PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited

Krungsri Securities said high US bond yields remain a drag on the market. This week the market is focused on the September 26 CPI inflation report, with the market expecting plus 3.6% year-on-year and plus 0.6% month-on-month, based on energy accounting for roughly 6.0-6.5% of the US inflation basket and September 26 crude oil prices rising 16% month-on-month, which suggests the market has already priced in some of the risk. The market is also waiting to assess the war situation, where news flow remains volatile, with the main view still that the war has passed its peak but will drag on at least until before the US midterm elections. Domestically, the market is waiting to monitor flooding, which is expected to have limited impact on the market if it is not severe. For this week's top picks, it recommends DELTA, PTTGC and SCC. DELTA has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on the accelerating AI investment cycle. PTTGC has a Bloomberg consensus target price of 63 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with SCC. SCC has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with PTTGC. Last week's top picks, DELTA, PTTGC and KBANK, delivered an average return of plus 2.43% versus plus 0.38% for the SET.

Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of Research in the Investment Strategy Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, said on the October 8, 2569 edition of the stock news program "Jad Talad" that the Thai stock market today is likely to move sideways, even as most Asian markets come under pressure from rising US government bond yields, along with concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts. The market still needs to watch US consumer inflation figures, or CPI, in the middle of next week. As for the MSCI index review in November, Krungsri's research team sees it as increasingly interesting, with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, having a chance to return to the MSCI index if its share price rises to around 6 baht, plus or minus, since its market capitalization adjusted for free-float proportion has already passed the preliminary threshold. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, which is currently in the MSCI Small Cap index, has a chance to move up to the MSCI Global Standard index after its share price continued to improve. Even using a stricter market capitalization threshold assumption of about 50% above the normal level, a share price of around 50 baht, plus or minus, would still likely pass the criteria, and PTTGC also has support from progress in setting up a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group, which could add upside of about 7 to 9 baht to its fundamental value. For standout stocks, Krungsri's research team recommends Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited, or KTB, on the domestic play theme; WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, on the trend of attracting foreign investment; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, on the trend of raising medical service fees in the social security system.

Siam Cement, or SCC, is drawing close attention after its share price jumped sharply on expectations of a major deal in the petrochemical business. CEO Thammasak Sethaudom said that on October 29, 2026, the company will disclose details of the JV structure between SCGC and PTTGC in the olefins and polyolefins business, covering both the transaction steps and the benefits of the deal. Although SCC's total revenue may decline, net profit, cash flow and EBITDA are likely to rise on better margins and synergies, while reducing duplication and costs and strengthening raw material supply. On the telecom side, Samart Telcom, or SAMTEL, has positive news, with CEO Jong Diloksombat moving ahead through Cycare Info Co., Ltd., an indirect subsidiary, after signing a contract with the IEAT worth 146.20 million baht for a project to establish a cyber operations center and data backup center, or DRC, at the SMART PARK industrial estate. Delivery is scheduled by April 27, 2027, adding to the backlog and supporting the cybersecurity theme. AssetWise, or ASW, is pressing ahead with business expansion after 39 Estate, in which ASW holds a 99.99% stake, acquired Chewathai Estate 3 from CHEWA, with the deal completed on October 6, 2026. ASW Chief Executive Officer Kamchet Wiphanpong is continuing to build on the real estate business, while CHEWA focuses on increasing cash flow amid liquidity concerns. A bondholders' meeting on October 7, 2026 has key agenda items including a waiver of default, an extension of the redemption date and adjustments to early redemption conditions. Kitti Ngamjettanarom, head of the technology executive team at AIS, Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, or ADVANC, believes the new-era network must move from a connectivity grid to a National Intelligent Infrastructure offering speed, stability, security and the ability to handle real-time data. AIS is moving ahead under its WISE Framework after launching 5G-ADVANCED, particularly Uplink 2CC, which now covers 100% of Bangkok, making the Thai capital the world's first capital city with citywide 5G-ADVANCED Uplink coverage. It also boosts upload speeds by up to two times and is expanding to all 77 provincial capitals, while Downlink 3CC, which combines the 2600, 700 and 2100 MHz bands, raises download speeds by up to 1.5 times and targets full Bangkok coverage by the end of 2026. On the investment side, Jirapaiboon Rattanaphanurak, Head of Wealth Research & Advisory at CIMB Thai Bank, or CIMBT, sees the fourth quarter of 2026 market facing pressure from inflation, oil prices and higher US bond yields, but still believes the market can cope thanks to strong listed-company earnings and momentum from AI investment. CIMBT has therefore upgraded its weighting on US and non-Japan Asian equities to Overweight and recommends a Barbell strategy combining Quality Growth stocks that benefit from AI with quality fixed income and alternative assets.

Shares of Siam Cement, or SCC, surged 6% to close at 265 baht, up 15 baht, on heavy trading value of 3.8368 billion baht. Meanwhile, PTT Global Chemical, or GC, closed at 53.25 baht, up 1 baht, or 1.91%, after CLSA issued an analysis following discussions with Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of SCC, on the company's business restructuring strategy. CLSA maintained its OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of 280 baht, viewing the joint venture with GC as positive even though SCC will hold less than 50%, as the larger asset base and synergies in raw material management and olefins production efficiency will support net profit over the long term and generate cash flow back to the parent company by 2028, helping reduce debt burden and support low-carbon businesses. Asia Plus Securities maintained its Buy rating with a fair value of 310 baht, noting that holding less than 50% means the JV will not be consolidated, improving balance sheet efficiency, while petrochemical profits will be recognized through larger Equity Income. InnovestX maintained its Neutral rating with a target price of 276 baht based on SOTP valuation, and noted that HDPE-naphtha prices rose 5% week-on-week this week to a two-month high of 443 US dollars per ton.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, has maintained its SET index target for the end of 2026 at 1,680-1,750 points, assessing that the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to recover strongly, driven by the start of a new investment cycle powered by AI technology, production base relocation, and energy security. As a result, credit growth in Asia has accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year, the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, Krungsri research has raised its forecast for Thailand's 2026 GDP to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment expected to expand 8.6% and exports expanding 14.0% year-on-year. Earnings of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 hit a record high, growing 12% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011. Krungsri Securities therefore recommends an overweight position in three main themes: stocks benefiting from the Asia-Thailand CAPEX Cycle, stocks with potential for NTM re-ratings, and stocks benefiting from a super El Niño. Its top picks for the fourth quarter are TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA, and KBANK, and it also recommends keeping an eye on mid-small cap stocks such as THAI HANA and ERW.

SCC shares rose 5.60% to 264.00 baht on October 7, 2026, buoyed by positive views on the SCG group's business restructuring and progress on a plan to establish a joint venture with PTTGC, as well as the Long Son Petrochemicals project, or LSP, in Vietnam. CLSA said the combination of large asset bases with PTTGC would create synergies on several fronts, including greater flexibility in raw material management, improved olefins production efficiency, and expansion into downstream businesses. It expects this to significantly boost cash flow back to the parent company by 2028. Meanwhile, the switch to ethane feedstock at the LSP project is nearly 70% complete and is likely to finish ahead of the original schedule. CLSA maintained its OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of 280 baht per share.

Thammasak Sethaudom, President and CEO of Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, said the baht's continued depreciation, recently averaging around 33.69 baht per dollar, is a positive for the company, since about 40% of SCC's revenue comes from overseas, which will clearly help lift that portion of revenue. As for cooperation between SCG Chemicals Public Company Limited, or SCGC, and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, in studying the merger of their olefins businesses, the various steps are progressing steadily, with details to be officially announced on October 29, 2026. The research team at Asia Plus Securities said the two sides have reached a preliminary agreement on the scope of the joint venture, or JV scope, and expects PTTGC to be the major shareholder in the joint venture while SCGC retains a significant stake. It recommends buying SCC shares with a target price of 310.00 baht. On business direction for 2026, SCC is maintaining its target for cash flow from normal operations, excluding special items, or EBITDA, at more than 55 billion baht, after achieving about 42.9 billion baht in the first half of this year. Currently, revenue from polyolefin products accounts for about 42%, while the chemicals business overall accounts for roughly 40–44%. In addition, SCC has set up a special-price home repair program, is supporting lower-priced construction materials, and is delivering assistance to communities around its plants to ease the impact of flooding in many areas of Thailand.

Two brokers flag energy and petrochemical stocks as standouts. Bualuang Securities recommends switching out of refinery stocks after prices already reflected high refining margins, and moving into petrochemicals, which remain laggards, highlighting IVL and PTTGC on a trend of tight supply in late 2026. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities recommends IVL, TOP, PTTGC and SCC on recovering product spreads. Singapore refining margins, or GRM, rebounded sharply by 8.22 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 6.78 US dollars per barrel, driven by shutdowns at some refineries in North Asia and export restrictions by China and Russia. On the petrochemical side, most product spreads improved on lower naphtha costs tracking oil prices, pushing the ethylene spread up to 286 US dollars per tonne, propylene to 311 US dollars per tonne, HDPE to 436 US dollars per tonne and PP to 541 US dollars per tonne. Within petrochemicals, only the PET chain, namely IVL, received positive factors. The house therefore maintains a BULLISH call on the energy and petrochemical sector, with top picks of TOP, SCC and PTTGC.

Refinery and petrochemical stocks led the market higher, with PTTGC at 51.75 baht, up 1.50 baht or 2.99%, and TOP at 74.50 baht, up 3 baht or 4.20%, as of around 11:20 a.m., after Saudi Aramco announced it would cut the price of Arab Light crude for November delivery to a discount of 5 dollars per barrel against the regional benchmark, up from a discount of 2 dollars in October. That marks the largest discount in six years, reflecting intensifying competition for market share in Asia's oil market. The market is watching whether lower crude costs will support refining margins and act as a positive factor for refinery stocks, especially TOP, while PTTGC drew speculative buying on the broader energy and petrochemical outlook. For GC shares, 16 analysts gave an average target price of 45.50 baht, with a high of 63 baht, and most recommended buying, with KGI Securities giving 53.50 baht and Asia Plus Securities giving 48 baht. For TOP, 20 analysts rated it, with 14 recommending buy and 5 hold, at an average price of 72.11 baht and a high of 88 baht.

Refining and petrochemical shares rallied strongly, with PTTGC at 52.00 baht, up 1.75 baht or 3.48%, TOP at 73.75 baht, up 2.25 baht or 3.15%, and IRPC at 3.00 baht, up 0.08 baht or 2.74%. The gains were driven by expectations of tighter refined fuel supply in Asia after Chinese refineries suspended exports of oil products in October 2026 to preserve domestic inventory levels, while PetroChina cancelled some gasoline and jet fuel exports. As a result, the Asian gasoline crack spread rose above 50 dollars per barrel against Brent crude, and the 10 ppm low-sulphur diesel crack spread climbed to above 87 dollars per barrel from around 22 dollars per barrel before geopolitical tensions flared. The situation is a direct positive for TOP, whose core business is refining, and for IRPC, which has an integrated refining and petrochemical business. PTTGC also has its own company-specific catalyst from progress in studying the formation of a joint venture for olefins and polyolefins in Thailand with SCGC, which has entered the confirmatory due diligence stage and is expected to finalise key details within October 2026, with PTTGC to be the major shareholder in the joint venture.

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market to recover this week and test resistance at 1,594-1,600 points, with support at 1,556-1,547 points, after the market has already priced in part of the US central bank's rising interest rate cycle, limiting volatility from external factors. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's September 2026 survey on the difficulty of finding a job came in at its lowest level in five years, signaling that US labor data late last week will begin to slow and that the chance of a positive surprise beyond market expectations of 100,000 plus or minus is limited. On the domestic front, the market is closely monitoring the flood situation, but reservoir levels and late-season rainfall show no unusually severe signals, so the market is expected to recover if flood impacts remain within normal levels. Top picks this week are DELTA, which benefits most from the AI CAPEX cycle with a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht; PTTGC, which has upside synergy from a petrochemical joint venture with SCC and a BB Consensus target price of 59 baht; and KBANK, whose share price has already reflected flood concerns with limited actual risk and a 2027 forecast target price of 300 baht. Last week's recommended stocks DELTA, AOT and AWC delivered an average return of negative 1.59%, still better than the SET Index, which fell 2.24%.

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

KGI Securities said there is a growing risk that the United States will ban diesel exports, after US retail diesel prices surged past US$6.50 per gallon on supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war. US officials indicated the government is considering measures to restrict diesel exports, though the format remains uncertain, ranging from a full export ban and partial caps to voluntary export reductions. Data from BCA Research dated September 24 showed US diesel exports hit a record 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026, and estimated that a full US export ban, combined with supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, would affect about 47% of global diesel exports. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 16% of global diesel exports, with most shipments going to Europe and South America. The research team views this possibility as a positive factor for sentiment on Thai refinery stocks, namely SPRC, TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two securities, STA and SCC. For STA, it recommends buying with a target price of 23.90 baht, assessing support at 20.6 and 21.3 and resistance at 23.0 and 23.4. It expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to rise year on year but fall quarter on quarter, owing to the high base in the second quarter of 2026 and some customers delaying orders to wait and see rubber prices. It expects continued support from the SICOM TSR20 rubber price, which rose from the previous quarter, while EUDR rubber sales volume is expected to increase to approximately 30,000 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026 from 17,214 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, and to rise to more than 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2026, helping support both ASP and GPM. For SCC, it recommends buying with a target price of 268 baht, assessing support at 248 and 252 and resistance at 266 and 270. SCC and PTTGC reported progress on the establishment of a joint venture, saying it is advancing well and has entered the due diligence stage to verify information, and that they are in the process of agreeing on the key terms of the transaction. The main asset scope of the joint venture covers olefins production plants, PE and PP production plants, and investments in the joint ventures of both parties, with PTTGC to be the major shareholder while SCGC will hold a significant stake. The view is positive, and the next progress announcement at the end of October regarding clarity on the shareholding proportions and the value of synergies will be a factor supporting the stock going forward.

Asia Plus Securities research has issued an analysis of PTTGC and SCC shares after both companies notified the Stock Exchange of Thailand of progress in their feasibility study on a strategic joint venture between PTTGC and SCGC in the olefins and polyolefins business in Thailand. The two parties have reached a preliminary agreement on the scope of the joint venture, or JV Scope. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the joint venture, while SCGC will retain a significant stake in the venture. The research team views this JV as a strategic reset for PTTGC during the downturn phase of the petrochemical cycle, helping to reduce downside risk from investing in new capacity expansion in a market that is in a state of oversupply and building leadership in the region's petrochemical business. PTTGC will reinforce strengths on the upstream and feedstock flexibility side, while SCGC will reinforce downstream, HVA and R&D. For SCC shares, the research team views that the key issue is not holding less than 50%, but rather the value of synergies and the economic returns from the JV. Not consolidating the financial statements may make the balance sheet more efficient, and petrochemical business profit would shift from recognition through EBITDA to equity income. The research team recommends trading PTTGC shares with a target price of 48 baht and recommends buying SCC shares with a fair value of 310 baht. Both companies will finalize key transaction details, such as the shareholding structure, operational steps and synergies, by the end of October 2026. The joint venture remains subject to internal approval by both companies, the final valuation and approval from shareholders and joint venture partners.

Koraphat Worachet, Head of Research at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said on the stock-focused market news program on October 1, 2026, that the Thai stock market has a chance to begin forming a base from now on if there are no additional significant negative factors from the flood situation. He assessed that overall water conditions have about a 65% chance of having already passed their peak, although some areas still face the risk of another round of flooding, the severity is not expected to exceed that of the past weekend. On the impact, KSS stated that water levels in the northern region that could flow down and add to the situation remain at about 70-75% of the level seen during the great flood of 2011, and if the impact is limited to one to two weeks, it could affect GDP by about 0.3%, compared with 2011, when the impact on GDP reached as much as about 3%. On investment strategy, KSS recommended six standout stocks: KBANK and KTB in the banking group, on the trend of large corporate customer loans growing in line with investment in data centers and AI infrastructure; KCE and DELTA in the electronic components group, with KSS raising its target price for KCE to 69.70 baht; PTTGC in the petrochemical group, on its joint venture cooperation with the Siam Cement Group and the chance of support from the MSCI index review in November; and COM7 in the consumer and finance group, on the trend of continued growth in smartphone and IT equipment sales. It also gave a support range for the SET Index at 1,545-1,550 points and a resistance level at 1,580 points.

PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, and Siam Cement Group, or SCC, announced that discussions on establishing a joint venture for olefins and polyolefins businesses in Thailand have entered the due diligence stage to verify information. This marks clear progress from the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding in April. The proposed joint venture would combine nearly all of the two groups' core olefins and polyolefins assets in Thailand. PTTGC would contribute its olefins production plant, its polyethylene, or PE, production plant, and its investment in HMC Polymers Company Limited. SCC would contribute its olefins production plant in Thailand, its PE and polypropylene, or PP, production plants, as well as SCGC's investments in various joint ventures, namely Siam Polyethylene Company Limited, Siam Synthetic Latex Company Limited, Thai MMA Company Limited, and Bangkok Synthetics Company Limited. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the joint venture, while SCGC would remain a significant shareholder. Key terms of the transaction are expected to be clarified by October 2026, including the shareholding structure, transaction procedures, and the expected value of the collaboration. After that, requests will be submitted to the Trade Competition Commission, as well as for internal approvals, shareholder approvals, and approvals from partners in the relevant joint ventures.

Shares of PTTGC and SCC rose after the latest progress in their petrochemical merger deal. As of 10:02 a.m., PTTGC was up 2.58%, gaining 1.25 baht to 49.75 baht, with trading value of 238.14 million baht, while SCC was up 1.18%, gaining 3.00 baht to 257.00 baht, with trading value of 187.38 million baht. InnovestX Securities said in an analysis that PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, and SCG Chemicals, or SCGC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Siam Cement, or SCC, are pressing ahead with the confirmatory due diligence process alongside negotiations on key transaction terms for the establishment of a joint venture in Thailand. The transaction covers the two companies' main petrochemical assets in Thailand, centered on the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate. PTTGC is expected to be the major shareholder in the new JV, while SCGC will hold a significant minority stake. Both parties have already defined the scope of assets. On the PTTGC side, this covers the olefins and polyolefins businesses in Thailand, namely olefins production plants, polyethylene production plants, and the investment in HMC Polymers, while the refinery business, aromatics business, biochemical business, and specialty chemicals business, mainly allnex, will remain under PTTGC. For SCGC, the scope comprises olefins production plants, polyethylene production plants, and polypropylene production plants, as well as SCGC's investments in joint ventures, namely Siam Polyethylene Company Limited, Siam Synthetic Latex Company Limited, Thai MMA Company Limited, and Bangkok Synthetics Company Limited. However, some of SCGC's joint ventures and SCC's Long Son Petrochemical, or LSP, plant are not included in this transaction. Both parties are assessing opportunities to create synergies and preparing to seek approval from the relevant joint venture partners. The disclosure of further details in October 2026 will help the market more accurately assess the positive impact on earnings, the effect on financial position, and the upside to the share value of both parent companies. Key information to be disclosed includes the final shareholding proportions between PTTGC and SCGC, the synergy assessment, the asset valuation method, and the accounting treatment and consolidation mechanism. The merger and full operational integration are expected around mid-2027 after receiving approval from the relevant regulators and shareholders. The transaction requires approval from the Trade Competition Commission, and the review process is expected to take about three to six months. However, management does not view obtaining trade competition approval as a significant obstacle to proceeding with the transaction, since petrochemical products are commodities traded in the global market and priced according to international market mechanisms, while the main purpose of setting up the JV is to improve operational efficiency rather than to control domestic prices. InnovestX Securities maintained its recommendation and target price, giving PTTGC a target price of 63 baht and maintaining a NEUTRAL recommendation on SCC with a target price of 276 baht.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Bualuang Securities stated that the Thai stock market has once again cleared the domestic political hurdle after the court ruled that the lawsuit over barcodes and QR codes on election ballots did not violate the constitution. It views that policies pursued over the past nine months can continue, and that the government's stable footing is a positive for the outlook of Thai equities going forward. It also noted that the market is beginning to see stocks rotate out of the banking group, in line with its recommendation to take profits for a trading round, and is starting to gradually take profits in the commodities group to rotate into the next group such as power producers. As for concerns over US bond yields approaching a peak, it assesses this as consistent with the statistical view, with the implication that a correction tends to follow after hitting a high for the month. It therefore maintains its recommendation to begin accumulating stocks that move inversely to bond yields, and has added power producers BGRIM and GPSC to the portfolio. Meanwhile, the average Dubai price last week fell 11.84 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, and Singapore refining margins recovered 3.17 US dollars per barrel week-on-week but remained negative at -1.44 US dollars per barrel. The highlight this week is the sharp recovery in petrochemical spreads across all products, with Ethylene up 34 US dollars per tonne to 278 US dollars per tonne, Propylene up 19 to 283 US dollars per tonne, HDPE up 94 to 423 US dollars per tonne, and PP up 164 to 523 US dollars per tonne, which outperformed the energy group this week. The NEX coal price rose 1% week-on-week to 143.92 US dollars per tonne, while the BDI gained 2% week-on-week to 3,432 points and Supramax rose 2% to 1,779 points. The World Container Index fell 1% week-on-week to 4,468 points. It also recommends switching from refinery stocks into petrochemicals, choosing IVL and PTTGC, while maintaining an equal weight in the energy group versus the market, an overweight in the petrochemical group, and an underweight in the shipping group.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Bualuang Securities reported that the average Dubai price last week fell 11.84 US dollars per barrel week-on-week to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, driven by expectations for negotiations to end the US-Iran war and by rising supply after Saudi Arabia restored the East-West pipeline. Meanwhile, Singapore refining margins recovered 3.17 US dollars per barrel week-on-week but remained negative at -1.44 US dollars per barrel. The highlight this week was a sharp rebound in petrochemical price spreads across every product tracked: Ethylene rose 34 US dollars per tonne to 278 US dollars per tonne, Propylene gained 19 to 283 US dollars per tonne, HDPE gained 94 to 423 US dollars per tonne, and PP gained 164 to 523 US dollars per tonne, a recovery more pronounced than in the energy group this week. On coal, the NEX price rose 1 percent week-on-week to 143.92 US dollars per tonne. Dry bulk freight rates improved, with the BDI up 2 percent week-on-week to 3,432 points and the Supramax index, a key indicator for PSL and TTA, up 2 percent to 1,779 points, while the World Container Index fell 1 percent week-on-week to 4,468 points. Given that refinery share prices have already priced in a high level of refining margins, the recommendation remains to switch from refinery stocks into petrochemicals, choosing IVL and PTTGC. The Red Sea blockade also continues to support freight rates and opens short-term trading opportunities in shipping stocks. The brokerage maintains an equal weight on the energy group, an overweight on petrochemicals, and an underweight on shipping.

Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the firm maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market, assessing that the SET still has an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could move close to its best-case index target of 1,780 points before shifting into a more range-bound movement. Under the base case, the SET is estimated at 1,710 points at the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. Three key drivers are the global technology trend, the upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows. Capital expenditure plans by major cloud service providers are expected to grow 93% in 2026 and another 41% in 2027, while Thailand's electronics exports are expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027. For the fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a Barbell Strategy is recommended, focusing on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, alongside the power group GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, before gradually shifting to sector rotation and stock selection in the first half of 2027 and increasing the weighting of dividend stocks as the core of the portfolio in the second half of 2027.

Analysts at KGI Securities (Thailand) have raised their best-case target price for SCC to 381 baht, assuming a stronger recovery in the Chinese market and lower feedstock costs. They see SCC's profit base expanding well beyond chemicals, after core profit peaked at 47 billion baht in 2021, when chemicals accounted for about 60% of the total, before falling to 5 billion baht in 2025 amid weaker product spreads and operating costs at the LSP plant in the first half of 2026. The group's EBITDA share from chemicals fell to 36% from 45% in 2021, while SCGP and CBM, which includes SCGD, saw their combined EBITDA share rise to 55% from 49%. The switch to US ethane at LSP should structurally lower SCGC's cost base and add margins of about 200 to 250 dollars per tonne, with further upside from a possible joint venture between SCGC and PTTGC through feedstock integration. Core profit for SCC is expected to grow 287%, 7% and 27% in 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively, while core EBITDA is forecast to grow 30%, 5% and 10% over the same period, lifting EBITDA margin to 11.5%, 12.1% and 12.8% respectively. The analysts maintain a buy rating with a target price of 305 baht and a worst-case target of 117 baht, reflecting risks of renewed oversupply, a global economic slowdown and feedstock shortages.

PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, successfully offered two tranches of bonds with a combined value of 17 billion baht, comprising a 7-year tranche with a coupon of 2.65% per year worth 7.578 billion baht and a 10-year tranche with a coupon of 3.00% per year worth 9.422 billion baht. Both tranches received a credit rating of AA-(tha) from Fitch Ratings (Thailand). The company plans to use the proceeds from this bond issuance to replace cash that was set aside to repay debt. This fundraising is part of the debt-reduction plan that PTTGC has been pursuing continuously since 2023, having cut interest-bearing debt by more than 116 billion baht, bringing interest-bearing debt down to approximately 149 billion baht as of June 2026. Meanwhile, on August 24, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on PTTGC's credit rating from Negative to Positive, reflecting a more favorable view of the company's financial position. The company will use this strength to expand its Specialty business as well as its Green & Bio operations, aiming to upgrade its portfolio toward high-value products and low-carbon businesses over the long term.

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the decline in Singapore reference refining margins is temporary. Margins fell from more than 20 US dollars per barrel at the start of the US-Iran conflict to around 7 US dollars per barrel, driven by seasonally weaker demand and increased exports of refined oil products from China. However, the refined products market is expected to tighten as winter approaches, supporting a recovery in Singapore refining margins in late the fourth quarter of 2026, with middle distillates as the main driver, given low diesel inventories, seasonally rising energy demand, low European natural gas inventories, and the possibility that European refineries will reduce runs. For the longer-term outlook, Kasikorn Securities expects global excess refining capacity to fall from 5.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to 4.7 million barrels per day by 2028, which would help Singapore refining margins gradually improve to 7–8 US dollars per barrel. On domestic factors, Kasikorn Securities estimates that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices by 4 baht per litre could reduce profits of refinery companies by about 4–10%. Although it views the share price decline as having largely reflected that impact, there remains risk of further intervention if crude oil prices and diesel price spreads rise sharply. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities Company Limited stated that as of September 20, 2026, the Fuel Fund had a negative position of 92,300 million baht, comprising a negative oil account of 52,300 million baht and a negative liquefied petroleum gas account of 40,000 million baht, with average daily obligations of about 700 million baht. There is therefore a chance the fund's position will exceed a negative 100,000 million baht by the end of September, after the previous 20,000 million baht loan facility was fully used. It also stated that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices for B0, B7, and B20 diesel by 4 baht per litre, effective from September 16 to October 31, 2026, is an issue to watch, especially the possibility of extending the measure after that period, which could add pressure on TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC. Amid those risks, Kasikorn Securities still picks Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, as its top stock in the sector, citing attractive valuation and long-term profit growth potential from clean energy projects, with a "Buy" recommendation and a target price of 75.20 baht.

Krungsri Securities said the Thai stock market between 21 and 24 September 2026 moved above the 1,600-point level, supported by positive expectations that the US leader will meet the Chinese leader on 24-25 September, which boosts the prospect of further trade easing. Meanwhile, the electronics group gained positive momentum from AI after President Trump confirmed that the US will continue developing AI despite safety concerns, together with a boost from META's new AI that is helping accelerate demand. The refinery and petrochemical group, such as TOP, SPRC and PTTGC, rose on news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, which if implemented would tighten diesel supply in the market and push refining margins higher. The banking group, such as KBANK and BBL, also rose on positive sentiment, supported by news that Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness to Stable while keeping the credit rating at BBB+. The groups that fell more sharply than others included retail, such as CRC and CPALL, which faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure, and exporters such as CPF, whose share price fell in line with Chinese hog prices, which dropped 1.8% week-on-week to RMB 10.64 per kg, or 53.00 baht per kg, from a cost of RMB 13.50 per kg, because of oversupply. Meanwhile, Thai hog prices were flat week-on-week at 75.50 baht per kg, against a cost of 60.00 baht per kg. Market earnings for 2026F stood at 110.9 baht, up slightly week-on-week, with the groups whose estimates were revised up being petrochemicals and packaging, while the groups revised down were agriculture and property. Last week, capital flowed out of Asia excluding Japan by a total of 1.661 billion dollars, with Thailand seeing an outflow of 95 million dollars, split into net stock sales of 107.5 million dollars and net bond buying of 12 million dollars. The baht was flat at 33.3 baht.

Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities, told "Than Hoon" that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for at least another six months, with a base-case floor of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel and a chance of swinging up to 80 to 90 dollars per barrel. He noted that commercial and strategic petroleum reserves in many countries around the world have fallen to very low levels. He also pointed out that a key window of roughly one to two months could see the opposing sides return to the negotiating table, under pressure from the U.S. general election and the start of winter. Even if talks conclude, repairing damaged production facilities in Russia and the Middle East will take time, meaning supply will not recover quickly over the next six months. On investment strategy, he still favors the energy and refinery groups, viewing the government's move to skim 4 baht per liter from refining margins as a negative but tolerable factor, because global refining margins, or GRM, remain above 10 dollars per barrel and the diesel crack spread is around 50 dollars per barrel. PTT is the top pick, while TOP is given a fundamental target price of 88 baht, BCP just over 75 baht, and SPRC 15.50 baht. For petrochemicals, he recommends focusing on stocks that also have refineries, seeing IRPC and PTTGC as beneficiaries, followed by IVL.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

The petrochemical business is starting to show signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2026, supported by buyers beginning to build up inventory ahead of the high-demand season. Although global demand remains under pressure from China and from Middle East conflicts that are affecting feedstock costs, the oversupply situation is beginning to ease significantly. Meanwhile, the restart of the olefins plant of Rayong Olefins Company Limited under SCC is seen as a positive signal and helps support the major maintenance shutdown plan for the MOC plant later this year. The key issue to watch is the progress of the feasibility study on cooperation between SCGC and PTTGC in the olefins and polyolefins business, which is expected to become clear by the end of September. If synergies materialise, they would boost competitiveness and earnings in the period ahead. The research team assigns a fair value of 310 baht per share for SCC and 42 baht per share for PTTGC.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.