Price Action

One year has passed since the massive crash in the cryptocurrency market on October 10, 2025, and liquidity in Bitcoin and Ethereum is recovering, CoinDesk reported based on its analysis of buy and sell orders on major centralized exchanges. The study found that the value of buy and sell orders near the current prices of both assets exceeded levels on the day of the crash, while order values for the other altcoins examined continued to decline and spot trading volumes also fell below levels seen at the time, showing uneven recovery across the market. The sharp sell-off on October 10, 2025 came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, with BTC falling from around $122,600 to briefly below $105,000, triggering the forced liquidation of more than $19 billion in leveraged positions in a single day. As of October 7, BTC orders within 1% above and below the current price totaled about $11.7 million, up roughly 75% from the day of the crash, while ETH also rose about 75% within the same range to reach about $5.3 million. Meanwhile, among the altcoins examined, order values within 5% above and below the price fell by about one-third from the start of 2025 to about $2 million, and orders within 1% declined by about one-sixth. Weekly spot trading volume on centralized exchanges averaged about $279 billion over the four weeks through September 27, down about two-thirds from about $801 billion in the week of the crash.

Tenable Holdings has paired a fresh AI security rollout with a high profile board appointment, giving investors new information on both product direction and governance in the AI driven cybersecurity market. The news lands on a rising share price, with a 1-day share price return of 6.61% and a 30-day share price return of 38.13% feeding into an 82.97% year-to-date share price gain, even though the 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns of 2.87% and 18.21% respectively show a weaker longer run record. Tenable Holdings closed at $41.59 while the most followed narrative pegs fair value at $35.35, an 18% overvaluation. The company's ability to consolidate multiple asset types, including VM, cloud, identity, OT and AI security, in a single platform is resulting in larger deal sizes and growing enterprise adoption, directly impacting top-line growth and average selling prices. Still, heavy exposure to U.S. Federal and public sector budgets, alongside intense platform competition from larger cybersecurity vendors, could quickly challenge the momentum story.

CVS Health is expanding its pharmacy-focused format by opening nearly 20 smaller neighborhood locations across the United States in 2026, including a new Roxbury site in the Boston area. The expansion comes as recent headlines have sent mixed signals for investors, with Medicare Advantage star rating setbacks and a legal probe weighing on sentiment, while an extended Cardinal Health distribution deal and a reaffirmed dividend provide a steadier backdrop. Even after a one-day share price decline of 1.87% and a 30-day share price return down 8.98%, the year-to-date share price return of 7.53% and a one-year total shareholder return of 14.11% indicate that longer term holders have still seen gains as shorter term momentum has faded. On the most followed view, CVS Health screens as undervalued, with a fair value of $124 against a last close of $86.16. The company has raised full-year guidance twice through the first half of 2026, Aetna's medical benefit ratio has improved, cash flow is running well ahead of plan, and all three operating segments are growing, though the story could break if Aetna's medical cost trend runs hotter than expected or if pharmacy benefit reforms compress Health Services earnings faster than planned.

Krungsri Securities said high US bond yields remain a drag on the market. This week the market is focused on the September 26 CPI inflation report, with the market expecting plus 3.6% year-on-year and plus 0.6% month-on-month, based on energy accounting for roughly 6.0-6.5% of the US inflation basket and September 26 crude oil prices rising 16% month-on-month, which suggests the market has already priced in some of the risk. The market is also waiting to assess the war situation, where news flow remains volatile, with the main view still that the war has passed its peak but will drag on at least until before the US midterm elections. Domestically, the market is waiting to monitor flooding, which is expected to have limited impact on the market if it is not severe. For this week's top picks, it recommends DELTA, PTTGC and SCC. DELTA has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on the accelerating AI investment cycle. PTTGC has a Bloomberg consensus target price of 63 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with SCC. SCC has a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht on upside from building synergies through a petrochemical joint venture with PTTGC. Last week's top picks, DELTA, PTTGC and KBANK, delivered an average return of plus 2.43% versus plus 0.38% for the SET.

Jim Cramer said $30 is a good level to buy Chipotle Mexican Grill, telling a Mad Money caller on October 7 that he is probably one of the few people who thinks so. Chipotle reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $3.3 billion, up 9.3%, with comparable restaurant sales up 2.2% on a 1% increase in transactions and a 1.2% rise in average check, and management raised its full-year comparable-sales outlook to low-single-digit growth while maintaining plans for 350 to 370 restaurant openings. Profitability has not kept pace: food, beverage and packaging costs rose to 29.7% of revenue from 28.9%, labor costs rose to 25% from 24.7%, quarterly net income fell to $403.5 million from $436.1 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was unchanged at $0.33. On October 8, Chipotle shares rose approximately 6% after a report that Starbucks had explored a takeover, though Starbucks declined to comment and no acquisition agreement was announced. The stock trades at approximately 25.8x forward earnings, versus 17.9x for McDonald's and 22.4x for Yum! Brands, while hedge fund holders fell to 63 in the second quarter from 68 in the first, with Arrowstreet Capital the most prominent holder at 24.24 million shares and short interest at 3.60% of the public float.

Tesla delivered 95,366 China-made electric vehicles in September, a 5% increase from 90,812 vehicles a year earlier that extended its year-over-year growth streak to 11 consecutive months. The Shanghai factory shipped Model 3 and Model Y vehicles to China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Canada during the month, according to Reuters, citing the China Passenger Car Association. Third-quarter deliveries from Shanghai rose 13.7%, even as Tesla's worldwide deliveries fell 2.1% from the record-setting quarter last year. To support demand in China, Tesla is offering promotions through October, with selected Model Y versions qualifying for a 7,000-yuan reduction on final payments and every Model 3 variant receiving 5,000 yuan off. The gains come amid intensifying competition in China, where Tesla's retail sales fell 12.4% year-over-year in August to 50,047 units, its weakest August since 2022, leaving it ranked fifth behind market leader BYD with 233,943 units.

Dell Technologies has extended one of the most notable large-cap tech rallies, closing at $578.96 on October 7 and rising almost 360% in 2026, far outpacing the broader S&P 500. The company delivered a record-breaking second quarter for fiscal 2027, with topline revenue jumping 58% year-over-year to $47 billion as AI-optimized server revenue doubled to $16.4 billion. Over the trailing twelve months Dell has generated $151.2 billion in cumulative revenue, though its roughly 9.4% operating margin and 7.52% net margin remain well below typical software or chip peers. In September the company's investment-grade bond sale was massively oversubscribed, upsized from an initial $4 billion target to $5 billion amid strong demand tied to its AI server business. Institutional sentiment remains strong, with 77 hedge funds holding positions at the end of Q2 2026 versus 72 in Q1 2026, and BlackRock the largest stakeholder at 24.09 million shares as of June 30. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 31.99x, dropping to 21.32x on forward earnings, leaving less room for disappointment after the big run.

MSCI has launched SignalLab, a data platform built to centralize more than 600 research-grade investment signals and tools for testing ideas at scale. The launch comes after a mixed stretch for MSCI's stock, with the share price up 5.44% over the last week but down 6.55% over the past three months and close to flat year to date, while the 1-year total shareholder return of 4.81% points to modest gains. MSCI closed at $565.12, and the prevailing narrative pegs fair value at $762.58, framing SignalLab against a business already seen as materially underpriced on cash generation and margins. The company produces roughly $800+ million in quarterly revenue and generates EBITDA margins above 60%, though the narrative could crack if asset-based fee growth slows or client budgets tighten for premium data and analytics like SignalLab. The current P/E sits at 30.3x, more expensive than the peer average of 26.3x and roughly double the fair ratio of 14.9x, while the broader US Capital Markets group carries an average P/E of 39.2x.

Kyoritsu Maintenance has released preliminary sales figures for August and the year to date that are higher than those reported for the same periods in 2025. The update arrived alongside a stretch of rising market interest, with the shares up 13.97% year to date and 13.21% over 90 days, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 63.39% points to momentum built gradually over time. The stock closed at ¥3,279, and on a P/E of 16.4x it is valued at a lower earnings multiple than both its sector and the broader hospitality peer group, whose average P/E stands at 21.7x, against an estimated fair P/E of 22.3x. The SWS DCF model points the other way, with the shares sitting well above an estimated future cash flow value of ¥730.86, implying the stock screens as overvalued on a cash flow basis. Kyoritsu Maintenance relies heavily on Japan-based demand and broad exposure to hospitality and development cycles, which can pressure earnings if conditions weaken.

Fluxys Belgium reported half year 2026 sales of €342.97 million and net income of €46.78 million, with higher basic earnings per share than a year earlier. The shares now trade at €21.2, up 1.44% over one day and 3.41% over seven days, though the 30-day return is down 5.78%; the 90-day return is 8.16% and the year-to-date gain is 10.99%. The stock carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6x, above the 12.5x peer group average and the 13.9x average for the broader European oil and gas industry, while revenue is expected to decline 2.8% per year. A discounted cash flow model values the shares at €1.5 each, far below the current price. Over one year total shareholder return is 16.66%, against a broadly flat 3-year total shareholder return of 0.09% and a 5-year total shareholder return that declined 18.04%.

Flex has secured a new undrawn US$3.3b senior term loan facility with Citibank and other lenders, tied to its planned EPC Power Corp acquisition and subject to rating-based covenants. The facility lands as the company's share price momentum cools after a strong run, with a 1 day return of 4.44% and a 7 day return of 2.76% clawing back some ground after an 11.76% decline over the past 90 days. Longer term enthusiasm remains far stronger, with a year to date share price return of 88.18%, a 1 year total shareholder return of 111.75% and a 5 year total shareholder return above 7x. Flex last closed at $119.83, while the most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at $130.26, implying the stock trades at a discount. The company is positioning itself as a higher-margin engineered-solutions partner across AI infrastructure, supply chain nearshoring and energy transition power management, though it faces risks if large AI infrastructure projects are delayed or if the CPI spin off fails to secure strong standalone investor support.

Comcast announced in late September 2026 that it is running Fastly's content and application delivery software directly on its nationwide AI-powered edge network to help NBCUniversal's Peacock stream high-demand live sports and events closer to viewers. The deployment embeds Fastly's platform inside Comcast's more than 200 edge compute centers, a setup the companies say could also support gaming, cybersecurity, AI inference, and enterprise cloud services. Fastly shares gained 13.52% over the seven days following the news. The partnership gives tangible proof of Fastly's closer-to-the-user pitch, though the company remains loss-making and carries a relatively new management team, leaving execution and valuation in focus. Five Simply Wall St Community fair values for Fastly range from about US$5 to over US$36.

Almonty Industries has cleared the final regulatory hurdle for commercial operations at its Sangdong processing plant in South Korea, opening the door to tungsten concentrate sales under a long-term offtake agreement. More than 90% of Phase I output is already committed to Global Tungsten & Powders for 21 years, and the certification arrives while tungsten prices are described as being at historic highs. The stock has been volatile, with a 30 day share price return down 35.24% and a 7 day move lower by 11.42%, though the year to date share price return is 34.89% and the 1 year total shareholder return is 53.16%. Almonty closed at $11.87, while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $15.26 using a 9.15% discount rate. The main condition for success is the ramp up and optimization of Sangdong and Los Santos, alongside effective use of the US$800m convertible notes and the Rwanda joint venture.

Ameriprise Financial has approved a new US$5.5b share repurchase authorization, a move that puts the stock's recent pullback in focus. The shares have eased roughly 9.3% over the past 30 days, even as the 1-year total shareholder return stands at 5.8% and the 5-year total shareholder return is about 85.7%. The most followed narrative pegs fair value at $579.45 using an 8.04% discount rate, compared with the latest close at $500.51, implying the stock is 14% undervalued. The company has returned approximately 85% to 90% of adjusted operating earnings to shareholders over time, illustrated by capital return of 88% and 91% of operating earnings in Q1 and Q2 2026, a 6% dividend increase, and repurchases of 3.3 million shares in the first half of 2026. The story could be knocked off course if adviser turnover continues to drain client assets or if asset management outflows remain elevated and put pressure on fees.

XP Inc. shares climbed 49.86 percent week-on-week to top US market gainers after Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's unexpected win in the first round of Brazil's general elections. Bolsonaro took 47 percent of Sunday's vote and will face leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who received 45 percent, in an October 25 runoff, with markets favoring Bolsonaro's more pro-business stance. XP jumped to a fresh four-year high of $32.29 on Friday before closing up 6.67 percent at $32.22. UBS issued a buy recommendation on XP on Thursday with a $37 price target, a 14.8 percent upside from the latest close and a 48 percent increase from its previous $25 fair value assessment. The rally spread to other Brazilian equities including Banco Bradesco, PagSeguro Digital, and StoneCo Ltd. after JPMorgan upgraded Brazilian stocks to overweight, reversing its August downgrade to neutral, citing reduced political uncertainty and potential gains of 12 to 20 percent. XP is expected to report third-quarter results in the week of November 16 to 20, 2026, after second-quarter net income rose 5 percent to R$1.384 billion and net revenues grew 9 percent to R$4.884 billion year-on-year.

InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, released an analysis recommending a Selective Buy investment strategy on the Domestic Play theme after the SET ended September with a sharp plunge below 1,600 points, hitting a more than three-month low near 1,550 points. It attributed the pressure to three factors: bond yields holding high, pressuring the baht and fund flows, with foreign investors recording continuous net selling in the Thai stock market from September 22 to 29, 2026 totaling almost 20 billion baht; valuations that have begun to look stretched after the index rose about 27% year-to-date in the first nine months of 2026, driven mainly by buying in the energy group, up 38.5% year-to-date, banks, up 32.4% year-to-date, and electronics, up 53.5% year-to-date; and concerns over flooding that could affect asset quality and raise NPL risk. On investment approach, it recommends temporarily avoiding big-cap stocks that have already risen sharply and focusing instead on Domestic Play stocks tied to domestic consumption, namely the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the healthcare group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE. October will meanwhile mark the start of the full high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, beginning with Golden Week, when Chinese travelers favor trips to Thailand, combined with tailwinds from Europeans starting their winter getaways and domestic long holidays. There is also upside from global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings and the Tomorrowland music festival, which will support tourist numbers and tourism revenue accelerating higher. InnovestX assesses that the tourism sector will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 and carry positive momentum into the first half of 2027, and therefore recommends looking for opportunities to buy for trading gains in stocks that benefit directly from tourism, namely AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased spending, namely CPALL, CRC, CPN, HTC and ICHI.

CrowdStrike Holdings announced that its Falcon cybersecurity platform is now available in the OpenAI Marketplace, giving enterprise customers another route to deploy its tools. The company's shares have climbed 32.36% over the past 30 days and 46.94% over 90 days, contributing to a 142.55% year-to-date increase and a one-year total shareholder return of 122.86%. CrowdStrike last closed at $275.04, against a most-followed fair value estimate of $235.67 that uses an 8.59% discount rate and implies the stock is 17% overvalued. The company is pushing beyond endpoint security into next generation SIEM, identity, cloud security and exposure management, each already contributing hundreds of millions of ARR. Investors are counting on those businesses to scale toward multi billion dollar ARR and support higher long term revenue and profit margins from a broader security platform.

Pobchai Pattarawich, equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Securities Research, said the Thai stock market has still not been able to recover and stand above 1,600 points, even though some recovery has been seen, with the main support still concentrated in electronic component stocks. Meanwhile, further upside remains significantly limited because the market still lacks new positive factors and faces macroeconomic pressure from abroad, including US bond yields holding above 5% and Brent crude oil prices staying at high levels, amid concerns over fiscal positions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are pressuring foreign investment flows to tend to return to dollar assets or the US market instead. On domestic factors, the flood situation is a short-term risk the market is closely monitoring, although economic research centers estimate the net impact on GDP at a limited range of about 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP. Meanwhile, as commercial banks enter the third-quarter 2026 earnings announcement period, the market initially expects a slight slowdown compared with the same period last year, leaving a lack of momentum to drive the index sharply higher. The investment strategy therefore recommends Buy on Dip to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks in 3 main themes: first, groups tied mainly to domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; second, groups benefiting from the flood situation, from emergency stockpiling of essential goods in the commerce group CPALL, BJC and CRC, through to demand for home repairs after the water recedes in the commerce group HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and third, groups expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by global events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, namely the tourism group ERW, CENTEL and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN and CRC.

Cloudflare shares jumped 6% in the afternoon session after the company announced that the Deno team joined its platform to simplify self-hosting Workers and Durable Objects, while Oppenheimer raised its price target on the stock to $430. Cloudflare said in a corporate blog post that the technical combination merges workerd and celld so developers can use identical primitives across multiple hosting environments. Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh officially increased the firm's valuation estimate for the cloud security and performance company. The move came alongside a broad tech sector recovery, with major equity averages moving higher on Friday as dip-buyers dismissed yesterday's OpenAI revenue concerns. Cloudflare is up 84.6% since the beginning of the year and, at $361.88 per share, has set a new 52-week high.

ZoomInfo announced a native integration with ClickUp through GTM.AI, sending its shares up 2.5% in the afternoon session. According to the BusinessWire announcement, the integration lets mutual clients bring verified company and contact data directly into ClickUp through a connector based on the Model Context Protocol, which enables software applications to exchange data and context seamlessly. The move came as technology equities broadly rebounded from a sharp sell-off sparked by concerns over artificial intelligence revenue expansion, with CNBC reporting that major equity averages moved higher at the open on Friday as market sentiment stabilized across the SaaS sector. Reuters reported that a day earlier, shares across the artificial intelligence and broader technology space had faced heightened selling pressure following an OpenAI revenue report that rattled investor confidence regarding near-term monetization, but CNBC noted the pullback proved short-lived as dip-buyers re-entered the market. After the initial pop, ZoomInfo shares cooled to $3.91, up 0.9% from the previous close.

SentinelOne shares jumped 3.5% to $26.28 after the company announced its Singularity AI SIEM security data offering was named SIEM Solution of the Year in the CyberSecurity Breakthrough Awards 2026 program. The independent awards program selected the platform for the recognition, which the company said validates its advanced threat detection capabilities. The gain came as broader indexes climbed to close a record-setting week, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 158 points, and the Nasdaq composite gaining 0.3%, according to the Associated Press. CNBC reported the market-wide momentum was driven by a rebound in artificial intelligence and SaaS equities after a sharp sell-off over AI revenue concerns a day earlier, as dip-buyers re-entered the market. SentinelOne is up 79.5% since the start of the year and set a new 52-week high at $26.28 per share.