The Siam Cement Public Company Limited

Krungsri Securities said high US bond yields remain a drag on the market. This week the market is focused on the September 26 CPI inflation report, with the market expecting plus 3.6% year-on-year and plus 0.6% month-on-month, based on energy accounting for roughly 6.0-6.5% of the US inflation basket and September 26 crude oil prices rising 16% month-on-month, which suggests the market has already priced in some of the risk. The market is also waiting to assess the war situation, where news flow remains volatile, with the main view still that the war has passed its peak but will drag on at least until before the US midterm elections. Domestically, the market is waiting to monitor flooding, which is expected to have limited impact on the market if it is not severe. For this week's top picks, it recommends DELTA, PTTGC and SCC. DELTA has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on the accelerating AI investment cycle. PTTGC has a Bloomberg consensus target price of 63 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with SCC. SCC has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with PTTGC. Last week's top picks, DELTA, PTTGC and KBANK, delivered an average return of plus 2.43% versus plus 0.38% for the SET.

Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of Research in the Investment Strategy Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, said on the October 8, 2569 edition of the stock news program "Jad Talad" that the Thai stock market today is likely to move sideways, even as most Asian markets come under pressure from rising US government bond yields, along with concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts. The market still needs to watch US consumer inflation figures, or CPI, in the middle of next week. As for the MSCI index review in November, Krungsri's research team sees it as increasingly interesting, with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, having a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, plus or minus, since its market capitalization adjusted for free-float proportion has already passed the preliminary threshold. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, which is currently in the MSCI Small Cap index, has a chance to move up to the MSCI Global Standard index after its share price continued to improve. Even using a stricter market capitalization threshold assumption of about 50% above the normal level, a share price of around 50 baht, plus or minus, would still likely pass the criteria, and PTTGC also has support from progress in setting up a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group, which could add upside of about 7 to 9 baht to its fundamental value. For standout stocks, Krungsri's research team recommends Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, on the domestic play theme; WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, on the trend of attracting foreign investment; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, on the trend of raising medical service fees in the social security system.

Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, has maintained its investment budget for this year at 30 billion baht, after capital expenditure of 11.064 billion baht in the first half of the year, mainly in the cement and building materials business group, such as cost reduction and operational efficiency projects, with another portion in the chemicals business, which has a project to increase ethane gas feedstock at the LSP plant in Vietnam. Mr. Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO, disclosed on an earnings call that in the first half of the year, SCC had sales revenue of 259.57 billion baht and a profit for the period of 17.758 billion baht, and excluding special items, which were mostly inventory valuation adjustments, profit for the period would be 12.649 billion baht. Adjusted Cash EBITDA this year is likely to be higher than last year and above the target of approximately 55 billion baht, after reaching about 42.913 billion baht in the first half. For the project to increase ethane gas feedstock at the LSP plant in Vietnam, construction of the gas storage tanks is now more than 60% complete, and once finished it is expected to help reduce costs by 200 to 300 million dollars per year. However, the company has now halted operations at the LSP plant because of insufficient feedstock and is accelerating the switch to ethane gas feedstock instead, to help reduce dependence on feedstock from the Strait of Hormuz and to obtain raw material costs cheaper than naphtha.

Siam Cement, or SCC, is drawing close attention after its share price jumped sharply on expectations of a major deal in the petrochemical business. CEO Thammasak Sethaudom said that on October 29, 2026, the company will disclose details of the JV structure between SCGC and PTTGC in the olefins and polyolefins business, covering both the transaction steps and the benefits of the deal. Although SCC's total revenue may decline, net profit, cash flow and EBITDA are likely to rise on better margins and synergies, while reducing duplication and costs and strengthening raw material supply. On the telecom side, Samart Telcom, or SAMTEL, has positive news, with CEO Jong Diloksombat moving ahead through Cycare Info Co., Ltd., an indirect subsidiary, after signing a contract with the IEAT worth 146.20 million baht for a project to establish a cyber operations center and data backup center, or DRC, at the SMART PARK industrial estate. Delivery is scheduled by April 27, 2027, adding to the backlog and supporting the cybersecurity theme. AssetWise, or ASW, is pressing ahead with business expansion after 39 Estate, in which ASW holds a 99.99% stake, acquired Chewathai Estate 3 from CHEWA, with the deal completed on October 6, 2026. ASW Chief Executive Officer Kamchet Wiphanpong is continuing to build on the real estate business, while CHEWA focuses on increasing cash flow amid liquidity concerns. A bondholders' meeting on October 7, 2026 has key agenda items including a waiver of default, an extension of the redemption date and adjustments to early redemption conditions. Kitti Ngamjettanarom, head of the technology executive team at AIS, Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, or ADVANC, believes the new-era network must move from a connectivity grid to a National Intelligent Infrastructure offering speed, stability, security and the ability to handle real-time data. AIS is moving ahead under its WISE Framework after launching 5G-ADVANCED, particularly Uplink 2CC, which now covers 100% of Bangkok, making the Thai capital the world's first capital city with citywide 5G-ADVANCED Uplink coverage. It also boosts upload speeds by up to two times and is expanding to all 77 provincial capitals, while Downlink 3CC, which combines the 2600, 700 and 2100 MHz bands, raises download speeds by up to 1.5 times and targets full Bangkok coverage by the end of 2026. On the investment side, Jirapaiboon Rattanaphanurak, Head of Wealth Research & Advisory at CIMB Thai Bank, or CIMBT, sees the fourth quarter of 2026 market facing pressure from inflation, oil prices and higher US bond yields, but still believes the market can cope thanks to strong listed-company earnings and momentum from AI investment. CIMBT has therefore upgraded its weighting on US and non-Japan Asian equities to Overweight and recommends a Barbell strategy combining Quality Growth stocks that benefit from AI with quality fixed income and alternative assets.

Shares of Siam Cement, or SCC, surged 6% to close at 265 baht, up 15 baht, on heavy trading value of 3.8368 billion baht. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical, or GC, closed at 53.25 baht, up 1 baht, or 1.91%, after CLSA issued an analysis following discussions with Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCC, on the company's business restructuring strategy. CLSA maintained its OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of 280 baht, viewing the joint venture with GC as positive even though SCC will hold less than 50%, as the larger asset base and synergies in raw material management and olefins production efficiency will support net profit over the long term and generate cash flow back to the parent company by 2028, helping reduce debt burden and support low-carbon businesses. Asia Plus Securities maintained its Buy rating with a fair value of 310 baht, noting that holding less than 50% means the JV will not be consolidated, improving balance sheet efficiency, while petrochemical profits will be recognized through larger Equity Income. InnovestX maintained its Neutral rating with a target price of 276 baht based on SOTP valuation, and noted that HDPE-naphtha prices rose 5% week-on-week this week to a two-month high of 443 US dollars per ton.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, has maintained its SET index target for the end of 2026 at 1,680-1,750 points, assessing that the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to recover strongly, driven by the start of a new investment cycle powered by AI technology, production base relocation, and energy security. As a result, credit growth in Asia has accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, Krungsri research has raised its forecast for Thailand's 2026 GDP to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment expected to expand 8.6% and exports expanding 14.0% year-on-year. Earnings of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 hit a record high, growing 12% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011. Krungsri Securities therefore recommends an overweight position in three main themes: stocks benefiting from the Asia-Thailand CAPEX Cycle, stocks with potential for NTM re-ratings, and stocks benefiting from a super El Niño. Its top picks for the fourth quarter are TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA, and KBANK, and it also recommends keeping an eye on mid-small cap stocks such as THAI HANA and ERW.

SCC shares rose 5.60% to 264.00 baht on October 7, 2026, buoyed by positive views on the SCG group's business restructuring and progress on a plan to establish a joint venture with PTTGC, as well as the Long Son Petrochemicals project, or LSP, in Vietnam. CLSA said the combination of large asset bases with PTTGC would create synergies on several fronts, including greater flexibility in raw material management, improved olefins production efficiency, and expansion into downstream businesses. It expects this to significantly boost cash flow back to the parent company by 2028. Meanwhile, the switch to ethane feedstock at the LSP project is nearly 70% complete and is likely to finish ahead of the original schedule. CLSA maintained its OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of 280 baht per share.

Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, said the baht's continued depreciation, recently averaging around 33.69 baht per dollar, is a positive for the company, since about 40% of SCC's revenue comes from overseas, which will clearly help lift that portion of revenue. As for cooperation between SCG Chemicals Public Company Limited, or SCGC, and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, in studying the merger of their olefins businesses, the various steps are progressing steadily, with details to be officially announced on October 29, 2026. The research team at Asia Plus Securities said the two sides have reached a preliminary agreement on the scope of the joint venture, or JV scope, and expects PTTGC to be the major shareholder in the joint venture while SCGC retains a significant stake. It recommends buying SCC shares with a target price of 310.00 baht. On business direction for 2026, SCC is maintaining its target for cash flow from normal operations, excluding special items, or EBITDA, at more than 55 billion baht, after achieving about 42.9 billion baht in the first half of this year. Currently, revenue from polyolefin products accounts for about 42%, while the chemicals business overall accounts for roughly 40–44%. In addition, SCC has set up a special-price home repair program, is supporting lower-priced construction materials, and is delivering assistance to communities around its plants to ease the impact of flooding in many areas of Thailand.

The ESG Symposium 2026, held under the theme ASEAN In Action, pushed last year's sustainability proposals into real action, building on three key agendas: Energy Transition, Just Transition, and Climate Adaptation, through 4P cooperation, or Public-Private-People Partnership. Joe Fellan, Executive Director for Asia-Pacific at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, said the sustainability transition is tied to competitiveness, security, and investment, making it both a major challenge and a major opportunity for ASEAN. Dr. Pacharapoj Nantaramas, Chief Economist at Krungthai Bank, noted that Thailand must use the Green Transition to raise its competitiveness and attract future investment, driving it end-to-end and having large businesses help upgrade SMEs in the supply chain through the Reinvent Thailand platform. Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCG, said 4P cooperation can deliver real results and should be scaled up from lessons learned in Saraburi province to other areas. The results of the discussions will be summarized in a White Paper to be submitted to the government and relevant agencies for use in considering policy and developing support mechanisms for an Inclusive Green Transition.

Two brokers flag energy and petrochemical stocks as standouts. Bualuang Securities recommends switching out of refinery stocks after prices already reflected high refining margins, and moving into petrochemicals, which remain laggards, highlighting IVL and PTTGC on a trend of tight supply in late 2026. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities recommends IVL, TOP, PTTGC and SCC on recovering product spreads. Singapore refining margins, or GRM, rebounded sharply by 8.22 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 6.78 US dollars per barrel, driven by shutdowns at some refineries in North Asia and export restrictions by China and Russia. On the petrochemical side, most product spreads improved on lower naphtha costs tracking oil prices, pushing the ethylene spread up to 286 US dollars per tonne, propylene to 311 US dollars per tonne, HDPE to 436 US dollars per tonne and PP to 541 US dollars per tonne. Within petrochemicals, only the PET chain, namely IVL, received positive factors. The house therefore maintains a BULLISH call on the energy and petrochemical sector, with top picks of TOP, SCC and PTTGC.

Research by Asia Plus Securities assesses that a water management megaproject with a combined value of 165,000 million baht will support the growth of the construction contracting sector over the medium to long term. The project aims to cut flood damage by about 16,930 million baht per year and reduce flooded area by 3.48 million rai. Construction is expected to begin in 2027 and take eight years. Among the stocks expected to benefit, Asia Plus names CK as its top pick with a target price of 24 baht on the prospect of winning work directly, while STECON carries a target price of 23 baht on expectations it will benefit from large project contracts. Also in the frame are UNIQ, which has opportunities from large project work, and ITD, which is involved in earthworks and drainage systems. In the construction materials group, SCC, SCCC and TPIPL stand to benefit from project demand for materials. Factors to watch include the project's funding sources, land expropriation, the timing of bidding, and contract signing, all of which will affect progress and the chances that construction companies win work from the project.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, is advising investors to raise their cash allocation to 30-40% of their portfolios to reduce risk from volatility and wait for the right moment to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks. The recommendation comes amid pressure from the Persian Gulf situation, where the US Department of Defense is preparing to send another aircraft carrier along with more than 10,000 marines into the area if Donald Trump escalates his handling of Iran. That has pushed Brent crude to 102.3 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, European inflation in September came in higher than expected in several countries, with France at 3.0%, Spain at 4.9%, Italy at 4.1% and Germany at 3.3% year on year, driving overall eurozone inflation to 3.7% year on year. On the Thai side, the stock market saw net selling of 771 million US dollars, as 10-year bond yields worldwide rose by 0.20% to 1.50% over the past month, pressuring Thailand's market earnings yield gap down to 3.7% from 5.3% early in the year, while the baht weakened into a range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar. However, the weaker baht is a positive for three main business groups: exporters such as TU, ITC and CPF; the medical group such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; and the tourism group such as AOT and CENTEL. In addition, the research team has selected five standout stocks for the day: AMAT01, MRVL06, KCE, SCC and CK. KCE is expected to see third and fourth quarter profits recover both quarter on quarter and year on year, benefiting from a shortage of PCB circuit boards. SCC drew a positive market response after excluding its olefins business, while CK benefits from accelerated disbursement and government project bidding, with third quarter results expected to mark the year's peak.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two securities, STA and SCC. For STA, it recommends buying with a target price of 23.90 baht, assessing support at 20.6 and 21.3 and resistance at 23.0 and 23.4. It expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to rise year on year but fall quarter on quarter, owing to the high base in the second quarter of 2026 and some customers delaying orders to wait and see rubber prices. It expects continued support from the SICOM TSR20 rubber price, which rose from the previous quarter, while EUDR rubber sales volume is expected to increase to approximately 30,000 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026 from 17,214 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, and to rise to more than 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2026, helping support both ASP and GPM. For SCC, it recommends buying with a target price of 268 baht, assessing support at 248 and 252 and resistance at 266 and 270. SCC and PTTGC reported progress on the establishment of a joint venture, saying it is advancing well and has entered the due diligence stage to verify information, and that they are in the process of agreeing on the key terms of the transaction. The main asset scope of the joint venture covers olefins production plants, PE and PP production plants, and investments in the joint ventures of both parties, with PTTGC to be the major shareholder while SCGC will hold a significant stake. The view is positive, and the next progress announcement at the end of October regarding clarity on the shareholding proportions and the value of synergies will be a factor supporting the stock going forward.

Asia Plus Securities research has issued an analysis of PTTGC and SCC shares after both companies notified the Stock Exchange of Thailand of progress in their feasibility study on a strategic joint venture between PTTGC and SCGC in the olefins and polyolefins business in Thailand. The two parties have reached a preliminary agreement on the scope of the joint venture, or JV Scope. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the joint venture, while SCGC will retain a significant stake in the venture. The research team views this JV as a strategic reset for PTTGC during the downturn phase of the petrochemical cycle, helping to reduce downside risk from investing in new capacity expansion in a market that is in a state of oversupply and building leadership in the region's petrochemical business. PTTGC will reinforce strengths on the upstream and feedstock flexibility side, while SCGC will reinforce downstream, HVA and R&D. For SCC shares, the research team views that the key issue is not holding less than 50%, but rather the value of synergies and the economic returns from the JV. Not consolidating the financial statements may make the balance sheet more efficient, and petrochemical business profit would shift from recognition through EBITDA to equity income. The research team recommends trading PTTGC shares with a target price of 48 baht and recommends buying SCC shares with a fair value of 310 baht. Both companies will finalize key transaction details, such as the shareholding structure, operational steps and synergies, by the end of October 2026. The joint venture remains subject to internal approval by both companies, the final valuation and approval from shareholders and joint venture partners.

PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, and Siam Cement Group, or SCC, announced that discussions on establishing a joint venture for olefins and polyolefins businesses in Thailand have entered the due diligence stage to verify information. This marks clear progress from the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding in April. The proposed joint venture would combine nearly all of the two groups' core olefins and polyolefins assets in Thailand. PTTGC would contribute its olefins production plant, its polyethylene, or PE, production plant, and its investment in HMC Polymers Company Limited. SCC would contribute its olefins production plant in Thailand, its PE and polypropylene, or PP, production plants, as well as SCGC's investments in various joint ventures, namely Siam Polyethylene Company Limited, Siam Synthetic Latex Company Limited, Thai MMA Company Limited, and Bangkok Synthetics Company Limited. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the joint venture, while SCGC would remain a significant shareholder. Key terms of the transaction are expected to be clarified by October 2026, including the shareholding structure, transaction procedures, and the expected value of the collaboration. After that, requests will be submitted to the Trade Competition Commission, as well as for internal approvals, shareholder approvals, and approvals from partners in the relevant joint ventures.

Shares of PTTGC and SCC rose after the latest progress in their petrochemical merger deal. As of 10:02 a.m., PTTGC was up 2.58%, gaining 1.25 baht to 49.75 baht, with trading value of 238.14 million baht, while SCC was up 1.18%, gaining 3.00 baht to 257.00 baht, with trading value of 187.38 million baht. InnovestX Securities said in an analysis that PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, and SCG Chemicals, or SCGC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Siam Cement, or SCC, are pressing ahead with the confirmatory due diligence process alongside negotiations on key transaction terms for the establishment of a joint venture in Thailand. The transaction covers the two companies' main petrochemical assets in Thailand, centered on the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the new JV, while SCGC will hold a significant minority stake. Both parties have already defined the scope of assets. On the PTTGC side, this covers the olefins and polyolefins businesses in Thailand, namely olefins production plants, polyethylene production plants, and the investment in HMC Polymers, while the refinery business, aromatics business, biochemical business, and specialty chemicals business, mainly allnex, will remain under PTTGC. For SCGC, the scope comprises olefins production plants, polyethylene production plants, and polypropylene production plants, as well as SCGC's investments in joint ventures, namely Siam Polyethylene Company Limited, Siam Synthetic Latex Company Limited, Thai MMA Company Limited, and Bangkok Synthetics Company Limited. However, some of SCGC's joint ventures and SCC's Long Son Petrochemical, or LSP, plant are not included in this transaction. Both parties are assessing opportunities to create synergies and preparing to seek approval from the relevant joint venture partners. The disclosure of further details in October 2026 will help the market more accurately assess the positive impact on earnings, the effect on financial position, and the upside to the share value of both parent companies. Key information to be disclosed includes the final shareholding proportions between PTTGC and SCGC, the synergy assessment, the asset valuation method, and the accounting treatment and consolidation mechanism. The merger and full operational integration are expected around mid-2027 after receiving approval from the relevant regulators and shareholders. The transaction requires approval from the Trade Competition Commission, and the review process is expected to take about three to six months. However, management does not view obtaining trade competition approval as a significant obstacle to proceeding with the transaction, since petrochemical products are commodities traded in the global market and priced according to international market mechanisms, while the main purpose of setting up the JV is to improve operational efficiency rather than to control domestic prices. InnovestX Securities maintained its recommendation and target price, giving PTTGC a target price of 63 baht and maintaining a NEUTRAL recommendation on SCC with a target price of 276 baht.

The Cabinet has approved the Chai Nat–Pa Sak–Gulf of Thailand flood diversion canal project, with total investment of approximately 165 billion baht, one of Thailand's largest megaprojects in years. The project aims to create a new water diversion route from the upper Chao Phraya basin directly to the Gulf of Thailand, improving drainage efficiency and reducing flood risk in the central region, Bangkok, and surrounding provinces. The government estimates that once completed, it will reduce flooded area by about 3.48 million rai, add roughly 1.555 billion cubic metres of water storage capacity, and cut economic damage from flooding by about 16.93 billion baht per year. Under the implementation timeline, feasibility studies and design are set for 2026, with construction of phase one beginning in 2027. From 2028 to 2030, the drainage canal, sluice gates, and land acquisition will be carried out. From 2031 to 2033, main structures will be built and systems tested, before full operation in 2034. Asia Plus Securities said the construction contracting group will be the first direct beneficiary, with CK, STECON, and UNIQ standing out as stocks with strong potential to win contracts, while ITD is likely to benefit from its expertise in earthworks and drainage systems. The construction materials group, including SCC, SCCC, and TPIPL, will see support later in the materials usage cycle. Factors to watch are clarity on funding sources, the land acquisition or expropriation process, and the timetable for opening bidding on each contract, with delays in these steps posing a key risk that could push the transmission of benefits later than planned.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities estimate that flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces over the past weekend will hit the economy by about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods disrupt activity for one week, with Bangkok as the main economic area accounting for 34% of GDP. They said the groups that benefit once floodwaters recede include retailers of home repair equipment such as HMPRO, GLOBAL and DOHOME, construction materials players such as SCC and TASCO, and contractors expected to gain from a push for more state projects to tackle flooding. On dividend forecasts for 2026, analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities upgraded HMPRO from "hold" to "buy" with a target price of 7.20 baht and an expected dividend of 0.36 baht. Krungsri maintained its "buy" rating on GLOBAL with a target price of 8.80 baht and an expected dividend of 0.29 baht, and kept its "buy" rating on DOHOME with a target price of 4.40 baht and an expected dividend of 0.06 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) recommended "buy" on SCC with a target price of 305 baht and an expected dividend of 8.50 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) maintained their "buy" rating on TASCO with a target price of 19.40 baht and an expected dividend payout of 1 baht for 2026.

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or KGI, has initiated coverage on Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, with a Buy rating and a 2027 sum-of-the-parts target price of 305 baht per share, based on blended EV/EBITDA and P/E. It views the current valuation as still below historical averages and those of its peer group. KGI said SCC is in a period of structural transition, having previously relied mainly on its petrochemical business. In 2021, core profit peaked at around 47 billion baht, with the chemicals business accounting for roughly 60%, before profit fell to about 5 billion baht in 2025 on weaker product spreads and operating costs from the LSP project. In the first half of 2026, the share of EBITDA from the chemicals business fell to about 36% from 45% in 2021, while SCG Packaging Public Company Limited, or SCGP, and the Cement-Building Materials business, or CBM, which includes SCG Decor Public Company Limited, or SCGD, together saw their share of EBITDA rise to 55% from 49%. KGI expects SCC's core profit in 2026-2028 to grow 287%, 7% and 27% from the previous year, respectively, with its 2027-2028 estimates about 14% and 10% above the market consensus, respectively. It estimates SCC's annual CAPEX will fall to about 30 billion baht from around 61 billion baht previously, which should accelerate debt reduction and increase dividend-paying capacity. It also estimates a bull case of 381 baht per share and a bear case of 117 baht per share.

Krungsri Securities estimates that the flood situation in Bangkok, caused by a strong low-pressure cell in the Bay of Bengal that has strengthened the southwest monsoon, will have a negative short-term impact on the Thai stock market. Krungsri economists estimate the impact at about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods affect 25% of Bangkok's GPP for one week, since Bangkok is the main economic area accounting for roughly 34% of GDP in 2024. They estimate that the SET is likely to fall by 0.25-0.5% in response, given the limited impact. The research team notes that the main severity occurred during the weekend holiday, and that mechanisms to reduce the impact now exist, such as working and studying from home, while the industrial sector, including industrial estates, has not yet seen any significant impact. However, the monsoon trough passing through the main EEC area must be monitored. As for dam water levels on 27 September 2026, they stood at 77% nationwide, compared with 88% on 27 September 2011, and water discharge through Nakhon Sawan province remains about 2-3 times lower than in 2011, leading to the assessment that compounding effects from water released from the North are unlikely to occur in 2026, with the risk picture significantly lower than in the severe flood year of 2011. Stocks that benefit in the short term include consumer staples retailers such as CPALL, mass transit, and groups that benefit from home repairs such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, SCC and TASCO. Groups viewed negatively include insurance, hire purchase, banking, tourism, aviation, property, restaurants and industrial estates. Krungsri picks Global Plays Energy Security stocks, namely TOP, PTTGC, IVL and the components maker DELTA, ahead of trading gains in consumer staples retailer CPALL, and recommends accumulating tourism stocks AWC and ERW on dips.

Wiwan Hemmontarop, Chairman of the Executive Committee of Panjawattana Plastic Public Company Limited, or PJW, told the Stock Vision news team that the company expects its operating results in 2027 to recover outstandingly, growing 100% from the current year, after recognizing a full year of revenue from new automotive model parts. PJW currently has total revenue of approximately 3.5 billion baht, of which the automotive parts business accounts for about 20%, or roughly 600 to 700 million baht per year, and this business is expected to grow about 50% or more next year to reach 1 billion baht, driven by production of parts for Japanese automakers, covering both hybrid and electric vehicles, with revenue gradually recognized starting last October. For the first three quarters of 2026, performance slowed due to a flat automotive market and higher plastic raw material costs, and full-year net profit is expected to fall by no more than 20% from the previous year, though the fourth quarter of 2026 should improve on the first nine months. In the packaging business, raw material price conditions are expected to ease in the fourth quarter of 2026 after Long Son Petrochemicals, or LSP, a plant under the SCC group, resumed operations, and the company began gradually adjusting selling prices to reflect actual costs starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, with full adjustment expected in the first quarter of next year. Meanwhile, the industrial laundry service business continues to grow steadily at about 10%.

The olefins plant of Rayong Olefins Company Limited, or ROC, a business within Siam Cement Group, or SCC, resumed operations on 17 September 2026 after a temporary shutdown that began on 10 March 2026 due to uncertainty in the Middle East region. Before restarting, ROC completed an assessment of operational readiness and safety standards. The restart is a positive signal for SCC, as olefins are a key upstream feedstock for its chemicals business, helping the company restore production capacity and manage its supply chain more continuously, reducing the impact of the shutdown and opening the way for the chemicals business to capture the benefits of an industry recovery. Krungsri Securities holds a positive view on ROC's return to production in late the third quarter of 2026, in line with the company's target, and maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 315 baht, listing SCC as one of its top picks expected to benefit from the petrochemical cycle recovery. Krungsri also sees SCC's strengths as extending beyond the ROC restart, supported by the ethane project scheduled for COD in the second half of 2027, its position as the only petrochemical operator with capacity expansion plans, with sales volumes expected to grow by an average of around 10% during 2026 to 2028 from the LSP plant, as well as the cement business benefiting from a higher share of Low Carbon Cement and government infrastructure investment, and the packaging business, which is likely to see margins recover. Krungsri estimates that these multiple supporting factors will drive SCC's normalized profit during 2026 to 2028 to grow at a CAGR of 110%.

The petrochemical business is starting to show signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2026, supported by buyers beginning to build up inventory ahead of the high-demand season. Although global demand remains under pressure from China and from Middle East conflicts that are affecting feedstock costs, the oversupply situation is beginning to ease significantly. Meanwhile, the restart of the olefins plant of Rayong Olefins Company Limited under SCC is seen as a positive signal and helps support the major maintenance shutdown plan for the MOC plant later this year. The key issue to watch is the progress of the feasibility study on cooperation between SCGC and PTTGC in the olefins and polyolefins business, which is expected to become clear by the end of September. If synergies materialise, they would boost competitiveness and earnings in the period ahead. The research team assigns a fair value of 310 baht per share for SCC and 42 baht per share for PTTGC.

Kasikorn Securities, or KS, expects the Thai stock index to trade in a range of 1570-1620 points this week, anticipating a market recovery after the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the Fed raised interest rates as the market had expected. Meanwhile, inflation signals are starting to show signs of slowing, helped by crude oil prices beginning to correct after Saudi Arabia rerouted crude exports through Oman and accelerated the restoration of the East-West pipeline, easing supply concerns. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back below 5%, supporting further speculative appetite for risk assets. In addition, the market is watching for domestic economic stimulus measures, with the Thai Chai Thai Plus program expected to be extended by another two months this week, which is positive sentiment for the domestic economy and provides further support for the cost of living. KS therefore continues to view pullbacks as opportunities to gradually accumulate stocks, selecting SCC and BGRIM as its top picks for the week. For SCC, the base price is set at 276.00 baht, supported by positive momentum from the announcement that Rayong Olefins, or ROC, will restart its olefins plant, which is expected to have a positive effect on earnings estimates going forward, along with additional support from the packaging business SCGP, which is showing more positive trends from the return of Fajar and improving selling prices, as well as ongoing M&A. SCC currently trades at a PBV of 0.8 times. For BGRIM, the base price is set at 22.00 baht after it adjusted electricity charges to link with gas prices for industrial user customers by about 50% starting in June, helping to preserve spark spread, and it plans to gradually convert customer contracts to a permanent gas-linked basis. Meanwhile, the data center business will support growth from 2027, with excess capacity of about 100MW that can serve additional demand from industrial user customers and data centers. BGRIM's own data center is expected to see Phase 1 reach commercial operation in the first quarter of 2027 and ramp up to full capacity of 48MW in the second quarter of 2027, though initially it may still record losses from low utilization.

An analysis of the construction contractor sector by Asia Plus Securities indicates that the passage of the annual budget expenditure bill for fiscal year 2027, worth 3.788 trillion baht, marks the start of a new round of accelerated public investment, with investment spending reaching approximately 789 billion baht, or 20.8% of the total budget. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport is preparing to push forward a total of 262 investment projects covering roads, railways, electric trains, ports, and airports. Local budgets of nearly 395 billion baht will help increase construction and maintenance work in the regions. The brokerage views the construction contractor group as the most direct beneficiary and assesses that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, and STECON Group Public Company Limited, or STECON, are the most closely linked to the acceleration of budget disbursement. It recommends "Buy" on CK with a fair value of 24 baht and "Buy" on STECON with a fair value of 23 baht. For the construction materials group, it views SCC, SCCC, and TASCO as beneficiaries, with TASCO set to gain support from budgets for road and highway network maintenance. Meanwhile, Pi Securities has a consistent view, saying it is beginning to see positive signals for a new round of government auctions. Since the start of 2026, CK has signed new work that is largely additional work from existing projects worth only about 870 million baht, causing its backlog to fall from more than 168 billion baht early in the year to about 146 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026. However, the direction of new work has become clearer after the Cabinet resolved on September 1, 2026, to approve the continuation of three double-track railway projects with a combined value of more than 106 billion baht, comprising the Chumphon-Surat Thani section worth 36.892 billion baht, the Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction section worth 61.534 billion baht, and the Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar section worth 8.371 billion baht. Bidding is expected to open in early 2027. These projects are part of Phase 2 of the double-track railway program, which has six projects in total. Pi Securities views the opening of bidding for double-track railway projects worth more than 100 billion baht as an opportunity for CK to bid for all of them, expecting the three projects to be divided into about five contracts. If it wins new work, this would be upside to Pi Securities' 2027 revenue forecast of 42.134 billion baht, since the forecast does not yet include the new work to come. In addition, CK has the opportunity to win two other large projects related to Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM: the installation of systems for the Purple Line South electric train, worth approximately 30 billion baht, and the Double Deck expressway project, worth approximately 35 billion baht. Pi Securities maintains its "Buy" recommendation on CK with a fair value of 23.10 baht, based on 1.3 times its 2026 book value.

Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, announced that Rayong Olefins Company Limited, or ROC, has completed the restart of its olefins plant on 17 September 2026, after a temporary shutdown caused by the situation in the Middle East region. Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCC, said ROC had successfully begun the plant restart process after assessing operational readiness and safety standards. An analysis by Bualuang Securities views the news as positive, because ROC's restart will help offset the reduced olefins production capacity of the Map Ta Phut Olefins plant, or MOC, which will decline due to planned maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter of 2026, keeping olefins output in the fourth quarter of 2026 roughly flat compared with the third quarter of 2026 and helping preserve the company's profitability during that period. The broker maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 332 baht.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that foreign fund flows continue to exit the Thai stock market, with foreign investors holding accumulated short positions of 48,269 contracts over the past 5 days and net selling for 3 consecutive trading days totaling over 5.2 billion baht. Technically, the SET index is forming a head and shoulders pattern, a negative signal, with the decisive neckline at 1,573 points. A break below would confirm a downtrend and risk a deeper correction testing support at 1,560 points, with a technical target of 1,520 points. However, to confirm a reversal, it must first break through resistance at 1,610 points. Additionally, the market faces overhang from Delta Taiwan's announcement of a convertible bond issuance worth up to 1.5 billion dollars, 2.86 times larger than the previous round and with a lower premium. Such deals have previously dragged Delta Thai down 6% intraday and 14.4% in T+3, and every 1 baht decline in Delta pulls the SET index down by about 1 point. The research department also recommends 3 standout stocks: BBL from the prolonged high interest rate environment and a PBV of only 0.6 times, ERW from the benefits of a weakening baht and the Thai Tiew Thai Plus project, and SCC from speculation on progress in the olefins business merger with PTTGC within this month.

SCG presented its Public-Private-People Partnership (4P) model and its Area-based Approach through the case study of the Saraburi Sandbox on two major stages: GCNT EXPO 2026, under the theme "From SHOCK to SHIFT – Thailand's Sustainable Transition in a Fractured World," and a panel discussion at The Bangkok Business Summit 2026: Reinvent Thailand, Resilient ASEAN. Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCG, said that SCG began its transition to a low-carbon economy by tackling carbon reduction in its cement business, an industry that is hard to decarbonize. The company therefore developed technologies in its production processes, such as replacing nearly 50% of coal with biomass fuels and lowering production temperatures, while maintaining product efficiency, strength, and durability. SCG expanded its collaboration from the business level to the industry level through the Thai Cement Manufacturers Association, or TCMA, together with the Saraburi Provincial Industrial Council and Saraburi Province, to develop the Saraburi Sandbox as a model low-carbon city area, covering waste management, the use of agricultural residues, expansion of green spaces, and promotion of eco-tourism. The Saraburi Sandbox has gained global recognition, having been selected to join the World Economic Forum's Transitioning Industrial Clusters Initiative and featured as an ASEAN case study in the WEF White Paper 2026, while also expanding cooperation with Princeton University, the GCCA, and UNIDO on energy transition, technology, and green finance. Thammasak said the next goal is to apply the lessons from the Saraburi Sandbox's 4P model to suit the context of each area, in order to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy nationwide.

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expects the SET to move within a Sideways/Up range today, with resistance at 1,626 and 1,632 points and support at 1,610 and 1,605 points. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices this morning are hovering near the psychological resistance of 100 US dollars, following the prolonged war, which may pressure De-escalation-themed stocks and increase caution towards risk assets due to inflation and interest rate concerns. However, the average crude oil price this year at 87 dollars remains positive for SET market earnings if the full-year assumption stays below 95 dollars. The energy and energy security sectors are the standout themes, while fund flows have been net buyers of Thai stocks for 5 out of the last 6 trading days. The baht has strengthened to 32.9 baht per dollar, supported by the upcoming ECB meeting tomorrow, which is expected to raise interest rates, and the PDP2026 plan, which is expected to proceed, as well as the Thai Tiew Thai Plus project, which has reached a conclusion. Recommended stocks include DELTA, GPSC, and SCC.

Siam Cement Group (SCC) is nearing the conclusion of its study on the merger of olefins and polyolefins businesses between its chemical arm, SCG Chemicals (SCGC), and PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), expected within the third quarter of 2026. Analysts at Asia Plus Securities note that the market is focusing on the structure of the joint venture, including shareholding ratios, debt structure, and potential synergies. Meanwhile, approval from competition regulators remains a key factor that could affect the form and timeline of the transaction. The Rayong Olefins plant (ROC) has not yet resumed operations due to uncertainties in the Middle East, while SCGC continues to operate its MOC plant and focuses on high-value-added products to maintain margins. The research house views this collaboration as an opportunity to enhance asset utilization and boost the competitiveness of Thailand's petrochemical industry, despite potential short-term pressure from volatile energy and transportation costs in the second half of 2026. It recommends buying SCC shares with a fair price of 310 baht per share.

Krungsri Securities stated that the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified market concerns over tight energy supply, particularly the ongoing disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. With global oil inventories at low levels, this supports crude oil prices and creates positive sentiment for energy and petrochemical stocks. Crude oil prices rose approximately 2-6% last week compared to the previous week, with potential for further gains in September 2026. For the refining business, the Singapore refining margin (SG GRM) declined 13% to about $9.2 per barrel, but is expected to stabilize in September due to Europe's demand for diesel restocking. In the petrochemical sector, HDPE and PP prices fell 4% and 2% to $418 and $474 per ton, respectively, while the price spreads for PX and BZ increased by 9% and 14%. The research division maintains a bullish view on the energy and petrochemical sectors, selecting SPRC, SCC, and PTTGC as top picks due to tight supply trends.

SCC, or Siam Cement Public Company Limited, has adjusted its plan to cope with the renewed conflict in the Middle East by increasing the proportion of raw material sourcing outside the Strait of Hormuz to about 80%, up from about 50%, to mitigate future risks. The company also confirmed its capital expenditure budget this year at 30 billion baht, with one-third allocated to improving the LSP project in Vietnam, which is the country's first integrated petrochemical complex. There are plans to accelerate construction to complete by mid-2027, earlier than the original end of next year. Meanwhile, EBITDA for 2026 is expected to exceed 56 billion baht, following 42.9 billion baht in the first half. Analysts from Yuanta Securities (Thailand) have given a "trading buy" recommendation with a target price of 290.00 baht, expecting 2026 profit of around 19 billion baht. They are also studying the feasibility of establishing a joint venture for the Olefins business between SCGC and PTTGC, with clarity expected in the third quarter of 2026.

The Ministry of Energy is preparing to cope with rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict, and is promoting greater use of E20 among the public. Thai Agro Energy Public Company Limited (TAE), as an ethanol producer, stated that this policy will benefit the company and the entire supply chain economy. It is estimated that shifting the proportion of E20 as the main fuel will add up to 100 billion baht in value to GDP. Meanwhile, the country's total ethanol production capacity is 7 million liters per day, but actual demand is only 3.6-3.7 million liters per day, representing a capacity utilization rate of 50-60%. Plants can increase production immediately without investing in new machinery. On investment strategy, Mr. Sorachai Pittayapruek, Director of Analysis at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, recommends waiting to accumulate energy stocks when prices correct. PTTEP is supported by the war and monsoon season, while refinery groups are likely to see refining margins decline from their peak of over 20 dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026. In the petrochemical group, PTTGC is a standout stock due to its cost advantage, and SCC benefits from the Long Son project in Vietnam.