Krungsri expects SET to recover and test 1,594-1,600 points, watching floods and US labor data

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market to recover this week and test resistance at 1,594-1,600 points, with support at 1,556-1,547 points, after the market has already priced in part of the US central bank's rising interest rate cycle, limiting volatility from external factors. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's September 2026 survey on the difficulty of finding a job came in at its lowest level in five years, signaling that US labor data late last week will begin to slow and that the chance of a positive surprise beyond market expectations of 100,000 plus or minus is limited. On the domestic front, the market is closely monitoring the flood situation, but reservoir levels and late-season rainfall show no unusually severe signals, so the market is expected to recover if flood impacts remain within normal levels. Top picks this week are DELTA, which benefits most from the AI CAPEX cycle with a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht; PTTGC, which has upside synergy from a petrochemical joint venture with SCC and a BB Consensus target price of 59 baht; and KBANK, whose share price has already reflected flood concerns with limited actual risk and a 2027 forecast target price of 300 baht. Last week's recommended stocks DELTA, AOT and AWC delivered an average return of negative 1.59%, still better than the SET Index, which fell 2.24%.

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