% for SPRC and 2.8% for BCP respectively. It nonetheless remains bullish on the refinery group on expectations of tight supply, picking TOP as its top pick, and expects the CFP project to begin commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028 as a factor supporting long-term growth potential.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, has informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that its subsidiary, PTTEP International Limited, has been granted the rights to explore and produce petroleum with a 100% investment stake in onshore exploration blocks L1/66 and L3/66, located in northeastern Thailand near the Sin Phu Horm project, which the company operates and which is currently producing. The exploration blocks cover areas of 3,223.51 square kilometres and 3,918.22 square kilometres respectively. A concession agreement will be signed in due course. The award of these rights is in line with the company's strategic plan, which focuses on investment to strengthen energy security for Thailand.

The Cabinet meeting on 15 September 2026 resolved to approve the results of the selection of petroleum concessionaires for the 25th onshore exploration blocks, covering areas in the Northeast and Central regions of Thailand. PTTEP International Limited, part of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, was awarded the onshore exploration concessions L1/66 and L3/66. Meanwhile, Pan Orient Energy (Siam) Limited together with CanAsia Energy Corp. was awarded the onshore exploration concession L8/66. Warakorn Phrahmobol, Director-General of the Department of Mineral Fuels, disclosed that the Ministry of Energy opened applications for petroleum exploration and production rights for the 25th onshore exploration blocks under the concession system in late 2024, with petroleum operators both domestic and foreign submitting a total of 8 applications from 5 companies, covering 4 exploration blocks. This approval will lead to domestic petroleum exploration and production, increasing the chance of discovering new petroleum sources and reducing dependence on energy imports, especially for exploration blocks L1/66 and L3/66. If petroleum is discovered and can be developed commercially, they will be important energy sources supporting power generation at the Nam Phong power plant, the main power plant in the Northeast. As for the next step, the Department of Mineral Fuels will hold a concession signing ceremony between the Ministry of Energy and the winning companies. The auction results for onshore exploration block L6/66 are in the process of being submitted to the Cabinet for further consideration.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced at the Gastech Exhibition & Conference 2026 that the government is ready to link energy with investment and expand international cooperation in natural gas and LNG, renewable energy, energy storage systems, carbon management, hydrogen, bioenergy, and clean energy technology, in order to drive Thailand to become the region's hub for energy investment, innovation, and cooperation. He stressed that a balance will be maintained between energy security and prices that the public can afford, and that from mid-October onward the government will begin a 50 billion baht programme to support households in installing solar rooftops. Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, said that hosting Gastech, which draws tens of thousands of participants, is a key opportunity for joint-venture negotiations, finding new energy sources, and expanding LNG trading with partners worldwide. PTT has been in the natural gas business for more than 40 years and believes the world will continue to rely on natural gas as the main fuel for power plants and the industrial sector for another 20 to 30 years. PTT LNG Company Limited, or PTTLNG, has the capacity to receive, store, and regasify up to 19 million tonnes of LNG per year, while PTT plans to expand its LNG portfolio volume to a target of 3.7 million tonnes in 2026 and aims to raise that to 10 million tonnes per year in 2030 and 15 million tonnes per year in 2035. At the same time, PTT has developed Thailand's first CCS project, capable of capturing and reinjecting up to 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, with PTT Exploration and Production announcing a final investment decision in 2025, as well as the Industrial Spark, or I-SPARK, pilot project in Rayong province, and the Total Solution for Industrial Sustainability, which combines IoT, data science, and AI technologies to upgrade energy services for Thailand's industrial sector toward smart energy management.