Oracle Corporation

A growing roster of investors, strategists and industry leaders are warning that the artificial-intelligence boom may be nearing a breaking point, with concerns shifting from the debt and interest rates funding massive data centers to the technology's potential for catastrophic harm. Ray Dalio said the bubble is nearing the point where it may burst because rising interest rates and increased borrowing to fund the AI infrastructure buildout create a need for cash, while strategist Joachim Klement said his core conviction is that the AI bubble will burst in 2027 or 2028. Michael Burry has taken short positions against Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, Micron and CoreWeave, arguing that enormous capital spending might not translate into durable returns, and Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz called it the biggest bubble of our lifetime while advising investors to ride the wave. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said investors as a whole are overexcited about AI, and Sequoia's David Cahn put the annual gap between AI infrastructure spending and ecosystem revenue at nearly $600 billion, saying the bubble is reaching a tipping point. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slowing the pace of AI model improvements, with OpenAI's Sam Altman and SpaceX founder Elon Musk agreeing, after Anthropic insider Evan Hubinger put his personal estimate of the probability that AI could kill all humans at more than 10% within the next decade.

Global debt issuance tied to artificial intelligence fell to $23bn in September, nearly half the amount raised the previous month, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley covering both public bonds and private placements. New financing has declined steadily since the market peaked in June, when companies raised a record $113bn for infrastructure including data centres and chips, and in the US investment-grade market, where blue-chip tech groups borrowed around $306bn between January and August, AI-related bond issuance ground to a halt last month. Morgan Stanley attributed the decline primarily to the volume of debt already raised earlier in the year, but investors are also increasingly concerned about whether such heavy investment can pay off and about growing political opposition to data centre construction. An estimated $466bn of AI-linked debt has been raised by companies in 2026 so far, up from $101bn for the same period last year, and the shift in sentiment is set to test upcoming deals, including a $60bn financing package Wall Street banks are assembling for Broadcom and Anthropic and SpaceX's talks to raise $40bn to purchase Nvidia chips. About $18bn of loans tied to Oracle's New Mexico data centre campus, known as Project Jupiter, were privately quoted at around 85 cents on the dollar in recent days after Oracle issued a force majeure notice when the site struggled to gain access to electricity.

Oracle is trucking natural gas directly to its data centers to keep construction on schedule, a stopgap measure it is considering for a build in New Mexico where a needed gas pipeline is delayed. The company is already running 30 trucks a day to data centers outside Salt Lake City, according to Bloomberg reporting. Oracle did not respond to requests for comment, but later posted on social media praising the partner helping it carry out the effort. The news added to pressure on Oracle shares, which had already been sliding amid confusion over OpenAI's ARR figure, though the stock was up almost 5% on the day. Analysts said the move signals the delays are more significant than the market expected, since trucking gas is a measure normally reserved for remote mining or temporary industrial operations.

Scality has introduced the AI Inference Factory, an open-code software stack that lets enterprises run AI inference on their own infrastructure. The offering is positioned as an alternative to cloud-based AI services, giving organizations more predictable costs, greater control over AI model management, and data sovereignty. The stack brings together components for managing AI workloads with flexibility across models, hardware, and software, addressing cost, data security, and regulatory compliance challenges enterprises face as they scale AI in production. In other trading, Sangfor Technologies rose 8.6% to close at CN¥138.96, while Hut 8 fell 10.9% to close at $79.59. Alphabet settled at $348.29, down 0.6%, after Google announced a strategic partnership with Unity to launch an AI-driven gaming platform later this year; Microsoft settled at $522.61, down 1.3%; and Oracle finished at $135.69, down 5.5%, after UiPath Test Cloud became available on Oracle Marketplace three days ago.

OpenAI's annualized revenue is running at roughly $50 billion, about $20 billion below the $68 billion figure that circulated in September after multiple outlets reported it as fact, and the gap is a measurement difference rather than a demand shortfall. The $68 billion figure came from a September 29 report traced to Axios and Reuters that appears to have used a gross revenue methodology counting the full dollar value flowing through OpenAI's cloud partnerships, including the portion passed through to infrastructure partners like Microsoft Azure, while OpenAI reports net revenue excluding those pass-through costs. On October 8, the Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualized revenue was running at approximately $50 billion at the end of September, a figure CNBC confirmed the same day, with OpenAI's own disclosures to investors showing 77% total revenue growth and 107% enterprise revenue growth in Q3. The market did not wait for methodology clarification: Oracle fell 5%, with its $300 billion five-year cloud commitment to OpenAI representing roughly 45% of remaining performance obligations, Nvidia dropped 2.94% to $230.48, CoreWeave fell 8% amid insider selling reports and $3 billion in convertible debt overhang, and the Nasdaq 100 shed 300 points in thirty minutes on Thursday afternoon. Analyst consensus has converged on the word overblown, since the methodology difference does not change the fundamental demand trajectory, but the episode highlights how concentrated AI infrastructure valuations remain on a narrow set of demand assumptions from a small number of very large buyers.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, assesses that the Thai stock market has a chance of a temporary short-term recovery, supported by the yield on 10-year US government bonds falling from 5.34% to 5.23%, together with the WTI crude oil price easing to near 91 US dollars per barrel after President Donald Trump signalled that he would not yet take military action against Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November 2026. Meanwhile, the auction of 22 billion US dollars of 30-year US government bonds drew strong interest, with a bid-to-cover ratio as high as 2.54 times, above the historical average of 2.41 times. However, ASPS still advises investors to be cautious about long-term volatility, because senior Federal Reserve officials are still signalling a tight monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to the 2% target. It expects US September CPI inflation to rise to plus 3.6% year on year, from plus 3.4% in the previous month. On the AI hardware stock front, the sector faced short-term profit-taking, led by CoreWeave down 8%, Oracle down 6%, and Nvidia down 2.9%, after OpenAI reported annual revenue at the end of September of about 50 billion US dollars, below the market expectation of 68 billion US dollars, and cancelled the launch plan for its GPT-6.1 Astra model and slowed its plan to list the company on the stock exchange. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, reported record-high third-quarter 2026 revenue of 1.49 trillion Taiwan dollars, above the market expectation of 1.46 trillion Taiwan dollars, driven by demand for advanced chips for AI-processing GPUs and CPUs, along with plans to raise chip production prices next year. As for the Thai stock index, it most recently fell 14 points, or 0.88%, to 1,570.61 points, pressured by the transport and logistics group, which dropped 2.80% after news of preparations to collect three tourist fees and taxes totalling 2,570 baht, combined with concerns over the September consumer confidence index, which fell for the first time in four months amid the flood crisis and diesel prices surging above 40 baht per litre. ASPS recommends a strategy of catching a relief rally in domestic play, tourism, and healthcare stocks, with five standout picks: DISNEY19, which is entering the high season for fourth-quarter earnings on the buzz around the blockbuster film Avengers: Doomsday; AAPL80, which benefits from the upcoming launch of its first foldable-screen smartphone; Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, which has a high chance of winning the contract to operate the southern Purple Line electric train, combined with third-quarter 2026 earnings that are expected to hit the year's peak; Com Seven Public Company Limited, or COM7, whose third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow more than 30% year on year; and Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, whose second-half revenue from foreign patients is trending strongly higher, led by patients from the Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates.

Oracle shares fell 5.7% in the afternoon session after reports that annualized revenue for key AI customer OpenAI came in below previous public estimates. According to CNBC, OpenAI told investors it reached roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, well below the $68 billion run rate circulated late last month; the higher figure included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, an accounting choice meant to ease comparisons with rival Anthropic. The Financial Times first reported the $50 billion figure, which was shared in an investor presentation as OpenAI seeks to justify its $852 billion valuation ahead of a potential 2027 initial public offering. The downward revision in core AI revenue sparked a broad sell-off across artificial intelligence-linked equities, pressuring Oracle as investors reassessed the growth trajectory of the cloud infrastructure ecosystem. Oracle is down 30.8% since the start of the year and, at $135.33 per share, trades 56.8% below its 52-week high of $313 from October 2025.

The rush to finance artificial intelligence is rattling investors in the more than $10 trillion US corporate market, sparking a repricing of risk around the biggest technology companies that is showing up in spiking credit insurance prices, heightened volatility and weakening performance. Heavyweights including Oracle Corp., Broadcom Inc. and SpaceX are among the borrowers that priced nearly half a trillion dollars of new debt this year to pay for the infrastructure powering artificial intelligence, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and Broadcom alone may raise about $600 billion to finance computing power in the coming years. News of a wave of potential fresh financings from SpaceX and Broadcom, possibly topping $100 billion, sent credit derivatives linked to hyperscalers and chipmakers climbing to prices that suggest traders see a growing risk of default over the next five years: above 20% for Oracle, about 16% for SpaceX and more than 7% for Nvidia Corp. Broadcom's five-year CDS widened by 3 basis points to a record 136 basis points on Thursday, while the cost of guaranteeing Oracle debt against default rose about 10.5 basis points to a record close of 261 basis points, and a measure of SpaceX's credit risk traded at a record for a second straight day after reports it is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy chips from Nvidia. This year there have been nine US high-grade deals of $25 billion or above, the most ever, most of them in tech, and the US high-yield market is poised for one of its busiest years on record. Investors and portfolio managers at Allspring Global Investments, T. Rowe Price and Wavelength Capital Management warn that the growing concentration of exposure to a small group of companies tied to the same AI investment cycle creates correlated risks that may not be fully reflected in current valuations.

Oracle stock fell 5% on Thursday after OpenAI disclosed softer revenue and The Wall Street Journal reported that Oracle and other tech companies are preparing to tap debt markets to fund the AI infrastructure build-out. Oracle is reportedly in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs to arrange financing, aiming to close a deal as soon as this year in which investors would fund a separate company that buys the chips, which Oracle would then lease over time to avoid borrowing more itself; Broadcom and SpaceX were also named by the Journal as pursuing similar deals. Oracle's capital spending hit $28.5 billion in the June-to-August quarter, up from $2.3 billion in the same quarter two years earlier, and the stock is down nearly 30% this year. OpenAI's annualized revenue is reportedly $20 billion short of prior estimates, a concern for Oracle because OpenAI is one of its biggest cloud customers and Oracle's contract backlog stood at $664 billion last quarter. Oracle has nearly doubled its long-term debt to more than $160 billion over the past two years, according to Bloomberg, making it the fifth-largest borrower in the US corporate bond market, while Larry Ellison, who owns roughly 40% of Oracle, also backed Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, and Skydance took on $52 billion of additional debt last week.

Oracle reported a major cybersecurity breach in its healthcare unit affecting nearly 20 million people across the United States. Exposed data includes Social Security numbers, home addresses, and medical details for patients, with Texans making up a large share of those impacted. Regulators and state officials in Texas have begun requesting information from Oracle about incident timing, scope, and consumer notification plans. The incident raises questions about how Oracle manages sensitive information inside the large-scale software and data systems it runs for enterprise IT frameworks worldwide, and it challenges the trusted-infrastructure premise behind Oracle's push to convert its AI and cloud backlog for highly regulated customers, where remaining performance obligations of US$638b depend on long contracts turning into usage.

Tech giants have suddenly started borrowing massively to finance the chips, servers and data centers that power AI, a shift that is sending repercussions across global markets. From next to nothing in 2024, tech sector borrowing has reached around $500 billion in the nine months since January, as Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and others raise debt hand over fist, and Goldman Sachs expects a further ramp-up in 2027, to $1.2 trillion. Chris Della Fave, senior vice president at fundraising advisory firm Post Oak Group, estimates that AI now accounts for 25 percent of all corporate bond issuance, up from 4 percent two years ago, and in inflation-adjusted terms the AI sector is expected to borrow more this year than US cable operators did to build out the entire internet, or than railroad companies did during the 19th-century US rail boom. Even Meta has had to offer more than 7 percent a year, while riskier cloud data center specialists have gone above 9 percent, and the debt is starting to crowd out demand for the US government bonds that anchor the financial system, pushing up the rates Washington pays to borrow. The interest rate on 10-year US government bonds is now above 5.30 percent, its highest level since 2002, and in late September the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee warned that the risk of a sharper correction persists, with cloud specialist Oracle, carrying $125 billion in debt, sometimes seen as a bellwether for the whole AI finance complex.

Oracle Corporation has issued a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its New Mexico AI data center campus, which includes Bloom Energy Corporation's largest single fuel-cell deployment covering up to 2.45 gigawatts within a project expected to involve up to $165 billion of investment over its life. The notice is a financial protection against regulatory delays intended to defer payments if the data center is not operational by 2028, not an indication that Oracle is leaving the project as a tenant, and Oracle told Bloomberg it remains fully committed to New Mexico. Project Jupiter has already faced permitting hurdles, including the New Mexico State Land Office's rejection of pipeline permits in March and again in July, which led Oracle to replace gas turbines with Bloom fuel cells earlier this year. Bloom Energy's exposure is significant and concentrated, as Jupiter represents its single largest deployment within roughly 25 gigawatts of total pipeline visibility, and debt linked to the project has been trading below 90 cents on the dollar. Bloom Energy said its equipment is fungible and can be deployed elsewhere if Jupiter is delayed, while Oracle carries about $89 billion more debt than cash and depends on projects like Jupiter opening on time to support growth that jumps to between 35% and 43% a year.

Larry Ellison's dual role as backer of Paramount Skydance Corp. and controlling shareholder of Oracle Corp. is stirring concern on Wall Street as both companies pile on debt. Paramount took on $52 billion of additional debt this week to help pay for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., while Oracle has nearly doubled its long-term debt to more than $160 billion over the past two years as it builds out AI computing capacity, making it the fifth-largest borrower in the US corporate bond market. The cost to insure the debt of both companies against default has converged and is increasingly moving in lock-step, a sign investors are beginning to treat the two credits as intertwined. Ellison, 82, is backstopping Paramount's takeover of Warner Bros., spearheaded by his son David, via a family trust that guaranteed a significant portion of the roughly $47 billion of equity financing for the deal, and the family pledged to take all necessary steps to bring leverage down in the coming years. His fortune has plummeted by almost $200 billion over the past year, though he is still worth roughly $192 billion, and he recently canceled a plan to sell billions of dollars worth of Oracle stock and disclosed he had increased the number of shares pledged as collateral for personal loans. S&P cut Oracle to BBB- in July and lowered Paramount's issuer credit rating to BB last month, and Oracle shares have fallen more than 50% over the past year.

Oracle Corp. shares fell 1.8% Wednesday after infrastructure data provider Aterio reported that the company's massive artificial-intelligence data-center project in Wisconsin faces severe delays because of a gridlocked power connection. Vantage Data Centers is building the 500-acre "Project Lighthouse" campus for Oracle in Port Washington, Wisconsin, and while physical construction is advancing rapidly, with permits secured and two of the site's four buildings already enclosed, the facility cannot run computers until the local utility, American Transmission Co., builds a new high-voltage power line. That transmission project has hit a regulatory wall: the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin recently revoked an initial approval and restarted its legal review clock after builders filed hundreds of changes to the project's scope. The reset puts Oracle at risk of missing its target to begin using the site in the second half of 2027, and under Aterio's most likely scenario meaningful power will not reach the campus until early 2028, with full power capacity possibly not arriving until April 2029 if regulators take a full year to review. The Wisconsin gridlock comes just days after Oracle warned it might delay payments on "Project Jupiter," a separate massive campus in New Mexico, citing delayed gas pipelines and pending air permits, and Oracle did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Aterio report.

Aterio published an analysis warning that Oracle's 1.3 GW Project Lighthouse data center campus in Port Washington, Wisconsin, faces material risk of missing its second-half 2027 delivery guidance, with meaningful load unlikely before mid-2028. The campus, which Vantage Data Centers is building for Oracle, cannot operate until American Transmission Company completes a new high-voltage interconnection, and that work requires approval from the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. ATC's first application spent ten months under review before the PSC revoked its completeness finding in August and closed the case, citing hundreds of post-filing scope changes, and ATC refiled in September, resetting the statutory clock under a new docket. Aterio models three timelines: an earliest legal path with partial power around October 2027 and full 1.3 GW around August 2028, a base case with partial power around December 2027 and full capacity around October 2028, and an extended review with partial power around June 2028 and full capacity around April 2029. The next milestone is the PSC's completeness decision, expected around October 19, 2026, alongside ATC's filing with grid operator MISO on a voltage-stabilizing device near the campus substation.